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☆ America now looks to the Fed for clues on future rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The move comes as inflation remains on a downward trend while the job market continues to lose momentum. While that has helped rein in price pressures, it also puts the job market in jeopardy. So I’m going to be patient.”Still, rate cuts are expected to stretch through 2025, even during a Trump presidency, according to economists. On one hand, there’s evidence that America’s job market has continued to lose momentum in recent months. But since Trump’s economic vision could eventually stoke inflation, that could mean the Fed delivers fewer rate cuts in the coming years.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, “ I’m, Raphael Bostic, ”, Kamala Harris, Felipe Villarroel, —, Trump, hasn’t, Arthur Burns, Richard Nixon, Ben Bernanke Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, President, White, Atlanta Fed, Trump, TwentyFour Asset Management, Fed, CNN, White House, Capitol Locations: Jackson , Mississippi

☆ I think Bank of Japan will hike interest rate by 10 basis points today: Portfolio manager
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI think Bank of Japan will hike interest rate by 10 basis points today: Portfolio managerGordon Shannon from TwentyFour Asset Management says while the Japanese economy is not overheating, there is political pressure for Bank of Japan to raise interest rates given the demographic challenges.

Persons: Gordon Shannon Organizations: Bank, TwentyFour, Management, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan

Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina

For investors who had expected more economic strife, sticking to those calls has become increasingly difficult. "It's going to take longer for rates to rally," said John Madziyire, senior portfolio manager and head of U.S. Treasuries and TIPS at Vanguard Fixed Income Group. "Recession or no recession, we think the probability of higher-for-longer interest rates is far greater than the likelihood of near-term cuts," credit investment firm Oaktree Capital said in a recent note. A re-acceleration in inflation could lead to higher rates than the market has priced in. Some are navigating the uncertainty by combining exposure to higher-yielding short term bonds with long-term bonds in case of a downturn.

Persons: –, Felipe Villarroel, John Madziyire, Oaktree Capital, Danielle Poli, Anthony Woodside, Woodside, Stephen Dover, Chip Hughey, Davide Barbuscia, Richard Chang Organizations: Bond, Federal Reserve, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of, Fitch's U.S, Treasury, Oaktree, Fund, Reuters, U.S, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, Truist Advisory Services, Vanguard, Thomson Locations: U.S, Oaktree

Specialist asset managers minted CLOs worth more than half a trillion dollars in 2021, a year of heavy post-pandemic monetary stimulus. S&P Global estimates that more than one in 25 U.S. businesses and almost one in 25 European companies will default by March 2024. That has squeezed equity returns, and without equity investors, CLOs cannot be put together. S&P calculates that while CLO equity investors were able to get a 15% annual return before 2022, deals priced now would offer about 7%. "The (CLO) equity doesn't make enough money to justify buying it."

Persons: Florence Lo, CLOs, Morgan, Rob Shrekgast, KopenTech, Neha Khoda, It's, Marta Stojanova, You've, Aza Teeuwen, Laila Kollmorgen, Kollmorgen, tranches, BoFA, Naomi Rovnick, Chiara Elisei, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of America, Casino, Bed, TwentyFour, PineBridge Investments, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: CLOs, U.S

There are some signs that the broader $275 billion AT1 market is recovering. Reuters GraphicsLast month, Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) was the first major global bank to sell AT1s since the March rout. With time, analysts expect UBS to sell AT1s aplenty to meet its capital requirements. It has a 700 million Singapore dollar ($755 million) AT1 bond repayable in November followed by a heftier $2.5 billion bond in January. RATINGS GAMEInvestor appetite for a UBS AT1 could also hinge on its future credit profile.

[1/2] The Credit Suisse logo is displayed on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 16, 2023. Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders get nothing under the UBS merger deal. A WisdomTree exchange traded fund that tracks a broad index of bank AT1s, has dropped 11% in the past fortnight. Credit Suisse AT1s made up less than 3% of the fund just before the Swiss bank's rescue, the asset manager disclosed. Deutsche Bank AT1 debt is trading at 74 cents on the dollar, off last week's lows around 67 cents but still below levels seen before the Credit Suisse writedown, Tradeweb data shows.

