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☆ China just announced a $1.4 trillion plan to rescue its local governments
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China has announced a local government debt rescue program days after Trump won the US election. Trump has threatened tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods, complicating China's economic gloom. AdvertisementChina announced a debt rescue program to the tune of $1.4 trillion to save heavily indebted local governments and boost its economy. The plan also allows local governments to tap 4 trillion yuan in special local bonds over five years. China's local governments have been struggling to repay their LGFV debt, which the International Monetary Fund estimated to be around 60 trillion as of last year.

Persons: Trump, —, Li Kiang, Donald Trump's, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's Organizations: Trump, Service, China, China's, National People's Congress, International Monetary Fund, Reuters Locations: China, Xinhua, Beijing, Washington, Asia, Japan

☆ China is boosting market sentiment by playing up hopes for stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Chinese Premier Li Qiang spurred market expectations for more stimulus in a speech. China's services activity and business confidence rose in October, boosting market sentiment. Beijing is monitoring the US presidential election and may adjust its fiscal stimulus based on its outcome. He also drummed up market expectations for more economic stimulus, saying Beijing has "ample space for fiscal policy and monetary policy." AdvertisementBeijing is likely to roll out a bigger stimulus to buffer market volatility if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, Varathan wrote.

Persons: Li Qiang, —, Li's, Wang Zhe, Wang, Hong, Harris, Vishnu, Mizuho Bank's, Donald Trump, Varathan Organizations: Service, P Global, Protesters, Caixin Insight, Deutsche Bank, PMI, National People's Congress, Trump Presidency, Reuters Locations: Beijing, China, Asia, Japan

☆ The markets saw right through China's latest economic support hype
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China's stock markets slumped after a 10-day rally that was driven by Beijing's stimulus announcement in September. Retail investors dominate China's markets, influencing sentiment and market movements. AdvertisementChina's top leadership has a problem with its economic stimulus: its own investors at home saw right through the hype this week. China's domestic stock markets slumped on Wednesday after a 10-day blitz culminated in a two-year high. China's domestic stock markets are dominated by over 200 million mom-and-pop retail investors, who account for about 70% of the trading volume.

Persons: —, weren't, Jun Rong, that's, Vishnu, Li Qiang, Hele Qiao, Qiao Organizations: Investors, Service, People's Bank of China, Reform Commission, BofA Global Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Asia, Japan, Xinhua, Greater China, China's

☆ Wall Street giants like Goldman quickly up their bets on Chinese markets amid stimulus promises
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Goldman Sachs is the latest in a flurry of calls to upgrade China stocks after the Asian giant's recent wave of stimulus measures. Goldman predicts that Chinese stocks could even jump a further 15% to 20%, given the powerful comeback rally that has already occurred. It says the MSCI China index could have another 15% upside, and the CSI 300 index could enjoy a further 18% upside. In a Monday note, Citi also increased its price target for Chinese stocks. Following that, Wall Street started getting bullish on those stocks again, with Morgan Stanley predicting Chinese stocks are set to rally 10% and more.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, —, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: CSI, Citi, Wall, BlackRock Investment Institute, Mizuho Securities Locations: China, China's

☆ The Fed will have to cut 'more and sooner' than the dot plot has suggested: Strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will have to cut 'more and sooner' than the dot plot has suggested: StrategistVishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, says "we're not sold on 50 basis points all the way through for this year, even though I think the [U.S. Federal Reserve] will have to cut more and sooner than the dot plot has suggested."

Persons: Vishnu Varathan, we're Organizations: Mizuho Bank, U.S . Federal

☆ China's stimulus isn't enough for its economic woes. But its stock rally could help.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China's aggressive stimulus measures have sparked a significant stock market rally. Still, traders, investors, and speculators have sent China's stock market to its best month in nearly a decade, signaling that the market players think that Beijing's moves are a "bazooka." The People's Bank of China's stock market stimulus was unusual. An active stock market and improved investor confidence will improve expectations for economic development," the media outlet wrote. Mainland China's stock markets will also be closed from Tuesday to Monday.

Persons: —, Vishnu, Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Criss Wang, Data.TS, Varathan Organizations: Service, CSI, People's Bank, China Securities Journal, Chinese Communist Party, Hong Kong Stock Exchange Locations: China, Asia, Japan

☆ China's stock markets are partying like it's 2008, overwhelming systems
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China's stock markets surged this week, marking the best weekly performance since late 2008. AdvertisementChina's stock markets closed sharply higher Friday, notching their best week in 16 years as investors joined the rally party. The stock market party overwhelmed tech systemsThe stock market party got too hot to handle. AdvertisementFurthermore, the US Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates, which has historically benefited Chinese markets, they added. So even if Beijing's stimulus isn't enough for China's economy, a liquidity or leverage-driven market rally could still be "very powerful," they wrote.

