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It also means lots of talk from the experts about "normalizing the yield curve" in the bond market — meaning getting back to a setup where bonds with longer maturities yield higher rates than those with shorter-term maturities. That's referred to as "yield curve inversion," which has historically signaled an upcoming recession. Currently, however, the yield curve looks more like a check mark than a gradually rising hill. An inverted Treasury yield curve messes with that dynamic. Everyone, from private citizens to multinational corporations benefits from a normalized yield curve because normal means less uncertainty, which means more predictability.
Persons: Jerome Powell, shouldn't, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, CNBC, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Washington , DC
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce Wednesday its first interest rate cut since 2020. While layoffs remain low, hiring has virtually ground to a halt, especially in some white-collar professions, making the job search process unusually difficult for many. That would entail a cut of at least 0.5% at some point by the time the Fed announces its interest rate in January. The Fed believes Wednesday's anticipated cut, and ones likely coming over the next several months, should put a floor under further economic deterioration. "Layoffs remain low, job openings remain high, GDP is growing at a healthy pace, and there have not been any major negative shocks," David Mericle, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. economist, said in a note to clients.
Persons: Jay Bryson, Wednesday's, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Fed, NBC News, Citi Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
Like the overall market, Microsoft has been running higher of late as odds increasingly favor a 50-basis-point Fed cut. With so much hope on Wall Street, if the Fed were to go with a smaller 25-basis-point move, the market could get hit and pressure Microsoft stock. The Club has a $500 per share price target on Microsoft stock. That's our fundamental case, which aligns with technical analysis of Microsoft's one-year stock chart pattern. A laptop computer with Microsoft Copilot+ installed is on display at the Best Buy store on June 18, 2024 in Miami, Florida.
Persons: Amy Hood, we've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Joe Raedle Organizations: Microsoft, Fed, CNBC, Getty Locations: Miami , Florida
The market's turn toward treating good economic news as positive for stocks is pictured here in a chart from Citi strategists, showing the three-month correlation between the S & P 500 and the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise index has turned sharply higher. The S & P 500's low for the week was Wednesday morning, right at the 5400 level where it previously hit a low a week ago Friday after a tepid employment report. Forward 12-month S & P 500 earnings forecasts continue to rise smartly, now approaching $270. But, thanks to the past two months of sideways churn, that's down from 21.7 when the S & P first hit its current level in July. And the rally last week could well have front-run any potential positive inference from the Fed's move next week.
Persons: Ally Financial, Ed Hyman, Loretta Mester, William Dudley, John Kolovos Organizations: Citi, Citi U.S, Fed, Ally, CPI, Wall Street, Financial Times, Treasury, National Association of Active Investment, American Association of
Indexes slid on Thursday despite a strong earnings report from Meta that sent the stock soaring. New jobless-claims data beat expectations and approached a one-year high, stoking economic concern. Investors are pricing in a 100% chance of Fed rate cuts in September. Shares of Meta soared as much as 11% after the company beat earnings estimates in the most recent quarter and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Qualcomm also beat earnings expectations but saw its stock down 3% Thursday.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Meta, Wednesday's, Qualcomm, Here's Locations: Meta
The next rate decision from the Federal Reserve coupled with May inflation data, both on Wednesday, will play key roles in how stocks perform next week — quite probably lending added volatility to an already jittery market. The Fed's rate decision All eyes are on the Fed next week and its rate decision that's set to come down at 2 p.m. Wednesday. But investors have tempered expectations since then amid a spate of stubborn inflation data. That makes May's consumer price index report due out before the bell Wednesday another key focal point for investors. Economists polled by Dow Jones are bracing for the consumer price index to rise 3.4% year over year and 0.1% on a monthly basis.
