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American policy is at a crossroads, but that won’t necessarily translate to a turning point in peace negotiations, analysts say. That’s because nothing suggests Russia is ready to come to the table, regardless of who ends up in the White House. The scope of the war is also too large for a simple negotiation between Moscow and Kyiv, experts say. Attritional war playing into Putin’s handsUkraine is already outmanned, and Putin appears ready to accept a high number of casualties. European nations are scrambling to increase ammunition production for Ukraine to prevent backsliding, in the event that US support drops off.

Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky’s, ”, Kamala Harris, Biden, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Trump, Thomas Graham, Putin, ” Graham, … Putin, John Lough, what’s, ” Lough, Oleh Shiryaev, Ivan Antypenko, that’s, “, Vitaliy Milovidov, don’t, Volodymyr Zelensky, Micah Garen, Harris, Zelensky Organizations: CNN, Council, Foreign Relations, NATO, West, Eurasia Program, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Separate Assault, Reuters, Security Service, Ukraine’s, National Security Council, 15th Brigade National Guard, Russian, Nordic Locations: Russia, Kyiv, United States, Ukraine, Russian, Hungary, Slovakia, Moscow, London, China, Beijing, Kursk, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Iceland, ” Chatham, Bucha

☆ A longtime Russian ally says it's frozen its participation in Putin's NATO 'at all levels' after a year of snubs
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-02 | by ( Thibault Spirlet | Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Armenia has frozen its participation in the CSTO at all levels," he said, according to a translation by US think tank the Institute for the Study of War. AdvertisementHowever, he added that Armenia may "see the need to make another decision" in the future, per the ISW. Pashinyan announced his decision to leave the CSTO — a military alliance made up of Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan — in February. Tensions have risen between Russia and Armenia since Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which Pashinyan has repeatedly refused to support. Other CSTO members have also snubbed Russia since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin's, Nikol Pashinyan, Pashinyan, Putin, Dmitry Peskov, berate Putin, Thomas Graham Organizations: Service, Collective Security, Organization, NATO, Business, for, Tajikistan —, Kremlin, Yale Locations: Russian, Armenia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pashinyan, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia's, East

☆ Russian ally ditching Putin's rival to NATO damages the image Putin wants to project of himself, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewArmenia's announcement that it's going to leave a Russia-led alliance that was set up to rival NATO is a blow to the image Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to project, experts told Business Insider. In fact, experts say it's the opposite of what Putin hoped to achieve with the alliance. But leading it is still important to Putin as, in Putin's mind, "great powers lead alliances and organizations." Armenia snubbing RussiaPashinyan's announcement came after months of snubs against Putin, and criticism of the CSTO in general.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin, Nikol Pashinyan, Putin, Davis Ellison, Alexander Cooley, Thomas Graham, snubs, Pashinyan, Graham, Armenia doesn't Organizations: Service, NATO, Collective Security, Organization, Business, The Hague, Strategic Studies, Columbia University, Yale, Armenia's, Reuters, Getty Locations: Russia, Armenia, Kremlin, Soviet Union, Moscow, Soviet, East, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Washington, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan

☆ Merely winning has never been enough for Putin — and this year's presidential election is no different
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's little doubt Putin, 71, will win, even as the Ukraine war drags into its third year, analysts say. After all, his challengers — who were approved to run by the country's election commission — are far from his level of clout and influence. But for Putin, merely winning has never been enough — and 2024 looks no different. Putin needs to show that Russians really want him to leadFor Putin, it's not about winning. As Thomas Graham, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote on March 7, "Just winning has never been enough for Putin.

Persons: —, There's, Putin, it's, It's, Thomas Graham, David Szakonyi, Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, they're, Vladimir Putin Organizations: Service, Business, International Monetary Fund, Council, Foreign Relations, George Washington University, Profit, Central Bank of Russia, Putin Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Policymaking, Russia, Polish

☆ China's economic partnership with Russia is so lopsided that Putin needs the help of the US — but he'd never admit that, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's "no limits" partnership with China is hurting its own economy, one think tank says. The think tank says the relationship is so imbalanced that Russia may need the US's help — though Putin would never admit it. But the think tank argues that much of the partnership has been more to Beijing's benefit than it has been to Moscow. Though China is one of Russia's only reliable trading partners at the moment, the nation has neglected to make major investments in Russia, Graham noted. And Russia's economy now appears to be so dependent on China, that the nation needs the help of the US to counterbalance it, Graham said.

