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Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFears are mounting that the U.S. could soon experience its own version of Britain's "mini-budget" crisis, with bond strategists warning that Donald Trump's return to the White House brings with it the specter of currency volatility and surging bond yields. The former president's economic agenda has ratcheted up concerns about a surge in consumer prices, which strategists say could spark significant shifts in bond yields and investor behavior. They warn a scenario that mirrors Britain's mini-budget crisis of 2022 is not out of the question. watch nowBritain's mini-budget crisis refers to a tumultuous period under former Prime Minister Liz Truss and ex-Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Bond yields tend to rise when market participants expect higher consumer prices or a growing budget deficit.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Remtulla, Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Kwarteng, Althea Spinozzi, Trump's, Spinozzi, Angela Weiss, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Thierry Wizman, likelier, Wizman Organizations: Economic, of New, Bloomberg, Getty, EFG, CNBC, U.S ., Finance, U.S, Bank of England, Saxo Bank, White, Treasury, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Capital Economics, Macquarie Group Locations: of New York, New York, U.S, Foreign, Treasurys, Treasuries, New York City, America
Dollar pulls ahead as markets focus on Trump policies, Fed outlook
  + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
After stalling for three sessions, the greenback was back on the march higher, with investors lifting the dollar index measure against its key rivals closer to a one-year high of 107.07 hit last week. The dollar has rallied more than 2% since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election on bets Trump's policies could reignite inflation and temper the Fed's future rate cuts. The dollar index held steady at 106.56, up from a one-week nadir hit in the previous session. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict is heating up, which is further denting sentiment towards the euro alongside the prospects of trade tariffs," another "bullish cue" for the dollar index given the euro's heavy weighting, City Index's Simpson said. The dollar gave up some gains against the yen, down 0.33% at 154.91 yen , although the Japanese currency remained under pressure.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, CME's, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Index's Simpson, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Storm, ATACMS, Bank of Japan, Bank of England's Locations: Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, Paris
LONDON — U.K. inflation picked up sharply to a higher-than-expected 2.3% in October, data from the British Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday. The hike marks a sharp increase from the 1.7% rise recorded in September and exceeds the 2.2% forecast of economists polled by Reuters. The latest print once again brings inflation above the Bank of England's 2% target, potentially dampening the prospects of a final interest rate cut this year. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.3% for the month, up slightly from 3.2% in September. The uptick was anticipated in part due to an increase in the regulator-set energy price cap that took effect in October, which is expected to lead to higher energy price inflation over the colder winter months.
Persons: Price Organizations: British Office, National Statistics, Reuters, Bank of England's, Institute of Chartered Accountants Locations: England, Wales
A higher economic growth rate could theoretically boost the government's tax take without the need to raise taxes further, because overall revenues would be higher. The OBR now expects U.K. real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2024, followed by expansion of 2% in 2025, before falling to 1.5%. The Labour government did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment on further possible tax changes. 'Desperate' growth ratesThe U.K. economy barely grew in the third quarter, eking out a less-than-expected 0.1% expansion, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Friday. We've had 1% growth, or around 1% growth now since the Financial Crisis.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, James Smith, CNBC's, John Grieve, Reeves, Gieve, , Labour's, ING's Smith, We've Organizations: Treasury, Getty, Labour, Finance, ING, of, CNBC, National Insurance, Office, National Statistics, Gross Locations: London, England
Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. Gross domestic product came in at 0.1% in the three months to September compared to the previous quarter. That's below the 0.2% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters and follows an expansion of 0.5% in the second quarter of the year.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Rachel Reeves, Thiru, Donald Trump, Trump's, Andrew Bailey, I'm Organizations: of England, Getty, Gross, Reuters, National Statistics, Bank of England's, Bank of England, Labour, Finance, Institute of Chartered Accountants, U.S Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom, The City, U.K, That's, Britain, England, Wales
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer BOE member on what Trump's reelection could mean for the UKJohn Gieve, former deputy governor at the Bank of England, speaks to CNBC's Silvia Amaro about monetary policy and Trump tariff implications.