Persons: nonfarm, Kathryn Kaminski, Scott Wren, they've, it's, Tony Roth, Envestnet's Dana D'Auria, D'Auria, Dow Jones, Wells, Wren, John Belton, Apple, Jerome Powell, John Wiley Friday Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, GameStop, Dow, AlphaSimplex Group, Fed, Federal Open Market, European Central Bank, European Union, Wells Fargo Investment, Wilmington Trust's, CPI, Apple's Worldwide, Broadcom, Dave, Treasury, Signet Jewelers, University of Michigan Locations: Wells Fargo, Cupertino , California
US stocks rose Thursday after the Fed meeting and as investors eyed Apple earnings. Expectations heading into Apple earnings are mixed, with analysts seeing a tough period for the iPhone maker. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks rose Thursday morning following Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting and as traders geared up for Apple earnings after the closing bell. Expectations are for the tech firm to report revenue of $90.33 billion and earnings per share $1.50.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Apple, Service, Reserve, Labor Department, Dow, Nasdaq
It's a week jam-packed with notable events, including earnings from Apple , Amazon and Eli Lilly . He also said to pay attention to Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting and Friday's employment figures from the Department of Labor. "We have to run such a ridiculous gauntlet next week that I have no idea how it'll play out," he said. Wednesday also brings reports from Wingstop , Carvana and Marriott . Apple will report on Thursday, and Cramer noted there's been a lot of negative sentiment from investors surrounding the company.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Eli Lilly, Jensen Huang, Cramer, it's, he'll, Seagen, there's Organizations: Apple, Federal Reserve, Department of Labor, Nvidia, Food and Drug Administration, Starbucks, CVS, Pfizer, Amazon, Walgreens, Marriott, Vision Locations: It's, China, Wingstop, Carvana
The price of bond funds like TLT move in the opposite direction of bond yields, meaning lower prices equal higher yields. TLT 1M mountain The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF has fallen for eight straight trading sessions. Only two of the trading sessions have seen a decline of more than 0.5%. One of the TLT's main competitors, the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) , also fell for eight-straight trading sessions. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) has only fallen in five of the past eight sessions, for example.
Persons: Jason Goepfert Organizations: U.S . Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, Federal, White Oak Consultancy
Wall Street analysts had a lot to say about our portfolio names as Big Tech earnings dominated the action. Alphabet Wall Street's call: Goldman Sachs raised Alphabet's 12-month price target to $171 per share from $164 after earnings. The Club's take: We raised our price target on Alphabet's following its post-earnings slump. Meta Platforms Wall Street's call: Meta Platforms received tons of price target increases Friday. Meta shares jumped more than 20% on Friday to a new record-high close.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, we're, Jim Cramer, Meta, Mark Zuckerberg, CY27E, Oppenheimer, COST's, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brendan Mcdermid Organizations: Wednesday's Federal, Wall Street, Big Tech, Microsoft, Barclays, Super, Citi, Meta, Investors, Nvidia, Bank of America, Club, Costco, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: CY23, New York City, U.S
The first Fed rate cut probably isn't coming until June, according to Bank of America. Central bank chief Jerome Powell pushed back on hopes for a March rate cut on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe Fed's first rate cut is now unlikely to come in March after the central bank struck a surprisingly hawkish tone at Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to Bank of America. Investors still see an aggressive pace of rate cuts by the end of the year, despite lowered hopes for a March cut. AdvertisementExperts have warned that Fed rate cuts could be a double-edged sword for the economy, particularly if the Fed cuts interest rates rapidly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Jerome Powell's presser, aren't, Powell, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Fed
Jim Cramer looks ahead to Wednesday's Fed decision
  + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Jim Cramer looks ahead to Wednesday's Fed decision'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer looks ahead to tomorrow's rate decision from the Federal Reserve and the impact it might have on the economy.
Persons: Jim Cramer Organizations: Federal Reserve
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we're looking at why this is such a big week for the stock market . The big storyA week to rememberThree trends in the stock market are bound to vault equities higher in 2024, Wall Street strategists say. Getty ImagesWe're less than a month into 2024, but this week could determine the market's trajectory for the rest of the year. Tim Cook AppleThe information overload comes amid an uncertain time for Big Tech and the broader stock market.
