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That's led the market to assume rates will fall to pre-pandemic lows, BofA's Bernard Mensah says. Yet, inflationary risks will likely keep rates elevated, Mensah says. Before the pandemic, in the decade following the Great Financial Crisis, interest rates remained at historical lows. Despite the Fed's apparent confidence that pricing pressures have eased, Mensah says a variety of inflationary risks will keep interest rates higher. Other analysts have also pointed to inflation risks from geopolitical conflicts.
Persons: That's, BofA's Bernard Mensah, Mensah, , Bank of America's Bernard Mensah, Rowe Price, Tomasz Wieladek Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America's, Bloomberg Locations: US, China, England, Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, Mexico
"Everyone seems to believe that inflation will return to its boring old normal," said Chief European economist Tomasz Wieladek. Changes in central bank policy, expectations, labor markets, and globalization mean that inflation will likely stay volatile going forward." Depending on circumstances, this could set the scene for another large inflation target miss." For instance, JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon has repeated warnings of a pricey future, as global militarization and the green transition stoke inflation. "While AI will likely have a disinflationary effect in the medium term, the associated energy consumption could contribute to higher short-term inflation."
Persons: , Rowe Price, Tomasz Wieladek, Wieladek, Jamie Dimon, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, JPMorgan Locations: Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUK's non-banking financial sector remains vulnerable, economist saysThe Bank of England should remain vigilant for "pockets of vulnerability" in the U.K.'s non-banking finance sector, says Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at T. Rowe Price.
Persons: Tomasz Wieladek, Rowe Price Organizations: Bank of England
Economists polled by Reuters last week were unanimous that the BoE would raise rates to 4.75%, their highest since 2008, from 4.5%. But after inflation held at 8.7% in May, financial markets priced in a nearly 50% chance that the BoE would opt for a bigger move and raise rates by half a percentage point. "The UK has a uniquely bad inflation problem," Krishna Guha, a vice chairman at U.S. investment banking advisory firm Evercore, said. Core inflation - which strips out more volatile prices to show an underlying trend - rose to a 31-year high in May. "Unfortunately, the Bank of England is in a situation where they will have to hike until something breaks," he said.
Persons: BoE, Tomasz Wieladek, Rowe Price, Krishna Guha, Evercore, Rishi Sunak, Andrew Bailey, Megan Greene, Wieladek, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Sky News, MPC, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, United States
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