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☆ Republican and Democrat stock baskets from UBS heading into the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With polling forecasting a close race in the U.S. presidential election , UBS is eyeing two baskets of stocks to prepare for either outcome. Overall, UBS said stocks within its Trump administration beneficiaries basket indicate a win for the former president next week. Here is a look at some of the stocks UBS has placed in each grouping. Also, a Trump administration could roll back some actions that were favorable to utilities with exposure to renewables. Other sectors that can benefit from a Harris win include homebuilding as well as child care and employment agencies, Garthwaite added.

Persons: Andrew Garthwaite, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Garthwaite, Harris, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Trump Organizations: U.S, UBS, Institute of International Finance, Trump, Citigroup, Goldman, Citi, Nike, Democratic Locations: U.S, China, Goldman Sachs, Beijing

☆ Dollar holds on to 7-week highs as traders consider U.S. rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar clung to seven-week highs against major currencies on Tuesday as investors ponder the outlook for U.S. rates after a strong jobs report last week dashed bets for large rate cuts, while escalating tensions in Middle East dented risk sentiment. Traders have drastically shifted their monetary easing expectations from the Federal Reserve this year. That has kept the dollar on the front foot and surging to a multi-week high against the euro, sterling and the yen. The New Zealand dollar was 0.3% higher at $0.6144 ahead of the monetary policy decision on Wednesday. A majority of economists in a Reuters poll last week said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rate by 50 basis points.

Persons: Kieran Williams, Louis, Alberto Musalem, Shigeru Ishiba Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asia FX, InTouch, Reserve Bank of St, Treasury, Bank of, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Middle East, Asia, China, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Currency market steadies ahead of U.S. inflation test, Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Economists polled by Reuters expect headline consumer price inflation to ease to 0.1% from 0.3% last month, and core price inflation to remain steady on the month at 0.3%. Powell is likely to strike a relatively dovish tone at the press conference, however, given disappointing growth indicators since the last Fed meeting, Williams said. Japanese wholesale prices rose 2.4% in the year to May, Bank of Japan data showed on Wednesday, beating market forecasts for a 2% increase. The yen held steady at 157.16 per greenback after slipping to its lowest since June 3 at 157.40 the previous day. While Japan's central bank will likely discuss bond buying cuts to pre-empt yen selling pressure, dollar/volatility this week largely depend on Wednesday's U.S. CPI and Fed meeting, he added.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Kieran Williams, Powell, Williams, Emmanuel Macron's, Sterling, Wei Liang Chang, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Consumer, Fed, Reuters, Asia FX, InTouch, Bank of Japan, Bank of, DBS, CPI Locations: Czech, U.S, Asia, Bank of Japan

☆ Dollar steady, yen fragile after Fed comments dash rate cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The comments follow a slew of data in recent weeks that highlight the strength of U.S. economy along with persistent inflation. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was last at 106.33, just below the five month peak of 106.51 touched on Tuesday. I'm watching dollar strength and U.S. real yields very closely." On Wednesday, the yen was last at 154.65 per dollar, having touched the 34-year low of 154.79 in the previous session. The Australian dollar rose 0.12% to $0.641, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.22 to $0.589.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Powell's, " Powell, Ben Bennett, Kieran Williams, InTouch Capital's Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Traders, Investment Management, Asia FX, InTouch, CPI, New Zealand Locations: Washington, Asia, JPY, Japan

☆ Dollar steady as traders weigh economic data, yen fragile
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar was steady on Friday, on track for its fifth straight weekly gain, as investors take stock of economic data and firm expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June, while the yen traded at the psychologically key 150 per dollar level. But overall market expectations on the timing of the first Fed cut and magnitude of the cut will continue to drive volatility in FX markets." "We will likely soon contemplate the appropriate time for monetary policy to become less restrictive," Bostic said. Investor focus has been on comments from policymakers, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell due to give the Senate banking committee its biannual monetary policy update on March 7. The Australian dollar eased 0.20% to $0.651, while the New Zealand dollar is down 0.21% to $0.609.

