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A flurry of remarkably good economic news over the past week could create a daunting mandate for whoever is elected the next U.S. president: Don't mess it up. The whole damn world," President Joe Biden said Tuesday during an event announcing new infrastructure grants at the Port of Baltimore. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are both pitching themselves as the best steward of the future health of the U.S. economy. Trump has pledged universal tariffs on all imports from all countries, a sweeping immigrant deportation program, deepening corporate tax cuts and more. Economists and even some of Trump's own allies note that his proposed universal tariffs, mass deportations and tax cuts could, at least temporarily, send major shockwaves through the economy, triggering potential market crashes.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Harris, Trump, Trump's, Justin Wolfers, Barack Obama, Biden, Wolfers, you've Organizations: Macomb Community College, Democratic, U.S, Port, Trump, University of Michigan, Republican Locations: Warren , Michigan, U.S, Atlanta , Georgia, Port of Baltimore, America

☆ A radical idea to solve inflation from a radical former Fed pick
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

A zero percent inflation target might be popular, but it would represent a sharp departure – one that mainstream economists warn would backfire. “Stable inflation is an oxymoron because it means it’s not stable,” Shelton told CNN in a recent interview. In fact, one reason the Fed set its inflation target at 2% is because it’s safely away from that deflation-danger zone. A zero inflation target would mean a path right on the edge. But even some of Shelton’s biggest fans are opposed to her embrace of a zero-inflation target.

Persons: Judy Shelton, Donald Trump, It’s, ” Shelton, Shelton, Trump, ”, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Justin Wolfers, Kamala Harris, it’s, Wolfers, Bill English, “, ” Trump, Stephen Moore, Jerome Powell, Moore, Powell, Kevin Hassett, Reagan, Arthur Laffer, ” Moore, CNN’s KFile, CNN he’s, he’d, Elon, ‘, haven’t, James Grant Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, Federal Reserve Board, Moody’s, University of Michigan, Yale University, Heritage Foundation, Trump White House, Trump Locations: New York

☆ Taxes, tariffs, debt: Debating America's economic future
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTaxes, tariffs, debt: Debating America's economic futureJay Clayton, Apollo independent chair and former SEC chairman, and Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan Ford School public policy and economics professor, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the tax system in the U.S., and more.

Persons: Jay Clayton, Apollo, Justin Wolfers Organizations: SEC, University of Michigan Ford School Locations: U.S

Nonfarm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points. "It was a very good report across every indicator in there," said Aaron Sojourner, a senior researcher at the W.E. As they barnstorm across battleground states, Harris and Trump paint dueling pictures of the U.S. labor market. Jim Watson | AFP | Getty ImagesThe jobs report adds to a flurry of good economic news in recent weeks, with metrics that could potentially amount to the best economic upswing in decades. Following the jobs report blowout, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out last week at a fresh all-time high of 42,352.75.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, payrolls, Dow, Aaron Sojourner, Harris, Trump, Jim Watson, I've, Mark Zandi, Biden, Clinton, Justin Wolfers, stoking Organizations: . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, Trump, CBS, Republican, Ryder Center for Health, Physical Education, Saginaw Valley State University, AFP, Getty, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, chipmaker Micron Technology, Oracle Locations: U.S, Michigan, America, Saginaw, Saginaw , Michigan

☆ Good news: The ‘hard landing’ forecasters got it wrong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But as we wind down 2024, one thing appears clear: The naysayers on Team Hard Landing got it wrong. The “soft landing” versus “hard landing” metaphor — perhaps overused but visually handy — refers to the economy as an airplane and the Fed as the pilot. Pull the right levers at the right time, and you get a nice comfortable soft landing, with inflation cooling and the labor market thriving. He was far from alone in thinking that a soft landing was little more than a fantasy. “We should just drop the soft landing versus hard landing discourse and start talking about a robust expansion at mid-cycle,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Schwab Network in an interview.

