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Manufacturing data, inflation data, market breadth, and high rates are warning signals, he says. Bullandbearprofits.comShort-term Treasury rates remaining elevated prove the Fed is going to continue raising rates, Wolfenbarger said. The ISM PMI Manufacturing Index is currently at 46, and readings below 50 mean the economy is contracting. Bullandbearprofits.comAll of this amounts to a bearish outlook for stocks, Wolfenbarger believes. Some in the market are growing fatigued of the recession forecasts as the market surges back toward all-time-highs.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger —, Merril Lynch, Piper, Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley Wilson, there's Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Bull, CPI, Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan, PMI
Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.
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