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☆ While investors are focused on Big Tech earnings, a homebuilder gives a dire warning
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

There could be trouble ahead for consumers and the economy if interest rates don't come down, the latest financial results from D.R. "While mortgage rates have decreased from their highs earlier this year, many potential homebuyers expect rates to be lower in 2025," he said in a statement . Horton year to date The rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily . Mortgage rates are tied to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has recently spiked higher. For the fiscal fourth quarter that just ended, it reported earnings of $3.92 per share on revenue of $10 billion.

Persons: Horton, David Auld, LSEG Organizations: Wall, Mortgage News, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Toll, Pulte, KB, Home Locations: Arlington , Texas

☆ Fed rate cuts can boost this trade that's a seasonal winner, Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Tom Lee, Fundstrat's head of research, said in an Oct. 17 note to clients that the firm is opening a six-month "tactical overweight" on the homebuilding sector. The six-month timeline counts on a strong seasonal pattern where homebuilders tend to rally from late October to late April. While the reason for the historical trend is not clear, the fact that it currently coincides with a rate-cutting cycle for the Federal Reserve should lend homebuilders' stocks even more support, Lee said. "The Fed is cutting interest rates, at a time when U.S. housing has been in a recession. The sector exchange-traded funds highlighted by Lee include the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) , the SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) and the Invesco Building & Construction ETF (PKB) .

Persons: Tom Lee, Fundstrat's, Lee Organizations: Federal, Home, Construction Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed goes big — a nice jumpstart to lowering mortgage rates and boosting housing plays
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed was widely expected to lower short-term interest rates, but the 25 basis points versus 50 debate raged right up until the announcement. Mortgage rates: We talked last week during our September Monthly Meeting about how housing activity can start to pick up when mortgage rates fall off their cycle highs to somewhere in the range between 5% and 6.5%. However, what the data shows is how sensitive activity is to every dip in mortgage rates. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Stanley Black, Decker, Mortgage Banks, Jim Cramer's, Lisa Su, Oliver Garden, Jim Organizations: CNBC, ., Federal Reserve, Stanley, Mortgage, Micro, LongHorn, Darden, Jim Cramer's Charitable

☆ Homebuilder stocks are 'priced for perfection,' investors needs to see lower rates driving demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks in the firm's coverage universe have "significantly front-loaded expected rate cut benefits, well in excess of prior fed cycles," he said. The chances of a smaller 25 basis point cut have fallen to a 41% chance. Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley is watching the data very closely as well and said a lot will depend on how consumers react as mortgage rates fall. Bouley said this is one of the clearest signs yet that a recent decline in mortgage rates is bringing buyers into the market. Slightly more than half the analysts who cover the stock rate it a buy or overweight, it said.

Persons: Mike Dahl, Dahl, Toll, Taylor Morrison, Matthew Bouley, Bouley, Horton Organizations: Federal Reserve, RBC Capital Markets, Tri, Tri Pointe Homes, Toll, RBC, KB, Barclays Locations: Tri Pointe, staving, Horton

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Moderna, Uber, Boeing, Adobe and more
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oracle — The stock rose nearly 2% after the database software company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook . Uber — Shares of the ride-sharing company advanced more than 5% following news that it plans to expand its partnership with Alphabet's Waymo . Adobe — Shares tumbled 9% after the software company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter. Unity Software — Shares of the game engine company added nearly 7%. Discovery — Shares advanced about 9% after the media conglomerate entered an early renewal agreement with Charter Communications.

Persons: Kevin Clark, RH —, Gary Friedman, Alphabet's Waymo, Uber, Stifel, Biden, David Zaslav, —, Jesse Pound, Sean Conlon, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: JPMorgan, Oracle, Aptiv, — Stock, Adobe, Boeing, Unity, Holdings, PDD Holdings, Redfin Corporation, Federal Reserve, U.S, Home, Warner Bros, —, Charter Communications, Discovery Locations: U.S, Austin , Texas, Atlanta, China

☆ This real estate ETF is breaking out after going nowhere for a long time, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Real Estate Select Sector ETF (XLRE) is the worst performing sector ETF in 2024, up about 3.5% right now. The ETF is net-flat going all the way back to September '22. But, it has been the best sector ETF in July, with a monthly gain of nearly 8%. The answer is a resounding yes… if the breakout in the SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) to new highs is any indication. And if rates are going to keep declining, then XLRE will have a strong tailwind to potentially catch up to XHB once again.

Persons: XLRE hasn't, XLRE, XHB, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Here are ways to play the real estate sector in the second half if the Fed cuts rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

If Thursday's move into real estate stocks is reflective of a bigger trend, there's still time to make winning investments in the housing sector. As big technology stocks tumbled, traders jumped into real estate-connected holdings on a hunch that the sector would benefit from a lower-rate environment. Exactly 55% of analysts rate the stock a buy, with an average price target showing shares can rise close to 15%. About 2 out of every 3 analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average price target implies shares can climb almost 20%. The average price target reflects further upside of more than 16% over the next year.

