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Read previewUma Moriarity, a senior investment strategist at a real estate investment firm based outside of Philadelphia, is feeling better about deal-making in commercial real estate. A reduction in the Fed's benchmark rate would bring relief to the $22.5 trillion US commercial real estate market, which was shaken by a series of interest rate increases beginning in March 2022. AdvertisementThe increases diminished commercial property values, raised mortgage defaults, and triggered the sector's worst downturn since the financial crisis more than 15 years ago. "We're looking at a very good 2025 and beyond," Mark Rose, the CEO of the real estate services firm Avison Young, said. "Commercial property prices have increased over the past few months as bond yields have declined," Peter Rothemund, the co-head of strategic research at Green Street, said in the firm's recent property pricing report.
Persons: , Uma Moriarity, Moriarty, Mark Rose, Avison Young, Richard Barkham, We've, Fitch, CMBS, Peter Rothemund, Alan Todd, Todd, CLO Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, CenterSquare Investment Management, Green, Mortgage, Association, Bank of America, Bank of America Securities Locations: Philadelphia, Trepp
The threat from a looming wave of maturing commercial real estate loans has been well telegraphed to investors, but it's possible the metrics they are using to protect themselves from risk are flawed. Many investors have been avoiding bank stocks with high concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. Investors have been punishing regional bank stocks, especially when the bank's commercial real estate exposure tops more than 300% of its total equity . While the latter two have some exposure to New York City real estate, both banks benefit from strong management teams, he said. (New York real estate markets are navigating both falling office values as well as the dynamics of rent-regulated multifamily properties.)
Persons: Erika Najarian, Stephens, Matt Breese, Breese, Webster, Najarian, Piper Sandler, Scott Siefers, Siefers, generalists Organizations: Owners, KBW, Regional Banking, UBS, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Federal Reserve, Kansas City Fed, NBT Bancorp, Webster, National Bancorp, Micron Technology, Financial Group, Citizens Locations: New York City, York, . Connecticut, New, New York, Providence, R.I
Office loan modifications jump: Trepp report
  + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOffice loan modifications jump: Trepp reportCNBC's Diana Olick reports on the latest news from the commercial real estate sector.
Persons: Diana Olick
Instead a deal is now being negotiated to trim the size of the property's $240 million mortgage and potentially extend the loan at below-market interest rates in an attempt to revive the property's fortunes. The negotiations show that as hundreds of billions of dollars of commercial real estate debts come due or have already tumbled into default, deals are being arranged behind the scenes to try to stave off financial catastrophe. More borrowers and lenders have sought to buy timeThere is mounting evidence that such negotiations are taking place more widely. There have been concerns that trillions of dollars of upcoming commercial property debt maturities could inflict heavy losses that could weigh on investors and lenders across the property market and even cause systemic issues in the banking sector. The deal is part of a growing number of sales by some lenders to cut down their exposure to commercial real estate.
Persons: Realty, Michael Maturo, we'd, Maturo, Jack Terzi, Terzi, Jamie Woodwell, Stephen Buschbom, Trepp, Alan Todd, David Blumberg, Raymond Boyd, Blumberg, Robert Ivanhoe, Greenberg Traurig, Ivanhoe Organizations: New, Aareal Bank, Business, JTRE Holdings, Mortgage Bankers Association, Treasury Department, Bank of America, 601W Companies, Aon, Aon Center, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Lower Manhattan, Manhattan, New York City, Chicago
New York CNN —It’s no secret that commercial real estate (CRE) has become a source of stress for banks. Regional banks were on high alert recently after New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) reported steeper-than-expected future losses on commercial real estate loans. So why is it that the smaller, regional banks are so much more exposed to commercial real estate? Office real estate is among the bank’s smaller commercial real estate subcomponents. Robbins of Valley National Bank told CNN “we remain comfortable with our diverse and granular commercial real estate portfolio.”Office real estate is just one component of commercial real estate, albeit the most worrisome to banks and economists.
