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AdvertisementIn his first term, Donald Trump ramped up military actions to counter China in the South China Sea. South China Sea observers expect continuity with the Biden administration, which tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships. Chinese Coast Guard holding knives and machetes as they approach Philippine troops in the disputed South China Sea on June 17, 2024. AdvertisementThough Trump hasn't outlined a specific South China Sea plan, he could pursue his broader foreign policy mantra of "peace through strength." "Unrestrained US militarization is precisely what drives Beijing's insecurity and will continue to exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea," Marston said.
Persons: Donald Trump ramped, Donald Trump, Trump, Hunter Marston, Trump hasn't, Biden, Gregory Poling, Joe Biden, Marston, Sari Arho Havrén, Chip Somodevilla, Zeno Leoni, Leoni Organizations: Australian National University, China, Southeast Asia, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Trump, Coast Guard, Armed Forces, AP, CBS, Royal United Services, Ukraine, King's College London's Defense Studies Department, Rand Corporation, Biden's National Security Locations: China, South China, Philippines, Asia, Pacific, Philippine, Europe, South Korea, Palm Beach, South, East Asia
AdvertisementWith North Korean forces believed to be moving toward Russia's front lines, fears are growing that the Ukraine war is about to enter a new phase. Around 3,000 North Korean soldiers arrived in Russia last week, according to US, South Korean, and Ukrainian intelligence. The reports signaled a deepening military alliance between Russia and North Korea — an alliance that has been met with a muted response from China. AdvertisementThe bland statement may have been aimed at balancing its influence over North Korea and Russia with its relationship with Ukraine's Western allies. For North Korea, China has long been its most important ally, providing trade, diplomatic support, and military aid to Kim Jong Un.
Persons: , Ukraine's, Bruce Klingner, Kim Jong Un, Ali Wyne, Sari Arho Havrén, Trump, Ann Marie Dailey Organizations: Service, Council, Foreign Relations, European Union, EU, Bank, China, Heritage Foundation, North, Royal United Services Institute, RAND Locations: China, Russia, Ukraine, South, North Korea, EU, Beijing, North, Eurasia, Korea
North Korea is solidifying ties with Russia, a change from its usual focus on China. AdvertisementRussian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday appeared to confirm reports that North Korea had sent thousands of troops to eastern Russia. "But the Chinese are waiting for an opportunity where North Korea, Russia, and China can come stronger together, and I think North Korea sending the troops to Russia is a testimony to that." AdvertisementFor North Korea, China has long been its most important ally, providing trade, diplomatic support, and military aid to Kim Jong Un. Jim Hoare, a former UK diplomat who was posted to North Korea, told BI that even if China was frustrated by North Korea's increasing closeness to Russia, it should bide its time.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Victor Cha, Jagannath Panda, Sari Arho Havrén, Kim Jong, Havrén, Ali Wyne, Jim Hoare, Hoare Organizations: Analysts, Service, Center for Strategic, International Studies, New York Times, Experts, Stockholm Center, South, Pacific Affairs, Royal United Services Institute, NATO Locations: Korea, Russia, China, North Korea, Ukraine, Washington, Beijing, South Korea, Japan, Eurasia, Pyongyang
Western sanctions have impacted Russia's production of Su-57 fighter jets, according to a research group. AdvertisementWestern sanctions are threatening Russia's production of its prized Su-57 fighter jet, according to a research group. "It's clear that Russia's military industry heavily depends on Western components, particularly in electronics," it said, adding that sanctions have put Russia's Su-57 production "in jeopardy." "There's no question that Western sanctions are having an impact on Russia's ability to generate its most sophisticated military systems," Spurling told BI. Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine have damaged Russia's economy, but their exact impact is difficult to quantify.
