And gas prices are down around $3 a gallon ahead of this critical week for holiday driving, while mortgage rates have backed off their recent highs. There is little expectation the Fed will raise interest rates in December at its next meeting after being on pause since July and two benign inflation reports last week. Such a benign inflation outcome would increase our conviction that the coming recession will be mild.”It will be a shortened week for economic data and market activity. The week starts with a read on the economy from the Conference Board’s leading economic index. Still, the overriding narrative at the moment is one that sees a slowdown bringing further relief on the inflation front and continued, if weaker, growth ahead for the economy.

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Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Research, US Bond Strategy, Conference, University of