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☆ Crunch time after string of aggressive central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Major central banks have confounded economists with a string of interest rate rises that, so far, have moderated inflation without causing global recession. So far, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,915 bps in this cycle. Reuters Graphics2) NEW ZEALANDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its cash rate to a 14-year high of 5.5% in May and has kept it there since. Reuters Graphics7) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 4.1% for a third consecutive meeting in September, the last under former Governor Philip Lowe. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, meets next week.

Persons: BoE, Macklem, Philip Lowe, Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, UNITED, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of, BRITAIN, of England, CANADA Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, ECB, Norges Bank, SWEDEN Traders, Swiss, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NORWAY, Reserve Bank of Australia, SWEDEN, Swedish, SWITZERLAND Swiss, JAPAN

Two of them - Norway and United Kingdom - delivered a total of 50 basis points of rate hikes in the lowest such tally since January. Turkey delivered a super-sized 750 bps rate rise in August while Russia lifted its benchmark by 350 bps and Thailand added 25 bps. "Major central banks will maintain a restrictive policy stance through 2024," said Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president strategy and research at Moody's. "Significant easing by emerging market central banks is unlikely with advanced economy central banks still battling elevated inflation, and uncertainty around the U.S. interest rate outlook." Emerging markets interest ratesReporting by Karin Strohecker and Vincent Flasseur Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jason Lee, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Costa, Madhavi Bokil, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Norway, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Central, United Kingdom, Australia, New, China, Europe, Chile, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Thailand

☆ Summer of angst as bond yields surge and global stocks wobble
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Meanwhile, U.S. real yields, which show what investors can expect to earn on government bonds after adjusting for inflation, stand near their highest point since 2009. Benchmark yields also guide other key economic rates, raising the cost of capital as they climb. In Europe, a key long-term gauge of market inflation expectations remains well above the European Central Bank's 2% inflation target . Reuters GraphicsHigher bond yields, falling equities and a rising dollar are all tightening financial conditions fast, adding to investor concerns. Property accounts for roughly a quarter of China's economy, which is already suffering from tepid domestic consumption, faltering factory activity, rising unemployment and weak overseas demand.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Hong, Yoruk Bahceli, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Lewis Krauskopf, Vincent Flasseur, Ira Iosebashvili, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Japan’s Nikkei, Reuters, Treasury, Central, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Britain, China's

A view of logo of New Development Bank (NDB) at its headquarters in Shanghai, China July 10, 2023. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said boosting local currency usage among the NDB's members will also be on the agenda, with the aim of de-risking the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations rather than de-dollarisation. "Most countries that are members of the NDB have been encouraging (it) to provide loans in local currencies," Godongwana said. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsSo far, China is by far the NDB's most successful local currency market. GROWING MEMBERSHIPNevertheless, the NDB, established with $10 billion in paid-in share capital from each BRICS country, wants to expand.

Persons: Aly, Enoch Godongwana, Godongwana, Leslie Maasdorp, Maasdorp, Alexander Ekbom, Chris Humphrey, Humphrey, Rachel Savage, Brenda Goh, Tannur Anders, Vincent Flasseur, Karin Strohecker, Joe Bavier, Alexander Smith Organizations: New Development Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, Finance, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S ., United Arab, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Reuters Graphics, Overseas Development Institute, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Africa, JOHANNESBURG, SHANGHAI, Russia, South Africa, Brazil, India, Johannesburg, Ukraine, United States, Mumbai, Brasilia, Bangladesh, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Uruguay, Algeria, Honduras, Zimbabwe, Saudi Arabia, Asia, London

☆ Big central banks hike again with end of tightening in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Major central banks are tentatively eyeing the end of aggressive interest rate hikes as price pressures finally show signs of abating. So far, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,865 basis points (bps) in this cycle. This may have marked the end of a 20-month hiking cycle, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the central bank to stay put for the rest of 2023. Canada's inflation rate fell to 2.8% in June. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, kept its interest rate target at -0.1% in July, but shook markets by making its yield curve control policy more flexible.

Persons: Jerome Powell, BoE, Riksbank, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Tomasz Janowski, Toby Chopra Organizations: UNITED, Federal Reserve, ZEALAND, Reserve Bank of New, Reuters, BRITAIN, Bank of England, bps, Bank of Canada, BoC, European Central Bank, ECB, Reserve Bank of Australia, Norges Bank, Swiss, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NORWAY, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND Swiss, JAPAN

☆ Bank of England caught between inflation fight and recession risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A woman carrying a Union Flag umbrella stands near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Analysts and investors are mostly expecting a quarter-point increase in Bank Rate, taking it to a 15-year high of 5.25%. But they also say they must quash an inflation rate that is the highest among major economies. INFLATION THREATBritish consumer price inflation fell by more than expected in June to 7.9% in annual terms, down sharply from 8.7% in May. Reuters GraphicsHOUSING MARKETThe most obvious impact of the increase in the BoE's Bank Rate from 0.1% in December 2021 to the current 5.0% has been in the housing market.