Persons: , Russia's Su, Bryden Spurling, Spurling, Su, Justin Bronk, Anders Åslund, Alexandra Prokopenko, Putin, Jay Zagorsky Organizations: Frontelligence, Telegraph, Service, EA, RAND Europe, NATO, UK Ministry of Defence, Royal United Services Institute, Project Syndicate, Carnegie, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Financial, Boston University's Questrom School of Business Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Astrakhan, Swedish, Carnegie Russia
Israel launched ground incursions into Lebanon on Tuesday, opening up a new war front. AdvertisementIsrael faces a security dilemma in deciding how far it should go in its operations inside Lebanon, according to security experts. A more perilous terrain than GazaIsrael's ground operations inside Lebanon bear some resemblance to the ones it conducted in Gaza about a year ago. He mentioned Israel's own "costly" experiences of invasion in Lebanon, including the Second Israeli Invasion of Lebanon of 1982 and the Second Lebanon War in 2006. AdvertisementHowever, those sums, and Israel's overall military calculations, could quickly change if Iran gets involved on the side of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Persons: Israel, , Hezbollah's, Hassan Nasrallah, Ameneh, MENAHEM KAHANA, ACLED, Israel isn't, Ramiz, Yannay Spitzer, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: IDF, Service, Israel Defense Forces, Global Governance Centre, Geneva Graduate Institute, Hezbollah, Getty, Middle East Security, Royal United Services Institute, Raleigh, Israel, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Media, UN, Israeli Locations: Lebanon, Israel, Iran, Raleigh, East, Gaza, Galilee, AFP, Lebanese, Hiyam, Nabatieh, Anadolu, Mehvar, Israeli, Tehran
Officials later confirmed to the Associated Press that some F-16s were indeed in Ukraine. AdvertisementThis means Ukraine may not use its F-16s for the frontline offensives it would prefer, according to military experts and Ukraine's top general. Peter Layton, a fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute who served in Australia's air force, said Ukraine would have to be cautious. He said its small number of aircraft and few pilots would mean Ukraine has to prioritize avoiding losses, so it can fly the F-16s as long as possible. Ukraine also faces challenges when it comes to logistics around the F-16s.
Persons: , Netherlands —, Peter Layton, Justin Bronk, Gen, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Marina Miron, Volodymyr Zelenskyy Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Associated Press, NATO, Business, Times, Griffith Asia Institute, Russian, Royal United Services Institute, Guardian, War Studies Department, King's College London, Department of Defense, Politico, Washington Post, Reagan Locations: Ukraine, — Belgium, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands, London, Russia, Col, Ukrainian
Experts told Business Insider the Ukraine war has underscored how some elements of modern air combat are radically changing. And in fights like Desert Storm and the Iraq War, the West established air superiority by taking out its opponent's air defenses. The Russian air force can't meet Western air forces air to air in a major attack without being "shot to pieces," Bronk said. "Nobody really wants an air war with Russia," said John Baum, a Mitchell Institute expert and retired US Air Force lieutenant colonel. "It is not a highly desirable thing, I think, from either side, to want to have this air war."
Persons: It's, Justin Bronk, hasn't, DIMITAR DILKOFF, Bronk, Andrew Curtis, Mark Cancian, Guy Snodgrass, Hoshang, Giorgio Di Mizio, David Allvin, it's, James Hecker, NATO hadn't, " Hecker, that's, Maxim Shemetov, Fabian Hinz, Riivo Valge, Mattias Eken, They're, Paula Bronstein, Anthony Sweeney, US Army Cancian, REUTERS Lockheed Martin, Timothy Wright, disaggregation, Schmuelgen Jarmo Lindberg, Evelyn Hockstein Valge, John Baum Organizations: Kyiv, NATO, Business, Royal United Services Institute, Western, Getty, US Air Force, Storm, Marine, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Russian Defense Ministry Press, AP Russia, AP, Hudson Institute nonresident, International Institute for Strategic Studies, REUTERS, RAND Corp, Patriots, US Army, West, Patriot, Ukraine, REUTERS Lockheed, Finnish Defense Forces, Eurofighter Typhoons, Mitchell Institute Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Russian, AFP, Iraq, Europe, West, Afghanistan, Baltic, Western Europe, Estonian, Finnish, Finland, Washington
AdvertisementRussian strikes have been recorded at multiple Ukrainian bases in recent weeks. This includes Russia claiming to have hit Ukraine's Mirgorod air base, 100 miles from the border with Russia, destroying five Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jets. "I think their belief is that the more Western weaponry Ukraine has of all sorts, the more formidable its military will become," he said. A Ukrainian Air Force official also said in June that Ukraine would store some of its F-16s abroad, so Russia cannot attack them. It's hard to take out airfieldsRobinson said that destroying air bases is not an easy task.