Persons: CNN Business ’, everyone’s, ”, Sung Won Sohn, we’d, ” Aaron, “, there’s, Justin Wolfers, Bill Dudley, “ I’ve, Dudley, Larry Summers, they’re, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Loyola Marymount University, Fed, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, ICYMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg, RSM, Schwab Network Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Over 400 economists and ex-officials endorse Kamala Harris
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —More than 400 economists and former high-ranking US policymakers are endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris and her vision for the American economy, according to a document announcing the endorsement seen by CNN. “The choice in this election is clear: between failed trickle-down economic policies that benefit the few and economic policies that provide opportunity for all,” the endorsement document reads. Harris plans to roll out new policies on what she calls the “opportunity economy” during a speech in Pennsylvania, another key battleground state, on Wednesday. Several notable economists threw their weight behind Harris, including University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers and Claudia Goldin, who won the Nobel Prize last year for tracking women’s labor participation and the evolving wage gap. The endorsement argued that Harris has a “proven track record of economic leadership,” crediting her with efforts as vice president to lower costs, cut taxes and raise wages.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Donald Trump’s, Brian Deese, Obama, Jason Furman, Bill Daley, Penny Pritzker, Clinton, Robert Reich, Alan Blinder, Donald Trump, ”, Trump, Sean O’Keefe, George W, Justin Wolfers, Claudia Goldin, Marty Walsh, Deval Patrick, Larry Summers, Robert Rubin, Mark Cuban, James Murdoch, he’s, Bill Ackman, Peter Thiel, Tesla, Elon Musk, ” Harris, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Sonnenfeld Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Federal Reserve, Management, NASA, University of Michigan, House, Labor, Massachusetts Gov, Democratic, JPMorgan Chase, JPMorgan, Wall Street, Trump, Yale, That’s Locations: New York, Georgia, Pennsylvania, United States, America, Dimon

☆ An across-the-board tariff gives us no strategic leverage at all, says Justin Wolfers
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAn across-the-board tariff gives us no strategic leverage at all, says Justin WolfersJustin Wolfers, University of Michigan professor of public policy and economics, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the impacts of tariffs on the economy and the consumer, how to induce more manufacturing in the U.S., whether there are instances to implement tariffs, and more.

Persons: Justin Wolfers Justin Wolfers Organizations: University of Michigan Locations: U.S

☆ What Trump and Harris’ economic proposals mean for you
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Here’s a look at what could happen to inflation, jobs and the deficit if Trump or Harris win in November. That, among other things, would keep the top tax rate individuals pay at 37% compared to 39.6% before it went into effect. Meanwhile, the tax proposals Harris has put forth so far mostly involve imposing higher taxes, which would have a positive impact on the deficit. For instance, she’s endorsed raising the top individual income tax rate to 44.6% and the top long-term capital gains tax rate to 28% versus the current 20%. Taken together, the Penn Wharton Budget model estimates Harris’ proposals could increase the deficit by an additional $1.2 trillion by 2034.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Trump, Warwick McKibbin, Goldman, she’s, ”, Justin Wolfers, Kevin Dietsch, He’s, Elon Musk, She’s, Joshua Gotbaum Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Gross, University of Michigan, CNN, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Wharton Budget, Social Security, Penn, Wharton Budget Model, Penn Wharton Budget, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, United States, Penn

☆ Harris and Trump both hate inflation. Their economic proposals could cause prices to go higher
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-19 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Both candidates’ plans would probably raise the deficit and increase demand, including through government spending and tightening the labor market, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told CNN via email. Trump has so far not released as detailed an economic plan as Harris. Risks of fueling demandA central part of Harris’ economic plan is making housing more affordable. “The problem right now is too many people chasing too few houses,” Justin Wolfers, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, told CNN. Economists have told CNN that businesses would be forced to raise wages and prices.

Persons: what’s, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Harris ’, ” Marc Goldwein, ” Goldwein, “, ”, Biden, Joe Biden, ” Justin Wolfers, Michelle Holder, Holder, …, ’ Trump, ” Harris Organizations: CNN, RSM, Budget, Child Tax, “, Federal Reserve, Tax Foundation, Social Security, University of Michigan, John Jay College, Center, American Progress Fund, Peterson Institute for International Economics, National Guard Locations: ”, New York, China

☆ America’s Irrational Macreconomic Freak Out - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Justin Wolfers | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

I, too, know that flash of resentment when grocery store prices feel like they don’t make sense. I hate the fact that a small treat now feels less like an earned indulgence and more like financial folly. Simple economic logic suggests that neither your well-being nor mine depends on the absolute magnitude of the numbers on a price sticker. A gumball costs $2.50 instead of a quarter; the dollar store is the $10 store; and a coffee is $50. The 10-dollar bill in your wallet is now $100; and your bank statement has transformed $800 of savings into $8,000.

