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AdvertisementA bipartisan US congressional commission urges a "Manhattan Project" for AI to outpace China. Trump has previously called China the "primary threat" in the AI race. AdvertisementThe Manhattan Project was a secret program led by the US government during World War II to develop the world's first atomic bombs. Advertisement"We have to take the lead over China, China is the primary threat," he added. OpenAI also cited the Manhattan Project in its blueprint as one of the US's "iconic infrastructure projects that moved the country forward."
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Logan, Joe Biden's, OpenAI, Yoshua, Max Tegmark Organizations: China, China Economic, Security, Commission, General Intelligence, US Treasury Department, Business, Manhattan Project, Life Institute, MIT, Guardian, Elon Locations: China, US, Washington
Global stocks drop amid heightened US-Russia tensions
  + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
CNN —Markets experienced volatility Tuesday as investors weigh mounting tensions between Russia and the United States. The turbulence comes after Moscow changed its nuclear doctrine following the Biden administration giving Ukraine permission to use longer-range weapons inside targets in Russia. The attack comes just two days after the Biden administration gave Kyiv the green light to use the longer-range American weapons against targets inside Russia. On Sunday, President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use the longer-range missiles inside Russia, ending a monthslong prohibition aimed to avoid drastically escalating the conflict. “In our view, the underlying trends for the equity market remain positive, but this news provides an excuse for the market to give back some of its rally,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services.
Persons: Dow, Biden, , Hogan, Joe Biden, Keith Lerner Organizations: CNN —, Nasdaq, Riley Wealth Management, Treasury, Russia’s Defense, Advisory Locations: Russia, United States, Moscow, Ukraine, , Bryansk
One basis point is equal to 0.01% and yields and prices move in opposite directions. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was lower by 5 basis points at 4.365%. U.S. Treasury yields slid on Tuesday as tensions between Ukraine and Russia increased, while investors awaited new data. Bloomberg News also reported, citing RBC Ukraine, that Ukraine hit Russia with U.S.-made missiles for the first time. Yields have soared following the election with traders betting that Trump's pro-business policies and tax cuts will boost economic growth.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, , Joe Biden, Trump's, Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Trump, Elon Musk Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Bloomberg News, RBC Ukraine, Traders, Wall, US Treasury, ING, Key Square Group Locations: Ukraine, Russia, U.S, Trump's, Washington
AdvertisementInflation's downtrend may not be as straightforward as some investors think, according to Charles Schwab. Immigration reform could mean higher labor costs," the note added. Labor costs risingLabor costs have accelerated in recent months, with unit labor costs among all workers in the business sector rising to 3.4% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to Federal Reserve data. Markets are beginning to dial back expectations for further rate cuts in response to inflation concerns," Schwab strategists said. Charles Schwab, Citi Economic Surprise Index"Stronger growth suggests that the Fed may not lower short-term rates as much as anticipated just a few months ago.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Donald Trump, Trump, Schwab, It's Organizations: Trump, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Federal Reserve, Unit, Bloomberg, Treasury, Business, Citi
CNN —Donald Trump is returning to the White House, and the stock market is loving it. ‘The regime change’For now, stock market investors don’t seem bothered by the jump in bond yields or these inflationary or debt concerns. “The stock market jumped for joy that the election results were definitive, thus averting a contested election. Of course, market veterans say they wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market eventually display concern about tariffs and inflation under Trump. That could pose a number of problems for the economy and the stock market.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, shockwaves, , David Kotok, Stephanie Roth, Roth, ” Roth, Sau Loeb, Kamala Harris, Harris, Jeff Buchbinder, , Kotok, it’s, ” Kotok, They’re, Freddie Mac, , Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, It’s, , BTIG’s Isaac Boltansky Organizations: CNN, White, Dow Jones, stoke, Trump, Advisors, Wolfe Research, Treasury, US Treasury Department, Getty, Wall Street, LPL, Fed, Stock Locations: Big, Washington , DC, Washington
BNY Investments: See opportunity in US treasury yields
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBNY Investments: See opportunity in US treasury yieldsApril Larusse of BNY Investments explains why she (and Warren Buffett) likes US bonds, despite some volatility, and her outlook for the fixed income market.
Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: BNY, BNY Investments
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . A pillar of President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was the economy and the work he would do to "fix it." Tesla shareholders: The EV giant took off with news of Trump's win, finishing the day up almost 15%. Bond yields are already soaring, indicating the market expects the cost of borrowing to keep rising. Investors in Europe: European growth stands to take a hit from Trump's proposed tariffs, according to Goldman Sachs.
