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Yun: Reducing spending brings down interest rates
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYun: Reducing spending brings down interest ratesLawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, explains that reducing the national deficit could help lower mortgage rates by impacting bond yields. Although the Fed has cut rates, 10-year yields remain high due to budget deficits.
Persons: Lawrence Yun Organizations: Yun, National Association of Realtors
AdvertisementAyriel Von Schert, 30, wanted to buy a home and didn't want to wait until she was married. Von Schert, a real-estate agent, said she's worked with other single women who have also bought homes alone. Recently, I've helped a couple of other single women buy their own homes. AdvertisementI also don't think it's a good idea to commit to anything permanent with someone you're not in a permanent relationship with. AdvertisementI don't think he minds, because we no longer have a landlord telling us what we can or can't do.
Persons: Von Schert, she's, Ayriel Von Schert, I've, we're, wasn't, it's, I'm Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Mesa , Arizona —, Phoenix, Homeowners Association Locations: Mesa , Arizona, Phoenix
Don't expect 'huge swings' on mortgage ratesElection uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said. Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a "bumpy" or "volatile" path over the next year. "Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025," she said. For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Jessica Lautz, Lautz, Jerome Powell, Robert Dietz, Jessica Lautz Jessica Lautz, Jeff Ostrowski, Jacob Channel Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Treasury, Trump, Federal, CNBC Locations: U.S
Manufactured housing, sometimes called mobile homes, are homes made in a factory rather than constructed on site, and they have been surging in popularity this year amid America’s housing crisis. Instead, they’re turning to the internet for lower-cost options, whether a pop-up foldable house kit, a tiny home or a traditional mobile home. Amazon is not the first major retailer to sell manufactured homes. More than 100 years ago, American retailer Sears, Roebuck and Co began selling kit homes from its catalog, with some for under $1,000. A 2023 Urban Institute paper argued that mobile homes were “uniquely vulnerable” to natural disasters compared to other housing.
Persons: Julie Johnson, homeownership, SSRS, George Rose, Donald Trump, Sears, Marc Norman, ” Norman, Katie Currid, , Norman, Johnson, ” Johnson, Rebecca Blackwell, Johnson’s, Julie Johnson's, Patrick Harker, ” Harker, , ” CNN’s Chris Isidore Organizations: CNN, Facebook, National Association of Realtors, Getty, Census Bureau, Sears, Roebuck, Schack Institute of Real, New York University, Daily News, Urban, Hurricane, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Locations: North Carolina, America, Boulder City, Boulder City , Nevada, Staunton , Virginia, Staunton, Mobile, Hurricane Milton, Englewood , Florida
President-elect Donald Trump wants to address housing affordability in the U.S. by fomenting the construction of new homes. "We're going to open up tracks of federal land for housing construction," Trump said during an Aug. 15 news conference. While building more homes is the simpler answer to address the housing issue in the country, other promises Trump has made could deter affordability efforts, experts say. He also claimed that he would pull down mortgage rates back to pandemic-era lows, although presidents do not control mortgage rates, experts say. Here's how some of Trump's policies could affect the housing market during his administration, according to experts:
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jim Tobin, it's, Jacob Channel Organizations: National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders, Finance, Federal Reserve, Social Security, LendingTree Locations: U.S
Many Americans have been holding back from jumping into the housing market in the hopes that mortgage rates will decline. The average 30-year mortgage rate has been above 6% for two years — and is likely to stay above that level for the foreseeable future, experts say. “Sixes are the new normal,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a mortgage listing services group, referring to 6% mortgage rates. It’s really not going to be impacting mortgage rates at all.”Mortgage rates work differently. When demand for those increases, mortgage rates tend to fall.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, , Lisa Sturtevant, Brian Rehling, Trump, Mike Fratantoni, ” Fratantoni, Helene, ” Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Sturtevant, “ It’s Organizations: Federal, Bright MLS, Federal Reserve, Wells, Investment Institute, , U.S, Mortgage, Association, , National Association of Realtors, Pantheon, NBC
"The expectation among bond traders coming into the election was that rates would move higher in the event of a Trump victory and especially a red sweep. "The builder stocks are highly sensitive to mortgage rates and mortgage rate expectations. Big builders have been buying down mortgage rates for their customers, but that has been cutting into their margins. Mortgage rates don't follow the Fed, but do react to the central bank's thinking on the economy. Stronger-than-expected economic reports in September and October caused bond yields, and consequently mortgage rates, to move higher.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matthew Graham, Horton, PulteGroup, Lowe's, John Burns, Trump, Carl Harris, Graham Organizations: Mortgage News, Trump, . Housing, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors Locations: U.S, D.R
'The biggest issue of housing today'The housing shortage in the U.S. is "the biggest issue of housing today," said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow. As of mid-2023, there's a housing shortage of 4 million homes, according to the NAR. Rent prices increased faster than tenants' wages during the pandemic. "We're seeing renters staying renters for longer because affordability has been so squeezed," he said. High rent prices not only affect your ability to save money to buy a home, it can affect your ability to pay down any existing debt, Lautz said.
