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Ms. Harris starts out with 226 likely electoral votes compared with 219 for Mr. Trump, with 93 votes up for grabs. Scenario 6 Or by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Georgia … Or by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Georgia … Scenario 7 … or North Carolina. Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump have been campaigning hard and often there, and Democrats hope that the favorable governor’s race could help them. Scenario 5 … like Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin … … like Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin … Scenario 6 … or Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The Harris campaign is taking a similar approach, focusing on white college-educated women, who currently favor Ms. Harris by 29 points.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Harris, immovably, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Biden, Trump, Trump’s, Harris –, Trump’s resiliency, Harris’s, William Frey, Michael Dukakis, Josh Shapiro, JD Vance, Mr, Bill McInturff, there’s, , Joe Rogan’s, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton Organizations: Trump, Electoral, Democrats, Republicans, Democratic, Mr, Sun, Electoral College, NBC, Black, Brookings Institution, Michigan, , Republican, Biden Locations: Virginia, Minnesota, Georgia, Arizona , Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wis, Mich, Pa, Nev, N.C, Ariz . Ga, Ariz ., Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin . Pennsylvania, , … Georgia, Arizona , Michigan, Pennsylvania , Michigan
He also found that women will comprise nearly 52% of all eligible voters, which should help Harris. (North Carolina is the sole swing state where he found that they had increased as a portion of eligible voters since 2020.) The groups that Harris needs to give her winning margins are the non-White and college-educated White voters (especially women in each case). “I think Gen Z women, including White women, are very committed to an inclusive democracy,” she said. But this history clearly shows it is likely that the changes in the composition of the eligible electorate Frey has documented will closely track the shifts in the configuration of the actual electorate.
Persons: CNN —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, demographer William Frey, Frey, Whites, Liz Cheney, Trump, Ronald Reagan, Reagan, Harris, Harris ’, Trump’s, don’t, , Manuel Pastor, Pastor, , White, she’s, Joe Biden, Biden, Patrick Ruffini, Republican pollster, “ Trump, ” Ruffini, Gen, millennials, Melissa Deckman, ” Deckman, Michael McDonald, McDonald, Barack Obama, NORC, Catalist Organizations: CNN, GOP, White, Trump, Whites, Keystone State, Harris, Metro, Nevada . College, Equity Research, University of Southern, Republican, “ Party of, Religion Research Institute, College, University of Florida, Center for American Women, Rutgers University, Rutgers Center, Pew Research, Democratic, Pew, Edison Research Locations: Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, In Michigan, In Pennsylvania, Arizona , Georgia, North Carolina . Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, University of Southern California, , , , White, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Trump
Those working-class White women loom as a critical, potentially even decisive, factor in Trump’s third White House bid. But while White women with a college degree have trended toward the Democrats in the presidential campaigns since then, the White women without a college degree have moved sharply in the opposite direction. She acknowledges that Trump’s alarms have resonated among working-class White women, especially older ones. Not only college-educated White women, but also the equivalent White men were much more likely than the blue-collar White women to express positive views about Harris and negative ones about Trump, Gallup found. “I think there is a lot of implicit [gender] bias with” these working-class White women, Lake said.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Joe Biden’s, it’s, Harris, Harris doesn’t, , Lake, , Evelyn Hockstein, Reuters “, Bradley Beychok, Beychok, gee, ” Beychok, Donald Trump, Roe, Wade, Bill Clinton, George W, Bush, Al Gore, Chip Somodevilla, Barack Obama’s, Hillary Clinton, Clinton, Biden, – Harris, ” Lake, Republican pollster Christine Matthews, William Frey, ” Trump, Julia Demaree Nikhinson, , Jackie Payne, Payne, pollsters, Jon McHenry, McHenry, Joe Biden, Mathews, Matthews, Vance, ” Matthews, White, Gallup Organizations: CNN, White, Electoral, Democrats, Trump, Democratic, PAC, Reuters, American, Republican, Edison Research, Pew Research, Michigan, Quinnipiac University, Marquette Law School, Metro, Dodge, Airport, Biden, New York Times, , Times, Gallup Poll, Gallup Locations: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Flint , Michigan, Reading , Pennsylvania, Southern, Philadelphia, Juneau , Wisconsin, Siena, White, Wilkes, Barre , Pennsylvania