Persons: , it's, Sukhoi Su, Michael Clarke, Jasmonet Holmes, US Air Force Rajan Menon, Columbia University's, Tim Robinson, Matthew Savill, Chanceler, Robinson, Ukraine's, Clarke, Antony Blinken Organizations: Service, Business, Russia, Air Force, Staff, US Air Force, Columbia, Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War, Peace Studies, UK's Royal Aeronautical Society, Royal United Services Institute, Chanceler Nardone, Ukrainian Air Force Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Soviet, Russian, Leiria, Portugal, Chanceler Nardone Ukraine
Ukraine has mostly been able to counter Russia's air force, blunting its ability to affect the war. AdvertisementRussia may be trying to lure Ukraine's air defense systems away from the front line so its air force can play a bigger role, war analysts said. It theorized that Russia was doing it to bait Ukraine into moving its air defense systems away from the front lines. Ukraine has largely held back Russia's air force despite having a much smaller and older air force itself. AdvertisementIf Ukraine doesn't have enough air defenses, Russia's air force could quickly make its power felt, the experts warned BI earlier this year.
Persons: , Justin Bronk Organizations: Service, Russia, House Republicans, Ukraine, Royal United Services Institute Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Avdiivka, Kyiv
Ukraine's use of the US-made Patriot system has been celebrated. A mixed pastThe MIM-104 Patriot missile system is a ground-based, mobile surface-to-air missile battery that can down crewed and uncrewed aircraft, cruise missiles, and short-range and tactical ballistic missiles. AdvertisementNone of Ukraine's Patriot missile systems have been confirmed destroyed, though there have been Russian claims, but the system has been involved in confirmed kills of Russian aircraft and missiles. "We were again, very much surprised by what we see now, what the effectiveness of the Patriot system seems to be," he said. The problem with Patriot missiles for Ukraine mirrors its main obstacle in trying to fight Russia: A critical shortage of supplies and ammunition.
Persons: , Frederik Mertens, Justin Bronk, Mertens, Joe Raedle, Bronk, Timothy Wright, Nathan White, Mick Ryan, Gilles BASSIGNAC, Houthi, Wright, Jeffrey Lewis, Tom Karako, ANDREW CABALLERO, REYNOLDS, Ryan, Karako, it's, BI's Jake Epstein, Rajan Menon, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine Bronk, Jan Kallberg, Ukraine Oleksandr Gusev Organizations: Service, Patriots, Patriot, U.S . Army Security, Hague, Strategic Studies, Royal United Services Institute, Iraq's, US Army, Raytheon, Iraqi, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Australian Army, Getty Images, Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Missile Defense, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Airforce, Getty, Defense, NATO, Emergency Service, Centre for, Kyiv, Pentagon Locations: Ukraine, Russia, United States, Iraq, Iraqi, Saudi Arabia, Getty Images Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Monterey, Prince, Al, Kyiv, Russian, UAE
AdvertisementGetting unpowered glide bombs to travel far enough from a distance requires "lobbing from very, very high altitudes and speeds," he said. "It gives more time to complete an intercept while those Russian aircraft are at higher altitudes," he said. AdvertisementEken said that launching glide bombs at distant targets from higher altitudes exposes Russian planes to longer-range Ukrainian air defense systems. Even so, Ukraine's recent success in shooting them down is unlikely to be a game changer in the war. Russia's glide bombs are also causing huge damage to Ukraine, and Russia putting more jets in the sky means more harm.
Persons: , Justin Bronk, Bronk, Mattias Eken, Eken Organizations: Service, Ukraine's Ministry of Defence, Royal United Services Institute, International Institute for Strategic Studies, RAND Corporation Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian
Read previewUkraine is running out of key missiles to protect its skies against Russian attacks, a development that could allow Russia's air force to firmly enter the conflict. But Ukraine has been able to largely hold Russia's air force back from the conflict since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Reduced Ukrainian air defenses mean the severity of Russia's drone and missile strikes will likely increase — and its air force could also come more into play. But without enough air defense systems "the risk is we see more and more of the Russian air force actually being able to conduct battlefield interdiction," he added. "The Russian Air Force is still a significant threat," Bronk said.
Persons: , Frederik Mertens, Viacheslav, Justin Bronk, SAMS, Bronk, it's, SAMs Organizations: Service, Business, Getty, Hague, Strategic Studies, Ukrainian Tactical Aviation, New York Times, REUTERS, Royal United Services Institute, Russian Air Force Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Russian, Lyman, Avdiivka, Kyiv
AdvertisementIf confirmed, it would mark strike twenty-five in a remarkable kill streak that Ukraine told CNN represents the disabling of a full third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. AdvertisementUkraine's most astonishing triumph came early, in April 2022, when it sank Russia's Black Sea flagship, the Moskva. "Ukraine has been extremely successful against the Black Sea Fleet, forcing Russia to relocate assets further away from Ukraine and the frontline," Germond told BI. AdvertisementDown, but not outIs Ukraine's Black Sea success a solution to Ukraine's stalled ground offensive? This means that any ships sunk result in a longer-term decrease in the Black Sea Fleet.
