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☆ Hedge fund turned to a wargame to plan for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-07 | by ( Michael Peck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Related storiesIn the second phase of the game, soon after the Chinese invasion began, US forces were said to have engaged and stopped the Chinese amphibious assault, though China continued to bombard Taiwan. Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty ImagesThis caught the hedge fund players by surprise: they had assumed EU sanctions were unlikely because of the depth of China-Europe trade, which reached $815 billion annually in 2023. The hedge fund "agreed that any room for avoiding a total divestment from China and the South China Sea was now completely lost, and market re-entry was probably many years away." The hedge fund responded by choosing to invest heavily in semiconductors manufactured in regions not affected by the war. "This would provide potential opportunities for new players to emerge in the Global South, particularly if loans can be collateralized," Knightsbridge noted.

Persons: Finley Grimble, liquidating, KSG, Daniel Ceng, Knightsbridge, Grimble, Michael Peck Organizations: Service, Business, Knightsbridge Strategic, Getty, Treasury, Defense, Foreign Policy, Rutgers Univ, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: British, China, Taiwan, South China, Europe, South America, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Anadolu, South, Ukraine, Africa, East, Southeast Asia, Zimbabwe, Forbes

☆ The Senate has a new plan to ban congressional stock trading. Here's what's in it.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewOn Wednesday, a key Senate panel approved a bill that would ban lawmakers from trading stocks. The Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee approved the legislation — known as the Ending Trading and Holdings in Congressional Stocks (ETHICS) Act — by an 8-4 vote. AdvertisementPolling has shown for years that the idea of banning lawmakers from trading stocks in broadly popular among members of both parties. This is the most significant progress on a stock trading ban in yearsThe last time either chamber got close to passing a stock trading ban was in September 2022, when House Democrats proposed a sweeping bill that included a major loophole and had little time to be vetted by members. Many saw the effort as a sham designed to appease those who had been pushing for a stock trading ban.

Persons: —, Republican Sens, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ron Johnson of, Mitt Romney, James Lankford, Democratic Sen, Jeff Merkley, they've, There's, Merkley, Jon Ossoff, Josh Hawley, Missouri —, Gary Peters of, Wednesday's, Chuck Schumer Organizations: Service, Senate Homeland Security, Government, Committee, Holdings, Congressional, Republican, Business, Democratic, Treasury, House Democrats, Gary Peters of Michigan Locations: Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Utah, Oklahoma, Oregon, Georgia, Missouri

☆ Chinese bank ICBC hit by ransomware attack
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Juliana Liu | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —A US unit of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) was hit by a ransomware attack this week that disrupted some of its systems, reportedly hitting liquidity in US Treasuries which may have contributed to a brief market sell-off on Thursday. ICBC Financial Services, which is headquartered in New York, said in a statement that the attack, which happened on Wednesday, had been reported to law enforcement. “We successfully cleared US Treasury trades executed Wednesday … and [repurchase agreements] financing trades done on Thursday,” it said in the statement. The Financial Times and Reuters quoted some market participants as saying trades going through ICBC were disrupted, which affected market liquidity. It’s unclear whether the incident contributed to the weak 30-year bond auction conducted by the US Treasury Thursday.

Persons: “, ”, Wang Wenbin, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Joe Biden, CNN’s Wayne Chang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, ICBC Financial Services, Treasury, York Branch, State, P, China’s, Ministry, Financial Times, Reuters, US Treasury, Swissquote Bank, Dow, Nasdaq, US Treasury Department Locations: China, Hong Kong, New York, Beijing, York, ICBC, Treasuries, Japan

☆ A CIO managing $40 million warns most stock-market investors are in danger of losses as high interest rates begin to stifle the economy and risk-free Treasury yields offer 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury rates are now elevated across the board as the yield curve begins to flatten out with longer-term rates continuing to rise. Here's the current equity-risk premium, which is how much the S&P 500 is expected to return annually over the next decade in excess of the 10-year Treasury note. As for downward pressure on the economy, Mulholland said the effects of higher interest rates would continue to show up in several ways. Businesses will be more hesitant to borrow money to expand as much amid higher rates, Mulholland said, and banks will be less likely to lend money. "Investors who make regular withdrawals or have large liquidity needs on the horizon would be smart to reduce stock market exposure now," Mulholland said.

