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☆ Mexico inflation still easing but rate cuts seen only next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A man buys vegetables at a stall in an outdoor market in downtown of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. Consumer prices rose 0.38% in October, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures, mainly driven by core inflation including higher food, beverage and service costs. The annual headline inflation reading came in slightly below economist forecasts in a Reuters poll, which stood at 4.28%. The closely monitored core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.39% during the month, while annual core inflation came in at 5.5%, in line with market expectations. "This report strengthens our view that headline inflation will remain under control over the coming months," said Pantheon Macroeconomics chief Latin America economist Andres Abadia, but "admittedly services inflation is still a bit sticky.

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Jason Tuvey, Banxico, Andres Abadia, Gabriel Araujo, Steven Grattan, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, Capital, Sao Paulo, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Bank of Mexico, Banxico, America, Sao

☆ Mexican core inflation slows more than expected to 20-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Natalia Siniawski | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That drop was off the back of lower core goods inflation, Capital Economics analyst Jason Tuvey said, while services inflation - which central bank board members have described as "sticky" - remained above 5% year over year. Annual core inflation in the second half of the month was "good news," said central bank board member Jonathan Heath on social media network X. Headline inflation edged downward to 4.64% in the month, in line with market expectations and its lowest since March 2021. That was driven by softer core price pressures, Capital's Tuvey said, but with inflation in the services sector still proving stubborn, the central bank is still unlikely to kick off an interest-rate easing cycle soon. The closely watched core price index rose 0.27% during the month (MXCPIX=ECI).

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Jason Tuvey, Jonathan Heath, Capital's Tuvey, Andres Abadia, Natalia Siniawski, Kylie Madry, Frances Kerry, Aurora Ellis Organizations: REUTERS, Capital, Reuters, of, Macroeconomics, America, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, of Mexico

☆ Bank of Mexico again holds interest rate firm, even as region begins cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Brendan O'Boyle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The logo of Mexico's Central Bank (Banco de Mexico) is seen at its building in downtown Mexico City, Mexico February 28, 2019. The unanimous decision by the central bank's five-member board is the third consecutive rate hold since Banxico, as the Bank of Mexico is known, halted a two-year hiking cycle in May amid easing inflation. Rate cuts in Mexico are unlikely until late 2023, analysts say, even as central banks begin easing their monetary policy. Annual inflation in Mexico slowed for the sixth consecutive month in July, official data showed on Wednesday, landing at 4.79%, but still above the central bank's target. In recent weeks, central banks in Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay have cut their interest rates after aggressive monetary tightening cycles.

Persons: Daniel Becerril, Banxico, Jason Tuvey, Brendan O'Boyle, Sarah Morland, Anthony Esposito, Richard Chang Organizations: Mexico's Central Bank, Banco, REUTERS, Bank of, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Banco de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico, MEXICO, Bank of Mexico, Latin America, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Uruguay

The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) kept rates at 8.25% as inflation forecasts came in lower than previous ones and economic conditions improved. Kganyago said future rate decisions would continue to depend on economic data and risks to the inflation outlook. The bank expects inflation to fall back to the midpoint of the target range sustainably only by the third quarter of 2025. Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note that rate cuts were likely to materialise only early next year. "The split vote suggests that inflation concerns continue to linger and it is likely to take some time before a majority on the MPC are in favour of rate cuts," Tuvey said.

Persons: Lesetja Kganyago, Kganyago, Jason Tuvey, Tuvey, Kuben Naidoo, Nellie Peyton, Tannur Anders, Kopano, Anait Miridzhanian, Promit Mukherjee, Rachel Savage, Alexander Winning, Olivia Kumwenda, Frances Kerry Organizations: South, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Capital Economics, MPC, Thomson Locations: PRETORIA

☆ Analysis: Nigeria's Tinubu faces daunting hurdles after reform sprint
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Macdonald Dzirutwe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nigeria today faces record debt, unemployment is worryingly high, and power shortages have contributed to years of anaemic growth. "The path to political power in Nigeria, over time, has always been through these vested interests," said Bismarck Rewane, CEO at Financial Derivatives Company in Lagos. ENTRENCHED NETWORKSTinubu's ambitions to build a $1 trillion economy in eight years could come unstuck in part due to chronic power shortages. Getting the lights on would be a major win, but to do so some say Tinubu must remove grid subsidies and cut red tape. Tinubu suspended the head of the financial and economic crimes agency, but has yet to outline an anti-graft plan.

