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☆ 6 Wall Street experts share why investors could be overestimating how much the Fed will cut rates after August's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The print is causing concern that inflation may not be going away, which would mean higher interest rates than markets expect going forward. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer, Regan CapitalWeinand says the market's current outlook on rate cuts will only take place if the economy deteriorates significantly. If inflation does slow that much, the Fed would likely cut rates faster than just a quarter percent per meeting over the next 3-6 months," Adams said in an email. "However, the stickiness of service price inflation and shelter inflation suggests the Fed will cut rates slower than financial markets currently price in." This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets that have priced over 250 bps of rate cuts by the end of 2025."

Persons: Brian Rose, UBS Global Wealth Management Rose, Rose, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital Weinand, Bill Adams, Adams, Peter Perkins, MRB Partners Perkins, Josh Jamner, ClearBridge Investments Jamner, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, CPI, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth, Fed, Comerica Bank, MRB Partners, Investment, ClearBridge Investments, Independent, bps

☆ Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race spells uncertainty for the 'Trump trade'
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race is causing market uncertainty. Analysts now expect more market volatility after Biden pulled out of the race. AdvertisementUS President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential election is throwing fresh uncertainty into the markets for a second straight week. Investors were already trying to position themselves for the so-called "Trump trade" following the failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on July 13. Markets at large were relatively calm following Biden's withdrawal after the Trump trade gripped sentiment last week.

Persons: Joe Biden's, Trump, Biden, —, Donald Trump, Mark Haefele, Jim Reid, Kyle Rodda, Harris, Chris Weston, Pepperstone, Kamala Harris, Biden's, Haefele Organizations: Service, Trump, Republican, UBS Global Wealth Management's, Nasdaq, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Democrats, Democratic Party, Democratic, UBS

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S

☆ Buy quality fixed income, sell credit risk fixed income: UBS Global Wealth Management's Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBuy quality fixed income, sell credit risk fixed income: UBS Global Wealth Management's Jason DrahoJason Draho, UBS head of asset allocation, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss his market moves and Fed expectation.

Persons: Jason Draho Jason Draho Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS

☆ The Fed has overtightened, says UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul Donovan
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed has overtightened, says UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest CPI report, the outlook for rate hikes, and more.

Persons: UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan, Steve Liesman Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS Global Wealth Management

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. While the 30-year Treasury yield crossed above 5% for the first time since August 2007, the 10-year and five-year yields hit their highest since 2007. The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), Wall Street's "fear gauge", briefly hit a five-month high and topped its long-term average of 20. A day after U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in August, investors will closely monitor September ADP National Employment data at 8:15 a.m. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Kevin McCarthy, Mark Haefele, Haefele, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Eli Lilly, LLY.N, Mike Mason, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, U.S . House Republicans, Treasury, Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow e, Nasdaq, Federal, UBS Global Wealth, Institute, Supply, PMI, Chicago, Traders, Dow, Intel, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Investors are betting that rate cuts are coming early next year. Here's what market experts are urging you do right now to cash in when rates do fall.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

10-year Treasury yields are surging as the economy stays hot. For the first time since 2007, 10-year yields rose above 4.3% on Thursday after seeing a 31% surge since April. If or when that eventually happens, Treasury yields are likely to follow, presenting those who hold the assets with an opportunity. Bond yields fall when demand for the assets rise, pushing up their price. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees 10-year rates averaging 3.7% in the years ahead.

Persons: Gautam Khanna, Jason Draho, Lawrence Gillium, Craig Brothers, Brothers, Leslie Falconio, David Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Wall, Insight Investment, UBS Global Wealth, LPL, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Morgan Asset Management, Monopoly, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ A recession is only delayed as the economy continues to lose steam. Here's exactly how 8 top strategists and money managers recommend investing in this turbulent market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Now, the inverse has happened as stocks rally, inflation steadily falls, and the labor market stays healthy. By any historical measure, this is still a really strong labor market," he said. "There's a lot of market concern — understandably so — about the sustainability of the strong labor market," Porter said. "There are clear signs that we're weakening at the margin," Schurmeier said of the labor market. "And they're able to thread the needle on the other part of their mandate, which is the labor market."

Persons: John Porter, Jason Draho, Porter, David Lebovitz, Lebovitz, they're, Draho, Jonathan Curtis, Curtis, Brent Schutte, Schutte, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, they'll, shouldn't, Charles Lemonides, Lemonides, Greg Calnon, Calnon, Franklin Equity Group's Curtis, he's Organizations: Newton Investment Management, UBS Global Wealth, Asset Management, Franklin Equity Group, Workers, Northwestern, Harbor Capital Advisors, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Franklin Equity

☆ Here are 3 ways the Fed messed up since 2021 and how it's impacting the economy, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve has made three big mistakes since inflation took off in 2021, according to UBS. "Today's rate hike will probably have to be reversed in a relatively short space of time," UBS said. Today's additional rate hike from the Fed gets to the root of what has went wrong. These are the three big mistakes made by the Fed over the past two years, and how it will impact the economy, according to UBS. "A sensible recognition of the declining quality of economic data would have stopped the blind hike, hike, hike strategy."

Persons: Paul Donovan, Donovan, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management's, Fed Locations: Ukraine

U.S. stocks have made big gains this year, but the performance across global stocks has been uneven so far. So where will global stocks go in the second half of the year? Five of the strategists polled expect global markets to fall, while another five say the stocks will beat their U.S. counterparts. Global market bulls Those who expect global stocks to beat the U.S. are most bullish on the U.K., Europe and Japan. Global market bears Andreas Bruckner, European equity strategist at BofA Global Research, predicts that Europe's Stoxx 600 will end the year at 390 — a nearly 15% decline from Monday's close.