Persons: New York CNN —, Goldman Sachs, Fitch, Banks, BankRegData, Flagstar, , JPMorgan Chase, , Michael Brochstein, it’s, Ira Robbins, Robbins, CNN “, Carlos Barria, Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Flagstar Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, National Bank, JPMorgan, Getty, Valley National Bank, CNN, Fitch, FDIC, Reuters Locations: New York, Morristown , New Jersey
Read previewThe tremors rattling US commercial real estate are spreading to other countries and sectors, and threaten to escalate into a financial earthquake as refinancing deadlines loom. There are growing signs that commercial real estate is in serious trouble. AdvertisementProspective losses, refinancing woes, international contagion, and panic selling combine to create a bleak outlook for the commercial property sector. The catalyst for both the banking and commercial real estate drama is deceptively dry: rising interest rates. AdvertisementMoreover, "Undercover Billionaire" star and real estate tycoon Grant Cardone has hailed the ongoing correction as a rare chance for everyday people to buy "trophy real estate" from institutional owners.
Persons: , aren't, Barry Sternlicht, Pfandbriefbank, Warren Buffett, Ian Jacobs, Jacobs, Grant Cardone Organizations: Service, Business, Starwood Capital's, Bloomberg, European Central Bank, New York Community Bancorp, Investors, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Berkshire Hathaway, Ares Management Locations: Europe, Silicon, San Francisco, New York City, Manhattan, Los Angeles
‘Zombie Offices’ Spell Trouble for Some Banks
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Graceful art-deco buildings towering above Chicago’s key business district report occupancy rates as low as 17 percent. Office buildings remain stuck in a slow-burning crisis. Prices on even higher-quality office properties have tumbled by 35 percent from their early 2022 peak, based on data from the real estate analytics firm Green Street. Those forces have put the banks that hold a big chunk of America’s commercial real estate debt in the hot seat — and analysts and even regulators have said that the reckoning has yet to fully take hold. It is whether they will prove to be a slow bleed or a panic-inducing wave.
Organizations: Trepp, Washington , D.C, Employees Locations: Denver, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington ,
But while the last crisis was all about interest rate risk, this one revolves around the $20 trillion commercial real estate market. What’s happening: After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. The increase was driven partly by expected losses on commercial real estate loans, it said. “As losses from a [commercial real estate] loan portfolio accumulate, they can spill over into the broader financial system,” they wrote. “There’s some smaller and regional banks that have concentrated exposures in these areas that are challenged and we’re working with them,” he said.
Persons: It’s, Goldman Sachs, Anna Cooban, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Gary Gensler, , Chip Somodevilla, She’s, Powell, , ” McDonald’s, McDonald’s, Jordan Valinsky, Samantha Murphy Kelly, “ We’ve Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, US Regional Bank, Japan’s Aozora Bank, Deutsche Bank, Canadian Public Pension Investment Board, Boston Properties, US Securities and Exchange, Financial, Biden, Senate, CBS, Verizon, Old Telephone Service, landlines, UK, Consumers, CNN, California Public Utilities Commission Locations: New York, Manhattan, Boston, Washington ,, East, United States, California, France, California ”
Cocoa and orange juice futures have hit multi-decade highs as climate change and harsh weather takes their toll on crops in warmer climates. Here’s the latest in the commodities market:Orange juiceOrange juice futures have soared to their highest levels since the commodity began trading in 1966. The January contract for frozen concentrated orange juice is currently sitting around $3.95, up nearly 94% so far this year. The rally has led to a rise in speculative betting, leading some analysts to call orange juice futures the new GameStop. But “the eventual crash in the price of orange juice will be one for the record books,” he quipped.
Persons: Nicole, it’s, they’re, , Dave Reiter, It’s, Brent, David Morrison, stoking, That’s, WeWork, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Ermengarde Jabir, Alicia Wallace, , Ted Rossman Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, OJ, Sunshine State, Futures, GameStop, Reiter Capital Investments, Cocoa, West Texas Intermediate, “ Traders, Trade Nation . Energy, Wheat, Organisation for Economic Co, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed Locations: New York, Ukraine, Orange, US, Brazil, Mexico, Florida, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Ivory, Chicago, Southeast Asia, Europe, China, Russia, America, United States
WeWork’s bankruptcy will increase financial stress on commercial landlords that have rented large chunks of their office buildings to the co-working company. About $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks will come due in 2023, according to Trepp, a commercial real estate data provider. “This is another huge problem for the office market to contend with.”No single tenant can make or break the office market, he said. Around 42% of WeWork’s occupancies are in those three cities, according to CoStar, a commercial real estate data firm. Commercial real estate was hit hard by the pandemic, with fewer people returning to offices and spending money in downtown corridors.
