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AI, cyclical industries and regional banks: 3 Things to watch
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThree to watch in the US earning season, according to portfolio managerJohn Petrides of Tocqueville Asset Management talks about the three themes that he thinks will drive the current US earning season.
Persons: John Petrides Organizations: Tocqueville Asset Management Locations: Tocqueville
The S & P 500 is on track to finish March flat and end the first quarter up more than 3%. So if you had $10,000 to invest, where should you put it and how much should you allocate to each asset class? He also recommended getting exposure to some of the top holdings in the SPDR S & P 500 ETF , which tracks the S & P 500, as well as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF . He said he'd invest 40% into stocks: 15% in Asia, 15% in the U.S., and 10% in Europe. On the equities front, he told CNBC Pro that he would buy large-cap energy stocks.
A source with knowledge of the matter said that Swiss regulators are encouraging UBS and Credit Suisse to merge, but that both banks do not want to do so. Credit Suisse shares jumped 9% in after-market trading following the FT report. Credit Suisse and UBS declined to comment on the report. "Credit Suisse is a very special case," said Frédérique Carrier, head of investment strategy at RBC Wealth Management. The supervisors were told deposits were stable across the euro zone and exposure to Credit Suisse was immaterial, a source familiar with the meeting's content told Reuters.
[1/2] A person walks past a First Republic Bank branch in Midtown Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Mike SegarMarch 17 (Reuters) - Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) lost almost 33% on Friday, totaling a loss of around 80% in the last 10 sessions, despite a rescue package with $30 billion in deposits injected by large U.S. banks. Founded in 1985, First Republic had $212 billion in assets and $176.4 billion in deposits as of the end of last year, according to its annual report. The rescue package came less than a day after Swiss bank Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) clinched an emergency central bank loan of up to $54 billion to shore up its liquidity. The ratings agency had downgraded its outlook on the U.S. banking system to negative earlier this week.
[1/2] A person walks past a First Republic Bank branch in Midtown Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Mike SegarMarch 17 (Reuters) - Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) extended losses to 32% in afternoon trading on Friday after being briefly halted as $30 billion in deposits injected by large U.S. banks failed to quell investor worries about the beleaguered lender. First Republic suspended its dividend and disclosed it has $34 billion in cash excluding the new deposit injection. Founded in 1985, First Republic had $212 billion in assets and $176.4 billion in deposits as of the end of last year, according to its annual report. The ratings agency had downgraded its outlook on the U.S. banking system to negative earlier this week.
Credit Suisse declined to comment on the banks' actions. MARKET TROUBLES LINGERBanking stocks globally have been battered since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, raising questions about other weaknesses in the wider financial system. A view of the Park Avenue location of the First Republic Bank, in New York City, U.S., March 10, 2023. The supervisors were told deposits were stable across the euro zone and exposure to Credit Suisse was immaterial, a source familiar with the meeting's content told Reuters. "Japan's financial system remains stable as a whole," Kishida told a news briefing.
March 17 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank shares came under renewed pressure on Friday despite multibillion-dollar support deals, while a source said European Central Bank supervisors see no contagion for euro zone banks from the turmoil. With investor confidence far from restored, analysts, investors and bankers think the loan facility has only bought Credit Suisse some time to work out what to do next. Meanwhile, U.S. regional bank shares, including PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), also opened sharply lower, with First Republic down around 25%. But the supervisors were told deposits were stable across the euro zone and exposure to Credit Suisse was immaterial, a source familiar with the meeting's content told Reuters. The ECB pressed forward with a 50 basis-point rate hike, arguing that euro zone banks were in good shape and that if anything, higher rates should bolster their margins.
[1/2] A person walks past a First Republic Bank branch in Midtown Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Mike SegarMarch 17 (Reuters) - Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) tumbled 17% in early trading on Friday after being briefly halted as $30 billion in deposits injected by large U.S. banks failed to quell investor worries about the beleaguered lender. Founded in 1985, First Republic had $212 billion in assets and $176.4 billion in deposits as of the end of last year, according to its annual report. "Judging by the market's reaction, it appears that maybe the damage has been done to the brand reputation of First Republic. First Republic said it borrowed up to $109 billion from the U.S. Federal Reserve between March 10 and March 15.
Investors will look to corporate earnings and forward guidance during this peak reporting season, with tech firms set to report this week. He said the three themes his firm is going for now are: income, energy and small-cap stocks. Energy Petrides highlighted one "interesting play" in the energy market — Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), which trade like stocks but are really a partnership interest. Small caps Petrides said small-cap stocks have been "one of the best-performing" asset classes on average since the 1950s. Some small-cap stocks can be described as value stocks, which are shares that appear to trade at a lower price relative to their fundamentals.
The latest threat to stocks now isn't any macro risk — it's rising 2-year Treasury yields, according to some fund managers and strategists. Short-term, relatively risk-free Treasury bonds and funds are back in the spotlight as the yield on the 2-year Treasury continues to surge. Meanwhile, U.S.-listed short-term Treasury ETFs have attracted $7 billion of inflows so far in September — six times the volume of inflows last month, BlackRock said. Here's what analysts say about how to allocate your portfolio right now. This sees investors put 60% of their portfolio in stocks, and 40% bonds.
But for 2022, Tocqueville Asset Management's John Petrides sees the fixed income market as the safe haven. "It's not often we think of the high-yield bond market as the safety place," the portfolio manager told CNBC's "Trading Nation." Inside Edge Capital Management founder Todd Gordon is more cautious on the fixed income trade. Instead, Gordon suggested an options strategy to make up for lack of yield in the fixed income space. Gordon said it will allow investors to participate in the market upside with some guardrails for safety.
"We're seeing growth come ripping back" after roughly a year of investors opting for value, Gordon said. Communications stocks have lagged the rest of the S&P 500 , but a return to growth could make them 2022's "sneaky catch-up plays," Inside Edge Capital Management founder Todd Gordon told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday. This quarter's worst-performing sector could make a comeback in the new year, one trader says. "I think one of the sneaky catch-up plays ... is going to be communications next year. His 2022 strategy took the other side of the low interest rate trade, favoring dividend plays, particularly real estate investment trusts involved in industrial and medical office properties.
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