Persons: Christopher Wong, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Jerome Powell, pare, Kieran Williams, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, PPI, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal, Asia FX, InTouch, Markets, New Zealand Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Singapore, U.S, Japan, Asia, Germany

☆ Dollar treads water ahead of U.S. GDP; ECB meeting in spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders have been consolidating positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. The report is, however, likely to show that the U.S. avoided a recession in 2023 and is expected to show moderating inflation in the last quarter, stoking expectations of rate cuts sometime in the first half of 2024. Other U.S. data this week includes the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data - on Friday. The move from the central bank comes after a Bloomberg report earlier this week of a rescue package worth $278 billion to help stabilise the battered stock markets. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar struggled to sustain a China-inspired rally earlier this week.

Persons: Kieran Williams, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Central Bank, Traders, U.S, Asia FX, InTouch, ECB, Wednesday, Bloomberg, Australian, New Zealand, Aussie, Bank of, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia, U.S, China

☆ Possible there will be no rate cuts this year, European Central Bank member says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The European Central Bank may defy market expectations and hold off on starting interest rate cuts during the whole of 2024, the institution's Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Monday. Asked about those who call for the first rate cut to take place as soon as April, Austria's central bank governor told CNBC, "I'm afraid, leaving Davos, those people will be deeply disappointed." Speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he added, "I cannot imagine that we'll talk about cuts yet, because we should not talk about it. "Unless we see a clear decline towards 2%, we won't be able to make any announcement at all when we're going to cut," Holzmann said. Correction: This story has been updated to reflect the name of CNBC anchor Steve Sedgwick.

Persons: Robert Holzmann, Steve Sedgwick, Holzmann, Yemen's Organizations: European Central Bank, CNBC, Economic, InTouch Capital Locations: Austria's, Davos, Switzerland, Israel

REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Russian rouble climbs to over 2-week high vs dollarMove comes after Putin reimposes currency controlsRouble had slumped to over 18-month low this weekAnalysts expect rouble to firm more in coming weeksOct 12 (Reuters) - Russia's rouble leapt against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after President Vladimir Putin ordered the mandatory sale of foreign currency revenues for some exporters to buttress the currency. The rouble collapsed to a record low in the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, before Moscow imposed similar capital controls that saw it recover to a seven-year high. Kogan warned, however, that by 2025-2026 businesses would form plans based on a rouble rate of 100-105. The central bank endorsed the measures, a shift in its stance, after it previously warned of the inefficiency of currency controls. "The rouble is even less tradable for foreign investors after Russia re-imposed some capital controls," Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.

Persons: Maxim Shemetov, Putin, Rouble, rouble, Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Kogan, Kogan, Gref, Andrei Belousov, Piotr Matys, Dmitry Polevoy, Brent, Alexander Marrow, Amruta, Robert Birsel, Mark Potter, Varun, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Russia's Higher, of Economics, TASS, Wednesday, Bank of Russia, FX, Touch, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, outflows, Locko, Bangalore

☆ Dollar rises ahead of Jackson Hole gathering
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"But the reaction to them was pretty muted overall, suggesting the Jackson Hole symposium is the main thing on the markets' mind," he said. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira rallied to a 2-month high against the dollar, up about 6% to 25.55 against the dollar after the Turkish central bank hiked the 1-week repo from 17.5% to a much-higher-than expected 25%. According to the median estimate in a Reuters poll, economists were expecting the policy rate to increase to 20%. Turkey's central bank embarked on a tightening cycle in June after President Tayyip Erdogan appointed former Wall Street banker Hafize Gaye Erkan as governor. The dollar was 0.7% higher against the yen , not far from the 9-month high 146.565 touched last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Stuart Cole, Powell, Cole, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Piotr Matys, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Joice Alves, Tom Westbrook, Ankur Banerjee, Angus MacSwan, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Jackson, Equiti, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, Boston Fed, U.S, Turkish, Wall Street, Touch Capital, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: London, Europe, Turkish, British