Persons: Stephen Mulholland, it's, Mulholland, Rosenberg, Stocks, Louis Organizations: Mulholland, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, US Treasury Bills, Federal Reserve Bank of St, of Labor Statistics, Conference Locations: Fed's, American

☆ Can America afford two wars? Here’s what the bond market thinks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —If you want to aggravate the US bond market, just remind traders how high the nation’s budget deficit is. The latest tally from the Treasury Department for the fiscal year that ended September 30 put the deficit at $1.7 trillion. All else being equal, that tends to push bond prices down, which causes yields to go higher. That suggests there are other factors that may be outweighing the effects of the war that are driving yields higher, said Snyderman. Also, since the debt ceiling was suspended in June, the Treasury has been issuing more bonds to fund government spending, pushing bond prices down.

Persons: it’s, Joe, That’s, shrugged, Lisa Shalett, Janet Yellen, Rachel Snyderman, Biden, ” Snyderman, John Lynch, Israel doesn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury Department, Treasury, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Center, CNN, , Congressional, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Fitch, Moody’s, Service, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: New York, Israel, Ukraine, Gaza, United States

☆ The US' AAA credit ratings at risk of a downgrade due to 'brinkmanship over the debt ceiling.' This could impact trillions of dollars worth of Treasury securities.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fitch expressed concerns about political partisanship amid negotiations over raising the debt ceiling. On Wednesday, major ratings agency Fitch put the US's credit on watch for a possible downgrade, citing political "brinksmanship" in negotiations over raising the debt ceiling. The ratings agency expects a resolution to the debt ceiling crisis before the X-date. However, the risk that the debt ceiling may not be raised has also gone up. Fitch also signaled concerns about challenges over governance amid the debt ceiling crisis.

☆ Bitcoin gets vote of confidence as a long-term store of value as Tether says it will buy more of the crypto to back its stablecoin
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bitcoin got a vote of confidence as a long-term store of value with Tether's new investment strategy. The issuer of the USDT stablecoin will allocate up to 15% of its net realized operating profits to buying bitcoin. Last week, Tether revealed that it held $1.5 billion of bitcoin in its reserves at the end of March. "Bitcoin has continually proven its resilience and has emerged as a long-term store of value with substantial growth potential," said Tether Chief Technology Officer Paolo Ardoino in a statement. Last week, Tether posted a first-quarter "attestation" that revealed it held $1.5 billion of bitcoin in its reserves at the end of March as well as $3.4 billion of gold.

☆ I quit Goldman Sachs after only a year. Here's how I knew leaving for a tech startup was the right career move.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Chris Hladczuk | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Chris Hladczuk leads growth at Meow, a fintech startup, after quitting Goldman Sachs. I picked a weird day to quit — it was my 24th birthday and I called my boss to tell her I was leaving Goldman Sachs. The power of Goldman SachsI love Goldman because it taught me how to win. With my future career in mind, is my pace of learning higher at Goldman in investment banking or at an early-stage startup? Chris Hladczuk currently leads growth at fintech startup Meow.

☆ The dollar is at 'real risk' as the political deadlock over the US debt ceiling undermines investor confidence, Goldman Sachs' Beth Hammack says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The political deadlock over the US debt ceiling poses a 'real risk' to the dollar, according to Goldman Sachs' Beth Hammack. "There is real risk to the US dollar as we leave this in a more protracted state of negotiations," she told Bloomberg TV. The stalemate over the borrowing limit has heightened concerns that the US could end up defaulting on its debt. "And so I think that's really confusing - I think there is real risk to the US dollar as we leave this in a more protracted state of negotiations." Lawmakers have been sparring over the debt limit, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy recently proposing a bill that would lift the borrowing limit by $1.5 trillion while cutting spending by $4.5 trillion.