Persons: homebuyer, Jessica Lautz, Orphe Divounguy, Jonathan Scott, Scott, Selma Hepp, Divounguy, Lautz Organizations: National Association of Realtors, NAR, HGTV, CNBC Locations: U.S
Like first-time buyers, the typical repeat buyer has gotten older, with their median age increasing to 61 years from 58 last year. Repeat buyers’ median household income rose to $114,300 from $111,700 in the last year, as well, according to the NAR. First-time homebuyers may have trouble competing with repeat buyers, who could possibly have sold an existing home to purchase a new one. Repeat buyers were able to enter the housing market with much larger down payments (median 23%) than first-time homebuyers (median 9%). Thirty-one percent of repeat buyers paid all cash for their homes.
Persons: homebuyers, homebuyer, , Jessica Lautz, ” Lautz Organizations: CNN, National Association of Realtors, NAR Locations: America
The typical age of a first-time homebuyer in the US has reached an all-time high: 38. First-time buyers make up 24% of all buyers, the lowest level since NAR started tracking in 1981. The changing characteristics of the typical first-time homebuyer in America are proof of the strain. The typical first-time buyer now has a median age of 38 — up from 35 in 2023. The typical first-time homebuyer is richer than ever, too.
Persons: It's, , — Gen Zers, millennials, haven't, Jorge Argota, Argota, He's Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Service, NAR Locations: America, Miami, Florida
The average age of homebuyers in the U.S. has risen by six years since July 2023 — another sign that younger Americans are being priced out of the market due to escalating ownership costs. The average age of homebuyers is now 56, up from 49 in 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors' annual state-of-the-market report released Monday. That's a historic high, up from an average age in the low-to-mid 40s in the early 2010s. The median age of first-time buyers also rose from 35 to 38, while the share of first-timers dropped from 32% to 24% of all buyers for the year ending July 2024. The median U.S. home price is now $435,000, per NAR — up 39% since 2020 — while the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has more than doubled to over 6% in that time.
Persons: I've, Bob Driscoll Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Rockland Trust Locations: U.S, Massachusetts, Rockland
Home transaction activity is up since mortgage rates are down from their peak. The US housing market perked up after mortgage rates plunged from their mid-summer peak through mid-September, even though they've experienced a remarkable resurgence since then. Pending home sales rose 7.4% in September, which was the largest leap since the spring, a late-October report from the National Association of Realtors found. "Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady." 7 affordable cities with home inventoryEven though homeowners have been reluctant to give buyers a discount, there are still places where aspiring proprietors can find fair deals.
Persons: , they've, Lawrence Yun, Realtor.com, Ralph McLaughlin Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors Locations: Realtor.com
Mortgage rates may affect payoff calculusThe mortgage payoff calculus may change based on whether people can outearn their mortgage rates with safe, guaranteed investments, Benz said. For mortgage rates that are 6% or more, paying that balance off will provide a guaranteed return. Admittedly, the argument over whether to pay off mortgages is "much more emotional and psychological than it is financial," Jenkin said. The big money questions people ask themselves to prepare for retirement are just as important as the emotional ones. What brought you joy while you were working may change in retirement, Michael Finke, a professor of wealth management at The American College of Financial Services, tells Benz.