☆ Dollar rises ahead of Jackson Hole, Turkish lira rallies
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Thursday as investors awaited for U.S. job data ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium, while the Turkish lira rallied after a larger-than-expected central bank rate hike. Investors were cautious after softer-than expected data in Europe and the U.S. muddied the economic outlook sending the safe-haven dollar higher. "As the Jackson Hole symposium gets under way, market participants are looking for direction," said Isabel Albarran, Investment Officer at Close Brothers Asset Management. MORE COULD COMEElsewhere, the Turkish lira rallied, up 3% to 26.4040 against the dollar after the Turkish Central Bank hiked the 1-week repo from 17.5% to a much-larger-than expected 25%. Turkey's central bank embarked on a tightening cycle in June after President Tayyip Erdogan appointed former Wall Street banker Hafize Gaye Erkan as governor.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jackson, Jerome Powell, Isabel Albarran, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Piotr Matys, Moh Siong Sim, China's, Joice Alves, Tom Westbrook, Ankur Banerjee, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Turkish, U.S, Investors, Investment, Asset Management, Turkish Central Bank, Wall Street, Touch Capital, British, Bank of England, PMI, Singapore, Thomson Locations: Europe, London

☆ VIEW Turkey cements policy shift with super-sized rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A logo of Turkey's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. "We should recall that sudden changes in interest rates usually have a delayed effect. "This was also the steepest rate hike since the CBT management reshuffle after the elections in May. We think the strong rate hike meant to address market concerns that the CBT wanted to avoid significant rate hike." TIMOTHY ASH, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON"Really solid move by the CBRT (central bank) to hike policy rates arguably above expectations by 750bps to 25%."

Persons: Cagla, GRZEGORZ DROZDZ, TIMOTHY ASH, 750bps, Hatice Karahan, Hatice Gaye, PIOTR MATYS, Governor Erkan, Erdogan, LIAM PEACH, Erkan, OZKARDESKAYA, SWISSQUOTE Organizations: Turkey's Central, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Turkish, EMERGINGMARKETWATCH.COM, SOFIA, GENEVA

☆ Turkey shocks with big rate hike to 25% to cool raging inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Turkey’s central bank hiked its key interest rate by a surprisingly large 7.5 percentage points to 25% Thursday, signaling a new determination to address rebounding inflation as part of a broader policy U-turn. The poll, conducted last week, showed that interest rates were not expected to rise to 25% until the end of the year. The rate hike “sends a very strong signal that the [bank] is determined to rein in inflation and the initial market response is very positive,” said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets. Erdogan’s past drive to slash interest rates sparked a currency crisis in late 2021 and sent inflation above 85% last year. The currency is down about 68% in two years largely due to Erdogan’s previously outspoken opposition to high rates and influence over the central bank.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, ”, Piotr Matys, “, Erdogan, ” Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, — Osman Cevdet Akcay, Fatih Karahan, — Organizations: Analysts, Touch, Wall Street

The surprise move leaves the policy rate at its highest level since 2019, and sent the Turkish currency to its strongest level since mid-July. The bank has raised its one-week repo rate (TRINT=ECI) by 1,650 basis points since June. The lira had touched new all-time lows almost daily in recent weeks, including in the minutes before the policy decision. The central bank said that rising oil prices and a deterioration in inflation expectations suggests that inflation will end the year at the upper bound of its forecasts. The central bank has also selectively tightened credit.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Piotr Matys, Dado Ruvic, Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Osman Cevdet Akcay, Fatih Karahan, Hatice, Ezgi Erkoyun, Christina Fincher, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Analysts, Istanbul bourse, Touch, Turkey Lira, REUTERS, Wall Street, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Istanbul, Ankara