Persons: —, Vishnu Varathan, Hong, Hao Hong, Pan Gongsheng, Data.TS, Freya Beamish, Rory Green Organizations: Service, Grow Investment, Shanghai Stock Exchange, of America, Bank of America, US Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China Locations: China, Beijing, Asia, Japan, Shanghai, India

☆ The Chinese yuan surged to a 16-month high, but Beijing may not be happy about it
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China's stimulus package has boosted market sentiment and pushed the Chinese yuan to a 16-month high. But a strong yuan could hurt exports, a key pillar of China's economy, amid weak domestic demand. AdvertisementChina's massive stimulus package for its battered economy has boosted market sentiment and injected confidence into the Chinese yuan. This means $1 could buy fewer Chinese yuan. A strong yuan is bad for exportsEven though a strong yuan signals confidence in China's economy, analysts aren't sure the gains will hold.

Persons: —, Pan Gongsheng, Vishnu, Varathan, Larry Hu, Hu, aren't, Pan, Macquarie's Hu Organizations: People's Bank of China, Service, US Federal Reserve, Macquarie Group, Lombard, Bloomberg Locations: Asia, Japan, China, Beijing, Swiss, China's

☆ Markets are rebounding after Monday's massive meltdown, making rate decisions harder for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewMarkets are rebounding after Monday's meltdown, injecting challenges into central banks' interest-rate decisions. The market volatility is due to a mix of factors including poor earnings results from several tech giants and a weak July payroll report. AdvertisementSome analysts are speculating that the BOJ rate cut was because it was under political pressure to shore up the floundering yen, Bloomberg reported on Monday. Related storiesGoing forward, the BOJ could have a harder time with the timing of its rate hike decisions. Talks of an emergency rate cutThe market selloff has also made the Fed's rate hike timing harder.

Persons: —, Kospi, Taiwan's Taiex, Kyle Rodda, It's, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's, Capital.com's Rodda Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve, —, Bloomberg, Nikkei, Japan's, of Finance, Financial Services Agency Locations: Japan, Asia

☆ Global markets are off to a terrible start this week, and Japan is partly to blame
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewGlobal markets are off to a terrible start to the week. Stock markets are crashing across Asia after Japan's interest-rate hike last week contributed to a selloff that got worse and worse. AdvertisementInvestors are also on edge before the US markets open later in the global day. Global carry trade unwindingThe Bank of Japan raised its interest rate from between 0% and 0.1% to 0.25% on Wednesday — the highest level in 15 years. Japan kept interest rates ultra-low for decades following the implosion of an asset bubble in the 1990s that contributed to persistent deflation.

Persons: —, Kospi, India's Sensex, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's Organizations: Service, Stock, Business, IG Australia, Bloomberg, CSI, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, ING Locations: Asia, Japan

☆ Global stock markets are sliding as Japan suffers biggest fall since 1987
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Huileng Tan | Polly Thompson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewJapan's main stock market index suffered its biggest fall since 1987, closing 12.4% lower on Monday, while markets in Asia and Europe also fell sharply. US stock markets sunk at the end of last week as investors digested a streak of negative economic data and disappointing earnings from Big Tech companies. The Chinese stock markets were already under pressure this year due to the country's economic troubles. Japan kept interest rates ultra-low for decades following the implosion of an asset bubble in the 1990s that contributed to persistent deflation. AdvertisementThe BoJ's rate hike has also fanned further risk-off sentiment in global stock markets.

Persons: —, Tony Sycamore, Taiwan's Taiex, Paris, it's, Sycamore, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's Organizations: Service, Nikkei, Business, Big Tech, Nasdaq, IG Australia, Bloomberg TV, Kospi, CSI, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Bank of Japan, ING Locations: Asia, Europe, Frankfurt, London, Japan

☆ The 'Trump trade' is winding down, and the Fed's rate plans are back in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewBarely a week after the failed assassination of former US President Donald Trump, investors are already moving on from the "Trump trade." The "Trump trade" refers to investor strategies that reflect the market consequences of a second Trump presidency. Schumacher said the "Trump trade" has run its course and is "about done for now." Focus on Fed interest rate decisionTo be sure, a second Trump presidency — including his administration's trade and tariff policies — would have important implications for the macroeconomy and markets, say most analysts. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the central bank would cut "in the not-too-distant future."

