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The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 21% on Friday. Inflation in Russia hit 8.6% year-on-year in September, well above the central bank's 4% target. It has largely been driven by heavy defense spending amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. AdvertisementRussia's central bank raised its key interest rate to a record high on Friday as inflationary pressure continues in the country. The Bank of Russia raised the benchmark rate by 200 basis points to 21%, saying inflation was "running considerably above" its July forecast.
Persons: , Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko Organizations: Service, Bank of Russia, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Financial Times Locations: Russian, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Europe
A Russian company will reportedly barter chickpeas and lentils for Pakistani tangerines and rice. One Russian company is planning to barter chickpeas and lentils for Pakistani tangerines, rice and potatoes, according to a Tuesday report from Russian state-run news service Tass. AdvertisementThe company will also trade 15,000 tons of chickpeas and 10,000 tons of lentils for 10,000 tons of potatoes and 15,000 tons of tangerines from the Pakistani company. AdvertisementRussia also passed a bill in July that will allow trade payments in crypto. Even Chinese banks, the smaller of which were a key processor for Russian payments, have stopped offering support in recent months.
Persons: , Russia's, Bloomberg Organizations: Service, Tass, Femtee Trading Company, Financial Times, Bank of Locations: Russian, Russia, China, Ukraine, India, Afghanistan, Iran, Bank of Russia
Russia would be in a recession by now if it weren't for the nation's hefty war budget, economists told BI. War spending is propping up the economy, which is becoming increasingly overheated, they added. AdvertisementWar may be the only thing keeping Russia's economy afloat. Russia's economy is also being plagued by currency problems, Gorodnichenko said, pointing to Russia's limited access to the dollar as the result of Western sanctions. That will ultimately depend on how long the war in Ukraine — and therefore, spending on the war — will last.
Persons: , Jay Zagorsky, there's, Zagorsky, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Gorodnichenko, That's Organizations: Service, Boston University's Questrom School of Business, Kremlin, Ukraine, University of California, Bank of, Russia, Ukraine — Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Russian, Berkeley, Bank of Russia, Soviet, China
Russian banks are running low on yuan, Bloomberg reported. AdvertisementAn intensifying supply crunch in the Chinese yuan has pressured Russians to embrace a costlier method of securing the needed currency, Bloomberg reported. With the yuan liquidity shortfall doubling, Russian firms have grown increasingly dependent on yuan swaps provided by the Bank of Russia, Bloomberg said, but borrowing the yuan this way comes at a higher rate. This hasn't stopped yuan swap activity from ballooning. But even before the fresh sanctions package took effect this summer, Chinese banks were already halting yuan payments with Russia over fears of Western repercussions.
Persons: That's, , Bloomberg, Jake Sullivan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Bank of Russia, US, Treasury Department, National, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Locations: Moscow, Beijing, Russia, Ukraine, China
The Chinese yuan made up 99.6% of Russian foreign exchange market in June, Bloomberg reported. This comes after the dollar and euro were barred from Russia's main exchange. One expert predicted this would happen, claiming the yuan would become Russia's main trade currency "once and for all." AdvertisementAverage daily volumes in the foreign exchange market contracted by close to a third in the month's second half, the bank report said. AdvertisementHowever, a surge of Russian demand for the Chinese currency has created a yuan liquidity shortage, Bloomberg separately reported.
Persons: , Moex, Alexandra Prokopenko Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, of, Moscow Exchange, Treasury, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Bank of Locations: of Russia, Moscow, Russia, Beijing, Bank of Russia
Russia's government has spent around half a trillion rubles since 2020 to fund a program offering mortgages at rates as low as 8%. But that program has ushered a wave of Russians into the nation's real estate market, which has sent property prices soaring. Residential property prices in Russia rose to a fresh record in 2023, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. AdvertisementRising property prices are largely attributed to increased housing demand over the past few years. The Bank of Russia also reported "signs of overheating" in the mortgage lending market late last year.