Persons: , Caesar, Ukraine Navy's, Murad Sezer, Sahaidachny, MAX DELANY, it's, Basil Germond, Germond, Michael Kofman, ” Sidharth, Kaushal, Russia can’t, Organizations: Service, Business, Russia's Ministry of Defence, Ukraine, CNN, Reuters, Getty, Military, Lancaster University, Shadow, Black, The Carnegie Endowment, Planet Labs PBC, Labs, UK’s Ministry of Defence, Royal United Services Institute, Montreux Convention, NATO, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence Locations: Ukraine, Crimea, Bosphorus, Sevastopol, Moskva, Russian, Syria, Rostov, Minsk, Russia, France, Novorossiysk, Odesa, Ukrainian
Read previewUkraine's home-developed naval drones are offering vital capabilities that cruise missiles just don't have, a naval expert told Business Insider. This could have a sizable impact on Ukraine's ongoing efforts to subdue Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Defense Intelligence of UkraineSidharth Kaushal, a naval expert at the UK's Royal United Services Institute, outlined Ukraine's sea drones' limitations and advantages to BI. "The Ukrainians don't have very many cruise missiles that can target things at the ranges that they've been able to go after" with sea drones, he added. Since then, sea drones have been involved in multiple high-profile attacks, including reported strikes on two Russian landing ships in November.
Persons: , Russia's, Kyrylo, Ukraine Sidharth, Kaushal, they've, Ukraine hasn't, Ivan Khurs, Basil Germond Organizations: Service, UK's Ministry of Defence, Business, Autonomous Guard, Defense Intelligence, Royal United Services Institute, CNN, Russia's Defence Ministry, Russian Defence Ministry, REUTERS, Lancaster University Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Russia's, Ukrainian, REUTERS Ukraine, Russian, Crimea
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewA Ukrainian special military unit has described how it reportedly sunk one of Russia's Black Sea Fleet ships last week using six sea drones powered by Jet Skis, or civilian personal watercraft. A still from a video shared by Defense Intelligence of Ukraine on February 1, 2024, purportedly of the corvette Ivanovets ahead of its claimed destruction. Speaking to CNN, one of the drone pilots, identified by the call sign "13," said that the drones were powered by Jet Skis and controlled via a Starlink connection. In total, 10 MAGURA V5s were sent on the mission, with six hitting the ship, the pilot told CNN.
Persons: , Kyrylo, Sidharth, Dmytro Pletenchuk Organizations: Service, Fleet, Jet, Defense Intelligence, Business, Autonomous Guard, CNN, Royal United Services Institute, Kyiv Post Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Ukrainian, Kyiv
AdvertisementAdvertisementUkraine doubled down on claims on Friday that it had damaged a Russian patrol ship near Sevastopol with "Sea Baby" drones. If confirmed, the strike could add to long-term pressure on Russia's ability to maintain and repair its Black Sea Fleet, experts say. Russia is already barred from bringing reinforcements to its Black Sea Fleet. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Consequently, the Black Sea Fleet will have to be increasingly prudent with its remaining assets," he added. AdvertisementAdvertisementThis squeeze on the Black Sea Fleet ultimately hampers some of its ability to project power over those waters, Germond said.
Persons: , Basil Germond, Pavel Derzhavin, Pavel, Sutton, rove, ake Organizations: Service, Fleet, Lancaster University, Crimean Telegram, Crimean, Russian Telegram, Black, Russia's Ministry of Defense Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Sevastopol, Russia, Russia's, Ukrainian
Russia's move of its Black Sea Fleet to safer waters signals its waning power there, experts told Insider. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia's withdrawal of ships from a key Crimean base to safer ports shows it has "clearly lost its control" over the Black Sea in naval and geopolitical terms, a top naval expert told Insider. Pointing to those attacks, James Heappey, a UK defense minister, said during a defense event in Warsaw last Tuesday that the move signaled the "functional defeat" of the Black Sea Fleet. As of Sunday, multiple ships carrying grain, sunflower oil, and metals had sailed out of Ukraine's ports in the northwestern Black Sea, The Guardian reported. AdvertisementAdvertisementHardline pro-Kremlin Telegram account Rybar wrote on Friday that it's "difficult to accept" that "the Black Sea Fleet cannot fully ensure its security now."
