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☆ Analysis: US stock market technicals suggest possible rebound as earnings, CPI loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 has slid about 5% since reaching its late-July high, but so far this month the benchmark index has rebounded. In 12 of those times the S&P 500 was higher six months later, Turnquist said. Reuters GraphicsStocks have tended to perform well at year end -- with November and December logging the second and third-biggest average S&P 500 monthly gains -- though this year the trends may portend even more favorably. That was followed by a 28% rally in the S&P 500 through late July of this year. Further, notes Delwiche, stock market breadth has been weak.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Willie Delwiche, Delwiche, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Thursday’s U.S, Ned, Ned Davis Research, LPL, Reuters Graphics, American, of, Mount Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Less cash, fewer bears could leave U.S. stocks vulnerable
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The upshot, some believe, is that there is now less cash on the sidelines to drive further gains and fewer skeptical investors to win over. The bank’s survey of fund managers showed cash allocations dropped to 4.8% in August, the lowest level in 21 months. Bearishness among retail investors, meanwhile, is at half the levels seen in September 2022, according to the AAII Sentiment Survey. Should the market stabilize, investors will likely reallocate more cash to stocks later in the year, she said. Of course, while optimism has grown, it is still far from extreme, and cash levels are far from historical lows.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, that’s “, Willie Delwiche, Quincy Krosby, Steve Chiavarone, Chiavarone, ”, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, BofA Global Research, Mount Research, Federal, U.S ., China Evergrande, HK, U.S, LPL, Federated Hermes, Thomson Locations: New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

The 15% year-to-date rally in the S&P 500 (.SPX) is pulling once doubtful investors back into the market. Meanwhile, options investors are buying calls - bets on upside in stocks - at levels not seen in years. A record 1.8 million S&P 500 calls traded on Thursday, helping lift the one-month moving average of calls-to-puts to the highest in at least four years, Trade Alert data showed. The S&P 500 has posted a median gain of 18% in the 12 months after clearing the 20% threshold, LPL Financial data showed. One encouraging signal is that a greater number of S&P 500 stocks are heading higher, in addition to the handful of megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) that led gains this year.

Persons: you've, Emily Roland, Goldman Sachs, Willie Delwiche, we're, Delwiche, Brent Kochuba, Matt Stucky, Ken Mahoney, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, National Association of Active Investment, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Trade, John Hancock Asset Management, Mount Research, American Association of, Investors, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Microsoft, Nvidia, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Apple is bigger than the whole market for small caps again. Here's what it means for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The combined value of all of Apple 's shares is greater than the entirety of an index comprised of 2,000 small stocks. That's bigger than the combined market cap of all 2,000 stocks in the small cap-focused Russell 2000 , which was at $2.208 trillion. "It is apples to oranges — or small caps," said Willie Delwiche, founder of Hi Mount Research. DeSanctis also noted the overhang of the debt ceiling could add further pressure to small caps, given their underperformance in 2011. "If something goes right for small cap or the overall market, small can have a really nice bounce," he said.

Though stocks remain near their 2023 highs, some investors now believe those factors will soon start taking a greater toll, limiting further upside. The market may be "back in the soup on the banking crisis," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. Many investors don’t expect that calm to continue, as a battle over raising the $34 trillion U.S. debt ceiling looms. In the six rate-hiking cycles since 1984, the S&P 500 has posted an average three-month return of 8% following the peak funds rate, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote. However, the S&P 500 is already trading well above its valuation at the end of any cycle except the one ending in 2000, when the S&P 500 declined despite a Fed pause, the bank said.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Strength in megacap stocks masks broader U.S. market woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A recent pullback in U.S. bond yields, whose ascent punished growth stocks last year, is also buoying their prices in 2023. Megacaps' growing market capitalization means indexes such as the S&P 500 are increasingly driven by a smaller cluster of stocks. The weight of the top five S&P 500 companies has rebounded to 21.7% from 18.8% for the top five stocks at the end of 2022. The S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) is down 7.5% since March 8, while the industrials sector (.SPLRCI) is off 5%. In turn, he said, that likely means "the big-cap growth stocks will be the ones who lead from here."

Among these are equities’ positive January performance, a "golden cross" chart pattern on the S&P 500 and more stocks making new highs rather than new lows. Such signals are far from the only indicators market participants use to make investment decisions, and they are not foolproof. JANUARY JUMPThe S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, driven in part by hopes that the Fed will be able to contain surging inflation without badly damaging the economy. GOLDEN CROSSMeanwhile, chart watchers noted that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a pattern known as a golden cross. However, when a golden cross has appeared as the 200-day moving average is declining - as it is now - the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 jumps to 16.8%.

☆ The individual investor is pessimistic. Here is what that means for the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The percentage of investors feeling bearish about the stock market is reaching levels last seen during the Great Recession, according to a weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors. It's the fifth time the percentage of bearish respondents broke that 60% threshold since data began being collected in 1987. Before that, the percentage of bearish investors hit this level at two points in 1990. A high number of bearish investors, for example, means that many have already sold. The number of bears rose to 31.4% from 28.2% last week, Investors Intelligence found.

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