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In reality, the data — no matter how bad or good — probably won’t make an ounce of difference for most voters. Most voters likely don’t even follow the overall economic trends, let alone one month’s data, he said. Instead, their views on the economy are shaped by how far their dollars are stretching today compared to recent times. That’s a higher share compared to when voters were asked the same question in 2022. But the average American does not wait for news to come out to form an opinion on how the economy is functioning, she said.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, , , Micah Roberts, Republican pollster, Roberts, That’s, don’t, Joanne Hsu Organizations: New, New York CNN, Harvard Center, American Political Studies, Republican, NBC News, CNN, University of Michigan, Consumers Locations: New York
Inflation outlook improves in University of Michigan survey
  + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation outlook improves in University of Michigan surveyCNBC's Rick Santelli reports the latest consumer sentiment data to cross the tape.
Persons: Rick Santelli Organizations: University of Michigan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer sentiment dimmed in June, University of Michigan survey showsCNBC's Rick Santelli reports on the latest economic data to cross the tape.
Persons: Rick Santelli Organizations: University of Michigan
Opinion | The Great Interest Rate Debate
  + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Paul Krugman | Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday to talk about interest rates, which many voters are really frustrated about. People are saying high rates make it hard to buy a home or car or deal with debts. We eventually need to get into the underlying economics — why are interest rates high, and will they stay there? But first, on how interest rates influence people’s views, we need to deal with an odd aspect of the situation. High interest rates are, indeed, a burden on some Americans, especially first-time home buyers.
Persons: Peter Coy, Paul, we’ve, They’re, they’re, Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Krugman, Peter Organizations: Fed, University of Michigan, Biden
"The lower-end customer is really being stretched," Anderson said on an earnings call with analysts Wednesday. "We've got to deliver value, and we've got to really display that in how we go to market, and when you walk in the store, what you see. This, he said, indicates that when consumers see the value of products, the more they have to "stretch their dollar." Though there has been some indication that aspects of the U.S. economy are improving, consumer sentiment has been lagging. In fact, consumer sentiment dropped more than 10% in May, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.
Persons: Joel Anderson, underperformance, Anderson, We've, we've, Organizations: Revenue, Consumers, University of Michigan Survey Locations: U.S
Read previewInflation and interest rates are still high, but Americans shouldn't count on any relief just yet. Advertisement"The status of the battle against inflation requires that interest rates remain elevated in the near-term," Hamrick said. "The first quarter in the United States was notable for its lack of further progress on inflation," Powell said during the panel. But while job seekers and workers may find this cooldown concerning, that moderation is also welcome and the labor market is still strong. "Paired with high borrowing costs — like high interest rates on your credit cards — and the current economy can feel quite uncomfortable," Renter added.
Persons: , That's, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, Jerome Powell, Powell, Joanne Hsu, Nick Bunker, Ted Rossman, Rossman, Elizabeth Renter, Renter, it's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, Business, Federal, University of Michigan, North America Locations: Amsterdam, United States,
Dow crosses 40,000 for the first time
  + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
New York CNN —The Dow broke past the 40,000 threshold Thursday morning for the first time ever, fueled by an encouraging inflation report. It also highlights a notable contrast between sentiment on Wall Street and Main Street. Dow 100: The Dow first closed in triple digits in January 1906. The Dow nearly matched that in 2017, rising 25%. Dow 30,000: Nov. 24, 2020: Covid sent the stock market plunging in the spring of 2020.
Persons: Dow, stoking, , Gary Pzegeo, John Williams, Tom Barkin, ” Tyler Schipper, Thomas, Hogan, Teddy Roosevelt, Richard Nixon, Trump, Covid Organizations: New, New York CNN, Markets, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CIBC Private Wealth, , Walmart, Airlines, Big Tech, York Fed, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Dow, University of Michigan, CNN, CPI, University of St, Riley Financial, Wall, Microsoft, Chevron, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Federal, Woolworth, Eastman Kodak Locations: New York, United States, Minnesota, Chevron —, AFP
New York CNN —If voters return former President Donald Trump to the White House, he’s promised to launch an unprecedented crackdown on immigration and even conduct mass deportations. Trump recently told Time that he would aim to deport 15 million to 20 million people, perhaps by using the National Guard. Even though consumer prices are no longer skyrocketing, the cumulative impact of three years of high inflation is painful. “Most Americans view high inflation and high prices as unfair. But immigration remains a major concern for voters in the 2024 election and Trump has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.
