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CD rates have been going down throughout 2024, but some local institutions still offer good rates. California Coast Credit Union offers a startling 9.50% APY on its 95th anniversary Celebration CD. In comparison, even the best CDs available nationwide mostly offer CD rates in the high 4% to 5% APY range. If you're interested in opening a CD with this credit union, you'll want to act fast since CD rates are likely to decline further in 2025. Most of these are short-term CDs since short-term CD rates are currently outperforming long-term CD rates.
Persons: it's, you'll, You'll, We've Organizations: California Coast Credit Union, Business, Service, California Coast Credit, Imperial, Social, U.S . Locations: California, San Diego, Riverside, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, San Bernardino
For Trump, this economy looks like a mirror image of the one he inherited in 2017. The soon-to-be Trump economy is facing down a trio of weak spots that could start to rear their heads pretty soon after Inauguration Day. Yes, the unemployment rate sits at just 4.1%, only a bit higher than its multidecade low. A variety of measures, however, suggest that the low headline unemployment rate overstates the degree of strength in the jobs market. In both cases, the unemployment rate was quite a bit higher, suggesting that the unemployment rate likely overstates the degree of health in the labor market.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, it's, Biden, Kamala Harris, Jerome Powell, They're, Scott Bessent, there's Organizations: Trump, Manufacturing, overinvestment, Mortgage, American, Plan, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Representatives, Biden, Energy, Team Trump, Consumer, Republican, Treasury Locations: Washington, Trump, Germany, China, American, steelmaking, Georgia, Arizona
Richard Stephen | Istock | Getty ImagesWhat are Social Security's trust funds? Social Security's trust funds prompt headlines each year when Social Security's trustees release their annual report on the program's financial outlook. Lee is not the first politician to question Social Security's trust fund structure. In his post on X, Lee said: "the government routinely raids" Social Security's trust fund. During a July 2023 Senate hearing on protecting Social Security, Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisconsin, describes the program's trust funds as a "four-drawer file."
Persons: Richard Stephen, Istock, Blahous, George W, Bush, Bonds, Susan Chapman, Luke Frazza, , Lee, Sen, Ron Johnson, Johnson, Stephen Goss, actuary, Andrew Biggs, Biggs, Nancy Altman, Altman, Jason Fichtner Organizations: Social, Research Service, Social Security Administration, Treasury, U.S ., Federal Investments, of Public, Afp, Getty, Social Security, American Enterprise Institute, Vanguard, Congressional Research Service, Center, U.S Locations: Parkersburg , West Virginia, Wisconsin, China
AdvertisementUS President-elect Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS nations to protect the US dollar's dominance. BRICS nations are exploring alternatives to the US dollar amid de-dollarization talks. The US dollar gained on the political uncertainty, with the Dollar Index up 0.6% at 3:10 a.m. AdvertisementIn October, Russian President Vladimir Putin opened a summit of BRICS nations by calling for an alternative payment system. AdvertisementLast week, Trump threatened 25% tariffs on imports from top trading partners Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on China.
Persons: Trump, dollarization, Donald Trump, Brad Setser, Setser, , Michael Pettis, Pettis, There's, isn't, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Justin Trudeau, Claudia Sheinbaum Organizations: United, US, Council, Foreign Relations, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Trump, Deutsche, Carnegie Endowment, International, Russia, ING, greenback, . Canadian, Reuters, Canadian Locations: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Russian, Canada, Mexico, Florida
Americans traveling to Europe next year may be in store for some bargains. “That’s a good thing for American tourists traveling abroad in Europe,” said Brendan McKenna, an international economist at Wells Fargo Economics. Now, euro parity is “back on the cards,” James Reilly, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note Nov. 11. For one, the U.S. economy has “held up a lot better than anyone has been expecting” over the past year or two, in stark contrast with Europe, Reilly said. Of course, there’s a risk Europe retaliates with its own tariffs or somehow penalizes Americans by raising certain consumer prices, such as airfares, Reilly said.
