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Jeffrey Gundlach sees an economic downturn on the horizon, but he also sees an opportunity emerging for income investors. Gundlach, founder of DoubleLine Capital, sees interest rates falling as the U.S. economy moves into a recession in the first part of 2024 . However, investors seeking income may do well to step out a little further on the yield curve, rather than hiding in 6-month Treasury bills and cash-like investments. Investors in holdings that are too short-dated may find themselves exposed to reinvestment risk as rates decline. He said investors could buy "the entire yield curve at this point."
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Stanley Druckenmiller's Organizations: DoubleLine Locations: U.S
How to get an even higher CD rate than you see advertised
  + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Higher yields on certificates of deposit are out there, but you'll have to venture beyond your favorite bank to get them. "There could be as much as a 50-basis point difference going to a brokered CD," he said. Brokered vs. bank offerings With a bank CD, the investor goes directly to the institution to buy the instrument. For instance, brokered CDs purchased via Vanguard begin at 1 to 3 months and go out beyond 10 years. The value of the CD will fluctuate with interest rates, with the price declining as yields run higher.
Persons: Malcolm Ethridge, Greg McBride, McBride, Ethridge, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wealth, Vanguard, Bankrate.com . Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Locations: Rockville , Maryland
The Fed's rate-hiking campaign gave investors an opportunity they haven't seen in years: Risk-free returns are finally interesting. Six-month Treasurys are yielding 5.5%, while a bevy of money market funds are offering 7-day yields exceeding 5%, according to Crane Data . However, at some point, rates will come down — and investors hiding in short-term, high-yielding assets could find themselves with no place to go. That means investors could be left with few places to go for attractive yields in a lower rate environment as their shorter-term assets mature — known as reinvestment risk. The benefit of laddering when rates are high is that the longer-dated bonds will have already locked in the higher yields.
Persons: There's, we've, Crystal Cox, Matthew McKay, McKay, Jerrod Pearce, Pearce, Wealthspire's Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Data, Wealthspire Advisors, Briaud Financial, CFP, Creative Planning
The balanced portfolio — reported by many to have died in 2022 — is experiencing a revival. The iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR) that mimics the strategy lost 15.6% in 2022, including reinvested dividends. Investors sitting tight were rewarded, however, as 2023's run-up in stocks helped lift the 60/40 model. "And thanks to higher interest rates, investors are getting much higher compensation for taking interest rate risk compared to 2021-2022." A 60/40 portfolio isn't right for all investors and their situations, but it does create a foundation for sound investments, said Preston Cherry, CFP and founder of Concurrent Financial Planning.
Persons: , Seema Shah, Ryan Salah, Salah, US6M, Preston Cherry, bode, Cherry Organizations: Asset Management, Capital Financial Partners, Federal, CFP, CNBC
Near-dated Treasurys have seen a sizeable boost since the Federal Reserve has embarked on its rate-hiking campaign, and a strategy that allows investors to generate income in the short term is taking off. To that effect, the firm this week launched a trio of Treasury bond laddering strategies: six-month, 12-month and 24-month offerings, managed by its Wasmer Schroeder Strategies team. "There are two bond investors: total return and income," Lafferty said. "For income investors, those higher yields are still at the shorter end, and these might be people who are pulling income out of their portfolio or retirees who need to spend their current income," he added. For investors who are thinking longer term, Schwab offers 5-year to 15-year ladders, as well as a 1-year to 5-year variety.
Persons: Bond, Charles Schwab, Warren Buffett, US3M, David Lafferty, Schroeder, Lafferty, Schwab Organizations: Federal Reserve, Schwab Asset Management, Treasury
Since the central bank embarked on its rate-hiking campaign in March 2022, yields on fixed income instruments, ranging from Treasurys to money market funds and bank deposit products, have become more attractive. Some strategists have suggested income-focused investors begin locking in higher rates so they can keep earning good yields once the central bank shifts gears. Capital One recently pushed up the annual percentage yield on its 2-year CD 5 basis points to 4.35%. As a result, a handful of institutions now offer yields of 5% or close to it for 2-year CDs. See below for a table of 2-year CDs.
Persons: Michael Kaye, Ally Financial, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Delta Community Credit Union Locations: Wells
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to boost interest rates by another quarter percentage point Wednesday afternoon – and that's terrific news for fixed income investors hoping to grab a little more yield. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised rates 10 times – with July's expected hike marking the 11 th increase – to cool inflation. Consider that during the week of March 11, 2022, the rate on the 2-year Treasury note was 1.75%, according to Refinitiv. Investors who wish to squeeze a little more interest income from their cash holdings have opted for Treasury bills, with the 6-month bill yielding 5.5%. By buying multiple notes of different maturities, investors can "ladder" these Treasurys and reinvest the proceeds from maturing bonds into longer-dated issues.
Persons: Greg McBride, maturities, tradeoffs, McBride, SLM —, Sallie Mae —, Nick Wells Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury, Bank of Locations: Bank of Indiana, Treasurys
With interest rates peaking, now might be a good time to boost the cash flow you're generating in your fixed income portfolio. A core and satellite approach to boost cash flow For liquidity, UBS recommends a core-satellite approach. You also know when you'll be getting your income payments from the bonds, which generally pay interest twice a year. The first is "everyday cash," which means investors should be stashing money that they can readily withdraw if needed. The second tier is "savings cash" for money that you can afford to lock up for a short period of time.