Persons: Donald Trump, he’s, Trump, , Mark Zandi, “ It’s, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, You’d, , Karoline Leavitt, Joe Biden “, ” Leavitt, , Joe Biden, Zandi, Trump’s, criminologists, Biden, Jerome Powell, Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, National Guard, Federal Reserve, CNN, RSM, Trump, Social Security, University of Michigan, Labor Department ., The Hamilton, , Hamilton, Security, Congressional, Office, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, China, Covid, Mexico, United States
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by nearly 2 basis points at 4.485%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.844% after falling by more than 2 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly Monday as investors looked to key inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials slated for the week. Investors awaited key economic data due this week, including April's consumer price index, which is expected Wednesday and will provide fresh insights into whether consumer inflation is easing or sticky. April's producer price index, which tracks inflation on a wholesale level, is also due this week.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan Survey
Consumers aren't buying it, per the latest monthly survey of how Americans feel about the economy. These charts show how gloomy Americans feel, despite the numbers. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIndicators be damned: US consumers are still gloomy about the state of the economy. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu Organizations: Consumers, Service, University of Michigan, Business
Consumer sentiment slumped as inflation expectations rose, despite otherwise strong signals in the economy, according to a closely watched survey released Friday. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May posted an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, down from 77.2 in April and well off the Dow Jones consensus call for 76. Along with the downbeat sentiment measure, the outlook for inflation across the one- and five-year horizons increased. The inflation readings represent the biggest pitfall for policymakers as the Federal Reserve contemplates the near-term path of monetary policy. The next important data point for inflation comes Wednesday when the Labor Department releases its consumer price index report for April.
Persons: Dow Jones, Joanne Hsu, Paul Ashworth, Jeffrey Roach, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: The University of Michigan Survey, Dow, North, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, LPL, Fed, Labor Department Locations: North America, Michigan
Additionally, consumers are bracing for even higher price increases in the year ahead compared to readings from prior months, the survey found. However, the latest reading is still better than last May, when inflation was running at 4%, versus the latest reading of 3.5%. Long-run inflation expectations also rose, to 3.1% from 3.0% in April. Since inflation expectations can effectively control the pace of price hikes, businesses take those expectations into account when pricing goods and services. The survey suggests that the recent optimism consumers had about the state of the economy is waning.
Persons: Biden, FactSet, it’s, they’re, Joanne Hsu Organizations: New, New York CNN, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Fed, Consumers Locations: New York
Financials also did well, with Club stocks Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo trading at new 52-week highs. Portfolio name Starbucks should take a page out of this book, lowering its price of coffee and food to attract more customers. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, they've, Lael Brainard, Financials, Morgan Stanley, Wells, McDonald's, Cramer, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Robert Gauthier Organizations: CNBC, University of Michigan Survey, National Economic Council, Club, Bloomberg, Starbucks, Disney, Comcast, Hulu, Jim Cramer's Charitable, McDonalds, Rte, Los Angeles Times, Getty Locations: Wells Fargo, United States, Azusa , CA
CNN —President Joe Biden sat down with CNN’s Erin Burnett on Wednesday for a rare, one-on-one television interview with a member of the national media. But Biden expanded, suggesting protesters have gone too far:There is a legitimate right to free speech and protest. There’s a legitimate right to do that and they have a right to do that. But there’s not a legitimate right to use hate speech. There is not a legitimate right to block people’s access to class.