Persons: , Netflix's, it's, Matthew Fox, Jerome Powell's, Tim Cook, Tesla, haven't, we'll, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Read, Jamie Dimon, Larry Downing, Jennifer Piepszak, Marianne Lake, Troy Rohrbaugh, Jeffrey Gundlach, Buckle, Mohamed El, isn't, Erian, Lyra, Maven, Tyler Le, Liquidators, Max Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Big Tech, Microsoft, Fed, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Google, optimist, JPMorgan, DoubleLine, Prime, Comcast, Warner Bros, Lyra Health, Hong, Alaska Airlines Locations: India, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Alaska
CAT YTD mountain Caterpillar YTD Caterpillar shares have been on a wild ride this year — trending higher initially and then sinking into late spring; ripping higher to records and hitting another rough patch. DD YTD mountain DuPont YTD DuPont is levered to housing, which we all feel better about after last Wednesday's Fed meeting. ETN YTD mountain Eaton YTD Since our November meeting, we swapped out Emerson Electric for Eaton because we didn't trust Emerson after a one-two punch of a hostile takeover and a not-so-hot quarter. HON YTD mountain Honeywell YTD Honeywell recently bought a terrific industrial security business from Carrier for $4.95 billion. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Ed Breen, Breen, that's, Emerson, Eaton, It's, Carrier, Vimal Kapur, Kapur —, Linde, We're, Linde's, I'm, Decker, Stanley Black, Stanley, SWK, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Caterpillar, CAT, DuPont YTD DuPont, Fed, DuPont, Emerson, Broadcom, Honeywell YTD Honeywell, Carrier, Honeywell, LIN, Nasdaq, Linde, Exxon, ETN, Eaton Corporation, NYSE Locations: U.S, Eaton, Emerson
On Wednesday, Brazil arrested two people on terrorism charges as part of an operation to take down a suspected Hezbollah cell planning attacks on Brazilian soil. Later that day, Mossad publicly thanked Brazil's police and said, "Given the backdrop of the war in Gaza," Hezbollah was continuing to attack Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. A spokesperson for the Israeli Prime Minister's Office, which oversees the Mossad, had no immediate comment. Brazil's Foreign Ministry told Israel this week that the diplomatic relationship would become unsustainable if any harm were to befall the trapped Brazilians, the sources said. The Iranian government and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group in Lebanon, could not immediately be reached for comment.
Persons: Brazil's, Flavio Dino, Israel, Dino, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Eli Cohen, Mauro Vieira, Vieira, Daniel Zonshine, Jair Bolsonaro, Lula, Zonshine, Andrei Rodrigues, Rodrigues, Gabriel Stargardter, Maytaal Angel, Jonathan Saul, Andrew Heavens, Brad Haynes, David Gregorio, Leslie Adler Organizations: RIO DE, Brazilian Federal Police, Prime, Office, Mossad, Foreign Ministry, Reuters, O Globo, Wednesday's Federal Police, Federal Police, Hezbollah, Thomson Locations: RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil, Israel, Gaza, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Iran, Lebanon
Fed meetings may not be the biggest mover of the bond market, Societe Generale said. AdvertisementAdvertisementDespite US bond yields plunging after Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, central bankers may not be moving the market as much as other factors, according to Societe Generale. Another factor elbowing yields higher is the Bank of Japan, according to Edwards. AdvertisementAdvertisementThis week, the BoJ further loosened its grip on bond yields, marking another step back from its so-called yield curve control policy meant to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low. "That pressure intensified at exactly the same time as it became apparent just how gargantuan US Treasury issuance had become," he added.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Fedspeak, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Service, Reserve, Treasury, Treasury Department
Morning Bid: Fed, financing and jobs greet November
  + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Despite the U.S. Treasury forecasting a lower fourth-quarter borrowing need than previously flagged, the tension in the bond market remains ahead of its detailed future refinancing plans due later on Wednesday. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to hold policy rates steady again on Wednesday, the Treasury plans may end up getting more bond market attention. But U.S. consumer confidence has softened, oil prices are falling again and the overseas demand picture is weakening. Another heavy day of U.S. corporate earnings is topped by big insurers and the likes of PayPal and Kraft Heinz. On Tuesday, shares in heavy-machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT.N) sank almost 7% as signs of slowing demand overshadowed a quarterly earnings beat.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Masato Kanda, it's, Japan's, China Evergrande, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Kraft Heinz, Estee Lauder, Kraft, Ingersoll Rand, Nick Macfie Organizations: Wednesday's, Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei, Japan, U.S, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Treasury, HK, White House, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, Wall, PayPal, Kraft, Caterpillar, Edison, AIG, Prudential Financial, MetLife, Qualcomm, Mckesson, Kraft Heinz, Allstate, Congnizant, Boston Properties, Water, Garmin, CVS, Brands, Humana, Reuters Graphics Reuters, US National Retail Federation, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, United States, China, Hong Kong, San Francisco, Tokyo, Marathon, Boston
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday told investors what he'll be focusing on in the coming week, namely Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting and earnings reports from companies such as Eli Lilly and Apple . Cramer noted that recent days have been "brutal" for the stock market and bemoaned the bond market's effect on stocks. On Monday, Cramer will be waiting to see the results of McDonald's earnings report. Cramer called Thursday the most important business day of the week, with earnings from drug maker Eli Lilly and tech giant Apple. EOG Resources , which Cramer said is among the best oil and gas companies alongside Coterra , reports earnings after the bell Thursday followed by a Friday conference call.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Eli Lilly, Apple, Cramer, he'll, Eaton, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro Organizations: Reserve, Caterpillar, Micro Devices, CVS, Yum Brands, KFC, Taco Bell, Apple, EOG, Treasury
Key gauges of Chinese stocks have hit their lowest levels in about 10 months. Global funds have withdrawn $3.8 billion this month, despite Beijing's effort to boost markets. Trading activity has also slowed in September, falling 32% from the first week of the month. AdvertisementAdvertisementAdded to that are the Federal Reserve's high interest rates, which have made Treasury markets an attractive investing alternative. Meanwhile, global funds have shed $3.8 billion from onshore Chinese stocks, following a $12 billion selloff in August.