Persons: , Basil Germond, Germond, James Heappey, Heappey, Armed Forces @JSHeappey Organizations: Fleet, Service, Lancaster University, Montreux Convention, UK's Ministry of Defence, Black, Armed Forces, Warsaw Security, — Ministry of Defence Locations: Sevastopol, Russia, Ukraine, Turkish, Novorossiysk, Crimea, Warsaw, Ukrainian
Russia has found new ways of obtaining US tech for its cruise missiles. Officials, experts, and media reports have laid out the routes Russia is using to import the banned or restricted technology. Ukrainian officials last Tuesday said that Russian K-100 cruise missiles used in recent attacks were built in 2023, using more than 30 foreign components, meaning that Western sanctions weren't working. The Kazakhstan back door for tech suppliesThe US sanctions include a ban on the sale of technology that could be used by Russia to build weapons. According to the Economist report, logic boards from California-made Altera Flex have been used in building the KH-100 cruise missiles Russia has used in attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Persons: Andriy Yermak, STRINGER, Gary Sommerville, we've, Sommerville, Mykola Danilyuk, Danilyuk Organizations: US, Service, Getty, Royal United Services Institute, Kazakhstan's, National, Russia, Kazakh, Russian, Silverado, New York Times, Free Russia Foundation, eBay, Amazon Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russian, Kazakhstan, Kazakh, US, Armenia, Ukrainian, California
Ukraine is increasingly using small, cheap FPV drones to hit outsize targets. Mykhailo operates the drones using a joystick and a virtual reality headset — hence the video game comparisons. It's not the first time the video game comparison has been made. In an interview with The Guardian earlier this month, a Ukrainian drone operator called Olexandr said: "It's like playing a computer game, you know?" Ukraine is employing many of these cheap FPV drones, which can be made from off-the-shelf commercial drones and kitted out with explosives.
Persons: Mykhailo, Olexandr, Insider's Alia Shoaib, Michael Peck, James Patton Rogers Organizations: Service, Reuters, Russian, Guardian, Air Assault Force, UK's Royal United Services Institute Locations: Ukrainian, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russia
They're layered with treacherous obstacles like mines, ditches, and anti-tank dragons teeth. Close up of Russian trenches, fortifications, and tank obstacles in the Kherson region on November 15, 2022. Dragons teeth obstacles can be seen in the three rows of gray dots before the trenches and fortified positions. Nazi Germany's defenses, like the Siegfried Line built to defend its west, also featured dragon's teeth, machine-gun pillboxes, razor wire and mines. As Insider's Jake Epstein has reported, Russian positions may be vulnerable to attack from assaults that cross open terrain and steer clear of roads.
Persons: , Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds, Brady Africk, Siegfried, Jake Epstein Organizations: Service, Technologies, UK's Royal United Services Institute, American Enterprise Institute, US Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Kherson, Dnipro, Nazi
Drone maker Valeriy Borovyk told CNN that he's building "very stealthy" drones for Ukraine. He said the drones can be used to carry out surprise attacks on "very expensive" Russian equipment. He told CNN that his team is developing some long-range drones, as well. Drone maker Valeriy Borovyk told CNN that he calls the drones "Vidsyich," which is Ukrainian for "repel." "We mostly concentrate [our attacks] on very expensive [Russian] equipment," he told CNN.
Persons: Valeriy Borovyk, , James Patton Rogers, Mia Jankowicz, Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, Fedorov Organizations: CNN, Service, UK's Royal United Services Institute, University of Southern, Digital Transformation, Russia Locations: Ukraine, Ukrainian, Moscow, Russia, University of Southern Denmark
In the early months of the Russia-Ukraine war, Bayraktar TB2 drones were hailed as Ukraine's savior. However, a year later, nearly all of them are believed to have been shot down by Russian forces. "Once the Russian military got its act together, it was able to down many TB2s," Bendett said. Electronic warfare is a "critical component" of Russia's tactics and contributing to the enormous losses of Ukrainian drones, a report released by the UK's Royal United Services Institute found. Ukraine still had the initiative, but "as the Russian military adapts, there can be no room for complacency," it said.
Russian forces unleashed a barrage of long-range precision weapons on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure this week. Russian forces, he said, do not have the capability to do this "three or four days a week for the next two years. Bombing civilians is 'unlikely' to break Ukraine's will to fightIt's unclear exactly how many long-range munitions Russian forces have left in the arsenal. Getty ImagesInsider was unable to independently verify the total number of long-range munitions left in the hands of the Russian forces. Gentile said that if Russian forces want to strike targets deeper in Ukraine, they don't really have a choice beyond long-range munitions.
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