Vice President Kamala Harris, left, at the White House, Washington, July 22, 2024, and former President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, Aug. 15, 2024. TRUE Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman was one of the few political analysts to accurately predict ahead of the 2016 election that Trump would defeat then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

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Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Allan Lichtman, Lichtman, Vladimir Keilis, Trump, Biden, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden Organizations: White House, Democratic, Republican, American University, The New York Times, White, U.S . House, Times, Trump, Electoral Locations: Washington, Bedminster , New Jersey, United States, Russian, U.S, Gaza