Persons: , Donald Trump's, Elon Musk's, Trump, that's, Goldman Sachs, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Ella Hopkins, Grace Lett, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, White, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, GOP, Tesla, Trump, bitcoin, Treasury, Investors Locations: Europe, New York, London, Chicago
Markets, in particular, crave certainty, and the clear path forward will allow companies to adjust their business and hiring plans. But stocks may also be reacting to Trump’s victory, in particular. Trump flipped several swing states from President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, and Republicans also took control of the Senate. So Trump’s victory, at least for now, appears to be keeping those rates somewhat higher. Other so-called Trump trades, including shares of his social media stock, Trump Media & Technology Group, surged Wednesday morning.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden’s, refocusing, Sam Stovall, Bitcoin, Crypto, Trump’s, Germany’s DAX, Australia’s, , Neil Newman, Hong, ” Daniel Murray Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Dow, Nasdaq, Republicans, Fed, JPMorgan, Democratic, CFRA Research, Gross, Treasury, Trump, Trump Media & Technology Group, CAC, Nikkei, Advisory, EFG Asset Management Locations: New York, Europe, Asia, China, Tokyo, Shanghai
US debt is surging and Trump and Harris's plans will only add to the pile, the former FDIC chair says. Sheila Bair warns that high debt cause the next financial crisis. She says neither candidate has focused on the crisis because higher taxes and lower benefits would drive away voters. Surging debt levels could cause the next financial crisis if left unchecked, Bair warned. "Now, the resulting overhang of federal debt could itself be the cause of a future crisis," Bair wrote in an op-ed last week.
Persons: Sheila Bair, , Bair, Trump's, Harris's, don't, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Treasury, Investors, CNBC
How much and how fast is hard to know, but you can bet your bottom dollar you’ll be needing more dollars to pay for everyday goods if Trump’s sweeping tariffs are put in place. “If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer,” said Philip Daniele, CEO of AutoZone, on an earnings call in September. But several studies conclude that the cost of those tariffs were borne almost entirely by American consumers and businesses. The most generous interpretation of Trump’s tariff plan would be that he’s trying to force US businesses to move their overseas operations back on US soil, creating jobs. Even if tariffs could undo decades of globalization, it likely wouldn’t have the effect Trump is hoping for.
Persons: , Philip Daniele, AutoZone, Daniele, it’s, we’ve, he’s, Trump, Timothy Boyle, Boyle, we’re, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Treasury, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Columbia, Washington Post, Trump, Associated Press, AP, Trump -, Walmart, Target, aren’t Locations: New York, China, Beijing, United States
That shortage also affects rent prices. In August, Harris unveiled a multi-pronged plan to lower housing costs. The plan also includes two main proposals to lower rent costs. Both plans to lower rent would be subject to congressional approval, meaning that the measures may be difficult to pass even if Harris wins the presidency. Unlike Harris, Trump has not rolled out a formal housing plan, but he has tied plans to deport undocumented immigrants to housing.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, “ It’s, , Jim Parrott, That’s, ” Parrott, Mario Tama, Freddie Mac, Harris, Trump, “ We’re, homeownership, SSRS, , Nick Pappas Organizations: CNN, Urban Institute, National Economic Council, SSRS, National Association of Realtors, Trump, Economic, of New, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Locations: Arizona , Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Los Angeles , California, America, of New York, Kansas
By contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris's tax plan is expected to increase tax revenues by $1.7 trillion over 10 years, but at a cost of negative 2% to long-run GDP and 786,000 jobs. The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania estimates that, including her spending proposals, the primary deficits would increase by $1.2 trillion, and accounting for adverse economic feedback effects, primary deficits increase to $2 trillion. Higher deficits and higher debts, just with different paths to get there. One candidate proposes cutting taxes to improve economic activity but increase deficits, and the other proposes raising taxes and increasing spending by even more and growing deficits. If the deficit keeps increasing faster than our economy grows, so will the debt, inflation, and interest rates.
Persons: We'll, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris's, Harris, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Treasuries Organizations: Tax Foundation, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Medicare, Green New Deal, TLT, Treasury Bond ETF, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: United States, Europe
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner on Friday warned that if the U.S. kicked off a trade war with the European Union, there could be retaliation. Trade is one of the main pillars of the German economy, suggesting heightened tensions, uncertainty and tariffs would hit the country harder than others. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and the EU and China, have been rising throughout the year. Both the U.S. and EU have implemented higher tariffs and on some goods imported from China, citing unfair trade practices. China in turn has also announced higher temporary tariffs on some imports from the EU.
Persons: Christian Lindner, Janet Yellen, Lindner, CNBC's Karen Tso, Donald Trump, it's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Trump Organizations: IMF, World Bank, German, European Union, International Monetary, Washington , D.C, Free Democratic Party, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party, U.S, EU, Reuters Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, Washington ,, China, EU, Germany
Expectations of a Fed rate cut caused mortgage rates to drop to a two-year low of 6.08% in late September, but it failed to spur homebuying activity. Every percentage point on a mortgage rate makes a big difference for that monthly payment. Here’s what’s driving the recent upswing in mortgage rates. Mortgage rates track the 10-year US Treasury yield, which was expected to fall in anticipation of further rate cuts. “I am clearly not going to own any fixed income.”The government’s fiscal situation might already be having an impact on mortgage rates.
