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☆ Republican House speaker floats deregulation, tax cuts — not tariffs — to pay for Trump proposals
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Rebecca Picciotto | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday said former President Donald Trump could pay for his presidential campaign's economic proposals by rolling back corporate regulation and expanding tax cuts to stimulate growth. "If you get Republican leadership in the White House, the Senate and the House, unified government, we will put this thing on turbo. Trump has proposed making his 2017 tax cuts permanent and further lowering the corporate tax rate, as well as wholly eliminating federal income taxes on worker tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits. That figure did not include Trump's Sept. 12 proposal to exempt overtime pay from federal income taxes. A tax exemption for all hours worked over 40 hours per week would cost an estimated $1.3 trillion over 10 years.

Persons: Mike Johnson, Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: Senate, Social Security, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Yale Budget, Republican Locations: Louisiana

☆ Trump-supporting hedge fund billionaire says he'll pull his money out of the market if Harris wins the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Trump-supporting hedge fund billionaire criticized Harris' tax plans on a Fox Business segment. Paulson said a proposed tax on unrealized gains would "could mass selling of almost everything." AdvertisementBillionaire hedge fund manager and Trump donor John Paulson told Fox Business that he will sell his stocks if Kamala Harris wins the presidency in November. Paulson was particularly focused on Harris' proposal to levy a 25% tax on unrealized gains for individuals worth more than $100 million. AdvertisementBillionaire Mark Cuban took to X, formerly Twitter, to compare how businesses would do between Harris' tax policy and Trump's plans for broad-sweeping tariffs, concluding that Harris would offer more in after-tax profit.

Persons: John Paulson, Kamala Harris, Harris, Paulson, —, I'd, Kent Smetters, Donald Trump, Mark Cuban Organizations: Trump, Fox, Service, Billionaire, Fox Business, Penn Wharton Budget, Business, Biden, Jobs, Republican

☆ Trump likely wouldn’t need Congress to approve his most controversial trade policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —It’s easy to dismiss many presidential candidates’ campaign promises as empty, because Congress would need to approve them. Alex Durante, an economist at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank, told CNN that 100% tariffs would threaten the economy. It’s possible he is floating 100% tariffs as just a threat designed to change the behavior of other countries. ‘No question it’s inflationary’The Trump campaign did not provide an explanation to CNN about how Trump would implement 100% tariffs nor what the trigger would be. He said Trump’s tariff plan, if enacted, would risk setting off a market panic like former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss did in 2022.

Persons: New York CNN —, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Trump, “, you’re, ” Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, ” Obstfeld, Christine McDaniel, George W, Bush, ”, McDaniel, George Mason University’s, Alex Durante, ” Durante, Brian Hughes, ” Hughes, ‘, Harris, Kamala Harris, ” Kent Smetters, Smetters, Wharton “, it’s, ” Wharton, Liz, Joe Brusuelas, ” “ I’m, Joe Biden, Biden, Brusuelas, Liz Truss, Matt Priest, Trump’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Peterson Institute for International Economics, CNN, International Monetary Fund, Trump, United States Trade Representative, Commerce Department, Tax Foundation, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Penn Wharton Budget, Wharton, ABC, RSM, Democratic, Footwear Distributors, Retailers of America Locations: New York, Wisconsin, United States, China, Russia, “, American

☆ Inside the guidance high-net-worth individuals are getting from money managers ahead of elections
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The top 1% aren't the only ones with a target on their backs: Those in the $400,000 to $1 million income bracket could see their capital gains tax rise under her. There has also been concern about whether the step-up in basis, a provision that adjusts capital gains taxes for inherited assets, could be repealed. A 1031 Exchange is popularly used to sell and buy investment property while deferring capital gains tax until future generations inherit it. Once they do, a step-up basis can be used to dismiss those previous capital gains taxes. AdvertisementAs for any impacts from the Trump administration, unilateral trade sanctions and tariffs would hurt the economy and be depressive to the market, Malek said.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Kent Smetters, it's Harris, Smetters, Harris, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Harris hasn't, Trump, Sandi Bragar Organizations: Service, Democratic, Penn Wharton Budget, Business, Biden, Nvidia, Fund Locations: Wall, Washington, Rhode Island , New York , California, Nebraska , Indiana , Wyoming, China

☆ What Trump and Harris’ economic proposals mean for you
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Here’s a look at what could happen to inflation, jobs and the deficit if Trump or Harris win in November. That, among other things, would keep the top tax rate individuals pay at 37% compared to 39.6% before it went into effect. Meanwhile, the tax proposals Harris has put forth so far mostly involve imposing higher taxes, which would have a positive impact on the deficit. For instance, she’s endorsed raising the top individual income tax rate to 44.6% and the top long-term capital gains tax rate to 28% versus the current 20%. Taken together, the Penn Wharton Budget model estimates Harris’ proposals could increase the deficit by an additional $1.2 trillion by 2034.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Trump, Warwick McKibbin, Goldman, she’s, ”, Justin Wolfers, Kevin Dietsch, He’s, Elon Musk, She’s, Joshua Gotbaum Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Gross, University of Michigan, CNN, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Wharton Budget, Social Security, Penn, Wharton Budget Model, Penn Wharton Budget, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, United States, Penn

