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"Given the absence of a growth engine, it wouldn't surprise me if the Japanese economy contracted again in the current quarter. The risk of Japan falling into recession cannot be ruled out," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. "The weak growth and the spectre of slowing inflation could delay the BOJ's exit from negative interest rates," he said. Japan’s economy contracts in the third quarterThe weak reading reflects lacklustre consumption and capital expenditure, dashing policymakers' hopes for a post-pandemic rebound in domestic activity to offset weaker external demand from China and elsewhere. He said better net exports, underpinned by car shipments and tourism, helped lift growth in the second quarter, belying the weakness in domestic demand.

Persons: Androniki, Takeshi Minami, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, Fumio Kishida, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Norinchukin Research, Gross, Moody's, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, China

In a sign of growing pessimism over China, the government also said its monthly economic report for August that "concern over China's outlook" was among risks to Japan's recovery. "Exports to China had already been weak and headwinds to inbound tourism are clearly bad for Japan's economy," said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. "All in all, it's hard to justify tightening monetary policy any time soon." Firms also promised wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, heightening the case for a retreat from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. The darkening outlook for Japan's recovery may push back the timing of a BOJ policy shift.

Persons: Marko Djurica, Kazuo Ueda's, Hiroyuki Ogawa, Ogawa, Takeshi Niinami, Toru Suehiro, Ueda, Toyoaki Nakamura, Seisaku Kameda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan's, Reuters, Japan, Komatsu Ltd, Komatsu, Suntory Holdings, Daiwa Securities, Japan's Sompo Holdings, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, TOKYO, Beijing, United States

New Governor of Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda meets Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at prime minister?s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, April 10, 2023. The discussions took place in the wake of the dollar's recent ascent above 145 yen, a level that in September 2022 triggered Japan's first yen-buying operation since 1998. "There wasn't anything in particular discussed today," Ueda told reporters after the meeting, when asked whether the two held talks on recent exchange-rate volatility. Ueda also said he explained to Kishida the Bank of Japan's decision last month to loosen its grip on long-term interest rates. It was the second such meeting since Ueda assumed the top BOJ post in April.

Persons: Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda, Fumio Kishida, Kimimasa, Ueda Yen, Kazuo Ueda, Japan's, Ueda, Haruhiko, Shunichi Suzuki, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Satoshi Sugiyama, Chang, Ran Kim, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS Acquire, Ueda, Bank of, Soaring U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

TOKYO, July 24 (Reuters) - Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Monday recent inflation and wage rises were overshooting expectations, suggesting companies were changing practices that had been based on the assumption prices won't rise much. The central bank is likely to revise up its inflation forecasts at its two-day policy meeting ending on Friday, Kanda told reporters, adding that he was not in a position to comment on specific monetary policy. "It's become a shared view at home and abroad that changes are seen in Japan's corporate price- and wage-setting behaviour," Kanda told reporters. "If you add up data available so far, we'll probably see an upgrade in the BOJ's (inflation) forecasts," he said. On Friday, Kanda told Reuters that "various expectations and speculations are spreading about the possibility of some kind of tweak to monetary policy."

Persons: Masato Kanda, Kanda, It's, we'll, Kazuo Ueda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill, Lincoln Organizations: Bank of Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

[1/6] A chef cooks tofu as he prepares a dish before the opening for dinner hour at Ukai, a traditional Japanese restaurant, in Tokyo, Japan, July 6, 2023. "There's no doubt rising wages and bonuses are among factors prodding customers to come dine with us despite the price hikes," said Ukai manager Yuka Hoshino. It is also drawing the attention of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which is shifting away from its view the recent cost-driven inflation will prove temporary. "Japan is seeing early signs of progress in achieving inflation accompanied by higher wages," another source said, a view echoed by two more sources. The BOJ is changing its tone on the drivers of inflation and how they see progress made in sustainably hitting 2% inflation.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Hiroki Wakita, Yuka Hoshino, Kazuo Ueda, Teikoku Databank, Akihito Sato, Shohei Kanai, Ryozo Himino, Seisaku Kameda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Research, Workers, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, French, Ginza

It will be a tug-of-war between robust domestic demand and sluggish exports," he said. The growth followed a 0.1% fall in the final quarter of last year, which was revised down from a 0.1% rise. Japan economy expands more than expectedPrivate consumption, which makes up more than half the economy, grew 0.6% in January-March from the previous quarter, as the country's re-opening from the pandemic boosted service spending. The strength in domestic demand offset weakness in exports, which slumped 4.2% in January-March, marking the first decline in six quarters. External demand, or net exports, shaved 0.3% percentage point off gross domestic product (GDP), highlighting the strain on manufacturers from slowing overseas growth.

"It's not as if we're heading into a major crisis now," Suzuki said. Suzuki said he plans to attend the ASEAN+3 meeting on Tuesday, to be held on the sidelines of the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) annual meeting in Incheon in South Korea next week. The Bank of Japan also said its Governor Kazuo Ueda will travel to Incheon on May 1-4 to attend the meetings. The International Monetary Fund has urged Asian central banks to keep monetary policy "tighter for longer" to combat still substantial inflation risks. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The precedent set at the "shunto" spring wage talks also influences wages at smaller firms that employ seven out of 10 Japanese workers. The shunto wages eventually peaked in 1974 with a record 33% rise in pay. Wary of increasing fixed costs, many Japanese firms have long opted to pay one-off bonuses in good times rather than raise base pay. Economists projected a 2.85% wage increase in a January poll, with base pay increases accounting for 1.08% and 1.78% from an increase in additional salary, based on seniority. Asked whether they would carry out base pay increase, 41.6% said they intended to.