Persons: , , Brendan McKenna, Donald, ” James Reilly, Reilly, it’s, Trump, ” Reilly, McKenna, Wells Organizations: U.S ., U.S, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, European Union, Capital Economics, ICE, CNBC, Travelers, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, Treasury Locations: Europe, Wells Fargo, Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, China, Canada, Mexico, U.S, Trump
The currency most recently hit parity with the dollar in 2022, for the first time in two decades, before rebounding. watch nowNow, euro parity is "back on the cards," James Reilly, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note Nov. 11. Tariffs, interest rates and a strong economyTariffs and trade policy are major factors influencing euro-USD currency dynamics, economists said. James Reilly senior markets economist at Capital EconomicsTariffs on Europe could reduce demand for its exports, causing Europe's economy to weaken and the euro to lose value, economists said. Interest-rate differentials also have a large influence on relative currency movements, economists said.
Persons: Oscar Wong, James Reilly, Reilly, it's, Trump, McKenna, Wells Organizations: U.S ., European Union, Capital Economics, ICE, CNBC, Travelers, U.S, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, Treasury Locations: Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, China, Canada, Mexico, Europe, Wells Fargo, U.S, Trump
For the past year, comparing short-term CD rates vs. long-term CD rates showed that short-term CDs had better rates overall. Even the best long-term CD rates were starting to dip under the 4% mark, going into the 3.90% APY range. For example, Synchrony Bank's best CD rate is the Synchrony 9 Month CD, which offers 4.05% APY. Long-term CD rates are still lower than short-term CD rates overall. If the risk of incurring early withdrawal penalties in a long-term CD is too much, you can open a CD ladder with a long-term CD in it to mitigate that risk.
Persons: Synchrony, we're, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Kit Pulliam, They’ve, Kit Organizations: Federal Reserve, America First Credit, Credit Union, Dow Credit Union, Federal, Pulliam, Business, Tax, MSN, Vanderbilt University Locations: America
Hong Kong CNN —In the summer of 2018, when former President Donald Trump launched a trade war with Beijing, the Chinese economy was riding high. There was even talk it could soon overtake the United States as the world’s largest. But last year, Mexico overtook China as the top exporter of goods into the United States, according to the Commerce Department. China had held that perch for 20 years before its exports to the United States fell by 20% to $427 billion last year. Women walk at a fashion accessories store displaying a poster to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, China, on November 11, 2024.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , Dexter Roberts, Joe Biden, Matthews, Wang Shouwen, ” Andy Rothman, , Liza Tobin, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Beijing’s, don’t, Sean Callow, Callow, Andy Wong, Rothman, Xi Jinping, Larry Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Trump, Atlantic Council, Commerce Department, Matthews Asia, Treasury, CNN, PVH Corp, Bain & Company, ITC Markets, US, Peterson Institute, National Bureau of Statistics, Gross, Macquarie Bank Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, United States, Mexico, Lianyungang, US, Xinjiang, , Shanghai, New York,
Yet there is another force that could deter Trump from some of his most extreme instincts: the $50 trillion US stock market. A view of the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street on November 13 in New York City. A view of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street November 13, 2024, in New York City. Angela Weiss/AFP/Getty Images“There is zero chance that he will take personally any negative feedback from the stock market,” said Sonnenfeld. While the stock market initially celebrated the election results, the bond market did not.