Persons: —, Putin, Thomas Graham, Graham, Xi Jingping Organizations: Service, Foreign Relations, Kremlin, Foreign Affairs, Russia, Administration of Customs, Central Intelligence Agency, US Defense Intelligence Agency, Economic Forum Locations: China, Russia, Beijing, Moscow, York, Ukraine, Asia, India, Western, United States

☆ China is eroding Russia's influence over old allies as the alliance it leads crumbles over Ukraine, expert says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Russian influence is waning despite formal alliances and the old ties of the Soviet Union. It is also home to most members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO): Russian President Vladimir Putin's equivalent of NATO. Russia's influence on them is also being weakened by more countries competing for their attention, Graham said. AdvertisementAdvertisementHe said that "Russia's operation in Ukraine is undermining, eroding its ability to maintain its influence across the former Soviet space." "You're seeing the slow erosion of Russian influence."

Persons: Thomas Graham, Vladimir Putin's, Graham, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Stanislav Zas, Nikol Pashinyan, Alexander Lukashenko, Kassym, Tokayev, Sadyr Japarov, Emomali Rakhmon, Anton Novoderezhkin Organizations: Service, Yale, Collective Security, Organization, NATO, Moscow REUTERS, Russia, Armenian, Kazakh, Kremlin, Sputnik, REUTERS, Central, AFPTV, Getty Locations: Central Asia, Russia, Soviet Union, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, China, Turkey, East, Caucasus, Moscow, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Central, Europe, Iran, Russian, Belarusian, Bakhmut, AFP, Azerbaijan, Soviet

☆ A close Russian ally snubbed Putin by announcing military exercises with the US — the latest in a series of embarrassments for the president
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Armenia will host a joint military exercise with the US later this month. The country is a longtime Russian ally but has repeatedly expressed its frustration with it. This includes threatening to leave the Russia-led CSTO and refusing to host its military drills. A US military spokesperson told Reuters that 85 US soldiers and 175 Armenian soldiers will take part in the exercise. Armenia also hosts a Russian military base.

Persons: CSTO, Vladimir Putin, didn't, Nikol, Pashinyan, Putin, Thomas Graham, Jaroslava Barbieri, Dmitry Peskov Organizations: Service, Reuters, NATO, Soviet, Yale, University of Birmingham Locations: Armenia, Russian, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Soviet Union, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, East, tatters .

☆ Putin wanted his own version of NATO. Instead he has a failing alliance that has only made him look weaker since the invasion of Ukraine.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

Putin wanted his own version of NATOPutin has long viewed NATO as a threat to Russia, even citing it as an excuse for his invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also said that CSTO members states' desires for closer ties with the US weren't new. Russian President Vladimir Putin in Armenia in November 2022. Graham also said the invasion of Ukraine meant Putin is less and less able to deal with CSTO members' complaints.

Persons: it's, Putin, Vladimir Putin, Thomas Graham, NATO Putin, Alexander Cooley, Cooley, Armenia's, Nikol Pashinyan, KAREN MINASYAN, Putin's, isn't Putin, Ilya PITALEV, ILYA PITALEV, Getty Images Graham, Russia's, ANATOLII STEPANOV, you've, Graham, CSTO, Sadyr Japarov, Stanislav Zas, Alexander Lukashenko, Kassym, Tokayev, AP Cooley, – Putin, Vladimir Voronin, Nikol, They've, Hayk Organizations: NATO, Service, Soviet Union, Security, Organization, Yale, Columbia University, REUTERS, Getty Images, SPUTNIK, AFP, CSTO, Kazakh, Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, AP, Collective Security, Vladimir Voronin NATO, Putin, Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service, UN, US, EU, Armenian Locations: Russia, Russian, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Soviet, East, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, The Hague, Netherlands, Yerevan, AFP, Soviet Union, Moscow, Asia, Ukrainian, Oskol, Ukraine's Kharkiv, NATO, USSR, Dushanbe, tatters, Photolure, China, Turkey, United States

☆ Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Experts break down Putin's motivations and excuses for launching his war.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.Insider spoke to three experts about why it happened, and the motives behind President Putin's move. AP Photo/Evgeniy MaloletkaPutin blamed the WestTaylor said the invasion of Ukraine reflects Putin's "grievances that have been brewing for a long time." For Putin, "Russia has a right to rule Ukraine. At the start of the invasion, Putin blamed NATO's expansion into eastern Europe for forcing his hand, echoing a criticism he has made for years. Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with war correspondents in Moscow, June 13, 2023.