☆ Trump budget would spike deficits by nearly 5 times Harris proposal, says Penn Wharton
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-27 | by ( Rebecca Picciotto | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Former President Donald Trump's economic proposals would increase federal deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next decade, almost five times more than those of Vice President Kamala Harris, which would add $1.2 trillion, according to a new pair of studies from the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model. The Trump report found that his plan to permanently extend the 2017 tax cuts would add more than $4 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years. His proposal to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits comes with a $1.2 trillion price tag, while his pledge to further reduce corporate taxes would add nearly $6 billion. And her proposal to create a $25,000 subsidy for all qualifying first-time homebuyers would add $140 billion over a decade. Along with corporate tax hikes, Harris has said she supports the $5 trillion worth of revenue raisers contained in President Joe Biden's budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris, Joe Biden's Organizations: Penn Wharton Budget, Social Security

☆ Swelling US debt could tip US markets into crisis as soon as next year, Wharton professor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Market chaos could come next year if the US doesn't adjust its fiscal path, Joao Gomes told CNBC. The US can't afford to extend tax cuts next year, he said. If it doesn't adjust its fiscal trajectory soon, 2025 could be the year when markets start to roil, Wharton professor Joao Gomes warned. "That's something that could definitely happen to us next year," Gomes told CNBC on Thursday. "I think we'll have a serious debate next year about the tax cuts and whether to extend them or not," he said.

Persons: Joao Gomes, Wharton, —, It's, Gomes, Maya MacGuineas, Gomes isn't, Jamie Dimon, Ken Griffin Organizations: CNBC, US, Service, Bank of America, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Trump Administration, White House, Federal, Wall Locations: roil

☆ JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon says the US is addicted to debt, and it's created a dangerous sugar high in the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

America's debt problem has caused a dangerous sugar high for the economy, Jamie Dimon said. The JPMorgan chief pointed to the enormous surge of new debt taken on during the pandemic. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe US is practically addicted to debt – and that's put the economy in a dangerous position, according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. The rest of the global economy is also staring at a "cocktail" of risks, Dimon added.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, —, that's, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, Global Investment Summit, Penn Wharton Budget Locations: London

☆ Are US Treasurys still a safe-haven asset? An epic bond-market crash and rising default fears are sowing doubts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Financial markets have been engaged in a growing debate over the risks that lurk in Treasurys, with prominent voices raising doubts. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn March, a Richard Bernstein Advisors note said spreads on credit default swaps have climbed for Treasurys since since 2011, when the federal government was issued its first credit downgrade. Then came this spring's debt-ceiling drama and the US credit downgrade in August from Fitch, which cited the rising debt burden and political dysfunction. If a downgrade follows, then US debt wouldn't be in the safest category for default risk at any of the three major ratings agencies. Several auctions for long-dated Treasurys have seen weak demand, and buyers are demanding higher compensation for the risk of carrying Treasurys.

Persons: —, Moody's, they've, Mohamed El, Erian, Asset's Seema Shah, Treasurys, Richard Bernstein, Gennadiy Goldberg isn't Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Dallas Federal, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Fitch, Penn Wharton Budget, Securities Locations: Treasurys, there's, US

☆ America’s Debt Crisis Burns While Congress Fiddles
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +9 min

Last month, the Penn Wharton Budget Model from the University of Pennsylvania came out with an analysis of the debt crisis entitled “When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?”Their answer? The concern is that punting the problem into the future, continuing to raise debt even as interest rates rise further or hold at higher levels for longer, the debt will grow even faster in a “snowball” scenario. Similar proposals have been offered over the years but at the same time they seem to lack political support – indeed, Republicans have recently voiced the idea of cutting Social Security. The debt crisis is rapidly worsening at a time when the bond market is having its own set of problems. A recent government auction of debt, an occurrence that is becoming more common as the U.S. borrows more, saw weak demand.

Persons: Dick Cheney, Richard Neal, Democrats –, Blu Putnam, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Jerome Powell, ”, Gene Steuerle, Richard B, Fisher, probity, Kevin McCarthy, Kent Smetters, Boettner, Smetters, Richard Robis, Donald Trump Organizations: Capitol, Democratic, Massachusetts, The New York Times, Federal Reserve, Partisans, Democrats, Fed, CME Group, Social Security, Medicare, Urban Institute, California Rep, Penn Wharton Budget, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wharton, Social, Republicans, Treasury, Hamas, BCA Research, White House Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Japan, Israel

☆ Green energy’s tailwinds blow the other way
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Falling costs, cheap capital and supportive politicians helped propel a headlong rush into renewable power. As relations with China deteriorate, the United States and Europe are increasingly concerned about the country’s grip on parts of the green energy supply chain. In recent roundtable discussions moderated by Breakingviews on both sides of the Atlantic, participants expressed optimism about the momentum of investment in green energy. The IRA has unleashed a green energy boom. The world can ill afford to relax its embrace of green power.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, –, Joe Biden’s, Jared Cohen, Goldman Sachs, Breakingviews, carmaker Ford, Rishi Sunak’s, Pennsylvania’s Penn, George Hay, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Britain's, Downing, Reuters, Global, International Energy Agency, International Renewable Energy Agency, Energy, Commission, Applied Innovation, Goldman, Amperex Technology, Companies, British, MIT’s Center for Energy, Environmental, Research, University, Pennsylvania’s, Thomson Locations: London, Ukraine, U.S, China, United States, Europe, People’s Republic, Vietnam, Mexico

