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☆ Bank of England set to raise rates for 14th time in a row
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Market expectations for peak Bank Rate reached 6.5% on July 11 after data showed record wage growth before falling back to 5.75% after a sharp decline in consumer price inflation. Investors see a two-in-three chance of the BoE raising Bank Rate to 5.25% on Thursday but for most economists polled by Reuters the BoE's decision is finely balanced. However, some BoE critics argue it risks causing an unnecessary downturn, and that higher rates are a poor tool to tackle inflation caused by higher food and energy prices. "The main winners are banks, whose profits have flourished thanks to higher rates," said Fran Boait, co-executive director of campaign group Positive Money.

Persons: Hollie Adams, Bailey, BoE, Rishi Sunak, James Smith, Smith, Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Fran Boait, ING's Smith, David Milliken, William Schomberg, Giles Elgood Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Mortgage, Investors, Reuters, ING, Kroll Institute, Monetary, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Germany

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 5.25% as high inflation persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Expectations for peak BoE rates reached 6.5% on July 11 after data showed record wage growth. But they fell back after a bigger-than-expected decline in consumer price inflation. Still, that inflation rate is nearly four times the BoE's 2% target and double the rate in the United States. Following the end of Silvana Tenreyro's tenure on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, fellow external member Swati Dhingra is likely to be alone in making the case that producer price inflation - rather than wage growth - is a better guide to future consumer price inflation trends. Annual producer price inflation fell to 0.1% in June, its lowest since December 2020, down from a high of nearly 20% last July, which it hit just a few months before CPI peaked at 11.1%.

Persons: BoE, Andrew Goodwin, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Ramsden, Peter Schaffrik, Cathal Kennedy, Silvana Tenreyro's, Swati Dhingra, Megan Greene, Bailey, Huw Pill, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, Reuters, MPC, HSBC, RBC, Committee, Kroll Institute, Tenreyro, Monetary, Thomson Locations: Britain, United States, Germany

"There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process," the MPC said. BoE policymakers had given little indication that a half-point rate increase was under consideration in the run-up to Thursday's announcement. Expectations for BoE rate tightening have surged in recent days - sharply raising the cost of new mortgages - and before Thursday's decision financial markets expected the BoE's Bank Rate to peak at 6% by the end of the year. The central bank also noted that short-dated British government bond yields had risen sharply - pricing in an average level of Bank Rate of 5.5% for the next three years. Last month the central bank forecast that inflation would fall to just over 5% by the end of this year and be below its 2% target in early 2025.

Persons: BoE, Silvana Tenreyro, Swati Dhingra, Andrew Bailey, Jeremy Hunt, Joachim Nagel, Jerome Powell, David Milliken, Suban Abdulla, BRITAIN BOE Organizations: Bank of England, MPC, Reuters, Central, U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Swedish, Norwegian, Britain

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 4.75% as inflation slow to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, Neiss thinks the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates as much as markets have priced in. In a Reuters poll this week, economists predicted the BoE would raise interest rates just twice more, taking rates to a peak of 5% by August or September. The BoE faces three big challenges when assessing how much more rate tightening it needs to do. Fewer households have mortgages and more are on fixed rates - so a key channel for higher interest rates to affect the economy now operates with a delay. "If the Bank of England accelerated policy tightening now, that would smack of panic or a loss of control," McGuire said.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Katharine Neiss, Neiss, Christine Lagarde, Richard McGuire, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Tenreyro, McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Italy, Fed, ECB, Reuters, homebuyers, Rabobank, MPC, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, of England

☆ Bank of England to press on with rate hikes, peak at 5.00% in Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In December 2021 the BoE was one of the first major central banks to draw a line under its ultra-loose pandemic-era monetary policy. It has now raised borrowing costs by 440 basis points across 12 consecutive meetings in modest-sized rate rises. All 64 economists polled June 12-14 said the BoE would add another 25 basis points to Bank Rate on June 22, taking it to 4.75%. A majority of economists surveyed, 52 of 64, said Bank Rate will have peaked by end-August with the median forecast putting it at 5.00%. Although starting later, both the Fed and the European Central Bank have largely been raising rates in greater magnitudes than the BoE.

