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Investors are currently reveling in the 'better', as an ongoing eight-month melt-up once again pushed the S&P 500 to fresh highs this week. But sooner or later, the 'worse' will come, warns David Rosenberg, the founder of Rosenberg Research, who famously called the 2008 recession while working as Merrill Lynch's chief economist. AdvertisementAnother sign the market is out over its skis is the performance divergence between the market cap-weight and the equal-weighted S&P 500 indexes. On June 12, the Dow underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.94%, one of only 71 trading days since 1982 where that's happened, according to Rosenberg's technical analysis consultant, Walter Murphy. AdvertisementIn addition to concerning market technicals, fundamentals could also be in a troubling place in the form of labor market weakness, Rosenberg said.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Rosenberg, Bob Farrell, Walter Murphy, Murphy, — Rosenberg, it's, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Tech, Dow Jones, Dow, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Federal Locations: lockstep
Chris Nardone, a top-ranked analyst at Bank of America, shares his top stock picks. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementWhen Chris Nardone started working at Bank of America out of college in 2013, he wasn't even in the firm's equity research department. Working initially as a risk analyst, he knew he wanted to shift gears and eventually stepped into a research analyst role after listening in on the team's daily calls.
Persons: Chris Nardone, Nardone, Ralph Lauren, Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Business Locations: Asia
Investors should focus on high-quality stocks, says Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz. High-quality stocks have high profit margins, earnings growth + momentum, and stable balance sheets. High-quality healthcare stocks in the S&P 500 beat the overall index by 22% over the last year. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementPiper Sandler's Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says investors should be focusing on high-quality stocks.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz ., , Piper, Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Service, Business
Mike Kratky, 33, Leerink PartnersLeerink PartnersSector: Medical devices and technologyKratky's young career underwent a major shift in March 2020 — and it wasn't remote work. The Colgate University graduate thinks he's a better analyst for it because he now understands how readers of his research think. "The stock calls won't always go my way," Kratky said. All eight of the outperform-rated medtech stocks Leerink has covered since October have outperformed the S&P 500 and their industry index. The medtech industry is experiencing rapid change, particularly with the advent of GLP-1 drugs that treat obesity and diabetes.
Persons: Mike Kratky, Kratky, Leerink, He's, he's, Kratky's, — James Faris Organizations: Leerink Partners Leerink Partners, Nasdaq, Riley Securities, Colgate University, Tandem Diabetes Care Locations: Leerink
The last year and a half has been the best period in more than 20 years to be sitting in cash. Related stories"We know those attractive cash rates aren't going to last forever. Just as the aggressive rate hiking cycle took Treasury yields higher, interest rate cuts will eventually take all cash rates lower as well," Gillum said. And third, investors can build a bond ladder, meaning they stagger their money in different bond durations. "Bonds offer an optionality that you don't get from cash.
Persons: Lawrence Gillum, Gillum, there's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, LPL, Business, Bloomberg, Aggregate Bond, BNY Mellon, Schwab U.S, Fed
But some markets are still very affordable relative to national median cost levels. A recent SmartAsset analysis reveals 19 cities with median monthly mortgage costs under $1,200. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Business
It's been a near-frictionless seven months for the S&P 500, with the benchmark index up a cool 26% since late October. While earnings were just fine in the first quarter, if they start to decline alongside a slowing economy, stocks will go with them. He sees the S&P 500 declining by more than 50% when all is said and done. The current inversion of 580 days implies a drop of around 65% for the S&P 500. Those fears have since dissipated, and the S&P 500 has rallied 47% since October 2022.
Persons: It's, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Marko Kolanovic, Albert Edwards Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Fed, OVOM
But both inflation and economic growth have upside and downside risks relative to consensus. AdvertisementOn inflation, Arnott believes it's far more likely that it surprises to the upside. AdvertisementTo take advantage of these asymmetries in the market, Arnott said that value stocks and TIPS are two investments that would perform well in a higher-inflation environment. One way investors can gain exposure to these assets is through funds like the iShares Core S&P U.S. Value ETF (IUSV), the Schwab U.S. More specifically, value stocks within both developed and emerging markets are trading in their "cheapest decile ever" compared to growth stocks, Arnott said.
Persons: , Rob Arnott, Arnott, it's, there's, I've, I'm Organizations: Service, Treasury, Securities, Business, Research Affiliates, Federal Reserve, Value, Schwab, MLP, Funds, Equity Locations: Schwab U.S
We asked seven pro investors to identify the best trades of their careers and explain how the lessons from those decisions still apply today. The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, shot above 40, essentially meaning traders were betting that the stock market would be exceptionally rocky over the following month. Jeff Muhlenkamp, lead portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp & CompanyJeff Muhlenkamp Muhlenkamp & CompanyJeff Muhlenkamp's namesake Muhlenkamp Fund (MUHLX) has been in the top 3% of its category in the past half-decade, thanks to trades like one he pulled off on Chinese internet firm Baidu (BIDU). "I pretty much expected, 'OK, if I get a double out of this in five years, I'll be happy' — that's pretty decent money," Muhlenkamp said. He noted that industrials within the Russell Mid Cap value index have returned 116% over the previous five years.