Persons: Freddie Mac, pare, what’s, ” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Robyn Beck, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, “ We’re, Paul Tudor Jones, , ” Lawrence Yun, Kimberly Bradley, Zach, Kimberly, “ I’ve, ” Kimberly, ” Ken Lowrey, Ken Lowrey, “ homeownership, , Lowrey Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Mortgage, Association, Treasury, Getty, Federal Budget, Trump, CNBC, US Postal Service Locations: AFP, Manteo , North Carolina, Charleston , South Carolina
CNN —The Justice Department has reached a settlement for more than $100 million with the two corporations that owned and operated the container ship that destroyed Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge in March. The payment stemming from Thursday’s settlement will go to the US Treasury and to the budgets of several federal agencies directly affected by the crash or involved in the response, the Justice Department said Thursday. It will not cover any damages for the reconstruction of the bridge, the department said. In its filing last month, the Justice Department said that the “tragedy was entirely avoidable,” pointing to alleged failures in the ship’s infrastructure. Prosecutors wrote that, instead of fixing longstanding problems with their electrical transformer, the companies “jury-rigged their ship” with makeshift braces that repeatedly broke.
Persons: Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key, Port, , ” Benjamin Mizer, Department’s, Grace Ocean, Mizer, , Prosecutors, CNN’s Kaanita Iyer Organizations: CNN, The Justice Department, Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, Grace Ocean Private Limited, Synergy Marine, FBI, Justice Department, US Treasury, Fort McHenry, Synergy, Prosecutors, Coast Guard Locations: Baltimore, Port
Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.
Persons: Bonds, , Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta
Goldman Sachs forecasts muted S&P 500 gains, with a 3% annual return over 10 years. Diversification and equal-weighted S&P 500 exposure may offer better long-term returns. The bank's most bearish scenario would see the S&P 500 decline by an annual 1%, while its more positive calls for a gain of 7%. Goldman SachsAdding an exchange-traded fund that tracks the equal-weighted S&P 500 could be one way to go about it. AdvertisementFurthermore, investors should consider a more mixed asset portfolio of stocks and bonds without tilting toward one more than the other.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , David Kostin, Goldman, There's, Christian Mueller Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Treasury
The US government is offering up to $10 million for information on Rybar, a Russian media outlet. It comes as part of a wider US crackdown on alleged Russian election interference. AdvertisementThe US government is offering up to $10 million for information on the Russian media outlet Rybar and its employees. "Anyone with information on Rybar LLC, these individuals, their malign activities, or associated persons or entities should contact Rewards for Justice," it said. The new reward offer comes as part of a wider US crackdown on alleged Russian election interference.
Persons: , Mikhail Zvinchuk, Rybar, Zvinchuk, Yevgeny Prigozhin —, Wagner, Vladimir Putin, Prigozhin Organizations: Service, Department, Justice, intel, Rybar, Rostec, Wagner Group, US Treasury Department, RT Locations: Russian, Russia, Ukraine, Texas
First, higher interest rates will reward savers, making it more expensive to take risks. And with interest rates so low, companies could suddenly load up on debt: From 2007 to 2017, global nonfinancial corporate debt doubled, to $66 trillion. Now, with the arrival of a new supercycle, money managers are once again being forced to adapt to a changing set of economic realities. Normally, when the Fed hikes interest rates rapidly, the stock market tanks. Rising interest rates will make loans more expensive, forcing businesses to make more-thoughtful decisions about debt.
Persons: Josh Hirt, Silas Myers, Myers, Hirt, you've, Joe Quinlan, they'll, Quinlan Organizations: Investors, Vanguard, Mar Vista Investments, Federal Reserve, Capital, . Venture, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Big Tech, Federal Trade Commission, Treasury, European Union, Aerospace Locations: Washington, China, Unemployment, Europe, America, Japan, United States
But in an announcement Thursday, the US Treasury Department accused the Chinese firms of direct involvement in arms supplies to Moscow. The Chinese companies had collaborated with Russian defense firms in the production of Moscow’s “Garpiya series” long-range unmanned aerial vehicles, the department said in a statement. “The Garpiya has been deployed by Russia in its brutal war against Ukraine, destroying critical infrastructure and causing mass casualties,” it said. “We have seen for some time Chinese companies providing components to Russian companies that Russian companies then use to turn into machinery, weapons, other components that Russia could use in its war,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters Thursday. In the latest sign of their deepening alignment, Chinese and Russian defense officials vowed to strengthen their cooperation during meetings in Beijing last week.
