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And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.
Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) , which has long traded at a steep discount to its net asset value, rose 12.8% on Friday after BlackRock filed to launch a spot bitcoin ETF. GBTC 5D mountain The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has rallied more than bitcoin in recent days. The proposed BlackRock fund would also use Coinbase as a custodian for cryptocurrency, even though Coinbase was recently sued by the SEC . "If BlackRock is getting an ETF, I would want to own the BlackRock ETF. Wilshire Phoenix's wShares has a pending registration filing for its own bitcoin trust, but that product is not an ETF.
Persons: bitcoin, Bryan Armour, Armour, Coinbase, Gary Gensler, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Tschosik, GBTC, William Cai, Cai Organizations: BlackRock, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, North America, Morningstar, Ned, Ned Davis Research, NDR, wouldn't, Wilshire Locations: BlackRock, bitcoin, Wilshire Phoenix, GBTC
Here's the bear case for artificial intelligence
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Now that ChatGPT unleashed a firestorm of interest in artificial intelligence investing, it may be time to urge some calm for investors. AI YTD mountain AI software provider C3.ai has seen its stock more than doubled as investors look to hop on the artificial intelligence trend. Here's the bear case for artificial intelligence. That's about seven times more than the cost to run a typical Google search, which Nowak estimated to be $0.003, or not even half of one cent. Separately, the lack of proper citation from generative AI could mean future lawsuits for AI companies.
Tschosik says frenzied investing in obscure AI companies reminds him the 2001 dot-com boom and bust. The rally in AI stocks will probably run until about mid-year before stock prices return to earth, he said. This means some obscure artificial intelligence companies could easily be getting overvalued. In an experiment, Tschosik asked ChatGPT to list the best artificial intelligence stocks. With such a small pool, obscure AI stocks have been getting outsized attention from Wall Street investors, helping boost prices higher than they might otherwise go if the sector was more developed.
Crypto is off to a hot start in 2023, and an embattled bitcoin fund gives investors a tool to squeeze more out of this rally, according to Ned Davis Research. Pat Tschosik, a senior portfolio strategist at the firm, said in a note to clients that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could give investors a 100% return by midyear. Bitcoin has rallied more than 25% to start the year and is trading above $20,000 again. The discount means that the fund's shares are priced below the bitcoin holdings they represent. However, Tschosik pointed out that the NAV discount for the Grayscale fund has been closing in recent weeks after some activist investors got involved.
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