Persons: , That's, Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Berkshire, Rob Arnott, Tim Boyle, Arnott, I'd, Bob Elliott, Bob Elliott's, Elliott, Jeff Muhlenkamp, Jeff Muhlenkamp Muhlenkamp, Jeff Muhlenkamp's, Muhlenkamp, you've, Sona Menon, Cambridge Associates Sona Menon, Bryant VanCronkhite, Allspring Bryant VanCronkhite Allspring Bryant VanCronkhite, VanCronkhite, Russell, industrials, James Davolos, Davolos, George Patton, Harley Bassman, Harley Bassman's, Bassman, Merrill Lynch, I'm Organizations: Service, American Express, Business, Research, Bloomberg, Getty, Bridgewater Associates, Treasury, Securities, Muhlenkamp, Baidu, Google, North, Cambridge Associates, Allspring, Horizon Kinetics, Opportunities Fund, Credit Suisse Locations: industrials, West Africa, New York City, Guinea
Renting is cheaper than owning in many cities due to high prices and mortgage rates. SmartAsset ranked 343 cities on monthly cost differences between renting and owning a home. In cities like Los Angeles and New York, renters can save thousands per month vs. homeowners. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . That means in many places, it's cheaper per month to rent versus own.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Los Angeles and New York
However, the average millennial reported roughly $63,000 in retirement savings so far. While millennials will need more money to retire comfortably, many are far away from the savings milestone experts suggest. What's more, the future of the US Social Security system is uncertain, and longer expected lifespans — while a positive development — will require more retirement savings. How to figure out how much retirement savings you needTiffany Bell, a 36-year-old business management professional based in Houston, didn't always take retirement savings seriously. How millennials can get their retirement savings back on trackWhile some millennials are struggling financially, it's not all doom and gloom when it comes to their retirement prospects.
Persons: Nathaniel Hudson, Hartman, millennials, Tiffany Bell, didn't, Bell, she's, they're, Chris Chen, Chen, Judi Leahy, it's, Leahy, NerdWallet, Bell —, , X, What's, Nilay Gandhi, Roth, Rita Assaf, Assaf, Gandhi Organizations: Business, Northwestern Mutual, Pew, US Social Security, Fidelity, Financial, Citi, Wealth Management, Vanguard, Big, CFP, Roth IRA, Fidelity Investments, Savings, Hudson Locations: Portland, Houston, New York, Montana
The documentary chronicles the rise and fall of the movie-ticket-subscription company MoviePass, and is based on award-winning reporting from Business Insider . The big storyRetirement mathGetty Images;Alyssa Powell/BIFor some millennials, the reality of their retirement plans is that they're a fantasy. AdvertisementIt's not the first time we've gotten troubling data about millennials' retirement plans. But it's not just a lack of savings working against millennials' plans of riding off into the retirement sunset. AdvertisementAnd if you're hoping for a Hail Mary in the form of a fat inheritance to jumpstart your retirement plans, that's not looking great either.
Persons: , MovieCrash, Alyssa Powell, Jacob Zinkula, William Edwards, we've, it's, millennials, Hail Mary, that's, Juliana Kaplan, It's, Johannes Simon, Neel Kashkari, Sam Altman, Justin Sullivan, Oliver Mulherin, Scarlett Johansson, Altman, Jensen Huang, Adam Neumann, Neumann, WeWork, Moviegoing, there's, BI's Peter Kafka, Sheryl Sandberg, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, HBO, Max, Business, Hail, Reserve Survey, Consumer, Wall, Minneapolis, UBS, Google, Nvidia, BI, Hollywood, HP Locations: Swiss, BI Denmark, New York, London
SmartAsset identified 12 US cities with the cheapest home prices relative to local incomes. Median home prices in these cities are below $175,000, much lower than the US median. But they're also cheap on a relative basis, with homes costing less than 2.5 years of income. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: SmartAsset, Organizations: Service, Business
Commodities have surged in 2024; crude oil is up 12%, copper 26%, silver 25%, and gold 15%. McMillan suggests investing in gold, copper, and mining companies via ETFs for exposure. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Year-to-date, crude oil futures are up 12%, copper has risen 26%, silver has climbed 25%, and gold is up 15%. McMillan manages the IDX Commodity Opportunities Fund (COIDX), which is up 6.5% in 2024 and 2.6% since its inception on November 4, 2022.