Persons: Joe Biden, CNN’s Erin Burnett, Biden, Donald Trump, We’ve, they’re, ” Biden, , SSRS, Jennifer Agiesta, He’s, I’ve, Trump, won’t, , , Joe ”, There’s, there’s, Israel, bin, They’re, “ We’re Organizations: CNN, Biden, Trump, University of Michigan, Microsoft Locations: Wisconsin, Midwest, Israel, Racine , Wisconsin, Scranton, , Gaza, Afghanistan, Iraq, Rafah
Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, used his annual investor letter to warn of a looming "retirement crisis" facing the US and raise his concerns about disillusioned young people. This triggered criticisms on both sides of the aisle and became a major headache for Fink and the firm. He has avoided using the term ESG and repeatedly emphasized that BlackRock works with energy firms. Fink, who is 71 and has kept Wall Street guessing on his own retirement, also got personal with this letter. Fink is focused on "Energy pragmatism"The biggest opportunity in infrastructure, according to Fink, is around energy.
Persons: Larry Fink, Fink, . Fink, I've, Australia Fink Organizations: BlackRock, Business, DuPont, Cal Northridge, University of Michigan, Gen, Global Infrastructure Partners, Texas Permanent School Fund Locations: Calpers, Ottoman Empire, Australia, BlackRock, decarbonization
This confidence is echoed by other recent metrics, including a survey by Morgan Stanley showing that consumer sentiment hit a five-month high in January. Economists who spoke to CNBC Make It say it's likely the cumulative effect of wage growth, low unemployment and slowing inflation. "But with slowing inflation and strong wage growth, adjusted-for-inflation incomes are increasing, giving consumers more buying power," he says. Wages increased 5% in January 2024, a three-month moving average of nominal wage growth for individuals, as measured by the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. Wage growth, slowing inflation and low unemployment are the main factors for improved optimism among Americans, Ernest says.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, what's, Robert Johnson, Here's, Gus Faucher, Johnson, Jonathan Ernest, Ernest Organizations: of Michigan, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, CNBC, Creighton University's Heider College of Business, PNC Financial Services Group, U.S . Department of, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Stock, Case Western Reserve University Locations: New, Atlanta
Inflation comes in hotter than expected
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The consumer price index increased 3.1% year over year in January, higher than the forecast of 2.9%. The CPI rose 0.3% month over month in January. January’s year-over-year rise in the CPI was expected to be 2.9%, which would have been a massive slowdown from December’s 3.4%. CPI increased by 0.3% month over month in January. Additionally, New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data shows the one-year ahead median expected inflation rate had largely been cooling but stayed at 3.0% in January.
Persons: That's, , That’s, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, University of Michigan, Consumers, , New York Fed Survey, Consumer Locations: January’s, ,
A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans' inflation expectations have reached their lowest point in nearly three years. Economists say consumers appear to be responding to steadily slower inflation, higher incomes, lower gas prices and a rising stock market. What's more, paychecks have outpaced inflation over the past year, thereby easing Americans' adjustment to a higher cost of living. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesEven with the steady slowdown in inflation, prices are still nearly 17% higher than they were three years ago, a source of discontent for many Americans. It would be too painful.”Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and also a former Fed economist, acknowledged that "people are angry” about higher prices.