Persons: Bola Tinubu, Jason Tuvey, Bismarck Rewane, Tinubu, Tunau Taiwo, Nnamdi Obasi, Prince Ojeabulu, Muhammadu Buhari, jihadists, beholden, Joe Bavier, Conor Humphries Organizations: New, Capital Economics, Financial Derivatives Company, International, Rensource Energy, Nigeria Delta, Observers, Thomson Locations: Nigeria, LAGOS, New Nigerian, Lagos

☆ Mexico's annual inflation hits lowest since August 2021, beating forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MEXICO CITY, June 8 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual inflation rate slowed in May for a fourth consecutive month to 5.84%, data from statistics agency INEGI showed on Thursday, beating forecasts and continuing a downward trend spurred by a long cycle of rate hikes. Headline inflation came in below a forecast of 5.90% and is now at its lowest since August 2021. Jason Tuvey, Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Capital Economics said that inflation forecasts remained overly optimistic. Banxico does not expect inflation to reach its target rate of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point, until late 2024. Annual core inflation, considered a better gauge of price trends, was 7.39%, as forecast.

Persons: Jason Tuvey, Isabel Woodford, Jason Neely, Christina Fincher Organizations: MEXICO CITY, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Mexican

Annual headline inflation in the first half of the month reached 7.94%, beating both the 7.77% recorded in the month of December and economists' forecasts of 7.86%, though still below the two-decade high of 8.70% registered in August and September. That means annual inflation remains far above the Bank of Mexico's target rate of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point. It is unlikely that the bank will make any cuts to the interest rate in the next six months, Bank of Mexico board member Jonathan Heath said in an interview last week. In the first half of January, according to statistics agency INEGI, consumer prices rose 0.46% compared to the previous two-week period, while the core index rose 0.44%, both also exceeding market estimates. Mexico's Latin American peer Brazil, where monetary tightening is on pause, also released mid-month inflation data on Tuesday, with prices slightly beating market forecasts.

☆ Mexico inflation below forecasts in December, core inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MEXICO CITY, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Mexico's headline inflation ended 2022 slightly below analysts' expectations, while core inflation finally appeared to have peaked, data from the national statistics agency showed on Monday. Annual headline inflation in December reached 7.82%, up moderately from 7.80% in November, but still below the record 8.70% reached in August and September. (MXCCPI=ECI)Economists polled by Reuters had expected annual headline inflation to come in at 7.86% and core inflation at 8.36%. On a monthly basis, core inflation was 0.65% in December. (MXCPIX=ECI)Meanwhile, monthly headline inflation was 0.38% in the period, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures.

MEXICO CITY, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of Mexico raised its key interest rate by an expected 50 basis points to a record 10.50% on Thursday, tempering its monetary tightening pace amid a slowdown in inflation while suggesting it could hike rates at least once more. The decision follows four consecutive 75-basis-point hikes and comes after the U.S. Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by 50 basis points Wednesday after four consecutive hikes of its own of three-quarters of a percentage point. "The board considers it will still be necessary to raise the reference rate in its next monetary policy meeting," said Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known. "Subsequently, it will assess if the reference rate needs to be further adjusted as well as the pace of adjustments based on the prevailing conditions," it added. Banxico reiterated that inflation is projected to converge to its 3% target in the third quarter of 2024.

☆ Mexico core inflation higher than expected in early Nov, rate hikes to continue
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MEXICO CITY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual consumer prices slowed more than expected during the first half of November, but the core inflation index - which remains a main concern in the country as it grapples with high costs - came in above market forecasts. Data from national statistics agency INEGI showed on Thursday that annual headline inflation in Mexico hit 8.14% in the period, down from 8.53% a month ago and also below consensus of 8.24% in a Reuters poll of economists. The latest inflation figures backed expectations that the local central bank, known as Banxico, would keep hiking interest rates. "Overall, headline inflation continues to edge down in Mexico, but core inflation remains sticky, which will continue to keep policymakers uneasy," said Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief Latin America economist, Andres Abadia. On a monthly basis, Mexico's headline inflation rose 0.56% while the core index was up by 0.34% in mid-November, the statistics agency said.

☆ Mexican headline inflation slows in early October, core index still a concern
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

An employee prepares dough to make tortillas at a tortilla stall in Ozumba de Alzate, State of Mexico, Mexico, May 24, 2022. Headline annual inflation in Latin America's second-largest economy inched down to 8.53% from 8.64% in the second half of September, also undershooting the consensus forecast of a Reuters poll for a rate of 8.63%. Compared with the previous two-week period, Mexican consumer prices rose by 0.44% in early October, the data showed. The core price index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.42% in early October, slightly above market expectations for 0.35%. Annual core inflation was 8.39%, above forecasts for 8.31%.

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