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Trump, Michael Schumacher, Schumacher, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Federal Reserve, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Fed, Swiss, UBS Locations: Wells Fargo, Asia, Japan

☆ India wants to be the new China. Modi's shock election result shows it won't be easy.
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The growth is in part thanks to a shift in supply chains and investment flows as companies try to stop relying solely on China. India's stock markets tanked on the shock election results, with the benchmark Sensex index crashing over 5% in one day on Tuesday following the news. Despite the knee-jerk reaction, most analysts are optimistic about India's economic outlook given that Modi is still in charge. He said India will do better to capitalize on its services industry, especially since so many Indians are English speakers.

Persons: —, Narendra Modi's, Modi, Atman Trivedi, China, Council's Trivedi, Vishnu Varathan, Raghuram Rajan, NPR's, It's, Rajan Organizations: Service, Indian, Business, Bharatiya Janata Party, —, Atlantic, Asia Center, Centre, Monitoring, Coalition, Albright, Group, Mizuho Bank, United Nations Population Fund, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Central Bank of India, International Monetary Fund Locations: China, India, Communist China, Asia, Japan

☆ Yen poised for best week in over a year; dollar waits on U.S. jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Elsewhere, the dollar lost ground against most of its peers and was headed for its worst week in nearly two months, in part due to the sharp rise in the yen this week. The euro ticked up 0.05% to last trade at $1.0730, and was eyeing a weekly gain of 0.35%. "Recent Fed speech has acknowledged the lack of progress on inflation and the desire to maintain the current level of policy rates for longer. Down Under, the Australian dollar edged 0.07% higher to $0.6570, and was on track to gain nearly 0.6% for the week. The New Zealand dollar tacked on a marginal 0.03% to $0.5963, and was eyeing a 0.4% weekly gain.

Persons: Tokyo's, Vishnu Varathan, Jerome Powell, Sterling steadied, Tai Hui Organizations: Traders, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Mizuho Bank, Federal, Fed, Morgan Asset Management, New Zealand Locations: Asia, tenterhooks, Tokyo, Japan

☆ Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore

☆ CNBC Daily Open: A projection is not a promise
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineU.S. Federal Reserve officials are dampening rate cut expectations again, and again. In comments echoing those of the Federal Open Market Committee's two weeks ago, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she expects cuts this year — but wants to see more convincing evidence that inflation has been subdued. "Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise," Daly said.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Mary Daly, Daly, Loretta Mester, Vishnu Varathan, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland Federal, Malaysian, U.S Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Japan

The BOJ will now look to utilize its short-term interest rate as its primary policy tool. It will employ an interest rate of 0.1% to current account balances held by financial institutions at the central bank from March 21, while encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate (another interest rate used as a policy lever by the bank) to remain at around 0 to 0.1% — effectively raising interest rates from -0.1% previously. It would resort to "nimble responses" in the form of increased Japan government bond purchases and fixed-rate purchases of JGBs, among other things, if there is a rapid rise in long-term interest rates. Japanese investors have looked elsewhere for better returns given years of artificially depressed interest rates in their home market. The Fed is due to announce its own interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Persons: Japan Alexander Spatari, Kazuo Ueda, Rob Carnell, BOJ, Ueda, Michael Brown, —, JGBs, Vishnu Varathan, Hayden Briscoe, Briscoe Organizations: Japan's, Japan Inc, Asia, ING, CNBC, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, Bank of America, Barclays, U.S . Federal, UBS Asset Management Locations: Dotonbori, Japan, Japan's, U.S, Mizuho's, Asia

☆ China has vowed to save its crashing stock market, but investors are just not convinced
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewChina's stock market watchdog upped its game over the weekend after its brutal week of selloff, vowing to prevent "abnormal market fluctuations" — but stock market investors don't seem quite convinced. These continued gyrations in China and Hong Kong's stock markets have widened losses that are now totaling $7 trillion following an extended market meltdown since their peaks in 2021, as foreign investors beeline for the exit. Still, Beijing's frequent pronouncements on market stabilization may not be a bad thing. Advertisement"The frequency of these statements may indicate market stabilization is becoming more important for policymakers," wrote analysts at Dutch bank ING wrote on Monday. "Formalization of a potential market stabilization fund could provide a short-term boost for markets but investor sentiment remains downbeat for now, awaiting improvement in fundamentals," the ING analysts added.

Persons: —, selloff, Vishnu Varathan, Nomura Organizations: Service, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Business, Asia Asia, Mizuho Bank, Nomura, ING, Bloomberg Locations: China, Asia, Japan, Shanghai, Hong, Beijing

☆ Mizuho says China's recent policy support is driven by its desire for social stability
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMizuho says China's recent policy support is driven by its desire for social stabilityChina isn't boosting the stock market for its own sake, says Vishnu Varathan of Mizuho Bank.