☆ U.S. National Debt Tops $33 Trillion for First Time
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Alan Rappeport | More About Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But the debt is on track to top $50 trillion by the end of the decade, even after newly passed spending cuts are taken into account, as interest on the debt mounts and the cost of the nation’s social safety net programs keeps growing. But slowing the growth of the national debt continues to be daunting. Some federal spending programs that passed during the Biden administration are expected to be more costly than previously projected. At the same time, several of President Biden’s attempts to raise more revenue through tax changes have been met with resistance. The policy was projected to raise about $8 billion in additional tax revenue over a decade.

Persons: Biden, University of Pennsylvania’s Penn, Biden’s Organizations: University of Pennsylvania’s, Budget, Internal Revenue Service

☆ Analysis Says Biden’s New Student Debt Plan Could Cost $475 Billion
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Stacy Cowley | More About Stacy Cowley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

President Biden’s new repayment plan for federal student loans will cost the government $475 billion over the next decade, according to a new economic projection. The updated income-driven repayment plan would surpass the $400 billion cost of the debt forgiveness plan that the Supreme Court rejected last month. But a new and revised plan, which the administration has named Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, is vastly more generous. That means the government, not borrowers, will ultimately pay a bigger share of the recipients’ educational costs. Economists for the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model, a nonpartisan research group, estimate that payment reductions in the $1.6 trillion in outstanding federal student loans will cost the government $200 billion.

Persons: Biden’s, —, University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Organizations: Education Department, Valuable Education, University of Pennsylvania’s, Budget

☆ Analysis: Biden's IRA climate bill won't cut deficit as expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Jarrett Renshaw | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

The White House estimated, and independent budget analysts agreed, it could cut the deficit by $300 billion over the next decade. The tax credits have been massively popular with companies, spurring new investments and boosting job growth, environmental benefits -- and the price tag. The bill will add $750 billion to the nation’s deficit over ten years, according to Smetters. White House officials say revenue will outpace original congressional estimates, and they point to the millions of jobs the IRA is expected to create. “We’re going to have more deployment and achieve more emissions reductions than we initially thought,” the White House official said.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, ”, Kent Smetters, Goldman Sachs, Joe Manchin, Manchin, we've, Joe Biden’s, Tesla, Smetters, ” Smetters, “ We’re, Merck, Jarrett Renshaw, Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell Organizations: White House, Penn Wharton Budget Model, White, Congressional, Credit Suisse, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School, U.S, Democrat, Credit, Office, University of Pennsylvania, European Union, EV, Biden, Republicans, CBO, Amazon, Pepsi, Home, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan

WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - The bipartisan debt-ceiling deal that could clear Congress as soon as Thursday would stave off an imminent U.S. default, but might deliver less budget savings than Republicans have hoped for, according to nonpartisan budget analysts. The agreement ensures that President Joe Biden will not have to grapple with another debt-ceiling showdown until after the November 2024 election. That is less than the $4.8 trillion Republicans had initially sought, but still the largest deficit-reduction package since a 2011 deal that emerged from a similar debt-ceiling showdown. That would put more $1 trillion of the deal's anticipated savings at risk, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a research group. The deal increases spending on defense and veterans' care, even as it aims to clamp down on other discretionary programs.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, MacGuineas, Biden, Veronique de Rugy, George Mason University's, Penn Wharton, McCarthy, Emily Gee, Andy Sullivan, Scott Malone, Alistair Bell Organizations: Penn Wharton Budget, White, Internal, Service, Office, Republican, SNAP, Social Security, Center for American, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ Meet a new mom with $90,000 in student debt who's tired of 'the unfair game' of Biden's loan forgiveness: 'We need this fix'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-12 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

She would qualify for the full $20,000 amount of Biden's broad student-debt relief plan. Alexandria Mavin, 33, has $90,000 in student debt. A common thread among opponents of the debt relief plan is that it's unfair to those who have already paid off their loans, or funded their higher educations on their own. "It's crazy to see with just this one student loan being gone, how much financial freedom I'm finding just from one measly $400-a-month student loan," she added. But when it's 45 million people," Mavin said, referring to the number of Americans with student debt, "that's a scam."

☆ Biden's plan to forgive student loans could end up costing over $1 trillion, an analysis says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-05 | by ( Grace Dean | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Biden's plan to forgive student loans could cost more than $1 trillion, per an analysis. Under the plan, around 20 million borrowers would eligible to have their full debt wiped out. The plan also included extending student loan forbearance to the end of the year, which the model estimates would cost another $16 billion. That additional $520 billion would take the total costs of the student loan forgiveness plan to over $1 trillion, Wharton said. Americans currently have a collective student loan debt of around $1.6 trillion, per federal data.

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