Persons: Jessica Lautz, Benz, JL Collins, Collins, Robert Daly, Ted Jenkin, Jenkin, Michael Finke Organizations: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, National Association of Realtors, Benz, Getty, CNBC, CNBC FA, The American College of Financial Services Locations: Atlanta
One bit of clarity they’re sure to get: The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, due to be announced Thursday. The Fed lowered borrowing costs in September for the first time in more than four years while signaling additional rate cuts. But a slew of economic figures have been released since the decision, which is important because the Fed’s decision are guided by what those figures show. Investors are betting with near certainty that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point cut, according to futures. Lower rates could entice home buyers to come off the sidelines, and for businesses it could continue plans that have “baked in” lower rates.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell’s, America’s, Harris, Harris ’, ” “, Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, they’re, It’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, The Wall Street, US, Trump, Federal Reserve, Duke University, Institute for Supply, National Association of Realtors
That shortage also affects rent prices. In August, Harris unveiled a multi-pronged plan to lower housing costs. The plan also includes two main proposals to lower rent costs. Both plans to lower rent would be subject to congressional approval, meaning that the measures may be difficult to pass even if Harris wins the presidency. Unlike Harris, Trump has not rolled out a formal housing plan, but he has tied plans to deport undocumented immigrants to housing.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, “ It’s, , Jim Parrott, That’s, ” Parrott, Mario Tama, Freddie Mac, Harris, Trump, “ We’re, homeownership, SSRS, , Nick Pappas Organizations: CNN, Urban Institute, National Economic Council, SSRS, National Association of Realtors, Trump, Economic, of New, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Locations: Arizona , Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Los Angeles , California, America, of New York, Kansas
Detailed below is what Harris and Trump have proposed in order to address these worries. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both pledged to address high prices by boosting the supply of homes. Related storiesThe Democratic candidate also said she plans to expand the existing low-income housing tax credit, which incentivizes the rehabilitation or building of housing targeted at lower-income households. As president, Trump proposed major cuts to the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development's budget, including slashing housing assistance and community development aid. AdvertisementWhile in office in 2017, Trump proposed a budget for the 2018 fiscal year that would have significantly cut rural housing subsidies.
Persons: Harris, Trump, , Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Daryl Fairweather, Redfin, Fairweather, Jessica Lautz, multifamily Organizations: Service, Business, Democratic, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Builders, of Housing, Urban, National Association of Realtors, Democratic Party Locations: America
These so-called "pending" sales were at the highest level since March and 2.6% higher than September of last year. Since pending sales are based on signed contracts, representing people out shopping during the month, it is the most current indicator of buyer demand. "Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady." Regionally pending sales were higher year over year in the Northeast and West and flat in the Midwest and South. The levels of mortgage demand are still historically low, and sales, while higher, are as well.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Selma Hepp Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Analysts, Mortgage News, Realtors, Mortgage, Association Locations: Northeast, West, Midwest, homebuyers
watch nowMany factors make it hard to buy a home today, but the one that makes "the biggest difference" in today's market is the housing shortage, Property Brother Drew Scott said at CNBC's Your Money event on Thursday. "I don't think people realize this shortage of housing that we have affects everything," added his brother Jonathan Scott. Why there's a housing shortageAs of mid-2023, there's a housing shortage of 4 million homes, according to the National Association of Realtors. While there have been recent signs of improvement for housing supply, it's not enough to solve the underlying constraint in the U.S. housing market. 'It's ok if you wait a few years'The Property Brothers Drew Scott (L) and Jonathan Scott.
Persons: Drew Scott, Jonathan Scott, Jonathan, Jason Davis Organizations: Census, Federal Reserve, CNBC, National Association of Realtors, Construction, Getty Locations: U.S
Expectations of a Fed rate cut caused mortgage rates to drop to a two-year low of 6.08% in late September, but it failed to spur homebuying activity. Every percentage point on a mortgage rate makes a big difference for that monthly payment. Here’s what’s driving the recent upswing in mortgage rates. Mortgage rates track the 10-year US Treasury yield, which was expected to fall in anticipation of further rate cuts. “I am clearly not going to own any fixed income.”The government’s fiscal situation might already be having an impact on mortgage rates.
Persons: Freddie Mac, pare, what’s, ” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Robyn Beck, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, “ We’re, Paul Tudor Jones, , ” Lawrence Yun, Kimberly Bradley, Zach, Kimberly, “ I’ve, ” Kimberly, ” Ken Lowrey, Ken Lowrey, “ homeownership, , Lowrey Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Mortgage, Association, Treasury, Getty, Federal Budget, Trump, CNBC, US Postal Service Locations: AFP, Manteo , North Carolina, Charleston , South Carolina
High-yield savings accountsA high-yield savings account earns a higher-than-average interest rate compared with traditional savings accounts, helping your money grow faster. “High-yield savings accounts [are] great if you’re going to be buying in the next year,” Williams said. Money market fundsA money market fund generally has a slightly higher yield than a HYSA, said Dennehy. Some of the highest-yielding retail money market funds are nearly 5% as of Oct. 23, according to Crane Data. Still, money market funds are considered low risk and are intended not to lose value, according to Vanguard.