Persons: , Russia's, Elvira Nabiullina, Aleksei Kiselev, Kiselev Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Bank for International, Urban Economics, Bank of Russia, Bank of, Florence School of Banking, Finance, Inflation, Carnegie Endowment, Bank of Russia's Locations: shuttering, Russia, Russian, Bank of Russia
Russia's energy trade likely boomed last month despite sanctions. That's a 50% increase from the prior year, a sign Moscow's energy trade is getting on despite restrictions. According to Reuters, Russia's oil and gas revenue is set to surge to $9.4 billion in June, up roughly 50% from the $6 billion it took in from oil and gas sales in June of last year. The increase in revenue has largely been spurred by declining subsidies to Russia's oil refineries, which fell $60 billion from last month. That may encourage refineries to export oil and gas overseas for a higher price, as opposed to keeping oil and gas for domestic sales.
Persons: , That's Organizations: Reuters, Service, Kremlin, The Bank of Russia Locations: That's, Moscow, China, India, Ukraine, Russia
Russia's oil industry is facing challenges due to intensified Western sanctions. Secondary sanctions are spooking global banks, some of which are turning away from doing business with Russia. AdvertisementRussia's oil industry may finally be meeting its reckoning as the West intensifies its sanctions regime. "After the decline at the beginning of the year, exports have been rebounding, driven by the increase in oil prices," said Nabiullina, according to an official transcript. International crude oil prices are up over 10% so far this year.
Persons: , Elvira Nabiullina Organizations: Service, Bank of, Business Locations: Russia, Bank of Russia
The central bank in August stopped buying foreign currency until the end of the year to avoid aggravating pressure on the rouble, which tumbled past 100 to the dollar in August and September. "From January 2024, the Bank of Russia is resuming operations on the domestic foreign currency market connected to replenishing and using National Wealth Fund (NWF) funds, including taking into account all operations carried out with NWF funds in 2023," the central bank said in a statement. "Therefore, from the start of 2024, the central bank will not buy foreign currency (what it did not buy in August-December), but will increase its sales," Suvorov said. The rouble did not react on Monday, continuing to hover near the more than five-month high it hit last week. The central bank conducts those operations on behalf of the finance ministry, which resumed its interventions in January after a hiatus of several months, shunning what it terms "unfriendly" Western currencies in favour of China's yuan.
Persons: Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Mark Trevelyan Organizations: Bank of Russia, Wealth Fund, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Russian
Russia's ruble is the world's top-performing currency against the dollar in recent weeks. The ruble has jumped more than 10% since hitting a trough of around 100 against the greenback early last month. Still, the ruble is down 17% against the dollar year to date as Russia's economy battles a host of problems. The ruble has jumped more than 10% since hitting a trough of around 100 against the greenback last month, making it the world's best-performing currency versus the dollar in that span. Still, Russia's currency has fallen 17% against the dollar so far this year, attesting to the host of problems facing the nation's economy.
Persons: Organizations: greenback, Service, Bank of Russia Locations: Russia, Russia's, Russian, Ukraine
Russia is no longer scared of western sanctions, a Kremlin spokesperson said last week. There are signs the economy is resilient, with growth holding firm and total wealth increasing in 2022. But western embargoes are still affecting Russia, as exports plunge and the ruble craters. Russia has also got richer despite the war with Ukraine, according to the UBS Global Wealth Report. However, those top-line figures don't mean sanctions aren't working – or that Russia's economy is in rude health.