Persons: Wells, Sam Reid, Reid, Azek, Reuben Garner, Seth Sigman, Sigman Organizations: Home, CNBC Pro, CNBC, Toll, Barclays Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Kelly Evans: The cuts are coming
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Kelly Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Seeing the June CPI print with a negative sign. You can be pretty sure now that Fed rate cuts are coming. Core CPI for the past three months annualized is now running just 1.1%. In fact, core goods prices have dropped 12 out of the past 13 months in the CPI. We could actually be at a pretty nice economic inflection point right now--but only if the labor market doesn't keep slowing.

Persons: we've, we're, Julia Coronado, J.P, Morgan, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Gary Cohn, Kelly Twitter, @KellyCNBC, @realkellyevans Organizations: CPI, Treasury, Trump, CNBC, Nasdaq

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Delta Air Lines, SoundHound AI, WD-40, Tesla and more
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: Delta Air Lines — The stock fell almost 5% after the airline issued a sales growth forecast for the third quarter that came in below expectations. The company also reported an almost 30% decrease in net income for the second quarter compared to a year ago. Shares of major airline stocks American Airlines and United Airlines also fell around 4.7% and 3.7%, respectively, following the results. WD-40 reported total net sales of $155 million in the fiscal third quarter, up 9% from the year-ago period. Semiconductor names — Investors took a few chips off the table on Thursday, selling high-flying semiconductor stocks.

Persons: QuantumScape, Conagra, Lantheus, Tesla, Horton, —, Alex Harring, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Pia Singh, Tanaya Macheel, Darla Mercado Organizations: Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and United Airlines, Costco, Peugeot, Opel, Vauxhall, Lantheus Holdings, Medicare, Services, PepsiCo, Revenue, Bloomberg News, Bloomberg, Industries, Builders, Semiconductor, —, VanEck Semiconductor, Nvidia Locations: U.S, Canada, Europe

☆ A bearish bet on homebuilders that profits if the consumer starts to weaken
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Recent weakness in the homebuilders, which are dependent on the consumer, suggests that they may be heading in the direction of the discretionary sector. This suggests that XHB is likely to revisit the bottom of the trading range and potentially break below it. This weakness suggests that it will revisit the $140 support level and potentially break lower, especially as momentum has recently turned negative. So I'm going to use the June 28 weekly expiration and buy the $145/$135 put vertical at a $3.82 debit. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: XHB, DHI Organizations: DR Horton

☆ This winning sector could see even more upside once the Fed starts cutting rates, according to State Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Homebuilding stocks have reached new highs this year, and State Street's Matthew Bartolini sees more upside in store when the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates. "The thesis just comes down to economic resilience that is fueled by a strong labor market and a healthy consumer," said the managing director and head of SPDR Americas research. XHB YTD mountain Homebuilding ETF has surged more than 15% this year. The SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has rallied nearly 17% year to date and about 70% over the past year. Homebuilding stocks have also benefited from a resilient economy that is led by a healthy labor market, and they stand to gain even more in a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle.

Persons: Matthew Bartolini, Bartolini Organizations: State, Federal Reserve, SPDR, Sonoma, Products, Carlisle Companies, Builders, Fed Locations: SPDR Americas, Williams

☆ Bank of America unveils its top 10 trades for 2024, and 6 signs that would confirm a true bull market has arrived
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here are the indicators he's watching in 2024, and the trades investors should make now so that when the bull market finally arrives, they will be well-positioned to profit. Bank of America, alongside BMO, believes that the S&P 500 could beat its all-time high and soar over 5,000 next year. But in the back half of 2024, Hartnett believes the "3Cs" and the "3Ps" will combine to kick off a bull market in the "3Bs": bonds, bullion, and breadth. "Bonds can easily deliver equity-like returns in 2024," Hartnett wrote, particularly if "a weaker US economy & Fed cuts delivers cyclical decline in bond yields & US dollar (+ve gold)." Hartnett wrote that any panic policy moves could be a "catalyst for outperformance of leverage over quality, small over large, value over growth, international over US."

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, there's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Business, America's, BMO, SOX Locations: XBD, Japan, China

☆ The CIO of a hedge fund says he's betting home prices are going to drop at least 15-20% as consumers start to weaken and 'smart money' gets out of the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Daniel Bustamante, the hedge-fund CIO who won big in his short bet against shares of Carvana last year, is now betting millions of dollars that the housing market will slow significantly. Bustamante's call for home prices is an outlier in terms of where most Wall Street economists see the housing market headed. ATTOMAnother sign that things may go sour in the housing market is that institutional investors, or "smart money", has increasingly stopped buying residential properties, he said. RedfinAgain, Bustamante sees significant downside to home prices ahead. Recession warnings on Wall Street have become quieter in recent months as jobs and consumer spending data have held up.