Persons: WeWork, , Ermengarde Jabir, Goldman Sachs, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Peter Morgan, ” Alie Baumann, can’t, , ” Baumann, Van Nieuwerburgh Organizations: New, New York CNN, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Columbia Business School, Cities, New York City’s Locations: New York, America, Silicon, New York City, San Francisco, Boston, New York City . New York, NYC, New, United States, Columbia
Rite Aid's bankruptcy is likely to be a bigger boost to retailers such as Walmart and Costco than it will be to other drugstore chains, according to UBS. And as drugstore closures accelerate, dollar stores may be able to scoop up some of the abandoned locations. Discount chains Dollar Tree and Dollar General could also benefit from drugstore closures. Dollar stores, in particular, could also expand into store fronts once operated by drugstore chains. For dollar stores, the real advantage will be the real estate left behind.
Persons: Michael Lasser, it's, Lasser, Stephen Buschbom, Buschbom, Gordon Haskett, we've Organizations: Walmart, Costco, UBS, Rite Aid, CVS Health, Walgreens, CVS, Kroger, Target, KR, Wall Street, FactSet, Albertsons, HSBC Locations: U.S
REUTERS/Amr Alfiky/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 18(Reuters) - A number of U.S. banks saw continued pain in the third quarter on delinquent commercial real estate (CRE) loans in their portfolios, as stress in the sector persists. As a result, banks recorded continued provisions for credit losses and charge-offs from the previous quarter, driven by their non-performing (NPL), or delinquent, CRE loans. Borrowers have struggled to refinance their CRE loans as property values have declined and interest costs have risen. Some $20 billion of office commercial mortgage-backed securities, which bundle together individual loans, mature in 2023, according to real estate data provider Trepp. "While overall credit quality remains strong across our portfolio, the pressures we anticipated within the commercial real estate office sector have begun to materialize," PNC Chief Financial Officer Robert Reilly told analysts.
Persons: Amr Alfiky, Cole, that's, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Wells, Robert Reilly, Matt Tracy, Lananh Nguyen, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Florida Atlantic University, Bank of America, Trepp, Regulators, JPMorgan, Citigroup, PNC, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Dan McNamara's Polpo Capital is shorting office real estate, a risky move that could be lucrative. If you're looking for a doomsday vision of commercial real estate, you can find it there. "I don't think this is the 'Big Short,'" McNamara told me. This doesn't mean he doesn't have a game plan to make money off cultural shifts that could forever change the state of commercial real estate. Lucas Jackson/ReutersWhere he's going longOne risk of shorting real estate is that it's more susceptible to what's known in real-estate circles as "extend and pretend."
Persons: Dan McNamara's, McNamara, it's, It's, shorting, Carl Icahn, Jim Chanos, Brendan McDermid, Dan McNamara, McNamara's, Braver Stern, Dan McNamara McNamara's, suede loafers, McNamara didn't, Josh Nester, Polpo, he's, Morgan Stanley, Kamil Sadik, Lucas Jackson, Manus Clancy, You've, David Tepper's, Trepp's Clancy, Clancy, David Tepper Organizations: Central Park, New, Polpo, New York University, Columbia, Kynikos Associates, Enron, Asset Management, Reuters, UBS, Co, Societe Generale, Securitized Credit Partners, Credit Suisse, MP, Fund, Bloomberg, of America, Simon Property, Federal Locations: Manhattan, Sixth, Central, New York City, New York, MatlinPatterson, America, China, Italy, Westchester , New York, Tribeca, York, Westchester, Waterford , Connecticut, Baltimore, San Francisco
It's the costliest time to borrow money as interest rates now stand at 5.5%. Commercial real estate has been particularly damaged by the Fed's rate-hiking campaign. Defaults on commercial real estate loans have hit their highest levels since December 2021. The combination of workers unwilling to return to the office, coupled with the highest interest rates in 22 years, has spelled misery for the sector over the last 18 months. Commercial real estate has been particularly troubled by the Fed's aggressive hiking campaign, which has pushed up interest rates sharply since spring 2022.
