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The S & P 500 rebounded 4% this past week, almost clawing back all of the prior week's horrible decline. Fed watch The Fed is the big market event this week. ET: Fed rate decision Before the bell: General Mills (GIS) After the bell: Steelcase (SCS) Thursday, Sept. 19 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang's, Goldman Sachs, Jim, Huang, Lisa Su, Su, Vimal Kapur, Morgan, Brian Niccol, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, They're, Lennar, Doug Yearley, Mills, LEN, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Club, Technology, CNBC, Oracle, Devices, TAM, Apple, Honeywell, Starbucks, Barclays Global Financial Services, Fed, FedEx, homebuilder, Home Depot, Darden, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Las Vegas, U.S, America, Horton, New York City
We started buying Home Depot shares last week as a play on housing and interest rates. Our Home Depot investment thesis is all about a pickup in housing turnover, the main driver of the home improvement retailer's sales. When rates went below 6.5% toward the end of last year, he explained, there was an immediate increase in housing activity, mortgage applications, and mortgage refinance applications. Mortgage rates with a 5% handle could be on the horizon, at least that's what Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearley thinks. With these numbers, it's easy to see why Decker is optimistic that activity will normalize, and housing turnover and remodel activity will pick-up again.
Persons: Ted Decker, Doug Yearley, Yearley, Decker, Lowe's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Home Depot, Dow, Depot, Toll, Home, Management, CNBC
Following the trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 100 shares of HD, increasing its weighting in the portfolio to about 1.1% from roughly 0.56%. Rates will come down and activity should pick up after the Fed gets a few rate cuts under its belt. That, at least, is what Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearley said on "Squawk on the Street" earlier Wednesday when speaking about 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates and the luxury homebuilder's business. If Yearley is correct, then it won't be too long until mortgage rates are at a sweet spot where housing turnover really starts to pick up. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Doug Yearley, it's, Yearley, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Fed, Toll, CNBC
But what if I told you this group shrunk its share count dramatically since 2019? The numbers tell the story: Lennar now has 276 million shares outstanding, down from 318 million five years ago. Other than Toll, most of the homebuilder management teams do not emphasize this fundamental change in share count. Management has been buying hand over fist since 2019, shrinking the share count to 215 million from 264 million. My rather unassailable conclusion is pretty simple: Check the share count before you buy a stock.
Persons: PulteGroup, DR Horton, , Douglas Yearley hadn't, homebuilders, Jim Umpleby, Eaton, Dow, Cummins, Elliott, Marc Benioff, Colette Kress, Williams, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mike Blake Organizations: Federal Reserve, DR, Management, Dick's, Goods, Abercrombie, Fitch, Williams, Walmart, Caterpillar, DuPont, Marathon Petroleum, Elliott Management, Valero Energy, Pacific, Norfolk Southern, CSX, Apple, Microsoft, NFL, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: tatters, California, Sonoma, America, Williams Sonoma, San Marcos , California
The report sent investors rushing into U.S. Treasury bonds, causing yields to drop. Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury. But rates then fell sharply in November, after the CPI report for October indicated that inflation was cooling. Some suggested, albeit cautiously, that the drop in rates might be bringing buyers back to the market. Yearly was referring to a very brief rate drop in August.
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