Persons: Vishnu Organizations: Mizuho, Mizuho Bank Locations: China

☆ A war over Taiwan would be even more damaging to the US economy than COVID was, Bloomberg forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A war over Taiwan could wipe out 6.7% from the US economy in its first year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. AdvertisementThe US economy could take a major hit if war breaks out over Taiwan, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis published on Tuesday. US GDP could take a 6.7% hit in the first year of conflict if Washington gets drawn into the war, Bloomberg forecasts. AdvertisementOverall, a war over Taiwan could hit the world's economy to the tune of $10 trillion — or about 10% of global GDP — Bloomberg forecasts. Bloomberg Economics' analysis is based on geopolitical considerations and economic modeling.

Persons: —, Xi Jinping, William Lai Ching, Lai, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Democratic Progressive Party, Mizuho Bank Locations: Taiwan, China, Washington, South Korea, Japan, Beijing, Asia

The New Zealand dollar was last up 1.1% at a four-month high of $0.6207, having blown past resistance. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, slid to fresh multi-month lows on the euro, yen, sterling, the Australian dollar, yuan and Swiss franc. Overnight Fed Governor Christopher Waller - an influential and previously hawkish voice at the U.S. central bank - told the American Enterprise Institute that rate cuts could begin in a matter of months, provided inflation keeps falling. Fed funds futures rallied on the remark to price more than hundred basis points of cuts in 2024 and 40% chance they begin as soon as March. Two-year Treasury yields fell sharply and along with the dollar fell further still in Asia.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Governor Waller's, Tapas Strickland, Jerome Powell, Waller, CONDITIONALITY Waller's, Seng, Vishnu Varathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: New Zealand, Nikkei, U.S ., Swiss, U.S, American Enterprise Institute, Governor, National Australia Bank, Fed, HK, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Sydney, China, Meituan, Zealand, Singapore

☆ Beijing is making its biggest move yet to patch up the property crisis threatening to blow up China's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China is drafting a "white list" of property developers for bank financing, per Bloomberg. China's massive property sector is in a slump, adding to the country's post-COVID economic woes. AdvertisementChina's finally starting to do something about the three-year property crisis that's been weighing on its COVID-scarred economy. China's real-estate sector has been mired in a crisis since the second half 2021 when a liquidity crisis at Evergrande — once China's second-largest developer — came into public view. AdvertisementStill, not everyone is convinced Beijing's property "white list" will be the solution to China's property problems.

Persons: —, China's, Nomura, it's, Rory Green, Green, White Knight, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, BI, Mizuho Bank, Business Locations: China, Beijing, Asia

☆ Dollar beaten to over two-month low as Fed cut bets take charge
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Against the weaker greenback, the euro hit its highest since August at $1.09365, while the yen firmed at a one-month high of 148.68 per dollar. The Japanese yen remained on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and was last 0.3% higher at 149.17. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1700 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1703 per dollar. The Aussie was last 0.5% higher at $0.6546, having struck a three-month high of $0.6563 earlier in the session, while the kiwi gained 0.54% to $0.6025.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China

☆ Dollar stumbles to over two-month low as markets eye Fed cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The yuan struck three-month highs in both the onshore and offshore markets, propped up by China's central bank, while the Australian dollar similarly scaled a three-month top against the falling greenback. "If we do see risk appetite improve again, then the dollar can definitely weaken further." Against the weaker dollar, the euro rose to an over two-month high of $1.0924, ahead of flash PMI readings in the euro zone due later this week. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar edged roughly 0.5% higher to $0.6546, its strongest level since August, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.52% to $0.60235. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1753 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1745 per dollar.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Sterling, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China

Euro zone business activity data took a surprise downturn this month, suggesting the bloc may slip into recession, creating a drag on the outlook for oil demand. Overall, the region's oil refineries have been consuming less crude than a year ago amid lacklustre economic growth, Euroilstock data has shown. Falling crude oil stockpiles in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer also supported prices. That went against eight analysts polled by Reuters who had estimated on average that crude inventories were up by about 200,000 barrels for the week. Gasoline inventories dropped by 4.2 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by about 2.3 million barrels, the API data showed.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Israel, Vishnu Varathan, durably, Varathan, Stephanie Kelly, Muyu Xu, Tom Hogue Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, West Texas, Iran, Mizuho Bank, American Petroleum Institute, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, Gaza, East, Israel, Palestinian, Saudi Arabia, China, U.S

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