Persons: Christian Abuide, Karim Chedid, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Andreas Bruckner, Mark Haefele, Bruckner, Roger Lee, Lee, Haefele, Carrier Organizations: CNBC Pro, U.S, Lombard, iShares, BofA Global Research, UBS Global Wealth, Nasdaq, UBS, RBC Wealth Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe

☆ Investors are eyeing China's neighbors as the recovery from 'zero-Covid' slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesChina's lackluster economic recovery since emerging from strict "zero-Covid" lockdowns has caused weaker sentiment toward the country, prompting investors to look for alternative options — like its near neighbors. Higher targets for JapanForeign investors have undoubtedly been key in driving the Japanese market, maintaining the highest levels the Nikkei has seen since 1990. During the same period last year, foreign investors had sold a net 1.73 trillion yen approximately. Wall Street banks including Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale are among those that are optimistic on Japanese stocks, holding "overweight" positions. Upside for Korea tech stocksSouth Korea is another market closely watched as concerns over China's recovery linger.

Persons: Goldman, Andrew Tilton, Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett, India's, Goldman Sachs, Tilton, Morgan Stanley, ROE, Mike Wilson, we've, Price, Goldman's Tilton, Rhee Chang, Nomura, Chloe Andrieu, Pranjul Bhandari, Bhandari Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Asia, Pacific, Japan Foreign, Nikkei, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Societe Generale, Equity, U.S, UBS Global Wealth, U.S ., UBS, The Bank of, CNBC, Citi, AFP, Afp, Korea Financial Investment Association, South Korean, Fitch, Ben Advisors Locations: Macau, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Goldman Sachs, Berkshire, South, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wall, Korea, Asia, The Bank of Korea, Fuyang, China's, Anhui, Indonesia

☆ US stocks end mixed as soft jobs data revives fears of a looming recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks were mixed on Wednesday as traders digested weak jobs data. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1% as traders retreated on recession fears. Traders were mulling ADP private payroll data, which showed that US companies added fewer jobs than expected. Data showed private payrolls increased by 145,000 last month, far below estimates of 210,000. In a note to clients on Wednesday, UBS Global Wealth Management's investment chief, Mark Haefele, said recession risks have increased.

☆ Artificial intelligence is on the brink of an 'iPhone moment' and can boost the world economy by $15.7 trillion in 7 years, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America strategists predicted artificial intelligence will revolutionize everything as it teeters on its "iPhone moment." Bank of AmericaLarge language models like ChatGPT make massive amounts of information accessible to everyone, without high barrier to entry or required training. In addition, the exponential rate of technological development suggests that, within a decade, AI models could be a million times more powerful than they are today. Meanwhile, UBS is forecasting that the artificial intelligence hardware and services market will reach $90 billion by 2025. In 2020, it was worth about $36 billion, per IDC and Bloomberg Intelligence data.

☆ Why all the big bank equity analysts think the market is going to drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a stellar start to 2023, many big bank analysts are skeptical that this rally can continue and urge investors to prepare for another leg lower. "We believe investors should fade the YTD rally as recession risks are merely postponed rather than diminished," wrote JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic in a January note to clients. Meanwhile, Barclays' Venu Krishna wrote in a Monday note that equities have "jumped the gun." Several factors, including falling recession risks and a correction in the CBOE Volatility Index and other spreads, also support a long-due fade in the market rally, wrote Credit Suisse's Patrick Palfrey in a January note. "We continue to recommend that equity investors position defensively and be prepared for additional volatility ahead," she said.

☆ The dollar's worst tumble in 12 years could be just the beginning — and the Fed ending rate hikes will fuel 'ongoing weakness', a UBS strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar's recent slump will extend through 2023, according to UBS Global Wealth Management's Dominic Schnider. The greenback started 2023 on a weak footing, after the biggest quarterly loss since 2010 in the three months through December. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. "We probably are during 2023 going to see ongoing dollar weakness – that's the main narrative," Schnider told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" Friday. "It's very simple – obviously the Fed is going to come to an end in hiking with the CPI number pointing in the right direction.

Their joint communique released by the U.S. Treasury late on Wednesday did give Japan something - but it was thin gruel. read more"Recognizing that many currencies have moved significantly this year with increased volatility, we reaffirm our exchange rate commitments as elaborated in May 2017," the G7 wrote. And, for the record, the 2017 phraseology was that excess volatility and disorderly currency moves have negative impacts on their economies and financial stability. read more"We cannot tolerate excessive volatility in the currency market driven by speculative moves," he opined after. The big question is whether this dollar surge is in fact a "short run" aberration or whether it is a more permanent feature of the global landscape.

☆ The dollar is sliding against the yen after Japan's market intervention, but the yen's advance won't last long, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US dollar dropped against the Japanese yen on Thursday after Japan intervened in the currency market for the first time since 1998. The dollar lost as much as 2.6% when it hit 140.33 against the Japanese yen, the lowest level since September 6. It was Japan's first currency market intervention since 1998. The dollar this year has climbed 25% against Japan's currency, underscoring the greenback's broad strength against major currencies as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises rates to combat inflation. "Alongside growing rate differentials, Japan's weak trade balance (in part due to elevated energy prices) has also contributed to the yen's weakening.

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