Persons: , Redlepus, TSK, Matthew Miller, , Liu Pengyu, Andrey Belousov, Zhang Youxia Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, US Treasury Department, CNN, Xiamen Limbach Aircraft, Redlepus Vector Industry Shenzhen Co, Treasury Department, US, TSK Vektor, , Reuters, China’s, Military Commission Locations: Hong Kong, United States, China, Russia, Ukraine, Washington, Beijing, Moscow, Xiamen, Russian, ’ Beijing, U.S,
Russian automaker Sollers is under fire over reports that its cars are breaking down along the war front. In response on Thursday, Sollers blamed Western sanctions for forcing it to switch suppliers quickly. AdvertisementA Russian contractor providing SUVs and pick-up trucks to Moscow's troops blamed Western sanctions on Thursday amid criticism that its vehicles were arriving in poor condition. The Russian automaker's recent blaming of Western sanctions is a reversal of its statements in September 2023, when it dismissed being blacklisted by the US Treasury Department. Sollers had told Russian media it did not foresee a significant impact as it already restructured its supply chain to prepare for the restrictions.
Persons: Sollers, , UAZ, Dmitry Rogozin, Rogozin, he's, He's, Gazeta.RU Organizations: Service, Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant, NATO, Telegram, Business, Ford Motor Company, Mazda, US Treasury Department, European Union Locations: Russian, Ulyanovsk, Moscow, Ukraine, Roscosmos, Michigan, Russia, Vladivostok, Sollers
Traders and central banks should increase exposure to gold, Bank of America says. The analysts see gold hitting $3,000 an ounce by the end of next year, implying 11% upside. AdvertisementGold is increasingly attractive as other traditional "safe haven" assets face mounting risks, Bank of America strategists said. "Gold looks to be the last 'safe haven' asset standing, incentivising traders including central banks to increase exposure," the strategists said in a Wednesday note. The Bank of America analysts note that gold now makes up 10% of central bank reserves, up from 3% a decade ago.
Persons: Organizations: Bank of America, Service, International Monetary Fund, US Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve
New York CNN —The federal government’s bet on using artificial intelligence to fight financial crime appears to be paying off. The Treasury Department credited AI with helping officials prevent and recover more than $4 billion worth of fraud overall in fiscal 2024, a six-fold spike from the year before. US officials quietly started using AI to detect financial crime in late 2022, taking a page out of what many banks and credit card companies already do to stop bad guys. The Treasury’s use of AI to fight financial crime is just getting started. Officials are testing new data sources to better spot fraud and shady payments, and they are teaming up with state agencies to fight unemployment insurance fraud.
Persons: That’s, “ It’s, Renata Miskell, ” Miskell, it’s, It’s, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Miskell, Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Treasury Department, CNN, Treasury, Treasury Department, Social Security, Internal Revenue Service, Juniper Research Locations: New York, Hong Kong
New developments show the path for Western banks trying to exit Russia has gotten tougher. Moscow will block the sale of Western bank assets to local Russia buyers, sources told Bloomberg. Russia's government has signaled that it will block any efforts from Western banks to offload their local units to Russian-owned entities, according to Bloomberg, who cited people familiar with the matter. Given the fact that Russia has also prevented sales to foreign buyers, these Western banks appear to be stuck, with limited options available. This latest development is an expansion of the Kremlin's ongoing campaign to keep Western firms within its borders.
Persons: , Raiffeisen Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, US, Austrian, UniCredit, Yale School of Management, Reuters Locations: Russia, Moscow, Russian, UniCredit, Abu Dhabi, Ukraine
Just ignore the word ‘tariff’ — it’s a tax
  + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Especially when you hear words like “tariffs.”But, given the economy’s central importance in the 2024 race, it’s worth hammering on an Econ 101 fact: Tariffs are a tax on Americans. Very simply: When the US government decides to put a tariff (read: tax) on, say, Chinese goods, the actual money going to the US Treasury comes from the American company doing the importing. “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff,” Trump said at one point. But it’s important to judge Trump’s first-term trade policies and the Biden-Harris approach against context of the unprecedented tariff wave Trump is planning if he gets to Round Two. Bottom line: Tariffs might be a beautiful word to Trump’s ear, but he’s telling a fictional story about what they do in practice.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, Donald Trump, It’s, , Annette Choi, Katie Lobosco, podcaster Sean Kelly, David Pakman, Kelly, he’s, ” Kelly, Pakman, , Trump, ” Trump, John Micklethwait, Micklethwait, it’s, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, Harris, , Scott Lincicome, United States —, ” David Kelly, Matt Egan Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, CNN, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Economic, of Chicago, Biden, Trump, Republican, Cato Institute, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal, Peterson Institute, Asset Management Locations: New York, China, United States, States
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