Persons: Adams, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, GfK, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vincent Flasseur, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Flag, Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Analysts, Reuters, Nationwide, Halifax, insolvencies, Reuters Graphics LABOUR, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, BoE's, England, Wales, Germany

Three of the six central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies that met in July hiked rates, while the other three kept their benchmarks unchanged, Reuters data showed. "Chile announced a larger-than-expected rate cut, and is the first emerging market to jump on the easing bandwagon in the current cycle," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo. Twelve out of 18 central banks in the Reuters sample of developing economies had interest rate setting meetings in July. However, nine central banks opted to keep policy unchanged, with rate hikes coming from Turkey and Russia - two countries whose monetary policy circles are determined by domestic dynamics rather than global trends. On the rate cutting side, emerging market central banks have seen three cuts reducing interest rates by 160 bps in total.

Persons: Christian Keller, Costa, Charu, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, David Evans Organizations: LONDON, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Barclays, Saxo, Thomson Locations: Chile, Turkey, Russia, Latin America, Costa Rica, Uruguay

☆ Big central banks hike again with end in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

To date, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,840 basis points (bps) in this cycle. Expectations for a big rate increase have eased after latest data showed inflation fell to a softer-than-expected 7.9% in June. Markets think there's a 50% chance of a 25 bps increase in September, and an equal chance of a hold. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, concludes a two-day meeting on Friday. The central bank is leaning towards keeping the dial set to dovish, Reuters reported last week.

Persons: Jerome Powell, BoE, Philip Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Riksbank, Kazuo Ueda, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Sharon Singleton Organizations: UNITED, Federal Reserve, ZEALAND, Reserve Bank of New, Reuters, BRITAIN, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, BoC, European Central Bank, Norges Bank, bps, Swiss National Bank, Markets, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, AUSTRALIA, NORWAY, Norway, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND, JAPAN

☆ Insight: Wegovy weight-loss injection factory plagued by sterile-safety failures
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Maggie Fick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

Microbial contamination of drugs injected into the body, rather than swallowed, can be deadly, the people said - although the FDA inspectors didn't report any signs of this sort of contamination at the Brussels factory. In both visits, the FDA inspectors found Catalent staff had repeatedly failed to investigate why equipment was malfunctioning. BLINDSIDED BY BOOMING DEMANDWithin months of launching Wegovy, Novo Nordisk was overwhelmed by demand in America, and told shareholders that its initial supply would not keep pace. From December that year and throughout 2022, Novo repeatedly pushed out the timeline for when the supply constraints would end. In late December 2022, Novo announced all five dose strengths were available again in the United States.

Persons: Wegovy, Catalent, Eli Lilly, LLY.N, Susan Bain, Karsten Munk Knudsen, Ambre James, Brown, James, Knudsen didn't, Steven Lynn, Lynn, David Talmage, didn't, Novo, Maggie Fick, Vincent Flasseur, Michele Gershberg Organizations: U.S . Food, Drug Administration, Reuters, FDA, Novo Nordisk, University of Southern, Novo executives, Novo, U.S, Manufacturing, Parenteral Drug Association, Thomson Locations: U.S, Brussels, Danish, University of Southern California, Wegovy, Novo, America, United States

FRANKFURT/LONDON, July 26 (Reuters) - German industry is finding new ways to transport cargoes from coal to chemicals as increasingly frequent low water levels on the Rhine disrupt Europe's largest economy. At Kaub , the critical chokepoint for Rhine barges, water levels fell to their lowest this year earlier this week. ARTERY OF THE ECONOMYThe impact of low water levels is not limited to big business. But logistics firms are benefiting from rising demand for vessels adapted to lower river levels. "We expect, due to climate change, that the extremes on the river Rhine will happen more often," said Maickel Uijtewaal, general manager at Stolt-Nielsen (SNI.OL).

Persons: Uwe Arndt, Barbara Hoyer, majeure, Roberto Spranzi, Maickel Uijtewaal, Steffen Bauer, Christoph Steitz, Vera Eckert, Ludwig Burger, Patricia Weiss, Rene Wagner, Nette, Tom Kaeckenhoff, Matthias Inverardi, Vincent Flasseur, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Federal Waterways, Shipping Agency, Reuters Graphics, Cologne, BASF, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Kiel Institute, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Stolt, Nielsen, HGK Shipping, Daniels, Midland Co, Chemicals, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, LONDON, Kaub, Europe, Reuters Graphics Germany, Ludwigshafen, HGK, Frankfurt, Berlin, Duesseldorf, London

Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan

☆ UK economy shows strains and gains, complicating Bank of England's job
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But the BoE is also aware that the economic impact of its 18-month campaign of rate hikes has yet to be felt fully. Below is a summary of key measures of the economy that the BoE will be watching before its next announcement on interest rates on Aug. 3. INFLATION THREATBritish consumer price inflation held at 8.7% in annual terms in May, down from a peak of 11.1% last October but the highest among the Group of Seven advanced economies. Reuters GraphicsINSOLVENCIESThere are signs that companies, especially smaller ones, are struggling as borrowing costs rise and the economy barely grows. Reuters GraphicsGraphics by Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram and Vincent Flasseur; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BoE, GfK, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vincent Flasseur, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank of England's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Nationwide, Halifax, Reuters, insolvencies, Wales, Reuters Graphics LABOUR, Thomson Locations: BoE's, Britain, England, Germany

Sweden, Switzerland and the European Central Bank also tightened policy, taking the total monthly tally of hikes to 225 basis points last month. The latest G10 moves bring the total 2023 rate hike tally among G10 central banks to 950 bps across 28 hikes. "The last leg of inflation reduction to central bank targets may be the most challenging, in our view." Thirteen out of 18 central banks in the Reuters sample of developing economies had interest rate setting meetings last month. This was the second biggest rate hike in recent times since Russia was forced to deliver an emergency 1,050 bps rate hike following its invasion of Ukraine.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Tiffany Wilding, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, William Maclean Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Australia, European Central Bank, Reuters, U.S, Vanguard, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Norway, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, U.S . Federal, Turkey's, Russia, Ukraine, China's

☆ What could break as interest rates rise?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sweden, where rates rose again on Thursday, is one to watch with most homeowners' mortgages moving in lockstep with rates. Reuters Graphics2/ REAL ESTATE: PART 2Having taken advantage of the low rates era to borrow aplenty and buy up property assets, the commercial real estate sector is grappling with higher debt refinancing costs as rates rise. "The single most important thing is interest rates. But not just interest rates; what it is equally important is the predictability of rates," said Thomas Mundy, EMEA head of capital markets strategy at real estate firm JLL. "If we were settled on an interest rate, real estate prices could adjust.

Persons: Richard Portes, Thomas Mundy, Banks, Florian, Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Nick Kraemer, Wagner, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Tina Fordham, Chiara Elisei, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Kripa Jayaram, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Reuters, Federal, Finance, London Business School, Lombard, Federal Reserve, Casino, Sweden's SBB, Fordham Global Foresight, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Russia, Sweden, lockstep, London's, City, RUSSIA, Ukraine

☆ Major central banks not done with rate hikes just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Fed policymakers paused on its rate hikes since March 2022, and kept the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%, its highest level since August 2007. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on June 6 to an 11-year high of 4.1%. It expects inflation to stay above its 2% target through 2025 and hinted at more rate hikes ahead. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan remains the world's most dovish major central bank under new Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Jerome Powell, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Thomas Jordan, Kazuo Ueda, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ransinghe, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Heiko Becker LONDON, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New, UNITED, Fed, Bank of Canada, BRITAIN, Bank of, ECB, Norges Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Canada, Japan, dovish, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S, Bank of England, AUSTRALIA, SWEDEN, NORWAY, SWITZERLAND, JAPAN

At the height of the tightening cycle in September last year, eight central banks hiked rates by a cumulative 550 bps. Year-to-date, G10 central banks have delivered 21 rate hikes and tightened by a total of 725 bps. That compares with 54 rate hikes in the whole of 2022 and 2,700 bps of rate hikes. Developed markets interest ratesMeanwhile, emerging markets were slightly further advance in the cycle with some central banks changing tack to easing mode. That compares with 11 meetings in April, where two central banks delivered a total of 50 bps.

Persons: Jean Boivin, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Hugh Lawson Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, BlackRock Investment Institute, UN, Thomson Locations: Australia, New Zealand, Norway, BlackRock, Israel, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia, Hungary

☆ Take Five: Sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The services component of the price data can gauge demand, but consumer and producer price data broadly paint a picture of deflation. April inflation data is out Thursday. At 10.1%, UK inflation is the highest in Western Europe. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ SELL IN MAYConventional wisdom has it that May is the ideal point to take profit on equities and lay low until later in the year. "Sell in May and go away" is based on the premise that the best six-month period of the year for stock market returns is November to April, while the leanest is May to October.

LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro area is too high for comfort, meaning markets expect the European Central Bank to deliver its seventh straight interest rate hike on Thursday. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates by on Thursday? Most analysts expect at least one more rate move after Thursday, even as the Federal Reserve looks set to pause its rate hike campaign. Market pricing suggests ECB rates will peak around 3.6% this year, and Belgium's central bank governor Pierre Wunsch says he wouldn't be surprised to see rates rise to 4%. Tuesday's bank lending should offer some clues but it might be too early to gauge the full impact of the March banking crisis on financing conditions.