Organizations: Service, CSI, Federal, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, outflows
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest economic forecasts. Swedroe recently wrote an article where he looked at one simple metric: the Fed's effort to project its interest rate increases for 2022. The Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds rate seven times in 2022, ending the year with the target rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Yet the Fed has a poor track record predicting not just interest rates, but other issues such as GDP growth. Swedroe's conclusion: "If the Federal Reserve, which sets the Fed funds rate, can be so wrong in its forecast, it isn't likely that professional forecasters will be accurate in theirs."
Persons: Larry Swedroe, Swedroe, Federal Reserve — Organizations: Federal Reserve, Strategic, Federal, CPI, New York Stock Exchange
Mortgage rates rose again last week, and so did demand for refinances, which at face value doesn't make a lot of sense. Applications to refinance a home loan jumped 13% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. Refinancing demand usually moves in the same direction as mortgage rates, but that was not the case. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home increased 2% for the week and were 26% lower than the same week one year ago. "Purchase applications increased for conventional and FHA loans over the week," said Joel Kan, an MBA economist in a release.
Persons: Joel Kan, Homebuyers, Jerome Powell Organizations: Mortgage, Wednesday's, Reserve
Data on Monday showed U.S. homebuilder confidence fell for a second month in September, with optimism dropping to the lowest since April as high interest rates cut into affordability for prospective buyers. Fed fund futures show investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold in the 5.25% to 5.5% range on Wednesday. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to 4% last week, but said this hike could be its last. Traders think Sweden's central bank is highly likely to raise interest rates on Thursday by 25 basis points to 4%, piling more pressure on the economy. The yen was up about 0.15% against the dollar at 147.62 to the dollar, with traders out for a Japanese public holiday.
Persons: Lee Jae, BoE, BoJ, Michael Brown, Janet Yellen, Brown, Kazuo Ueda, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Chris Reese, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Trader, Treasury, European Central Bank, Traders, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Seoul, Swedish, Bank of England
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Apple preorders Delivery dates for the iPhone 15 suggest that demand for Apple' s (AAPL) newest smartphone is outpacing supply, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients Monday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, Goldman Sachs, Preorders, Goldman, he's, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Oracle, Apple, Apple Watch, Pro Max Locations: China
LONDON — European markets retreated on Friday, tracking cautious global sentiment as traders assess the future for monetary policy and fresh concerns about China's real estate sector. The European blue chip index closed Thursday's session down 0.9% and is on course for a negative week, after the U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes showed further interest rate hikes were not off the table. European stocks on Friday look set to follow counterparts in Asia-Pacific, where markets fell across the board as investors assessed Japan's July inflation print and embattled Chinese real estate giant Evergrande's U.S. bankruptcy filing. The company sought protection under Chapter 15 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, which shields non-U.S. companies that are undergoing restructuring from creditors. Wednesday's Fed meeting minutes prompted the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield on Thursday to rise to its highest level since October 2022.
Persons: Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, Dow, Wednesday's Fed Locations: U.S ., Asia, Pacific, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should stay at typical strategic weights on stocks, says U.S. Bank's Lisa EricksonLisa Erickson, US Bank Wealth Management head of public markets group, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what investors should do with Wednesday's Fed minutes, whether there will be a new wave of inflation, and more.
Persons: Bank's Lisa Erickson Lisa Erickson Organizations: Bank Wealth Management, Wednesday's
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