☆ Why Biden’s strong economy feels so bad to most Americans
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

By almost any objective measure, Americans are doing much better economically than they were nearly three years ago, when President Joe Biden took office. Inflation hangoverSharply higher prices in 2021 and 2022 marked a painful economic moment for households around the world. The partisan gapCNN’s latest poll shows that Republicans and Democrats are both souring on President Biden’s handling of the economy. “People are no longer telling us how they feel about the economy — really, they’re telling us how they feel about the president,” Wolfers said. Either way, that poses a political problem for President Biden, whose re-election campaign has sought to highlight the economy’s strengths.

Persons: New York CNN —, Joe Biden, SSRS, “, There’s, ”, Justin Wolfers, Wolfers, That’s, ” Wolfers, you’d, ” Morgan Stanley, Jamie Kelter Davis, Carola Binder, —, Biden, It’s, Biden’s, David Axelrod, — CNN’s Matt Egan Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, University of Michigan, P Global Market Intelligence, Atlanta, Bloomberg, Getty, United, Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haverford College, Biden, “, White House Locations: New York, Wolfers, United States, Ukraine

☆ The case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Many CEOs, investors and economists had penciled in 2023 as the year when a recession would hit the American economy. But the case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling for a simple reason: America’s jobs market is way too strong. Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won’t be the year when a downturn will begin. “We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN. Friday’s jobs report did offer some conflicting signals, especially in the household survey, which economists put less weight on because it tends to be noisier.

Persons: Mark Zandi, won’t, ” Zandi, “, Justin Wolfers, “ We’ve, payrolls, Wolfers, They’ve, ” Wolfers, ” Macy’s, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Moody’s, CNN, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Challenger, RSM Locations: New York, ”

☆ Analysis: Bank failures and looming debt default test American confidence in the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —Two converging crises are testing American confidence in their financial well-being. And there’s a debt crisis, which is becoming more urgent as the US approaches the “X-date” – when it would default – and on which opposing lawmakers aren’t currently talking to each other. First Republic Bank was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Monday, and most of its assets were sold to JPMorgan Chase. Maintaining confidenceNone of that means this is a golden chapter for the American financial system. Now, the debt crisis and the X-dateIf only American lawmakers could take a cue from the First Republic saga and get into a room to solve the debt crisis.

☆ New cars are crazy expensive but, if you’re careful, they don’t have to be
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Peter Valdes-Dapena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Yet the average sticker for base models, adjusted for inflation, has actually gone down a little — even as consumers have shifted from sedans to more expensive SUVs. That’s good news for drivers willing to go no-frills: If you don’t want to pay lots of a new car, you don’t have to. It has a base price of $15,730. These base price models may not make much money, if any, for automakers. The average price of a GMC Sierra 2500 HD, as sold, is now double the base price.

☆ It's time to chill with al the recession talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —In 2021, a bunch of economists and policy makers underestimated the inflation that was taking root around the world. In 2022, as inflation hit 40-year-highs and the Fed ramped up interest rates, many of those commentators went full-on gloomy — predicting a recession was all but inevitable. And that makes it hard, if not impossible, to imagine a recession anytime soon. “Any concern the economy is in recession or close to a recession should be completely dashed by these numbers,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN on Friday. “The economy is further away from recession than ever,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.

☆ 3 key takeaways from the jaw-dropping January jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Earlier this week, the consensus estimate among economists was that the US economy likely added about 185,000 jobs in January. But the economy had other ideas, adding more than half a million jobs in January. Here are three key things to take away from Friday’s jobs report. The report shocked Wall Street economistsThe headlines that came at 8:30 am ET Friday left economists stunned: America added 517,000 jobs last month. Much of that speculation centered on the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, which aimed to wring inflation from the economy.

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