Persons: Trepp, Kiran Raichura, we've, it's Organizations: Service, Capital Economics Locations: Wall, Silicon, delinquencies
The cost of starter homes has grown in every US metro but three since last year, Redfin said. San Francisco, Austin, and Phoenix starter home prices declined by 13.3%, 12.2%, and 9.7%, respectively. That doesn't mean that these starter homes are cheap, or the incomes needed to afford them are minuscule. Similar to Austin and San Francisco, Bokhari chops it up to the ebb and flow of supply and demand. While starter home prices decreased in San Francisco, Austin, and Phoenix, Redfin found that the typical starter home sold for a record $243,000 in June.
Persons: Redfin, they're, Sheharyar, Bokhari, Manus Clancy, Austin, Tesla Organizations: Phoenix, Service, Apple, Google, Oracle Locations: San Francisco, Austin, Wall, Silicon, Phoenix, Francisco, homebuyers, Redfin
Rising interest rates and remote work have put commercial real estate in the hot seat. With the help of Trepp, we've compiled a list of the top bank lenders for commercial real estate. The rising property losses are the result of rising interest rates, which have dramatically increased the cost of borrowing for highly leveraged commercial real estate investors. Office property owners are most at risk thanks to the remote-work phenomenon, which has been emptying out offices for three years now. Big names like Blackstone, Brookfield, and Starwood all have defaulted on properties and real estate securities in recent months.
Persons: we've, Wells, Chase, It's, Goldman Sachs, Newmark, Michael Santomassimo, Santomassimo, We've Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Starwood, Bank of America, Signature Bank, New York Community Bank, Mortgage Bankers Association, Wells, Trepp, Federal Reserve, SEC Locations: Blackstone, Brookfield
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo prepare for losses on office loans
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
July 14 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) said on Friday they set aside more money for expected losses from commercial real estate loans, in the latest sign that stress is building up in the sector. Wells Fargo reported higher losses in CRE due to its office loan portfolio. "While we haven't seen significant losses in our office portfolio to-date, we are reserving for the weakness that we expect to play out in the market over time," Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said. The bank, which acquired First Republic Bank in May, reported $1.1 billion in credit loss provisions driven by its office portfolio. Some $20 billion of office commercial mortgage-backed securities, which bundle together individual loans, mature in 2023, according to real estate data provider Trepp.
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Jeremy Barnum, Matt Tracy, Michelle Price, Lananh Nguyen, Nick Zieminski Organizations: JPMorgan, Republic Bank, U.S, Federal, Regulators, McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: Wells, CRE, U.S
In recent weeks, banks have stepped up efforts to prevent such losses, according to commercial real estate (CRE) analysts and industry data. The 23 largest U.S. banks held 20% of office and downtown retail CRE loans, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Small banks also have high exposure to CRE loans as a percentage of their assets. About $2.1 billion of office loans pooled in CMBS matured in May, almost double the total amount from January through April, for example. If borrowers agreed to loan extensions, some $10.8 billion of office loans maturing this year would be pushed to later years, Moody's said.
Persons: Shaishav Agarwal, Agarwal, Steve Jellinek, Moody's, Kevin Fagan, Fagan, ” Fagan, Eliasaf, , Banks, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Matt Tracy, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, Manhattan, Northwind, Thomson Locations: York
June 29 (Reuters) - U.S. banking regulators are asking lenders to work with credit-worthy borrowers that are facing stress in the commercial real estate market. Office loans have posed concerns for some U.S. lenders as property values decline and more borrowers default on their loans. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell earlier in the month said that U.S. commercial real estate lending remains under pressure but appears unlikely to threaten the broader financial system. Banks represent 54% of the overall $5.7 trillion commercial real estate market, with small lenders holding 70% of the loans in that market, according to Citigroup analysts. More than $1.4 trillion in U.S. commercial real estate loans will mature by 2027, with some $270 billion coming due this year, according to real estate data provider Trepp.
Persons: prudently, Jerome Powell, Banks, Jaiveer Singh, Maju Samuel Organizations: Governors, Federal Reserve System, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, National Credit Union Administration, Federal, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru
Days later, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield and coowner Brookfield gave the San Francisco City Centre back to their lenders after the exit of retailers left the mall just over half occupied. Whatever is going on in San Francisco, we are not interested in being part of that any longer." Fear of crime taints the cityCrime, or the fear of it, often creeps into conversations about San Francisco, too. "I ask, what's the driver" of the San Francisco office vacancies, Scavone told Insider. He continued: "Is it because downtown San Francisco is somewhat of a difficult commute from suburbs in Marin County or the East Bay?"