Persons: Donald Trump, Gary Cohn, Trump, Jack Smith, CNN’s Kayla Tausche, , Isaac Boltansky, Angela Weiss, Jerome Powell, Trump’s, Xi Jinping, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Alexander Hamilton, Chip Somodevilla, ” Lori Calvasina, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump Republicans, Dow Jones, Federal, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Trump, CNN, Yale, Leadership, Treasury, Fed, U.S . Department of Treasury, RBC Capital Markets Locations: New York, China, New York City, Argentina, Washington, , Washington ,, recalibrate
AdvertisementTwo of the reported candidates for Treasury Secretary made their fortunes on Wall Street, including billionaire Apollo CEO Marc Rowan. Eligible federal appointees can defer capital gains taxes indefinitely when they sell stock or other assets in order to avoid a conflict of interest. As a top earner in New York, they would normally have to pay more than $3 million in capital gains taxes. The sum that would have been spent on capital gains taxes is now free to compound and grow. The IRS allows investors to defer capital gains taxes in other scenarios that are deemed outside their control.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Major Trump, Chris Wright, Marc Rowan, Bush, Goldman Sachs, Henry Paulson, George H.W, Bob Willens, You've, Scott Bessent, frontrunners, eyeing Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Morgan Stanley, Warsh, Jane Lauder, Rowan, Ed Renn of Withersworldwide, Penny Pritzker, Mark Parthemer, Willens, Renn Organizations: Commerce, of Energy, Treasury, Executives, Columbia Business School, Federal Reserve, Government, IRS Locations: George H.W . Bush, New York
Rowan and Warsh shake up Treasury raceFew of the unfilled positions in Donald Trump’s cabinet are as important as Treasury secretary. Allies of two candidates, Howard Lutnick, the transition co-chair, and Scott Bessent, a top economic adviser, publicly stumped for them this weekend. Musk threw his support behind Lutnick over the weekend, calling Bessent “business as usual,” an especially cutting criticism in the Trump camp. Loeb backed Bessent, arguing that choosing Lutnick might rattle investors, including in the $28 trillion market for Treasury bonds and notes. That said, Bessent is also being floated for positions such as chair of the White House’s National Economic Council.
Persons: Rowan, Warsh, Donald Trump’s, cloudier, Howard Lutnick, Scott Bessent, Marc Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Elon Musk, Dan Loeb, Musk, Bessent, Trump, Loeb Organizations: Times, Apollo Global Management, Fed, Treasury, White, Economic Council
Markets, in particular, crave certainty, and the clear path forward will allow companies to adjust their business and hiring plans. But stocks may also be reacting to Trump’s victory, in particular. Trump flipped several swing states from President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, and Republicans also took control of the Senate. So Trump’s victory, at least for now, appears to be keeping those rates somewhat higher. Other so-called Trump trades, including shares of his social media stock, Trump Media & Technology Group, surged Wednesday morning.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden’s, refocusing, Sam Stovall, Bitcoin, Crypto, Trump’s, Germany’s DAX, Australia’s, , Neil Newman, Hong, ” Daniel Murray Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Dow, Nasdaq, Republicans, Fed, JPMorgan, Democratic, CFRA Research, Gross, Treasury, Trump, Trump Media & Technology Group, CAC, Nikkei, Advisory, EFG Asset Management Locations: New York, Europe, Asia, China, Tokyo, Shanghai
Investors have been heavily buying two very different categories of assets ahead of next week's election: bonds and bitcoin . Bank of America credit strategist Yuri Seliger highlighted a shift toward bond buying among fund investors over the past week. A look at the list of most popular ETFs on FactSet over the past week shows that the demand for bonds has been broad across categories. Funds for investment grade corporate bonds, municipal bonds, mortgage backed securities, long-term Treasury bonds and high yield bonds are all in the top 20 funds by inflows over the past week. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has raked in more than $2 billion of inflows over the past week, according to FactSet.
Persons: Yuri Seliger, Seliger, outflows Organizations: Bank of, HG, HY, Bank of America, , JPMorgan
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones is raising alarms about the U.S. government's current fiscal deficit and the increased spending promised by both presidential candidates, saying the bond market may force the government's hand after the election in addressing it. "We are going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues," Jones told CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin on Tuesday. The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates. He said he plans to not own fixed income and will be betting against the longer-dated part of the bond market. Jones founded his hedge fund more than four decades ago and rose to prominence by correctly predicting the stock market crash of 1987.
Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, Jones, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Tudor Investment, Treasury Department, Wall Street, Trump Locations: United States
First, higher interest rates will reward savers, making it more expensive to take risks. And with interest rates so low, companies could suddenly load up on debt: From 2007 to 2017, global nonfinancial corporate debt doubled, to $66 trillion. Now, with the arrival of a new supercycle, money managers are once again being forced to adapt to a changing set of economic realities. Normally, when the Fed hikes interest rates rapidly, the stock market tanks. Rising interest rates will make loans more expensive, forcing businesses to make more-thoughtful decisions about debt.
Persons: Josh Hirt, Silas Myers, Myers, Hirt, you've, Joe Quinlan, they'll, Quinlan Organizations: Investors, Vanguard, Mar Vista Investments, Federal Reserve, Capital, . Venture, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Big Tech, Federal Trade Commission, Treasury, European Union, Aerospace Locations: Washington, China, Unemployment, Europe, America, Japan, United States
Chinese media reported that China could rack up $850 billion in debt to help revive its economy. China has vowed to roll out more fiscal stimulus, but key details were missing in a recent update. AdvertisementChina's fiscal stimulus efforts could include racking up almost $1 trillion in fresh debt over the next several years, according to local media. The money could be used as fiscal stimulus and to help "off-the-books debt" in local governments, the people added. One researcher recently estimated that the direct effects of China's latest stimulus package may not be felt until 2025, mainly because more fiscal stimulus needs to be unlocked before the policies can bolster the nation's economy.
Persons: , Lan Fo'an Organizations: Service, China's, Finance, CNBC, Bloomberg, CSI Locations: China, Beijing, Hong Kong
Gold prices flat as investors await fresh impetus
  + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices. Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices. "Gold prices have been surprisingly resilient, refusing to succumb to a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said. Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for "more caution" on interest rate cuts ahead. While, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said more rate reductions likely lie ahead for the U.S. central bank as the 2% inflation target looms into sight.
Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Fed, Fed Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, London Locations: China
Dollar at over two-month high, yen near 150 per dollar
  + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar was perched at an over two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday, spurred by wagers the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term, while the yen inched closer to the key 150 per dollar level. The U.S. dollar was perched at an over two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday, spurred by wagers the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term, while the yen inched closer to the key 150 per dollar level. The U.S. central bank kicked off its easing cycle with an aggressive 50 basis points at its last policy meeting in September. The dollar got a lift after Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday called for "more caution" on interest rate cuts ahead, citing recent economic data. That has cast doubts over when Japan's central bank will next tighten policy.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Chris Weston, Kazuo Ueda, Shigeru Ishiba, Tony Sycamore Organizations: U.S, Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, Traders, Boeing, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Caixin Global, Treasury, IG, China National, Congress Locations: U.S, Japan, China
Two women sit on the sidewalk of Qiansimen Jialing River Bridge, decorated with Chinese national flags, on October 3, 2024 in Chongqing, China. National Day Golden Week is a holiday in China commemorates the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. But he stopped short of announcing any new major stimulus plans, underwhelming investors and weakening the rally in the mainland Chinese markets. China will speed up special purpose bond issuance to local governments to support regional economic growth, the senior NDRC official said. Zheng said ultra-long special sovereign bonds, totaling 1 trillion yuan, have been fully deployed to fund local projects, and he vowed that China will continue to issue ultra-long special treasury bonds next year.
Persons: Zheng Shanjie, Zheng Organizations: National, Reform, Golden, CSI Locations: Chongqing, China, People's Republic of China, Shanghai
ExodusPoint led multimanager hedge funds with a 1.5% gain last month and is up 6.5% in 2024. Millennium and Schonfeld had strong returns; Citadel, Balyasny, and Walleye lagged behind. AdvertisementIn the last month before a new cash hurdle forces the firm to outperform for performance fees, ExodusPoint led the way among multistrategy hedge funds. The $11 billion manager was up 1.5% last month, bringing its 2024 numbers to 6.5%, a person close to Michael Gelband's fund said. The firm was down 0.2% last month, though it is still up 11.1% on the year, a person close to the firm said.