Persons: , Dmitry Peskov shrugged, that's, Vladimir Putin's Organizations: Kremlin, Service, International Monetary Fund, UBS Global Wealth, Bank of Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Swiss, Bank of Russia
The central bank's sharper-than-expected rate hike to 15% in late October also helped the rouble hit a three-month high of 91.6225 this week. None of the analysts polled now see inflation reaching the lower end of the central bank's 4-4.5% forecast for inflation next year. Russia has steadily worsened its 2023 inflation forecast and analysts now see price rises ending the year above 7%. Analysts raised their expectations for Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.5% this year, from 2.3% in the previous poll. GDP growth in 2024 is seen at 1.5%, dropping to 1.3% in 2025.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Putin, Mikhail Vasilyev, Alexander Marrow, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: Bank of, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Russia, Bank of Russia
The Kremlin is imposing new de facto capital controls to help lift the ruble, the Financial Times reported. Western firms exiting Russia must sell assets in rubles or else face delays and perhaps losses to transfer dollars or euros abroad. On Friday, the Bank of Russia lifted interest rates to 15%, but the ruble has resumed its slide. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia is imposing new de facto capital controls, representing another attempt to help lift its sagging ruble, the Financial Times reported. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia has raising interest rates an unexpected 200 basis points on Friday, helping lift the ruble briefly.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Financial Times, Bank of Russia, Service, Kremlin, Bank of Locations: Russia, Bank of Russia, Ukraine
Russian rouble gives up gains after soaring to 3-month high
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A view shows the newly designed Russian 1000-rouble banknote inside a currency detector during a presentation in Moscow, Russia October 16, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov Acquire Licensing RightsMOSCOW, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble weakened on Tuesday, pulling back after soaring to a three-month high past 92 to the dollar earlier in a volatile session, supported by high interest rates, but facing a month-end reduction in foreign currency sales. By 1324 GMT, the rouble was 0.5% weaker against the dollar at 93.28 . "But at the same time, growth in the money supply is continuing and this will definitely result in rouble weakening." The rouble has strengthened from beyond 100 to the dollar since the decree was announced.
Persons: Maxim Shemetov, Alexei Antonov, Vladimir Putin's, Brent, Alexander Marrow, Christina Fincher, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Russia, Financial Times, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Russian
By 1417 GMT, the rouble was 0.4% stronger against the dollar at 93.57 , earlier reaching 92.5100, its strongest point since Sept. 12. "We expect that by the end of the year the rouble exchange rate will be trading in the range of 94-98 per dollar, 99-104 per euro and 12.8-13.4 per yuan," Vasilyev said. CURRENCY CONTROLSMonth-end tax payments, due on Oct. 30, which usually see exporters convert foreign exchange (FX) revenue to pay domestic liabilities, have supported the rouble in recent days. The rouble has strengthened from beyond 100 to the dollar since the decree was announced. "The specific impact of currency restrictions on the dynamics of the exchange rate will be insignificant in our opinion," she said.
Persons: Mikhail Vasilyev, Vasilyev, Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Vladimir Putin's, Elvira Nabiullina, Brent, Alexander Marrow, Mark Potter, Christopher Cushing, Deborah Kyvrikosaios, Gareth Jones Organizations: Bank, Bank of Russia, FX, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Moscow, London
Russia hikes key rate to 15% in bigger-than-expected rise
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate by a higher than expected 200 basis points to 15% on Friday, hiking borrowing costs for the fourth meeting running in response to a weak rouble and stubborn inflation pressure. "The updated medium-term parameters of fiscal policy assume a slower than expected decline in fiscal stimulus in the years ahead," the bank said. It also acknowledged for the first time that it may not succeed in returning inflation to its 4% target next year, forecasting year-end inflation for 2024 at 4-4.5%. The majority of analysts polled by Reuters had expected a smaller hike to 14%. The rouble leapt to a more than six-week high against the dollar after the decision.
Organizations: Bank, Reuters Locations: Russia, Ukraine
Nabiullina also said the budget was a significant factor in Friday's decision. "It looks like today's interest rate hike front-loaded the tightening cycle in response to the fiscal announcements earlier this month," said Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. The central bank's tightening cycle began this summer when inflationary pressure from a tight labour market, strong consumer demand and the budget deficit was compounded by the falling rouble. But the bank set its 2023 key rate range at 15-15.2%, suggesting rates could climb further and Nabiullina said that may be required. Sinara Investment Bank analyst Sergei Konygin said the lack of forward hawkish guidance meant it was highly likely the key rate had already reached its upper boundary.
Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Liam Peach, Dmitry Polevoy, Sergei Konygin, Vladimir Soldatkin, Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones, Mark Trevelyan, John Stonestreet, Mike Harrison Organizations: Bank, Russia, Bank of Russia, Capital Economics, Reuters, Sinara Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow, Locko, London
Russian war economy is overheating on a powder keg
  + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - His war on Ukraine may not be unfolding according to plan, but President Vladimir Putin can still claim that the Russian economy is performing, as he says, “better than previously expected”. This kind of understatement is unusual for the Kremlin leader: with a tight labour market and inflation showing no signs of abating, the Russian economy is in fact overheating. And these are conservative numbers, because other types of war spending – such as new construction in the occupied territories – are hidden in other sections of the budget. The Russian currency is down 30% since its January high. Follow @pierrebri on XCONTEXT NEWSThe Russian economy will grow by 2.2% in 2023, the International Monetary Fund said in its October World Economic Outlook.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, , Putin, Alexandra Prokopenko, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Kremlin, International Monetary, Bank of Russia, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of, Danone, Carlsberg, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Russia, , Moscow, Europe, Lithuania, microchips, Kazakhstan, Bank of Russia, United States, China, U.S, Beijing
REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsMOSCOW, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The number of Russians who say their salary does not cover basic spending has jumped by 20 percentage points in two years to almost half, a survey by recruiter Headhunter showed, as Moscow diverts record fiscal resources to funding its war in Ukraine. Asked whether their salary was enough to cover basic spending, without taking into account income from second jobs or investments, just one in five Russians surveyed said yes. That is up from 25% in 2021 and 39% in 2022, Headhunter's survey showed. Of the 45% lacking the money for basic spending, more than half said they were at least 20,000 roubles ($212) short per month. The average monthly nominal wage earned by Russians was 71,419 roubles ($756) in July, Rosstat's statistics show.
Persons: Evgenia, Headhunter, Vladimir Putin, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones Organizations: U.S ., Russian, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Russia's, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine
But Russia's Accounts Chamber, which oversees budget execution, warned on Monday there were risks the Urals price would fall below $60 in 2024-2026. Russia's forecast sees economic growth of 2.3% in 2024, well above estimates of 1.1% from the International Monetary Fund and 0.5%-1.5% from the Bank of Russia. CHANGING TUNEAt Russia's flagship economic forum in St Petersburg in June, Siluanov said increasing expenditure was difficult, as budget spending had already increased by 1-1/2 times from 2019 to 2022. Now, even as the government outlines plans for spending to jump to 36.7 trillion roubles in 2024, he is more relaxed. Renaissance Capital's Donets and Melaschenko said Russia could create temporary taxes, permanently increase rates of VAT, or adjust Russia's budget rule to permit more spending of energy revenues.
Persons: Evgenia, Anton Tabakh, Vladimir Putin, Anton Siluanov, Denis Popov, Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Sofya Donets, Andrei Melaschenko, Dmitry Polevoy, Siluanov, Melaschenko, Alexei Sazanov, Sazanov, Konstantin Sonin, It's, Sumanta Sen, Mark Trevelyan, Alexander Marrow, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S ., Russian, REUTERS, Washington, Finance, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Russia, Capital, Reuters Graphics Russia, University of Chicago, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, West, St Petersburg
REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Russian rouble climbs to over 2-week high vs dollarMove comes after Putin reimposes currency controlsRouble had slumped to over 18-month low this weekAnalysts expect rouble to firm more in coming weeksOct 12 (Reuters) - Russia's rouble leapt against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after President Vladimir Putin ordered the mandatory sale of foreign currency revenues for some exporters to buttress the currency. The rouble collapsed to a record low in the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, before Moscow imposed similar capital controls that saw it recover to a seven-year high. Kogan warned, however, that by 2025-2026 businesses would form plans based on a rouble rate of 100-105. The central bank endorsed the measures, a shift in its stance, after it previously warned of the inefficiency of currency controls. "The rouble is even less tradable for foreign investors after Russia re-imposed some capital controls," Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.