Trump won the presidency in 2016 by stunning Democrat Hillary Clinton to win all three states by a combined margin of about 80,000 votes. But, as in other states, Democrats have been concerned about the risk of depressed turnout and some gains for Trump among Black voters in Philadelphia. Eight years later, the two states split again, when Roosevelt comfortably won Pennsylvania and Michigan narrowly went to Republican Wendell Willkie. This trio of states has arguably become the most consistent tipping point in American politics. In the nine elections since 1920 when they split their vote, the candidate who carried two of these three states won seven times.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump –, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Harris, Bob Shrum, Shrum, Tad Devine, , Biden, PRRI, William Frey, Tim Marema, don’t, Mason, Dixon, Barack Obama, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Dane County, Ben Wikler, Pete Giangreco, , You’ve, That’s, Gene Ulm, Roe, Wade, Whitmer, Branden Snyder, It’s, Clinton, Dante Chinni, White, ” Chinni, they’ve, They’ve, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, Ruffini, “ I’m, ” Ruffini, Geoff Garin, Michael Dukakis, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, James Buchanan, John C, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover, Republican Wendell Willkie, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Theodore Roosevelt’s, Al Gore, John Kerry, Republican Thomas Dewey, Hubert Humphrey, Garin Organizations: CNN, White House, Democratic, Michigan, Wisconsin, AdImpact, Trump, Center, University of Southern, , Republicans, Survey, Blacks, of Labor Statistics, Public Religion Research, Whites, GOP, Brookings Metro, for Rural, doesn’t, Keystone State, Republican, Center for Rural, Democrats, Biden, Black, White, Wisconsin , Michigan Democrats, Detroit, Electoral, American Communities Project, , Democrat, Pennsylvania, Republican Party Locations: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina , Arizona, Nevada, Flint , Michigan, University of Southern California, California , New York, Illinois, Texas, Florida, Ohio, . Michigan, Wisconsin’s, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit, Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington, Madison, Dane, Dane County, Eau Claire, Appleton, La Crosse, Outagamie, Winnebago, Green Bay, Green, Chicago, Scranton, Wilkes, Barre, ” Michigan, “ Michigan, Gaza, Wisconsin , Michigan, United States, “ Pennsylvania, Ulm, Pittsburgh, Butler , Pennsylvania, Republican George H.W ., Fremont, North Carolina, Michigan , Pennsylvania,
In 2013, the share of self-identified liberals among young women exceeded the share among young men by 5 percentage points; by 2023, that gap was nearly four times as large. (In that survey, young men were substantially more likely than young women to say they rely on YouTube as a major source of news.) (In the Harvard poll, one-fourth of young women identified in some way as LGBTQ, more than double the share of young men.) “He’s got to make up for the defection of young men by winning young women by more, and he’s got to get every young woman he can out to vote,” said Lake, the Democratic pollster. Biden’s best hope of avoiding a catastrophic decline in his youth support is that the number of young women Trump repels exceeds the number of young men he attracts.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, John Burn, Murdoch, , Harvard University’s John F, Daniel Cox, William Frey, Melissa Deckman, Gen, , Trump, John Della Volpe, Joe Biden doesn’t, Della Volpe, White, Deckman, aren’t, Cox, Dobbs, Anna Dean, Dean, ” Della Volpe, he’s, don’t, ” Cox, “ Donald Trump, “ He’s Organizations: CNN, Trump, Biden, Pew Research Center, Financial, NBC, Democratic, Republican, GOP, Institute of Politics, Harvard University’s, Kennedy, Republican Party, Harvard, Democrats, Survey Center, American Enterprise Institute, Biden didn’t, Brookings Metro thinktank, Religion Research Institute, Biden’s, YouTube, Pew, AEI, Blacks, Harvard Poll, Biden won’t Locations: Gaza, New York, Bentonville , Arkansas, America
How Strong Is the Economy?
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
Conservatives sometimes respond to this data by trying to separate the economy from the rest of society. But I think it’s a mistake to imagine that the economy is somehow distinct from living standards. To over-generalize only somewhat, blue America believes in NIMBYism (“not in my backyard”), while red America is more comfortable with YIMBYism. That combination helps explain why our economy looks so good by some measures and so bad by others. Liberals have been hobbling government and the economy, Nicholas Bagley of the University of Michigan explained on Ezra Klein’s podcast.
Some 65% of respondents - including 46% of Republicans and 68% of independents - said they were less likely to vote for a presidential candidate in 2024 who supports laws banning or severely restricting abortion access. DeSantis last year signed a Florida law banning abortions after 15 weeks, saying the measure would protect "the rights of unborn children." The online Reuters/Ipsos poll had a credibility interval of between around two and four percentage points. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found 61% of respondents nationwide, including 66% of independents, prefer a candidate who opposes allowing medical treatment for minors related to gender identity. Reuters GraphicsThe Reuters/Ipsos poll found that nationwide, women were more likely than men to oppose severe abortion restrictions and permitless concealed guns.
For other states to compete, they will need to pay attention to what Florida is doing right. Floridians pay no income tax and fewer taxes overall than people in states like New York, California, or Massachusetts. But a low tax rate isn't the only thing people care about. Despite having a budget half the size of New York's and a larger population, Florida, by many metrics, is able to do significantly more with the taxes it collects. Florida is also outshining New York and other major population centers in tackling the soaring cost of housing.
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