The precedent set at the "shunto" spring wage talks also influences wages at smaller firms that employ seven out of 10 Japanese workers and supply big manufacturers. The focus on job security, rather than higher pay, is blamed for keeping Japan's wage growth stagnant. WHAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME OF THE WAGE TALKS? Analysts expect big firms to offer wage hikes of around 3% in wage talks, which would be the fastest pace of increase since 1997 when Japan was on the cusp of deflation. Kishida has approached Japan's union umbrella Rengo in prodding firms to hike base pay.

It will also test Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's flagship "new capitalism" policy that aims to more widely distribute wealth among households by prodding firms to hike pay. World's largest car maker Toyota (7203.T) accepted a union demand for the biggest base salary growth in 20 years, while gaming giant Nintendo (7974.T) plans to lift base pay by 10%. The gain will comprise a 1.08% rise in base pay and a 1.78% increase in additional salary based on seniority, it said. Uncertainty over the sustainability of wage hikes could prod the BOJ to go slow in dialing back stimulus, some analysts say. The BOJ will probably wait until next year in doing anything radical, such as ending its bond yield control policy."

But the increase was much smaller than forecast, suggesting the global economic slowdown may be taking a toll on the country's export-reliant recovery. The world's third-largest economy expanded an annualised 0.6% in the final quarter of last year, government data showed, rebounding from a revised 1.0% contraction in July-September. The increase in gross domestic product (GDP) was much smaller than a median market forecast for a 2.0% rise. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's gross domestic product (GDP), rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter, matching a median market forecast. With inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target, the outlook for the economy and wages will be key to how soon the central bank could phase out its massive stimulus programme.

[1/2] Kazuo Ueda, a former member of the BOJ's policy board, is seen at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan May 25, 2022, in this photo taken by Kyodo. Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan policy board member and an academic at Kyoritsu Women's University, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8. The governor and deputy governor nominees will testify at confirmation hearings to be held on Feb. 24 for the lower house, and Feb. 27 for the upper chamber. International markets have been closely watching Kishida's choice of next BOJ governor for clues on how soon the bank could phase out its yield curve control (YCC) policy. With markets creaking under the BOJ's heavy-handed intervention, many investors are betting the central bank will start hiking rates under Kuroda's successor.

Ueda, a 71-year-old former Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member, will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ends on April 8, according to documents presented to parliament on Tuesday. Analysts expect Ueda, who had warned of the dangers of premature interest rate hikes in the past, to hold off on tightening monetary policy. "Ueda is likely to focus on theory and empirical analysis in guiding monetary policy," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Upon parliament's approval, Ueda will chair his first BOJ policy meeting on April 27-28. A soft-spoken academic with a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ueda is seen as a pragmatist who can adjust his views on monetary policy flexibly.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, however, reiterated the central bank's resolve to keep interest rates ultra-low, indicating that the yen's broad downtrend could continue. The finance minister repeated his warning that authorities are closely watching market moves and will not tolerate "excessive currency moves driven by speculative trading". In September, when Japan conducted its first yen-buying intervention since 1998, authorities immediately confirmed they had stepped in. Since the Oct. 21 intervention, the yen has been moving in a range below the psychologically important threshold of 150 yen versus the dollar. As such, it's necessary to support the economy with acccomodative monetary policy," Kuroda told parliament on Tuesday.

"We are closely watching market moves with a high sense of urgency. Japan spent 2.8 trillion yen ($18.81 billion) in dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention last month when authorities acted in the markets to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. The BOJ's previous estimate, released on Sept. 30, indicated a decline of 2.9 trillion yen as of the start of October. The gap of more than 1 trillion yen could reflect funds absorbed from excess reserves as a result of yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention. At Tuesday's parliamentary session, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida joined in warning that rapid, speculation-driven currency moves were problematic.

Suzuki, speaking in parliament, pointed to Japan's currency intervention last month when pressed by an opposition lawmaker on what a decisive response meant. "We are closely watching market moves with a high sense of urgency. We will make an appropriate response decisively to excessive moves," Suzuki said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"We intervened in the currency market as a decisive measure (on September 22₎." At Tuesday's parliamentary session, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida joined in warning that rapid, speculation-driven currency moves were problematic.

TOKYO, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday authorities would respond appropriately to excessive currency moves driven by speculators, as the yen fell to a fresh 32-year low to the dollar. "We cannot tolerate excessive currency moves driven by speculators," Suzuki said. "We are closely watching currency moves with a sense of urgency." At the same parliament session, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also said speculative-driven rapid currency moves were problematic. "The Bank of Japan decides monetary policy based not just on currency moves but comprehensive factors, such as economic and price developments as well as the impact on small and midsize firms," Kishida said.

"We are deeply concerned about recent rapid and one-sided market moves driven in part by speculative trading," Suzuki told the news conference. The remarks came after the government's decision on Thursday to intervene in the currency market to stem yen weakness by selling dollars and buying yen for the first time since 1998. read moreKuroda said the government's intervention was an appropriate move to deal with "rapid, one-sided" yen moves. "Monetary policy and currency policy have different goals and effects," he said. "It was a meaningful move that showed Japan's determination it won't leave unattended sharp market volatility," he said.

"With the United States raising interest rates, emerging economies have little choice but to hike rates to avoid their currencies from depreciating too much," he said. Asakawa said many Asian emerging economies have sufficient buffers, such as ample current account surpluses and foreign reserves, to weather another crisis. "Some emerging Asian countries could intervene to prevent their currencies from depreciating. Countries like Malaysia put in place capital controls during the Asian financial crisis," Asakawa said. Asian policymakers must also prepare for when volatile market moves destabilise regional economies, he added.

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