Persons: Joe Biden's, What's, , Grace Zwemmer, Marshall, , Dana Smith, Smith, Ryan Cummings, ” Cummings, Biden, Robert Shiller, David Andolfatto, “ Let’s, Claudia Sahm, Josh Boak Organizations: WASHINGTON, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal, Oxford Economics, Marshall, Trump, Democratic, Fed, University of Miami, Sahm Consulting Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Atlanta, Matthews , North Carolina, Charlotte, Washington
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest level since July 2021 and up 21.4% from a year ago. On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey's director. "Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations," Hsu said. Along with the improved outlook on general conditions, survey respondents displayed more confidence that inflation is coming down. The outlook for the inflation rate a year from now declined to 2.9%, down from 3.1% in December for the lowest reading since December 2020.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Hsu, Andrew Hunter, Stocks Organizations: Veteran, The Department of Labor, The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey, Consumers, Republicans, Federal Reserve, AAA, Capital Economics Locations: Long Beach , California
REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The euro rose on Thursday for the first time this week, after data suggested the downturn in the euro zone economy may be starting to ease, although holidays in the United States and Japan kept trading activity muted. The euro rose broadly, gaining the most against the Swedish crown , after the Swedish central bank left rates unchanged, while also gaining on the yen and the Swiss franc. The survey showed the euro zone economy is on track to contract again in the fourth quarter. Its PMI rose to 43.8 from 43.1, beating the poll expectation for 43.4 but was still below breakeven. Sterling was last up 0.5% on the day at $1.2558, having risen to a high of $1.2575 after the PMI data.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, There's, Michael Brown, Brown, Geert Wilders, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Jeff Ng, Changpeng Zhao, Vidya Ranganathan, Lincoln, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, PMI, European Central Bank, Fed, University of Michigan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Markets, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, United States, Japan, Germany, Swedish, EU, Wednesday's, Netherlands, Asia, Singapore
With markets shut in Japan and the United States for the Thanksgiving holiday, currencies barely moved and cash U.S. Treasuries weren't traded in Asia. By 0530 GMT, however, the euro was 0.15% higher at $1.0902 and the dollar index was a tad weaker at 103.71. Adding to investors' confusion, data showed orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell more than expected in October, signalling an economy cooling considerably after hot third-quarter growth. The dollar's rebound comes after a three-week long spell of weakness driven by evidence of a slowing economy and disinflation, leading markets to price out any additional Fed rate hikes. The forward-looking flash November purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) are also due out globally on Thursday and should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Treasuries weren't, Jeff Ng, Treasuries, policymaker Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao, Vidya Ranganathan, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, University of Michigan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Fed, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Governing, PMI, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Rights SINGAPORE, Japan, United States, Asia, Britain, U.S
Holiday thins trading after data nudges dollar higher
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
With markets shut in Japan and the United States for the Thanksgiving holiday, currencies barely moved and cash U.S. Treasuries weren't traded in Asia. The dollar index rose overnight, bouncing from a 2-1/2 month low, after economic data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. The weakness in the dollar has buoyed the yen , along with expectations the Bank of Japan may shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy next year. The dollar index was just 0.03% lower at 103.84, with the euro unchanged at $1.0887. The forward-looking flash November purchasing manager indexes, or PMIs, are also due out globally on Thursday and should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin.
Persons: Treasuries weren't, Jeff Ng, Treasuries, policymaker Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Fed, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Governing, PMI Locations: Japan, United States, Asia, Britain, U.S
"These expectations have risen in spite of the fact that consumers have taken note of the continued slowdown in inflation," survey Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. But progress this year has been inconsistent, and Fed officials remain wary of the potential for a reversal. That said, the University of Michigan survey results are at odds with other measures of inflation expectations that have shown they have in fact been moderating. A New York Fed survey of consumers last week, for instance, showed inflation expectations over both one-year and five-year horizons eased in October even as the Michigan survey showed them accelerating. Market-based measures of inflation expectations are also declining.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Quincy Krosby, Dan Burns, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, University of Michigan's, Fed, Global, LPL, University of Michigan, New York Fed, . Treasury, Securities, Thomson Locations: Michigan
Morning Bid: A spooky Friday 13 for bonds?
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe. Investors in U.S. Treasuries have good reason to feel on edge on a day (Friday 13) many consider unlucky, according to Western superstition. For the rest of the day, it's earnings - bank earnings to be specific - that move into the market spotlight. Judging by trade in the options markets, traders are positioning for larger-than-usual share swings after the earnings, especially in Wells Fargo.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dhara Ranasinghe, Biden, Patrick Harker, Hugh Lawson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dhara, Federal, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, U.S, University of Michigan, Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, JPMorgan, Wells, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, West, China, Wells Fargo
CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street versus main street
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The mood on Wall Street, however, is markedly different. Does Wall Street know something that ordinary U.S. consumers don't? In that open space between breaths, equilibrium between Wall Street and main street may be reached.
Persons: Spencer Platt, there's, Edward Jones, Mona Mahajan, CNBC's, Mahajan, Ray Dalio's, Greg Bassuk Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, University of Michigan, Consumers, Survey, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow Locations: New York City
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