Persons: US1Y, Marianna Mamou, you'll, Mamou, Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Bread Financial, Bread, Investors, SEC
With the second half of the year now underway, investors may want to take another look at their fixed income portfolio. High yields have been a boon to income investors, as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates over the past year. "For more of our clients, we're looking to have the fixed income of the portfolio provide lower correlation and income," he said. Greg Wilensky, head of U.S. fixed income at Janus Henderson Investors, generally prefers securitized assets such as asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. "You can't think of high yield bonds in the same thought as Treasurys," said Cox of eToro.
Persons: James Franke, Sonal Desai, She's, We're, It's, Desai, Franke, Rothschild, Callie Cox, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Rothschild Investment, Franklin, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors Locations: Treasurys, U.S, eToro
There is more to juicing yield than hiding out in money market funds, and BlackRock says now is the time to hop into high-quality fixed income. Indeed, the combination of higher interest rates and an inverted yield curve has made money market funds and Treasury bills tempting. "As rates appear set to peak with the approaching end of the Fed's hiking cycle, investors may want to consider stepping into high-quality, medium-term fixed income." BlackRock noted that intermediate and long-term fixed income exchange-traded funds have received $27.6 billion in inflows year to date, 15% greater than the amount of cash hitting their short-term counterparts. "At these levels, we believe investors are adequately compensated for long-term inflationary risk, given many EM central banks target ~3% inflation," the firm noted.
Persons: US3M Organizations: BlackRock, Federal Reserve
The worst of the debt ceiling crisis is over now that lawmakers have passed a bill and sent it to President Joe Biden for signing, but investors are about to see an influx of Treasury securities enter the market. A large issuance of new Treasurys could push down prices of holdings in investors' portfolios. While large investors scoop up the new T-bills, the extent to which individual investors capture the benefit will also depend on the Federal Reserve's policy stance. "As you get past the debt ceiling, getting paid on your cash is still a concern, and doing it with T-bills where you still get a 5% yield is attractive," Tannuzzo said. "Interest rates have been so low, and to see 4%, 5% on T-bills – you can make money on money, and that's wonderful," Shagawat said.
Persons: Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, James Shagawat, Greg McBride, Shagawat, Treasurys, he's, Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Columbia, Federal, Federal Reserve, AdvicePeriod
In 2022, savers created 3.6 million accounts at TreasuryDirect.gov, a website where investors can buy a range of savings bonds and Treasury securities from the U.S. government. That's up about fivefold from 2021, when investors opened 689,369 accounts on the site. I bondsFirst, savers turned toward Series I savings bonds, an inflation-protected and largely risk-free asset that's issued by the federal government. The rate on these bonds has two components: a fixed rate of interest and a rate that varies based on inflation. You can buy up to $5,000 in paper I bonds using your tax refund.
As short maturity Treasury bond ETFs see big inflows, more investors are taking on single-bond strategies as a solution to macroeconomic challenges. Buying Treasury bonds typically involves opening an account on TreasuryDirect or through brokerage firms like Charles Schwab. When seeking to invest in short-term Treasury bonds, Nadig advised looking for ETF products like this or a competitor's ETF products that offer similar kinds of exposure. On Friday, the 2 Year Treasury (US2Y) yield fell by more than 4 basis points to 4.86%, but returns have still increased 43 basis points this year. The 6 Month Treasury (US6M) currently holds the highest yield at 5.137% as of Friday's close.
The calculus of tax optimization Tax optimization begins with the three types of investment accounts available to investors: taxable brokerage accounts, tax-deferred accounts such as 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts, and tax-free accounts like Roth IRAs. Tax-deferred accounts, meanwhile, allow money to accumulate free of taxes – but you're on the hook for income taxes when you take withdrawals. Your individual tax situation will also be a key factor in determining which income assets are best for you and where you should hold them. However, investors in a low tax bracket might be better off going for taxable bonds – which tend to pay higher yields than municipal bonds. Asset location Taxable brokerage accounts are generally a good place to hold T-bills if you're going to tap the money soon.
Rates on U.S. Treasurys have spurted even higher, and that means you don't have to look too far to safely grab some yield for your cash holdings. The yield on six-month Treasurys have surpassed 5%, and even 1-month bills tout rates of 4.5%. Further, you can put the same concept to work with short-dated Treasurys to get a little more yield on your cash and do so safely. Risk management and ladders When interest rates are rising, you can reinvest the proceeds of the maturing bonds in your ladder into a longer-dated issue. In a falling rate environment, you can count on the bonds that have already locked in the higher yields.
Bond yields and prices move inversely to each other so, as rates rose, prices tumbled – and did so at an inopportune time since stocks were suffering, too. Thus, they have higher interest rate risk and greater price fluctuation. He likes short-term Treasury bond funds and ETFs. Another way to mitigate interest rate risk is to use a barbell: You hold equal amounts of shorter and longer-dated issues. "You don't have to reach too far in terms of credit risk and interest rate risk to capture healthy yield in today's environment."
Be aware that money market accounts offered by a bank are subject to protection from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. This isn't the case with money market funds, which can't guarantee that you won't lose money. When shopping for a money market fund, look for offerings that hold high quality underlying investments, and be sure to keep an eye out for fees. Money market funds that Lawrence likes include the Federated Hermes Prime Cash Obligations Fund (PCOXX) and the Fidelity Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund Premium Class (FZEXX). Unless they're tax exempt, money market fund income is subject to federal, state and local taxes.
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