Persons: Former BOE, John Gieve, CNBC's Silvia Amaro Organizations: Former, Bank of England
Incumbent governments have been punished in Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere. The near-universal shift away from Democrats echoes voters' rejection of incumbent political parties across the world this year. South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. Similarly, Deutsche Bank's Reid wrote that voters are disappointed by how slowly their lives are improving amid cooler economic growth. He said they don't buy that incumbents can tackle immigration, some incumbent governments have had scandals, and voters have become "much more willing to change their vote from election to election."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, , Donald Trump, Biden, Harris, Narendra Modi, Korea's Democrat Party snagged, Jim Reid, Tina Fordham, Louis Perron, Deutsche Bank's Reid Organizations: Service, Democratic, Britain's Labour Party, Conservative Party, Rally, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, Indian, Korea's Democrat Party, National Congress, ANC, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Bank of England, European Central Bank, CNN, Win, Deutsche Locations: Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, London, Tokyo, Seoul, Cape Town, Washington, Gaza, country's, South, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of England looks set to cut rates four times in 2025, economist saysKallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, weighs in on the likely course for U.K. interest rates, saying the Bank of England looks set to cut by a total of 100 basis points in 2025.
Persons: Kallum Pickering, Peel Hunt Organizations: Email Bank of England, Peel, Bank of England
Dollar winds down after volatile week, China NPC in focus
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar further unwound some of its sharp gains from earlier in the week as traders closed out profitable bets on a Trump presidency after his election victory. That helped lift sterling back toward the $1.30 mark, while the yen similarly got some respite and hovered closer to the 153 per dollar level. Sterling last traded $1.2983, recovering from its fall to a roughly three-month low earlier in the week. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked up 0.03% to 104.44, on track to gain just above 0.1% for the week. "All eyes are on what may emerge from China's policy toolkit after the conclusion of the NPC standing committee meeting."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Kerry Craig, Trump, Wells, Jay Bryson, Sterling, David Chao Organizations: White, National People's Congress, Trump, Federal Reserve, Morgan Asset Management, Traders, Bank of England, NPC, New Zealand, Asia Pacific, European Union Locations: U.S, Beijing, Germany, Wells Fargo, Japan, Invesco
Firm dollar keeps peers on back foot ahead of BOE, Fed decisions
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Trump's policies on restricting illegal immigration, enacting new tariffs, lowering taxes and deregulation may boost growth and inflation and crimp the Fed's ability to cut rates. Following the election, markets now see about a 70% chance the Fed will also cut rates next month, down from 77% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. Anything less than a "dovish cut" from the Fed on Thursday could see traders trim back bets for a December cut and the dollar and yields rising higher, Simpson added. The yen was up 0.22% at 154.30 per dollar, after touching 154.7 on Wednesday, its lowest against the greenback since July 30. The Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points, and the Norges Bank is set to stay on hold.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, Trump, Treasuries, Simpson Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Trump, White, Index, Treasury, Fed, Republicans, CME, Bank of England, Norges Bank, Bitcoin Locations: U.S, Index ., cryptocurrencies
A pedestrian crosses the streets in front of The Bank of England illuminated by a ray of sunlight, in central London, on February 12, 2024. LONDON — The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates Thursday, when policymakers deliver their first monetary policy decision following Labour's bumper budget announcement last week. The BOE is forecast to lower rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, bringing its key rate to 4.75%. Policymakers had signaled a "gradual approach" to cuts after holding rates steady at their September meeting. The Federal Reserve on Thursday will also deliver its latest interest rate decision following the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, having previously cut by 50 basis points in September.