Persons: Manus Clancy, Trepp, , Brookfield, Clancy, Salesforce, Jeff Burg, he's, Burg, we're, Thomas Baltimore, hasn't, Elon Musk, Bob Lee, Frank Scavone, Scavone Organizations: Service, San Francisco, California, Hilton San Francisco, Square, Parc, San Francisco City Centre, San, Krea, Union, Census, LinkedIn, Park Hotels, Resorts, Westfield, ABC, San Francisco Travel Association, Elon, Foods, The New York Times, McKinsey & Co, downtown Locations: San Francisco, San, San Francisco Chronicle, Westfield, Real, Francisco, New York, cubicles, Boston , Chicago, Houston, Miami, San Francisco's Hayes Valley, Manhattan, Tenderloin, , downtown San Francisco, Marin County
Adam Neumann made motions in October to invest in WeWork, The New York Times reported. Options for the company have been whittled down, and now include bankruptcy, The New York Times reported on Monday. One opportunity batted away by Mathrani came from Adam Neumann, who was pushed out as WeWork's CEO in 2019, the Times reported. The meeting, which was potentially to discuss an investment with other investors of as much as $1 billion and a debt buyback, didn't happen, the Times reported. More recently, IWG, a company that also offers work spaces for remote and hybrid workers, made an offer to operate WeWork's spaces, according to the Times.
Persons: Adam Neumann, Sandeep Mathrani, IWG, , Mathrani, Neumann, JLL, WeWork, Trepp Organizations: The New York Times, Service, Times, WeWork Locations: WeWork, The
Frank Scavone, managing partner of Third Point Real Estate Strategies, said offices aren't dead. Frank Scavone, the managing partner of Third Point Real Estate Strategies, told Insider he's up for the challenge. But are there opportunities now for investors like Third Point Real Estate Strategies? What's going to happen with all the commercial real estate debt coming due in this higher interest rate environment? And let's not forget about the more than $300 billion in dry powder aimed at North American commercial real estate investment.
Persons: Frank Scavone, Scavone, Daniel Loeb's, , Trepp, CBRE, That's, San Francisco — Organizations: Service, Third Point, Hedge, CBRE, downtown, Employers, North Locations: San Francisco, downtown San Francisco, Marin County, York, multifamily, New York City
The owner of the Centre Square office complex in Philadelphia was unable to pay off a $368 million balloon mortgage against the property when it came due. Photo: jessica kourkounis/ReutersNearly $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgages are coming due over the next three years, according to data provider Trepp. Many of the commercial landlords on the hook for the loans are vulnerable to default in part because of the way their loans are structured.
Persons: jessica kourkounis Organizations: Reuters Locations: Philadelphia
Park Hotels & Resorts, an investment company, defaulted on a $725 million San Francisco hotel loan. The company's CEO plans to give up the properties, blaming remote work and "street conditions." This week, Park Hotels & Resorts, one of the largest publicly-traded hospitality investment companies with more than 29,000 rooms, chose to default on a $725 million loan secured by two flagship San Francisco hotels, the Hilton San Francisco Union Square and its Parc 55, about a block away. The "burden" of the properties was just too great, and it's not only because workers are abandoning the area, Thomas Baltimore, the Park Hotels CEO, said in a statement. San Francisco has been one of the large urban metros hit hardest due to remote work and the outright exits of large technology companies.
Persons: , it's, Thomas Baltimore, , Salesforce Organizations: Resorts, San, Service, Hotels, Hilton San Francisco, Square, Park Hotels, metros Locations: San Francisco, Francisco, Baltimore
Reports on the death of offices are "just wrong," JPMorgan's commercial real estate chief said. Office buildings are losing value as more people opt to work from home and companies need less space. No 'catastrophe' for the office market"You get the headline written that the office market is a catastrophe," Brooks said during a JPMorgan outlook webinar on June 1. In April, Blackstone announced the final close of its Blackstone Real Estate Partners X, the largest real estate fund ever raised, with $30.4 billion in capital commitments. Through its real estate investment trust, Blackstone has maintained some exposure to office buildings.
Persons: Blackstone, delinquencies, Alfred Brooks, Brooks, JLL, Manus Clancy, JPMorgan —, hasn't, They're Organizations: JPMorgan, Blackstone, Blackstone Real Estate Partners Locations: Brookfield, Blackstone, Los Angeles
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