If it is just a lagged statistical quirk, then the huge disparity in March inflation rates - of some 3-5 percentage points with western peers - should narrow sharply by yearend. With an election due next year, that may prove a big factor in any re-convergence of inflation rates if the cost of that is a much deeper economic downturn that rest. The question about Britain as an inflation outlier re-opens the age-old issue about just how that should be priced into sterling. For much of the past 10 years, G7 inflation rates were largely locked together in either their subdued pre-pandemic state or during the wild price spikes since. If UK inflation turns "idiosyncratic" among its peers during the much-vaunted normalization, then currency markets may need to rethink fundamental long-term assumptions about purchasing power, Gallo reckons.

☆ Take Five: How bad is it?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China and Britain release key economic data and officials from the Group of Seven nations talk climate goals. 1/ EARNINGS RECESSIONU.S. earnings season goes up a gear and the outlook is gloomy due to the regional banking crisis and the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades. Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-ago period, Refinitiv I/B/E/S data as of April 7 showed. In a sign of which way the authorities want lending rates to head, smaller regional banks have already cut deposit rates. China GDP vs 1-year MLF rate4/ NO ALARMS, NO SURPRISESIt's a big week for UK data, with February jobs figures on Tuesday and March inflation numbers Wednesday.

March saw six interest rate hikes across eight meetings by central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies. This follows six interest rate hikes delivering 250 bps of uplift across six meetings by G10 central banks in February. "By clearly separating financial and price stability goals and tools, major central banks carried on with rate hikes through the tumult." However, the world's top central banks are openly contemplating an early end to their rate hikes, not least because of the recent financial turmoil. This compares with February, when 13 emerging central banks met and only four hiked by a total of 175 bps.

☆ Signs of pain as easy cash era ends are growing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - The easy-cash era is over and markets are feeling the pinch from the sharpest jump in interest rate in decades. Since late 2021, big developed economies including the United States, euro area and Australia have raised rates by almost 3,300 basis points collectively. Japanese, European and U.S. banks stocks, while off recent lows, are still well below levels seen just before SVB's collapse. Reuters Graphics2/ DARLINGS NO MOREAs the SVB collapse showed, stress in the tech sector can quickly ripple out across the economy. Reuters Graphics4/ CRYPTO WINTERHaving benefited from an influx of cash during the easy-money era, cryptocurrencies have felt pain as rates rose last year, then gained on recent signs that tightening could end soon.

☆ Analysis: Rate rises pile pain on SME firms in U.S. and Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Summary SME vulnerability to rate hikes gone under radarUS, European credit conditions tighteningUK SMEs especially vulnerable -analystsLONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. and European small and medium-sized (SME) firms may be next to feel the pain of rapid interest rate rises, with analysts and investors warily watching for the impact of tighter credit conditions exacerbated by recent banking turmoil. In the U.S. the average rate that small businesses pay on bank loans rose from around 5% to 7.6% in 2022, and is likely to hit about 9.5% by mid-year, Jefferies analysts estimate. British SMEs, hurt by weak growth, double digit inflation and rising Bank of England rates, are seen as particularly vulnerable. "The Government needs to demonstrate that it is on the side of small businesses who are feeling stressed and under huge margin pressure," McTague added. HARD TIMESMeanwhile the rate of small business loan approval at big U.S. banks meanwhile fell in February for nine straight months and business loan approvals at small banks has also fallen, said online financing platform for small businesses Biz2Credit.

☆ Banking turmoil means recession fears are creeping back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here's what some closely watched market indicators say about recession risks:1/ CRUNCH TIME? Central bankers are closely monitoring the potential for banking stress, on top of lending conditions that were already tightening, to trigger a credit crunch. European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has also said the market turmoil may help fight inflation. Reuters Graphics3/ BANK STOCK ROUTWorld shares down just 0.1% in March and still sitting on gains this year seem to signal little recession risk, but worries are mounting under the surface. Global bank stocks, which had outperformed the MSCI World Stock Index before the turmoil, are down nearly 15% this month (.dMIWO0BK00PUS).

NatWest, supported by climate activist groups, is happy with 100% of facilitated emissions being attributed to the banks behind capital markets deals. Tonia Plakhotniuk, NatWest Markets' Vice President, Climate & ESG Capital Markets, said that 17% risked "a mismatch" because investors would not account for the remainder themselves. This includes Barclays, which apportions 33% of the capital markets financing to the bank and the rest to investors. Reuters GraphicsUntil banks agree on a compromise, experts say lenders could look to book more business as capital markets rather than loans. The Basel Committee's methodology for assessing Global Systemically Important Banks considers direct lending to be six times more important in its impact on the financial system than capital markets underwriting.

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