Persons: Putin's, —, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Felipe Dana, it's, George W, Bush, Stephen Hall, Hall, Alexander Ermochenko, Brian Taylor, Thomas Graham, Graham, Evgeniy Maloletka Putin, West Taylor, Taylor, Lithuania — Taylor, NATO didn't, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Omar Marques, They've, Russia's, Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, Stalin, Zelenskyy, Viktor Medvedchuk, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden, GAVRIIL Organizations: Service, AP, University of Bath, Kyiv, REUTERS, Slavic, of, West, Syracuse University, Yale, NATO, NATO doesn't, Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, Getty, Nazis, Nazism, Putin, SPUTNIK Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Bucha, Kyiv, Russian Ukraine, Soviet Union, USSR, Russian, Moscow, Luhansk, Belarus, Asia, of Russia, East, Avdiivka, Europe, Ryazan, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Zelenskyy, Afghanistan, Germany

☆ Analysis: The 'mayfly' mutiny evaporates, but Russia is a changed place
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Tim Lister | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

CNN —The weekend’s events in Russia seem an almost surreal interruption to the long slog of conflict unfolding in neighboring Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s challenge to the Russian state erupted and receded in the space of 24 hours, but the consequences of his short-lived mutiny may reverberate for much longer. Prigozhin’s Wagner forces, for all his boasting, were never going to be a match for the Russian security forces. And yet, the saga was humiliating to the Russian military and at least embarrassing to the Kremlin. One Ukrainian military officer was provocatively shown on social media eating popcorn as he watched events in Russia unfold.

Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin’s, Prigozhin’s Wagner, Prigozhin’s bluster, Sergei Shoigu, Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Gorbachev –, Putin, Mikhailo Podolyak, It’s, ”, Pavel Zarubin, Russia “, Thomas Graham, Prigozhin’s, Wagner, ” Putin, Staff Valery Gerasimov, CFR’s Graham, Antony Blinken, ” Graham, Russia’s, Phillips O’Brien, “, Hanna Notte, ” Notte, there’s, STRINGER, “ Prigozhin, Stalin, Stephen Kotkin, Kremlin “, Kotkin Organizations: CNN, Southern Military, Kyiv, Council, Foreign Relations, Defense Ministry, Staff, ’, Moscow –, University of St, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Twitter, Getty Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Prigozhin, Rostov, Russian, Voronezh, Ukrainian, Africa, Syria, Bakhmut, St, Petersburg, Andrews, Scotland, West, AFP, Kremlin

☆ 9 startups bringing AI tech to Netflix, Lucasfilm, Marvel, and more Hollywood studios — and attracting millions in VC funding
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Lucia Moses | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

VCs and private equity have poured millions into startups bringing AI tech to film and TV production. AI startups disrupting Hollywood include MARZ and Wonder Dynamics, cofounded by "X Men" star Tye Sheridan. Investment in AI startups for entertainment is "blowing up right now," said Michael Blank, head of consumer investing at CAA. There are already AI tools that can write full scripts. Vendors and investors told Insider that over time, AI tools will change jobs, not replace them.

☆ These 8 startups are bringing AI technology to Netflix, Lucasfilm, Marvel Studios, and more — and attracting millions in VC funding
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Lucia Moses | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

VCs and private equity have poured millions into AI startups seeking to disrupt film and TV production. Startups making waves in Hollywood AI include MARZ and Deep Voodoo, founded by the creators of "South Park." Generative AI has spawned a raft of tools with real-life applications to Hollywood — and VCs are getting in on the action. There are already AI tools that can write full scripts. Vendors and investors told Insider that over time, AI tools will change jobs, not replace them.

☆ Corrections & Amplifications
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-18 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Thomas Graham is a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. A Review article on Saturday about the war in Ukraine incorrectly identified him by his previous affiliation as managing director of Kissinger Associates, Inc. Readers can alert The Wall Street Journal to any errors in news articles by emailing wsjcontact@wsj.com or by calling 888-410-2667. Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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