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Timothy A. Clary | Afp | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineWhen the numbers are this good, you've got to start with them. "Equities are eager to price in Trump's domestic growth policies," Barclays strategist Venu Krishna said in a note to clients. While the Trump rally has gotten off to a roaring good start, it remains to be seen when — and more importantly, how — it'll end.
Persons: Walter Lundon, Donald Trump, Timothy A, Clary, you've, Russell, Venu Krishna, Mislav Matejka, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, — CNBC's Sean Conlon, Yun Li, Jesse Pound, Hakyung Kim Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Trump, Barclays, JPMorgan, Minneapolis Locations: New York City
Andrew Kelly | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineWhen the numbers are this good, you've got to start with them. "Equities are eager to price in Trump's domestic growth policies," Barclays strategist Venu Krishna said in a note to clients. While the Trump rally has gotten off to a roaring good start, it remains to be seen when — and more importantly, how — it'll end.
Persons: Republican Donald Trump, Andrew Kelly, you've, Russell, Venu Krishna, Mislav Matejka, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, — CNBC's Sean Conlon, Yun Li, Jesse Pound, Hakyung Kim Organizations: Republican, U.S, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Trump, Barclays, JPMorgan, Minneapolis Locations: New York City, U.S
There's a common belief that lower borrowing costs benefit so-called growth stocks, as they're often capital-intensive. "History also suggests value should outperform growth, at least over the six months following the first rate cut," he said. If the economic situation becomes a "hard-landing," however, he said that growth stocks could outperform. If it normalizes (i.e., becomes more upward sloping), value should outperform growth," he said, referring to a situation where short-term rates are lower than long-term rates. "Lower multiple value stocks have greater upside and less risk than the pricier 'glamor growth' group for the foreseeable future," Ball said.
Persons: Adam Turnquist, Savita Subramanian, CNBC's, we've, Janjigian, Vanguard Russell, Venu Krishna, George Ball, Sanders Morris, Ball Organizations: U.S, Tech, CNBC Pro, LPL, BofA Securities, Greenwich Wealth Management, Vanguard, Index, Barclays, Krishna, Presidential Locations: U.S . Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't see the point in chasing the market when valuations are 'quite full', says Barclays' KrishnaVenu Krishna, Barclays head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Krishna's price target for the S&P 500, if the market's broadened out, and if bond yields will be a headwind for equity markets.
Persons: Krishna Venu Krishna Organizations: Barclays
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBarclay's Venu Krishna on markets: Several signs point to a short squeezeVenu Krishna, Barclays head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the current markets, the likelihood of rate cuts, and more.
Persons: Venu Krishna Organizations: Barclays
Strategist Venu Krishna raised his 2024 S & P 500 target to 5,600 from 5,300. The S & P 500 has already rallied more than 16% year to date, reaching record levels and blowing past many Wall Street estimates. Investors have piled into tech stocks this year amid expectations that artificial intelligence would bolster corporate profits. The S & P 500 tech sector is up 29% in 2024, with AI-related stocks Nvidia and Super Micro Computer more than doubling. Barclays also set its 2025 S & P 500 target at 6,500.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna Organizations: Barclays, CNBC Pro Market, Survey, Big Tech, Nvidia Locations: Monday's
Small-caps historically decline before and after the first interest rate cut, Barclays reported. This argues against the growing narrative that the easing cycle will boost small-caps, the bank said. AdvertisementBarclays ResearchTheir finding opposes many prevailing viewpoints on Wall Street, where rising bets of lower interest rates have sent investors piling into the small-cap trade. In part, falling interest rates might help ease debt burdens, but they can also signal a cooling economy — which favors large-cap exposure. Market veteran Ed Yardeni wrote this week that the small-caps trade has no legs, given the sector's lackluster forward earnings, revenue, and profit margins.
Persons: , Venu Krishna, Russell, June's, Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni, Liz Young Thomas Organizations: Barclays, Service, NASDAQ, Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBig Tech's valuations are 'quite full' but reasonable, says Barclay's Venu KrishnaVenu Krishna, Barclays head of U.S. equity, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why valuations look 'pretty full', if there's downside risk to Krishna's year-end target, and what it all means for asset allocation.
Persons: Barclay's Venu Krishna Venu Krishna Organizations: Barclays
Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.
Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBarclays' Venu Krishna: S&P 500's 'sensitivity to CPI remains high'Venu Krishna, Barclays head of US equity strategy, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss markets, inflation, the Fed, earnings, and more.
Persons: Venu Krishna Organizations: Barclays
Stock futures were little changed on Sunday, with Wall Street looking toward fresh inflation data this week. Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures hovered near the flatline. Investors will look for insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy moving forward with April's consumer price index report due out on Wednesday. Results so far have helped stocks remain resilient despite the inflation overhang. 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported as of Friday, with neatly 80% of firms surpassing Wall Street forecasts, per FactSet data.