Persons: Daniel Bustamante, DR, they'll, Bustamante, Bustamante anecdotally, ATTOM Organizations: Bustamante & Co, KB, Federal, National Locations: Carvana, Maricopa County , Arizona

☆ Final Trades: Alibaba, XHB and IBM
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinal Trades: Alibaba, XHB and IBMThe final trades of the day with the Fast Money traders.

Organizations: IBM, Fast Money

☆ Top investors say these stock sectors are 'super cheap' and Warren Buffett likes them both
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

I mean they're always kind of cheap, but they're really cheap," Link said. Housing stocks have risen sharply, with the SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) up about 23% over the past year. Both investors agreed that energy stocks could see a similar rally to housing in the years ahead. "I believe what we are seeing with homebuilders is going to happen with energy stocks in two to three years. In addition to energy stocks being cheap, they could also see fundamentals improvement if oil prices continue to rise, Link said.

Persons: Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Stephanie Link, Lee, Warren, Link Organizations: CNBC, Hightower Advisors, Berkshire, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Diamondback Energy, Exxon, Devon Energy Locations: Horton, Chevron, homebuilder

☆ Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway makes interesting bet on these homebuilders
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought shares of a few homebuilders in the last quarter, a new regulatory filing revealed. Horton shares, $70 million worth of NVR shares as well as $17.2 million worth of Lennar in the second quarter, the filing showed. These stakes are relatively small for Berkshire, whose equity portfolio is worth nearly $350 billion. Top holdings Berkshire shares just hit a record high last week on the back of strong second-quarter results. Also during the second quarter, Berkshire added to its relatively new stake in Capital One Financial , bringing it to nearly $1.4 billion.

Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Horton, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Benjamin Moore Organizations: Berkshire, Clayton Homes, Apple, American Express, Bank of America, Capital, General Motors, Chevrolet, GMC Locations: Omaha, Berkshire, McLean , Virginia

☆ Investors should avoid this stock that just hit an all-time high, Josh Brown says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A red-hot homebuilder stock just flashed a warning sign for investors, according to Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown. Horton blew away expectations for its fiscal third quarter Thursday morning, reporting $3.90 in earnings per share on $9.73 billion of revenue. The stock rose sharply at the open and set a new all-time high at $132.30, but then quickly reversed course and fell into the red for the day. Horton stock reversed course during Thursday's session. Brown said the reversal appears to be a sign D.R.

Persons: Josh Brown, D.R, Horton, Refinitiv, Brown, you've Organizations: Ritholtz Wealth Locations: Horton

☆ Homebuilder ETFs could get another boost if the Fed stops after one more rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates are tied indirectly to the Fed through the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, and could still move around while the central bank is paused. The ETFs that track the industry have already outperformed this year, rebounding from dramatic declines in 2022. The rapid Fed rate hikes last year appeared to spook consumers, who saw their future monthly payments climb sharply just while they were in the midst of searching for new homes. ITB YTD mountain Homebuilder ETFs like the ITB have outperformed in 2023. And a relatively stable interest rate outlook should make it easier for the homebuilders to hit those raised estimates, according to their own executives.

☆ Here are 6 bullish surprises that could power the stock market through the rest of this year, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There are six potential bull market surprises that could drive stocks higher, according to Bank of America. The bank highlighted the deflationary impact of ChatGPT and a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war. "Bearish sentiment + $5 trillion of cash [is] still the 'best friends forever' for risk assets, especially stocks," Hartnett said. These are the six bullish surprises that could fuel more upside in the stock market this year, according to BofA. If any of the surprises play out, it could help the economy avoid a recession or see a soft landing rather than a hard landing, according to Hartnett, ultimately boosting the stock market higher.

☆ An earnings recession plagues investors' minds as reporting season approaches
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There may not be a recession yet, but there is certainly an earnings recession. What Treasury yields are saying Treasury yields resumed falling last week in response to the weaker data. Earnings season Speaking of earnings, first quarter earnings season start this week, with earnings for the S & P 500 expected to decline 5.2%, according to Refinitiv. That's an earnings recession. You have to go back to Q1-Q3 of 2020 to see three consecutive quarters of earnings decline.

☆ Buy these ETFs if you believe the Fed will pivot to a slower tightening pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

That means that market rates could fall, even if the Fed continues to hike for the next few months. Bond yields move opposite of price, so the ETFs should go up in value. There are several large ETFs on the market focused on Treasurys, including the iShares' 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) . Similarly, Vanguard offers the Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) , which has a fee of just 0.04%. Corporate bonds carry more risk than Treasurys, but should rally if Treasury yields fall.

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