Persons: BOE, Goldman Sachs, Rachel Reeves Organizations: The Bank of England, LONDON, Bank of England, Finance, Federal Reserve, U.S Locations: London
European markets are heading for a mixed open as global investors digest Donald Trump's presidential election win and political upheaval in Germany. They also await monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Global markets continue to react to Donald Trump's decisive election win, with U.S. stocks rallying Wednesday as Wall Street rejoiced the speedy conclusion of the presidential election. Central banks will be closely watched Thursday, with the Fed and BoE both expected to announce rate cuts. Scholz announced he would bring a vote of confidence to the German parliament on Jan. 15.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Germany's DAX, BoE, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Lindner's, Scholz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, France's CAC, IG, Global, Fed Locations: Germany, Asia, Pacific, U.S
Oversnap | E+ | Getty ImagesLONDON — Britons are facing the prospect of higher mortgage rates for longer after the government's tax-and-spend budget threw off expectations for a series of near-term interest rate cuts. Mortgage rates also took a hit from the uncertainty, with a number of smaller and mainstream lenders raising mortgage rates on the expectation that interest rates may stay higher for longer. watch nowVirgin Money became the first major lender to raise mortgage rates after the budget, lifting them by 0.15%. "This isn't the radical spike in rates that have blighted mortgage rates in the last couple of years. He added that interest rates could now remain 50-basis-points higher than previously expected at the end of the cutting cycle.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, , David Hollingworth, Hollingworth, Allan Monks, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, Wednesday, Virgin Money, Santander, Morgan's Locations: London's, Oversnap
The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0876 but faces resistance around $1.0905, while the dollar dipped 0.3% on the yen to 152.45 yen . Analysts believe Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while Harris was seen as the continuity candidate. "A Harris win and a split Congress would likely result in 'Trump trades' quickly reversed and priced out," he added. Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing. Futures imply a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut to 4.50%-4.75%, and an 83% probability of a similar-sized move in December.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Harris, Chris Weston, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Dealers, Trump, Reserve, of England, Norges Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Labor, China's National People's Congress, Reuters Locations: Asia, United States, Iowa, Treasuries, gilts, Beijing
Loading chart...LONDON — U.K. borrowing costs posted two days of gains right after the Labour government unveiled a huge package of borrowing and tax rises in its Wednesday budget — but analysts downplayed the possibility of a second "mini-budget" crisis in the British bond market. The 10-year gilt yield , representing medium-term borrowing costs for the government, was slightly lower on the day at 11:20 a.m. London time. Yields move inversely to prices, so higher yields represent a sell-off in bonds — and an aversion to funding U.K. debt. The incident sent bond yields soaring so rapidly, they threatened to destabilize pension funds. Loading chart..."The market is right to be concerned" about the U.K. fiscal outlook, Mohit Kumar, chief financial economist for Europe at Jefferies, told CNBC.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Liz Truss, BOE, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, It's, Streeter, CNBC's, Sterling, Mohit Kumar, We've Organizations: LONDON, Labour, Wednesday, Bank of England, Deutsche Bank, Hargreaves, U.S ., Jefferies, CNBC Locations: London
watch nowLONDON — U.K. bond yields spiked sharply Thursday after the ruling Labour Party unveiled a sweeping package of tax hikes and increased borrowing. Yields had already risen on Wednesday shortly after the budget announcement by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, which contained plans for £40 billion ($52 billion) worth of tax hikes and committed to substantially higher borrowing in the coming years. Despite the big moves this week, the gilt market is remaining relatively stable compared to September 2022, when the U.K. suffered its so-called "mini-budget crisis." Analysts had said ahead of the October 2024 budget that such bond market volatility was unlikely to repeat itself, largely because the U.K. inflation has dropped sharply since the Truss era. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said Thursday it would "reduce the urgency for sequential cuts in the near term."
Persons: Rachel Reeves, We've, Liz Truss, Truss, Reeves, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Andrew Sheets, BOE, Sterling Organizations: Labour Party, Labour, ING, Budget, Conservative Party, Bank of England, Goldman, CNBC, U.S Locations: London
Rachel Reeves, UK chancellor of the exchequer, outside 11 Downing Street ahead of presenting her budget to parliament in London, UK, on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — British businesses are smarting after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' bumper tax-rising budget, with analysts warning that the measures could slow hiring and push up inflation. Under the new rules, employer NI will rise by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April 2025, while the level at which employers start paying NI for workers will drop from £9,100 to £5,000. Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of the Confederation of British Industry, a business interest group, described it as a "tough budget for business." That is because businesses could pass on the additional costs to consumers by increasing the price of their products.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, , Roger Barker, Barker, Mike Kemp, Andrew Martin, Newton, Smith, Morgan, Andrew Sheets, CNBC's, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, LONDON, National Insurance, Labour, Conservative, Institute of, Institute of Directors, of British Industry, Corporation, Insurance, CNBC, Bank of, Morgan Locations: London, City of London, United Kingdom
Maja Smiejkowska | ReutersLONDON — U.K. borrowing costs on Wednesday touched their highest level since Labour took office, after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves unveiled a vast package of tax hikes in her first budget. The yield had cooled to a 3 basis point rise to 4.35% by 4:00 p.m. U.K. time (12:00 p.m. The yield on 2-year bonds, which in the U.K. are known as gilts, were over 6 basis points higher at 4.33% after rising by as much as 10 basis points. The Treasury separately said it would raise gilt issuance by £22.2 billion ($28.9 billion) to £299.9 billion for the fiscal year to meet its net financing requirement. Those included the facts that many key policies had already been announced, and that any increase in borrowing would be to fund public investment.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Maja Smiejkowska, Reeves, Liz Truss Organizations: Reuters LONDON, Labour, Treasury, Conservative Party, Bank of England Locations: London, Britain
General view of the City of London skyline, the capital's financial district, in October. LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2024 growth outlook for the United Kingdom, saying declines in interest rates and inflation would boost domestic demand. The IMF now sees 1.1% growth for the U.K. economy this year, up from a July forecast of 0.7%. Inflation in the U.K. came in at 1.7% in September, a decline from 11.1% in October 2022. Economic growth has been tepid so far this year, coming in at 0.2% in August after flatlining in June and July.