Persons: , Ryan Dennehy, it’s, Shaun Williams, Dennehy, there’s, Jeffrey Hanson, , ” Williams Organizations: California Financial Advisors, CNBC, Census, Federal Reserve, Paragon Capital Management, National Association of Realtors, PMI, Mortgage, Treasury, U.S ., Traphagen Financial, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Vanguard, Securities Investor Protection Corp Locations: California, San Ramon , California, Denver, Oradell , New Jersey, Denver , Colorado
Sales fell in three out of four U.S. regions, with just the West region seeing a gain. Inventory rose 1.5% month to month to 1.39 million homes for sale at the end of September. That represents a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace. Distressed property sales accounted for only 2% of all transactions in September.”The pressure of still low inventory continues to push prices higher. First-time buyers pulled back again, making up just 26% of September sales.
Persons: , Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, Cash, Yun Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Homes Locations: U.S
Existing-home sales dropped by 1% last month, reaching their lowest level since October 2010. Homebuyers stayed on the sidelines in anticipation of lower mortgage rates. AdvertisementUS existing-home sales dropped to a nearly 14-year low in September as prospective homebuyers held back in anticipation of lower mortgage rates. AdvertisementAccording to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed by 70 basis points since then, to 6.85% from 6.15%. Related storiesIf this trend continues, those prospective homebuyers holding out for lower mortgage rates will be waiting a while.
Persons: Homebuyers, , Redfin Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Mortgage News
Harrison Beacher real estate agent and managing partner at Coalition Properties Group in Washington, D.C. States such as Georgia do not require real estate agents or sellers to disclose upfront if the home was the site of a death. Nearly three-quarters, 72%, of potential homebuyers said they would buy a "haunted" house for a lower price, according to a new report by Real Estate Witch, a data site owned by Clever Real Estate. In some states, real estate agents need to provide truthful information upon a buyer's request, or at the very least, point you toward the right direction to find out. Besides the real estate agent, neighbors can give you first-hand experience of the area, as well as information about the previous homeowners.
Persons: Matt Champlin, Harrison Beacher, Zers, I'm, homebuyers, Daryl Fairweather, Fairweather, Beacher, Leno, Rosemary LaBianca, Charles Manson's, Zak Bagans, Connie Vavra, Theresa Payton Organizations: National Association of Realtors, NAR, Coalition Properties Group, Washington , D.C, Finance, Real, White House Locations: Washington ,, California, Alaska, Dakota, New York, Georgia, Elgin , Illinois
Home prices have soared in the last decade, so buyers get less for their money than they once did. Here are 18 markets with reasonably priced homes that are set for strong price growth. In fact, in some of the nation's competitive markets, $1 million is nothing more than the price of admission to home ownership. Below are 18 cities with homes that cost $633,150 or less in Q2 that are set to be million-dollar markets by the end of 2035, sorted by which will reach the $1 million threshold the fastest. Along with each reasonably priced real-estate market is its median home price and projections for the years ahead, as well as the home price growth rate from 2014 to 2024 that it's based on.
Persons: , Zoocasa's Mackenzie Scibetta, Scibetta Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Golden State, Business Locations: California, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Golden, San Jose, San Francisco's Bay
Wild swings in mortgage rates discouraged almost everyone from venturing out into the market. As I wrote earlier this year, a gummed-up housing market — the Ice Age I was talking about — is good for nobody. When mortgage rates hit multidecade lows during the pandemic, millions of people were able to snag or refinance their way into cheaper monthly costs. That'd be within spitting distance of what the experts at John Burns Research and Consulting, a housing-research firm, call the "magic mortgage rate." In other words, trying to predict mortgage rates — and buying or selling a home accordingly — is a fool's errand.
Persons: Green, that's, Skylar Olsen, everyone's, it's, there's, Fannie Mae, John Burns, they'd, Ralph McLaughlin, Olsen, Lawrence Yun, Altos, Mike Simonsen, Chen Zhao, Zhao, We're, Mark Palim, Palim Organizations: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, National Association of Realtors, Altos Research, Builders, Sun Locations: Sun Belt, Midwest
Total: 25