Persons: McMillan, , Ben McMillan Organizations: Commodities, IDX, Service, IDX Advisers, Fund, Bloomberg Commodities Index, Business
Various labor market indicators are also showing growing weakness in the economy, he said. Societe GeneraleNational Federation of Independent Business data shows further labor market weakness is likely to come, as small business hiring plans continue to fall. Both stats would suggest a rising unemployment rate going forward. In the meantime, the labor market has consistently proven resilient despite high interest rates, and stocks have enjoyed an eye-popping rally to new highs. Some also argue that labor market data points like the rising unemployment rate have to be shown with context.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, didn't, Edwards, aren't, we'll, Societe Generale Edwards, Bob Elliott, groupthink Edwards, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Wall, Business, Societe Generale National Federation of Independent Business, ING, Generale, Unlimited Partners, Bridgewater Associates, of Labor Statistics, Tech
US home prices are set to rise by 1.6% over the next 12 months, Zillow forecasts. Factors include population growth, mortgage rates, and cost of construction supplies, and more. AdvertisementHome prices in the US are set to rise by 1.6% on average over the next 12 months, according to Zillow forecasts. In a recent analysis, financial information site SmartAsset compiled Zillow's price growth forecasts for 192 US metropolitan areas over the next year. Below, we've listed 22 cities where Zillow expects to see the largest price growth through the end of March 2025.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Business
Another common worry among investors is the risk that elevated interest rates pose to the labor market and overall economy. AdvertisementThat difference is that prior cycles have been driven by lending, Elliott said. Lending growth fueled economic expansions and drops in lending led to economic contractions. He said it can act as a hedge against the Fed cutting rates too early with the economy still strong. AdvertisementInvestors can gain exposure to gold through funds like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU).
Persons: St, Louis, Bob Elliott, Elliott, Louis Fed, It's Organizations: Service, Unlimited Funds, Bridgewater Associates, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Trust
Preparation and being in the right place at the right time is how he said he's built up his real-estate portfolio in Erie County, Pennsylvania, over the last four decades. Throughout his real-estate investing journey, many of Miller's deals came about through seller financing and being at the right place at the right time. Another financing strategy Miller employed to build his portfolio was using a hard-money lender. "Hard-money lending is probably something that's going to help you grow your portfolio faster than any other thing," Miller said. "Most of these programs range anywhere from a hundred percent financing all the way up to 105% financing, depending on the state."
Persons: Joel Miller, he's, Miller, Miller —, , Miller's, Jeff Welgan, Freddie Mac's, Welgan Organizations: Business, Facebook, Housing Act Locations: Erie County , Pennsylvania, New
The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, , it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish
For most investors, holding just one passive global stock market fund and one passive global bond market fund over the long term is the best way to construct a portfolio, the strategists said. While some more time-consuming, complicated strategies may allow for higher returns, this approach gives investors the best all-around bang for their buck, Loeys and Wise said. Our point is instead that we believe you can achieve most, if not all of your financial objectives by following our KISS approach. Two stock funds that do this include the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VTWAX) and the SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF (SPGM). For investors who want to do more with their portfolio, Loeys and Wise suggested dedicating 80%-90% of one's portfolio to the above strategy, and using the other 10%-20% on other investments.
Persons: Jan Loeys, Alexander Wise, Wise, Joeys, Loeys Organizations: JPMorgan, Business, KISS, Index, Stock Market, Bond, Fidelity
If former President Donald Trump wins a second term in the November election, expect him to try to stay in power beyond his allotted four years, says Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Right now, a second Trump term is a real possibility. AdvertisementInstead, Trump is more likely to declare a state of emergency, Stiglitz said, in an attempt to delay or cancel elections. The executive branch has no power to move the date of elections, according to the National Constitution Center. AdvertisementChanging an election date via Congress would need the approval of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the two chambers would have to come up with a new election date, per the National Constitution Center.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, Putin, Orbán, Bolsonaro, Stiglitz, Trump, Joe Biden, Brad Raffensperger, Mike Pence, I'm, Pence, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Service, Business, Trump, RealClearPolitics, Georgia, Capitol, Republican Senate, Congress, National Constitution Center, Senate, Representatives, Constitution Center, Congressional Research Service, CRS, :, Good Society Locations: Ohio
It's a difficult time for first-time homebuyers amid poor housing affordability levels. In a recent analysis, SmartAsset ranked 192 US cities for new homebuyer favorability. The ranking considers median home prices, competition levels, and more. This has crushed affordability, putting housing payments at roughly their most expensive levels relative to incomes in four decades. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: SmartAsset, Organizations: Service, Business
A Piper Sandler recession indicator says an economic downturn could be here. This indicator typically precedes official NBER recession announcements by about four months. But Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says stocks should still rise in the near-term. Popular recession indicators like the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index have been signaling for over a year now that a downturn is ahead. Last week, a lesser-known gauge — with just as impressive a track record — joined their ranks in warning of trouble ahead for the US economy.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, , Piper Organizations: Conference, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business
Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury
The US economic expansion should continue in the months ahead, assuming there are no major external shocks, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the US economy, is still positive, and job gains have been robust. AdvertisementDespite his generally upbeat outlook, however, Stiglitz is concerned about a number of risks. 4 economic risks to watchThe first is that economic slowdowns happening elsewhere could seep into the US. Congress could shut down again, we might not get some of the necessary bills that we need to continue government," Stiglitz said.
Persons: Joseph Stiglitz, we've, Stiglitz, Brent, Mike Johnson, Trump, Putin Organizations: Service, Columbia University, Conference, Business, Republican Locations: Europe, China, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Eastern Europe
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