Persons: flatlining Organizations: LONDON, Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank of England Locations: London, United Kingdom
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesLONDON — The U.K. is likely to see interest rates drop at a faster pace than previously expected, according to economists who flagged key data releases that indicated inflationary pressures are finally easing. However, economists at Goldman Sachs in a Monday note forecast rate cuts "notably below market pricing." As a result, they see consecutive 25 basis point cuts taking the Bank Rate to 3% as early as September 2025, and to 2.75% in November next year. "Recent data have cemented expectations of another cut in interest rates in November. "That said, uncertainty around the economic outlook is high, and interest rate expectations will be sensitive to what the government announces in the Budget," Muir added.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Goldman Sachs, BOE, Price, , James Smith, Smith, David Muir, Muir, Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves Organizations: of England, Labour, Bank of England's, BOE policymakers, Bank of England, ING . Services, Reuters, International Energy Agency, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Moody's, Finance Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom
Asking prices for UK homes barely rise in October, Rightmove says
  + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Asking prices for British homes rose only marginally in October as more properties came onto the market, according a survey on Monday that also suggested some buyers were waiting for clarity on tax changes in the new government's upcoming budget. Asking prices rose by just 0.3% in October, well below their average for a 1.3% monthly increase for the month, property website Rightmove said. Overall activity in the property market remained strong, with buyer demand rising. "Despite a budget-shaped cloud on the horizon, the big picture still looks positive for the market heading into 2025. Mortgage lenders Halifax and Nationwide both reported rises in house prices in September.
Persons: Rightmove, Tim Bannister, Bannister Organizations: Bank of England, Nationwide Locations: London's Muswell Hill, London, Halifax
The onshore yuan ticked 0.06% higher to 7.1199 per dollar, while its offshore counterpart rose 0.12% to 7.1282. Data on Thursday showed U.S. retail sales growth was higher than expected and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. "All of that has played in to a stronger dollar," said Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ in Wellington. The New Zealand dollar was similarly eyeing a 0.75% fall for the week and was little changed at $0.6063 in the Asia session. The U.S. dollar index hit a 2-1/2 month high of 103.87 on Thursday and is up nearly 0.8% forthe week thus far.
Persons: Donald Trump, Ho Woei Chen, Jason Wong, There's, Yahya Sinwar, Israel's, Benjamin Netanyahu, Sterling Organizations: European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Securities, Fund, Insurance, ECB, Reuters, Trump, New Zealand, Bank of England, U.S Locations: Asia, China, Wellington, U.S, Israel, Gaza
The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom. LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England's 2% target since April 2021. Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August. Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.
Persons: Price Organizations: National Statistics, Reuters, Bank of England's, Bank of England Locations: Wharf, London, United Kingdom
LONDON — The U.K. economy grew 0.2% in August on a month-on-month basis, flash figures published by the Office for National Statistics showed Friday. Gross domestic product (GDP) came in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who had forecast growth of 0.2%. Britain's economic growth was up 0.2% in the three months to August, compared with the 0.5% recorded in the three months to July. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves welcomed the data, saying returning the economy to growth is the government's "number one priority." "With interest rates beginning to fall, the responsibility has shifted from the Bank of England to Rachel Reeves, who must now make critical fiscal decisions.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Lindsay James Organizations: Office, National Statistics, Gross, Reuters, Labour, Conservative, Quilter Investors, Bank of Locations: Britain
Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, gestures as he addresses the media during a press conference at the Bank of England in London on Aug. 1, 2024. The British pound tumbled more than 1% against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after a The Guardian report that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested more positive inflation data could lead the central bank toward a more aggressive approach to interest rate cuts. He also said he was encouraged that cost of living pressures had not been as persistent as previously thought, according to the Guardian. The central bank held its key rate in September, after cutting it by 25 basis points in August to 5%. During the September meeting, the institution expressed concerns about services inflation and the labor market, despite headline inflation hovering near its 2% target.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Sterling, Bailey, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Guardian, U.S . Federal, CNBC Locations: London, British
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