The "installed base" segment contributed about 25% of ASML's worldwide revenue in 2022. ING analyst Marc Hesselink calculated that the new Dutch rules could possibly affect products that account for 10% of ASML's worldwide sales. The Chinese may have a competitive advantage there, and ASML's sales in China could even grow modestly. Regardless, ASML will thrive outside China in the long run as chipmakers worldwide expand capacity, he said. "The demand for ASML machines is not going to be impacted, it's simply going to shift to a different region," he said.

---