Persons: Dow, Venu Krishna Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Traders, Fed, Wall, Barclays Locations: New York City
In an effort to navigate a market that remains highly concentrated under Big Tech's dominance, but also ripe for stock pickers, Barclays has dozens of stocks that share similar characteristics to the tech heavyweights. However, some select Big Tech remained fairly strong throughout the sell-off, with stocks like Alphabet and Apple bucking the downtrend. While Big Tech valuations still appear reasonable to Barclays analyst Venu Krishna, he pointed out that they're "not the only game in town," and suggested investors diversify their portfolios to beat their benchmarks. Yet, market returns, earnings upside, and institutional investor exposure remain highly concentrated in Big Tech," Krishna said in a Tuesday note. Aside from allowing investors to diversify, these stocks come with strong fundamentals based on profitability, balance sheet strength, cash conversion, and growth-adjusted valuation characteristics that closely resemble those of Big Tech stocks, the firm said.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, Dennis Geiger, Geiger, outperformance, Adrienne Yih, Yih, Goldman, TJX Organizations: Barclays, Big Tech, Inter, UBS, Software, Oracle, Arista Networks, JPMorgan, Arista, TJX Companies, Goods Locations: Big Tech, SPX, Ulta
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRemain favorably inclined to Big Tech as fundamentals remain strong, says Barclays' Venu KrishnaVenu Krishna, Barclays head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss if this is a period when tech will underperform the broader market, how to play the tech market, and much more.
Persons: Venu Krishna Venu Krishna Organizations: Big Tech, Barclays
Despite Trump facing legal issues on multiple fronts, including a federal indictment that alleges he illegally conspired to discount votes in the 2020 election, he appears to be cruising to the Republican nomination once again. Raymond James was listed by Goldman and in Barclays' Trump stock basket, according to the Jan. 30 note. A Trump term could benefit energy giants such as Chevron , but also smaller players such as Devon Energy or coal companies such as Peabody Energy , according to Goldman. Another group of industrial companies could get a piece of government spending from expansion of the Mexico border wall under a second Trump administration. Caterpillar was one of the companies involved previously, according to Goldman.
Persons: Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Venu Krishna, Goldman, Wells, Piper Sandler, Raymond James Organizations: Trump, Republican, Barclays, Federal Trade Commission, Boston, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Energy, Republicans, Chevron, Devon Energy, Peabody Energy, Steel Dynamics, Broadcom, Caterpillar Locations: China, Cleveland, Mexico
The sheer persistence of the equity rally, with the S & P 500 up 16 of 18 weeks and refusing to succumb to supposed late-February seasonal weakness, has converted the cautious. Still, by some lights, stocks' valuation is one of the better sentiment indicators, and by that measure the investment community is pretty enthusiastic. More simply, we continue to see elevated but not alarming P/Es in the S & P 500 broadly while the median P/E of the top 10 names in the index remains close to past peaks." Coming at a time when the S & P 500 is more than 13% above its 200-day moving average — pretty stretched — and we haven't had even a 3% pullback since October. The "right" cyclical sectors are leading (industrials and consumer discretionary in addition to tech), and the equal-weight S & P 500 is nosing toward its old high.
Persons: Scott Rubner, maven, Goldman Sachs, there's, it's, hustled, gunning, BofA's Savita Subramanian, Citi's Scott Chronert, Barclays Venu Krishna, Lori Calvasina, haven't, I've, We've, Stocks, Organizations: Micro, Dell Technologies, ARM Holdings, Bank of America, Barclays, Big Tech, Tech, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P 500 to hit 5300 because of US economy and Big Tech stocks, says Barclays' Venu KrishnaVenu Krishna, Barclays head of U.S. equity strategy, joins CNBC's "Money Movers" to discuss his bullish call on the S&P 500.
Persons: Venu Krishna Venu Krishna Organizations: Big Tech, Barclays
The market's hot start to 2024 will continue thanks to a strong tech sector and a resilient economy despite high rates, according to Barclays. The bank raised its S & P 500 target to 5,300 from 4,800. Year to date, the S & P 500 is up 6.3%, led by even more gains in tech amid excitement around artificial intelligence and the prospects of it bolstering profits. The S & P 500 tech sector is up 9.6% in 2024, outperforming the 10 other sectors. Krishna also raised his full-year earnings forecast for the S & P 500 to $235 per share from $233.