Persons: Maxim Shemetov, Putin, Rouble, rouble, Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Kogan, Kogan, Gref, Andrei Belousov, Piotr Matys, Dmitry Polevoy, Brent, Alexander Marrow, Amruta, Robert Birsel, Mark Potter, Varun, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Russia's Higher, of Economics, TASS, Wednesday, Bank of Russia, FX, Touch, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, outflows, Locko, Bangalore
An employee counts Russian 1000-rouble banknotes in a bank office in Moscow, Russia, in this illustration picture taken October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 10 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble dived towards a more than an 18-month low on Tuesday before paring most losses in a volatile session, under pressure from domestic demand for foreign currency and a drop in oil prices. By 1034 GMT, the rouble was 0.3% weaker against the dollar at 99.63 . It had lost 0.8% to trade at 105.55 versus the euro and shed 0.4% against the yuan to 13.64 . "The bank may show a record profit of 1.5 trillion roubles for the year."
Persons: Maxim Shemetov, Sber, Yevgeny Kogan, Alexander Marrow, Ed Osmond, Gareth Jones Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Russia, Russia's Higher, of Economics, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Russian, Brent
REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsOct 9 (Reuters) - The rouble rebounded after slumping to a more than 18-month low against the dollar on Monday in a volatile session, still hampered by reduced foreign currency supply but eventually latching on to higher oil prices to gain ground. By 1500 GMT, the rouble was 0.7% stronger against the dollar at 99.75 , recovering from hitting 102.3450 earlier, its weakest point since March 23, 2022. The Russian currency tumbled to a record low 121.5275 in the weeks after Moscow's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The rouble had gained 0.5% to trade at 105.24 versus the euro and firmed 0.6% against the yuan to 13.64 . The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 0.9% higher at 3,172.2 points, earlier reaching a near one-month high.
Persons: Maxim Shemetov, rouble, Alexei Antonov, Alexander Marrow, Angus MacSwan, Mark Potter, Gareth Jones Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Russia, Reuters, Brent, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine
A view shows a Russian one rouble coin in front of a screen in this illustration picture taken August 22, 2023. By 1125 GMT, the rouble was 1.8% weaker against the dollar at 102.18 , its weakest point since March 23, 2022. The Russian currency tumbled to a record low 121.5275 in the weeks after Moscow's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The rouble had lost 1.9% to trade at 107.76 versus the euro and shed 2.1% against the yuan to 14.01 . The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 1.3% higher at 3,184.6 points, a near one-month high.
Persons: Maxim Shemetov, rouble, Alexei Antonov, Alexander Marrow, Angus MacSwan, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Russia, Reuters, Brent, Thomson Locations: Russian, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine
Russian rouble hits more than seven-week low past 101 vs dollar
  + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Oct 6 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble weakened on Friday, dropping to a more than seven-week low past 101 against the dollar, under pressure from lower oil prices and the reduced supply of foreign currency from exporters at the start of the month. At 0645 GMT, the rouble was 0.6% softer against the dollar at 101.02 , having earlier touched 101.50, its weakest since Aug. 14. It had lost 0.6% to trade at 106.40 versus the euro and shed 0.6% against the yuan to 13.81 . Delayed action by the authorities and Russia's trade imbalance - exports have contracted this year, while imports have recovered sharply - are causing the rouble's weakness, said Promsvyazbank analysts in a note. Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was up 0.1% at $84.15 a barrel, near its lowest since late August.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Brent, Alexander Marrow, Jan Harvey Organizations: Bank of Russia, Thomson Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia's, Russia, U.S
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