☆ Instant view: Russia's rouble weakens past 100 per US dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Russian rouble fell past the psychologically key 100 per U.S. dollar threshold for the first time since March last year on Monday. FILE PHOTO: Russian rouble and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration photo taken March 10, 2023. MICHAEL WANG, DEPUTY PORTFOLIO MANAGER, MIRABAUD ASSET MANAGEMENT“The rouble has been underperforming all this year, partly on lower oil revenues but also because of capital flight. “The rouble remains under the selling pressure in the current global environment dominated by concerns about China, which is Russia’s most important trading partner.”“The sharp fall in Russia’s current account surplus leaves the rouble more vulnerable to global sentiment. The CBR (Russian central bank) may have to raise interest rates further to cool down domestic demand and slow down imports to stabilize the rouble.”

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Vladimir Putin’s, MICHAEL WANG, TIMOTHY ASH, Nabiullina, ”, PIOTR MATYS Organizations: REUTERS, CBR Locations: Russian, Russia, POLAND, China, Russia’s

☆ Smaller-than-expected Turkey rate hike hits lira, bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan delivered a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike at her first rate meeting on Thursday, sending the lira and the country's dollar-denominated sovereign bonds sharply lower. The bank lifted its key rate 650 basis points to 15% compared to the median of 21% expected in a Reuters poll. "On the other hand they are promising more tightening ahead... so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt." "I am more worried about the medium-term outlook which is likely to see further lira depreciation. TIM ASH, EM SENIOR SOVEREIGN STRATEGIST, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT"Ouch - disappointing.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, PIOTR MATYS, Erkan, Erdogan, PETER KISLER, JON HARRISON, Amruta Khandekar, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Libby George, Karin Strohecker, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Thomson

The central bank said inflation will come under further pressure. Erdogan said last week he approved the steps Simsek would take with the central bank, suggesting he had given the green light to rate hikes. The central bank's key rate remains below deposit rates that reach up to 40% and real rates are still deeply negative. The central bank's net reserves fell to a record low of negative $5.7 billion last month. Authorities hope foreign investors and hard currency will return after a years-long exodus, potentially reducing the central bank's need to intervene to keep the lira stable.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Piotr Matys, Ezgi Erkoyun, Ali Kucukgocmen, Christina Fincher, Daren Butler Organizations: Reuters Graphics, Wall Street, InTouch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Ankara

☆ ANALYST VIEW Markets tumble as Turkey faces runoff election after Erdogan leads first round
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wave flags outside the AK Party headquarters, in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. DEBT: Five-year credit default swaps jumped over 100 basis points from Friday and dollar bonds fell more than 7 cents. STOCKS: Borsa Istanbul issued a market-wide circuit breaker after the benchmark index (.XU100) dropped 6.38% in pre-market trading and was last down 2.7%. PIOTR MATYS, SENIOR FOX ANALYST, IN TOUCH CAPITAL MARKETS, POLAND:"When/if President Erdogan is re-elected, the lira should be trading far more freely. CLEMENS GRAFE AND BASAK EDIZGIL, GOLDMAN SACHS, LONDON:"The (rates and CDS) market dynamics post the initial move will be dependent on the FX market.

☆ Turkey's lira slips to fresh record low, stocks tumble
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira hit a fresh record low and its stock markets tumbled on Monday as a major earthquake added to pressures from a strong dollar, geopolitical risks and surprise inflation readings out of the country. The lira slipped to 18.85 , in early trade before retracing most of its losses. More than 500 people were killed and thousands injured on Monday, after a major earthquake of magnitude 7.8 struck central Turkey and northwest Syria. But Turkey is feeling additional pressures. "A new window of FX volatility could be around the corner."

Government bonds, which typically perform well when there is a dash for safe havens, sold off under intense pressure. The dollar rose to an almost one-month high of 132.85 yen while the euro fell 0.64% to $1.0726. Chinese equities fell on Monday, while the offshore yuan touched a one-month low against the dollar. European Central Bank and Bank of England policymakers will also be making appearances. Gold edged higher, with investors banking on the precious metal's safe-haven appeal as concerns about an economic slowdown linger.

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