Persons: ExodusPoint, Schonfeld, , Michael Gelband's, Ken Griffin's Organizations: Citadel, Walleye, Service, Business Locations: Balyasny, York, Wellington, Miami
But now, as the dangers of a widening deficit and mounting debt grow, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are making little effort to address it. A budget deficit occurs when a country’s spending exceeds what it collects in revenue, primarily through taxes. The deficit is expected to widen under the status quo and could get even worse under proposals by both Harris and Trump, if enacted. During the Trump-Harris presidential debate earlier this month, the budget deficit was mentioned just twice, when Harris jabbed Trump for his proposals, which are expected to add considerably more to the deficit than hers. In the 2021 fiscal year, during which Trump left office, the country ran a $2.8 trillion deficit.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump, Jerome Powell, “ It’s, ” Powell, Harris jabbed Trump, , Maya MacGuineas, , Barack Obama, we’ve, I’ve, Obama, Mitt Romney, ” Obama, Romney, Hillary Clinton, Powell, MacGuineas, There’s, Kent Smetters, aren’t Trump, Smetters, aren’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, Trump, Republican, Democratic, Congressional, CNN, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Penn Wharton Budget, , Republicans, Democrats, Locations: New York, China, Japan
China needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said. He expects Beijing will likely ramp up fiscal stimulus due to weak growth, despite reluctance so far. "The market is forming a medium to long-term expectation on the U.S. growth rate, the inflation rate. As for Chinese government bonds, Ding said the firm has a "neutral" view and expects the Chinese yields to remain relatively low. He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus "to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy."
Persons: Larry Hu, That's, Edmund Goh, Yifei Ding, Ding, CF40, Pan Gongsheng, Haizhong Chang, Chang Organizations: China Resources, Getty, BEIJING, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, U.S, of Finance, PBOC, Ministry of Finance, Fitch Locations: China, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, abrdn, Beijing, U.S, Invesco
Traders instantly react to the data (sometimes wildly so), especially when the actual numbers are distinctly different than estimates. Thus, historically, XLU has been correlated with the direction of treasury bonds (which move in the opposite direction of bond yields). Here's a chart with XLU and the TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, which we're using since it's the most widely traded treasury bond ETF. From 2022 through 2023, XLU and TLT moved in the same direction more often than not. Another reason is simply that investors are aggressively seeking yield producing instruments, with the understanding that bond yields were destined to fall.
Persons: XLU, That's, TLT, We're Organizations: Federal Reserve, PPI, Utilities, Treasury Bond ETF, Bollinger, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: XLU
A "Buy Treasury bonds" poster is seen at a bank in Haian, East China's Jiangsu province, Aug 1, 2024. "We remain actively bullish," said a bond fund manager, undeterred by unprecedented government moves to cool the sizzling treasury market and arrest a plunge in yields, which move inversely to prices. Falling yields also complicate the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) efforts to stabilize the weakening yuan. Unlike the West, "China's financial markets, including the bond market, are subject to top-down regulation," said Ryan Yonk, economist with the American Institute for Economic Research. Late on Friday, the central bank said it will gradually increase the purchase and sale of treasury bonds in its open market operations.
Persons: Wang Hongfei, Ryan Yonk, Pan Gongsheng, Kiyong Seong, Tan Yiming Organizations: Bank of China's, American Institute for Economic Research, Societe Generale, Minsheng Securities Locations: Haian, East China's Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, China, Asia
Bank of America says the recent stock market sell-off is unlikely to be the start of a new bear market. AdvertisementThe stock market's recent sharp sell-off is unlikely to transform into a full-fledged bear market, according to Bank of America. But according to Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian, the tell-tale signs of a stock market peak have yet to materialize. AdvertisementFor perspective, Subramanian pointed to stock market history to highlight that pullbacks in the market are common. Instead of preparing for a prolonged market sell-off, Subramanian recommends investors go bargain hunting and focus on buying high quality stocks.
Persons: BofA, , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: of America, Credit, Service, Bank of America, Nasdaq, Conference, Senior
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