☆ Dollar dominance isn't going anywhere. Here are 5 myths about de-dollarization.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The dollar's dominance isn't at risk, three currency experts told Insider. Vocal observers, like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have warned that the threat of de-dollarization is real, as countries like China take measures to supplant the dollar. They debunked five myths and misconceptions that are commonly touted by dollar doomsayers:1. The dollar is losing its stance as the top currency in global tradeThis claim also isn't supported by data. Though the percentage of dollar reserves has slipped, he estimates it would take around 24 years for global dollar reserves to drop another 12%.

☆ The Treasury market is starting to price in the possibility of a US debt default in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Treasury market is starting to price in the possibility of a US debt default later this summer. The difference in yields between US Treasury bills maturing in May and July hit a record 1.49%. "Investors are likely demanding more to hold those securities at risk of delayed payment," LPL Research said. The one-month Treasury bill currently yields about 3.71%, compared to 5.14% for a 3-month Treasury bill. A similar scenario could play out this time as Republicans show no signs of working with Democrats to pass a debt limit increase, despite continued remarks from both sides of the aisle that a US debt default "is not an option."

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☆ Debt ceiling drama is back and it's coming for markets. Here's what to know as a deadline looms.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

If the trend returns to the upside, it'll buck many of the gloomiest predictions of a crushing earnings recession and a painful stock market sell-off — at least for now. Last week, markets started showing early signs that investors are stressed about a possible US default as the deadline looms without an agreement in sight. Join us in demanding a reasonable negotiation, a responsible debt ceiling, an agreement that brings spending under control" McCarthy said. Here are the latest market moves. Here's why Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson doesn't believe in the latest stock market rally.

☆ Markets are growing nervous over the prospect of a US default as debt ceiling deadline looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Demand for debt insurance has skyrocketed, while demand for US Treasury bills has fallen off, the FT reported. Meanwhile, the demand for US Treasury bills has fallen off, a sign investors are leaning away from government-issued debt as the impasse over raising the debt ceiling drags on. Prices for Treasury bills that expire in late summer – around the time a debt default could potentially happen – have fallen below those of other, riskier short-term debt instruments, the FT said. Though experts say it is unlikely, a debt default would be potentially catastrophic for markets, with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calling such an event an "unthinkable." But time is running out for policymakers, who are holding out as they spar over possible spending cuts as a condition for raising the debt ceiling.

☆ A veteran investor says the bears have it all wrong, and pessimism is already priced into markets. Here's where he's putting his money now that the time-tested playbook for investing in tech stocks ha
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But right now Lindzon isn't following the tech-focused investing approach that brought him so much success over the previous two decades. While he still sees opportunities to make money, he's much more cautious amid a high-interest-rate environment that led to the worst year for tech stocks since 2000. "You can't do a startup today and hire a hundred engineers because you can't raise enough money," Lindzon said. "I'm constructive in that money isn't coming out of the market completely," Lindzon said. Instead, Lindzon would advise investors to consider equal-weight stock market indexes, given that they offer diversification but aren't bogged down by mega-cap tech stocks.

☆ House Democratic leadership finally released the text of their bill to ban members of Congress from trading stocks. Here's what's in it.
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Bryan Metzger | Dave Levinthal | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The text comes after months of back-and-forth between Pelosi and lawmakers, and a vote may come this week. Interest in lawmakers' stock trades rose after Insider's "Conflicted Congress" investigation. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who himself does not trade stocks, said earlier this year that he'd consider barring members of Congress from trading stocks if the GOP wins the House in November. Here's what the bill includes:The bill would ban top officials across all three branches — as well as the spouses and dependent children of members of Congress — from owning or trading stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies. Members of Congress would also be required to file financial disclosures electronically, eliminating a long-standing problem with lawmakers submitting illegible information about their personal finances.

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