☆ As banking sector confidence falters, central banks called on to do more
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, March 26 (Reuters) - Some investors and analysts are calling for more coordinated interventions from central banks to restore financial stability, as they fear that tumult in the global banking sector will continue amid rising interest rates. On Friday, shares of Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) plunged amid concerns that regulators and central banks have yet to contain the worst shock to the banking sector since the 2008 global financial crisis. Global central banks including the Federal Reserve have recently taken measures to enhance the provision of liquidity through the standing U.S. dollar swap line arrangements. "The issue with European banks and big U.S. banks at the moment is confidence. Meanwhile, overall deposits in the banking sector have declined by almost $600 billion since the Fed began to raise interest rates last year, the biggest banking sector deposit outflow on record, noted Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

Concerns have been heightened by the wild swings in market interest rates since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) last week. Fund managers advise shunning high-yield bonds, despite their attractive yields, because of the risk these bonds could be hit by ratings downgrades, defaults and a squeeze in company earnings. Refinitiv Lipper data showed high-yield bond funds, after seeing an inflow of $7.63 billion in January, faced an outflow of $11.51 billion in February. Reuters GraphicsSo far this month, high-yield bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a total outflow of $506 million. However, safer money market funds have attracted $28.76 billion, and government bond funds have seen an inflow of $15.52 billion since February.

Markets have ramped up bets on further rate increases after the ECB has already tightened monetary policy by 3 percentage points since July. ECB President Christine Lagarde reckons a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike "is very, very likely". "The ECB is prioritising getting policy rates as high as needed and nothing else is as important," Pictet Wealth Management's head of macroeconomic research Frederik Ducrozet, said. Signs of economic resilience suggest ECB growth forecasts, also out on Thursday, could be revised upwards for 2023. Falling energy prices and a stronger euro, up around 6% in trade-weighted terms from August lows, suggest headline inflation forecasts could be revised lower.

☆ SVB collapse a sign of pain coming from end of easy-cash era
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - The easy-cash era is over and its impact is only just starting to felt by world markets yet to see the end of the sharpest interest rate hiking cycle in decades. European banks slid on Friday after JPMorgan (JPM.N) and BofA (BAC.N) shares fell over 5% on Thursday. BofA noted European banks' bond holdings have not grown since 2015. And with defaults rising, the focus is on the less visible private debt markets, which have ballooned to $1.4 trillion from $250 billion in 2010. Reuters Graphics5/FOR SALEReal estate markets started cracking last year and house prices will fall further this year.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking in Davos recently, stressed the need for monetary policy to "stay the course." "There were questions recently about why markets don't understand what the ECB will do next," said ING's Brzeski. With updated ECB projections not out until March, Lagarde is likely to be pressed on how the ECB views core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. The ECB targets headline inflation at 2%, but officials are focused on a core measure. Reuters Graphics5/ Is the ECB more upbeat on the growth outlook?

☆ European companies are tapping bond markets again as investors return
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

German housing giant Vonovia (VNAn.DE) last week raised 1.5 billion euros ($1.54 billion) amid strong investor demand in primary markets, a bright spark for a beleaguered property sector. Also noteworthy was a 750 million euro hybrid bond sale from Spanish telecoms firm Telefonica (TEF.MC), the first offering of its kind in Europe in two months. There were no hybrid bond deals in June and July, and only one transaction in September before Telefonica's offering. New hybrid bond sales total just over 10 billion euros so far this year, compared with 30 billion euros for the whole of 2021. In the broader market, investment grade corporate issuers have raised 258 billion euros so far this year compared with 322 billion euros in 2021, according to Refinitiv data.

☆ Pension fund blowup faces brutal second act
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-06 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Bank of England announced a 65 billion pound gilt-buying scheme to stabilise markets and rescue pension funds. Bailey’s move may have been too late to stop some pension funds from having to close out their hedges, like interest rate swaps or futures. The rate at which retirement payments are discounted will also fall, pushing up the pension fund’s future liabilities, but without a corresponding asset gain. Meanwhile, investors like Goldman Sachs are hoovering up cut-price stakes in private equity vehicles, which LDI funds are selling. They also held 78 billion pounds and 317 billion pounds in property and equities respectively.

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