Persons: It's, Venu Krishna, Krishna Organizations: Barclays, CNBC Market, UBS, Big Tech, Tech, Nvidia Locations: Monday's
As China's property market and deflation woes continue to rattle investors, India's growth outlook appears all the more impressive. Last year's annual report attributed strong revenue growth partially to expansion in the Middle East, India, and Asia, Krishna wrote. "More than revenue, India is an important area for sourcing talent" as well, Krishna wrote. Growth potential For investors looking to gain exposure to the domestic stock market, Indian equities themselves aren't especially cheap though. "You're paying for the growth potential in India, certainly.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, Ahya, Bernstein, , Narendra Modi, Bill Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick, Quincy Krosby, Venu Krishna, Aecom, Krishna, Tim Long, Long, Simon Coles, Krosby, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, CNBC's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investment, Logan Capital Management, Modi, Infrastructure Pipeline, Aecom, Barclays, Cisco Systems, Juniper Networks, India —, Semiconductor, Micron Technology, Qualcomm, Logan Capital Locations: India, China, Asia, Philadelphia, South Carolina . U.S, Dallas, East, Asia Pacific, Japan, Coles , U.S, U.S, IShares
The equity market is due for a cooldown, according to several strategists, who are telling clients to begin positioning themselves defensively in preparation for a slow-growth earnings environment next year. The S & P 500 has rallied almost 24% this year, but is up 11% in the fourth quarter alone. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , for example, is up 24% this quarter, but still down 12% for the year. According to Calvasina, industrials are the most overvalued sector in the S & P 500, while energy and communication services offer the most attractive valuations. .GSPHC YTD mountain S & P Health Care sector performance this year.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, haven't, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Barclays, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Big Tech, Regional Banking, RBC Capital, P Health Care, JPMorgan Locations: Krishna, SPX, Europe
(PRO subscribers can view the official 2024 strategist survey here . ) "Lifting our 12-month S & P 500 target to 5100 as inflation falls, the Fed turns dovish, and real yields plunge," Kostin wrote. Other Wall Street firms with similarly bullish forecasts include Citigroup and BMO Capital Markets, which each have S & P 500 price targets of 5,100. Barclays' Venu Krishna was even more bearish, anticipating the S & P 500 would fall to 3,725. Entering the penultimate trading week of the year, the S & P 500 is almost 23% higher in 2023, while the Nasdaq Composite has advanced almost 42%.
Persons: , Stocks, Sam Stovall, Monday, Stovall, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, America's Savita Subramanian, JPMorgan's, Bujas, Morgan Stanley, BofA's Subramanian —, Venu Krishna, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Dow Industrials Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, CFRA Research, Goldman, Oppenheimer Asset Management, Citigroup, BMO Capital Markets, Bank, America's, Nvidia, Microsoft, Barclays, Nasdaq Locations: Friday's
For investors cheering stocks' strong rally into the year end, Barclays warned that it could be eating into 2024's return. A number of macro news events sparked a relief rally in equities as 2023 begins to wrap up, with the S & P 500 registering four straight weeks of gains and climbing 8.5% in November. "Combined with year-end seasonality, the surge in institutional flows could push equities over their skis, essentially 'borrowing' 2024 returns and leaving less room for upside next year," he added. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The firm expects only single-digit returns next year as modest economic deceleration offsets the benefit of easing inflation. Barclays raised its 2024 S & P 500 price target to 4,800, from 4,500 previously.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, dovish, Treasury QRA, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Treasury, Big Tech, CNBC Pro's, Survey, Wall
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings not providing 'meaningful upside catalysts' to the market, says Barclays' Venu KrishnaVenu Krishna, Barclays Head of US Equity Strategy, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Venu Krishna Venu Krishna Organizations: Barclays, US Equity
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailProspects for both bonds and stocks are starting to look more attractive: Wilmington's Meghan ShueMeghan Shue, Wilmington Trust EVP, and Venu Krishna, Barclays Investment Bank head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Meghan Shue Meghan Shue, Venu Krishna Organizations: Wilmington Trust, Barclays Investment Bank Locations: Wilmington
Investors are awaiting Microsoft (MSFT.O), Google-owner Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) earnings this week, which will show whether their stocks justify sky-high valuations. The Nasdaq (.NDX) lost steam during the session as investors looked to non-tech stocks for bargains, lifting sectors from energy to banks. Barclays' head of U.S. equity strategy Venu Krishna said in a note to clients that investors are differentiating between tech companies. A few Big Tech names are driving all of the earnings upside, while the outlook for the "Rest of the Tech" is deteriorating, he said. Helping the Dow (.DJI) notch its longest winning streak since February 2017, Chevron (CVX.N) gained as the oil giant posted upbeat preliminary quarterly earnings over the weekend.
Persons: Barbie, Randy Frederick, Venu Krishna, You've, Carol Schleif, Toymaker Mattel, AMC's, Carolina Mandl, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shounak Dasgupta, Anil D'Silva, Richard Chang Organizations: Chevron, Dow, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Microsoft, Google, Nasdaq, Barclays, Big Tech, Tech, Investors, BMO Family Office, Reuters, AMC Entertainment, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Bengaluru
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'We expect greater downside from here', says Barclays' Venu Krishna on new S&P 500 targetMeghan Shue, Wilmington Trust EVP, and Venu Krishna, Barclays head of U.S. equity strategy, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the day's market action, their latest market calls and more.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Meghan Shue Organizations: Barclays, Wilmington Trust Locations: Wilmington
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