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☆ Canada's unprecedented housing crisis could be a warning sign for the US
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Eliza Relman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The country is also almost certainly heading towards a recession — if it's not already in one — and the housing market is partly to blame, economists say. But immigration is just one of many factors at play — Canada's housing crisis far preceded the rise in immigration. Stillo believes Canada's housing bubble has been slowly "deflating" for the last 18 months, despite an upswing in prices earlier this year. But there isn't consensus on if and when Canada's housing bubble will burst — or even if there is a bubble. While housing prices have flattened recently as demand softens, he says they show no sign of significantly declining.

Persons: —, it's, Mosche Lander, haven't, Mike Moffat, Tony Stillo, Moffat, Lander, Stillo, they're Organizations: Service, Concordia University, Smart Prosperity, University of Ottawa, US, Oxford Economics, America, Bloomberg Locations: Canada, Canadian

☆ BoC likely done raising rates, to cut by mid-2024 say economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The risk of a revival in inflation, last measured at 3.8%, has led most to forecast now is not the time for the central bank to strongly signal they are done raising rates. Twenty-nine of 32 economists polled Oct. 13-20 expect no change to the central bank's 5.00% overnight rate (CABOCR=ECI), with the remaining three expecting a 25 basis point hike. While most are confident the central bank is done hiking, a significant minority of economists who answered an additional question, 8 of 18, said the risk of the BoC raising rates at least once more is "high". Still, a two-thirds majority, 20 of 30, see the BoC cutting its overnight rate at least once before end-June 2024. The distribution of where economists saw the overnight rate by end-June was split many ways.

Persons: Randall Bartlett, underscoring, Tony Stillo, Milounee Purohit, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of Canada, BoC, Desjardins, U.S . Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Canada

A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. Interest rate futures are pricing in no change next week, but are nearly split over whether rates rise once more. In the latest poll, eight of 34 economists expect one more rate rise to 5.25% by the end of this year, compared with only one in a July poll. "We expect the Bank will hold the overnight rate steady at 5.00% through mid-2024 as the full impact of past rate hikes helps push the economy into a moderate recession. A scenario in which Canadian interest rates stay higher for longer could increase pressure on highly-indebted households, with almost 20% of Canadian mortgages due for renewal next year.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Claire Fan, Tony Stillo, We're, Sal Guatieri, BMO's Guatieri, Milounee Purohit, Prerana Bhat, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, BoC, Canada, RBC, Oxford Economics, U.S . Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, Canadian

☆ Canada Offers Lesson in the Economic Toll of Climate Change
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Lydia Depillis | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

“We already think we’re teetering into a downturn, and this would just make things worse,” said Tony Stillo, director of economics for Canada at Oxford. The recent fires have left some lumber mills idle, for example, as workers have been evacuated. “It’s safe to say there’s going to be a supply crunch in Canada as we work through this,” Mr. Nighbor said. The tourism industry is also being hit, as the fires erupted just as operators were going into the crucial summer season — sometimes far from the fires. The road has since reopened, but only one lane at a time, and drivers need to wait up to an hour to get through.

Persons: ”, Tony Stillo, Derek Nighbor, Mr, Nighbor Organizations: Canada, Oxford, Forest Products Association of Canada, Business Locations: British Columbia, Canada, Tofino, Vancouver

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. (Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlook: )That was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. “In more ‘normal’ times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlookThat was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. "In more 'normal' times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

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