Persons: BoE, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, Megan Greene, Silvana Tenreyro, Stefan Koopman, Investec's Henderson, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Rabobank, U.S . Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Investec

LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Incoming Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene signalled on Tuesday that the central bank may have a tough job returning British inflation to its 2% target, even if it drops quickly at first from double-digit figures. British inflation fell in April from double digits to 8.7% but this was still jointly the highest reading among Group of Seven countries, along with Italy. Short-dated British government bond yields rose to their highest level since 2008 as Greene spoke. She described inflation expectations in Britain as pretty well-anchored, but said there were lessons from the 1970s on how not to conduct monetary policy. Greene will replace MPC member Silvana Tenreyro, who has voted against the BoE's rate increases in recent months.

Persons: Megan Greene, Greene, Kroll, BoE, Silvana Tenreyro, Kylie MacLellan, Suban Abdulla, Sarah Young, Catherine Evans Organizations: Incoming Bank of, Monetary, parliament's, MPC, Thomson Locations: Italy, Britain, U.S

☆ Bank of England poised to raise rates again to tackle stubborn inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are fully pricing in another quarter-of-a-percentage point increase in Bank Rate, taking the BoE's benchmark rate to 4.5%, when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces the outcome of its May policy meeting at 12 p.m. (1100 GMT). Markets' main focus will be any signals from the BoE about the likelihood of further rises in the months ahead. "We expect that the Bank will only start to reduce rates from 2024 Q2 given resilient growth momentum," Goldman Sachs economist James Moberly told clients this week. "We have to be very alert to any signs of persistent inflationary pressures," Bailey said on March 27, before the latest round of data showed inflation fell less than expected. Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both raised their benchmark borrowing rates by 25 basis points.

☆ Bank of England set for 12th straight interest rate hike, but the outlook remains murky
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. "All this, and updated projections, should be consistent with our call for a final 25bp hike at the June meeting to a terminal rate of 4.75%." Updated forecasts Alongside the rate decision, the MPC will update its forecasts on Thursday. "Thus, while our base case remains for a final hike in June, we see risks that they skip this meeting and deliver the final hike in August," Ardagno's team said. Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Sanjay Raja echoed the projections for a 7-2 split in favor of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point in June.

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 4.5% next week, a possible peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Economists polled by Reuters this week were unanimous that the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise rates to 4.5% next week, in sharp contrast to a poll two weeks earlier which showed only a slim majority expecting a hike. "Previously we had seen the MPC holding Bank Rate at 4.25% but the April labour market and March CPI inflation data were too much to ignore," said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. Only a minority of economists polled by Reuters this week expect the BoE to raise interest rates above 4.5% this year. But investors in interest rate futures - whose views shift more rapidly - see rates reaching 4.75% or 5% by September. "In our view, further tightening beyond May can't be ruled out," said Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics.

☆ Bank of England policymakers consider 12th straight rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is weighing up whether to raise interest rates for the 12th meeting in a row next week as it continues to grapple with an inflation rate that remains above 10%, higher than in any other big, rich economy. Following is a summary of recent comments by members of the Monetary Policy Committee. If they become evident, further monetary tightening would be required. JON CUNLIFFE, DEPUTY GOVERNORHas not commented on monetary policy in recent months. MPC MEMBERS WHO VOTED IN MARCH TO STOP RAISING RATESSILVANA TENREYRO, EXTERNAL MPC MEMBERApril 14: "We need to be patient (to see the effects of past rate increases).

☆ Marketmind: Banks to test soft landing thesis
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets have surged this week on renewed hopes of disinflation, peak interest rates and a soft economic landing - and earnings from Wall Street's biggest banks now test the thesis. Markets will be most focussed on bank guidance on how much the March bank failure will crimp lending going forward. Next month's expected interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve is now expected to be the last and futures see up to 70 basis points of cuts from that point to year-end. And with China's booming trade numbers for last month also suggesting the world economy at large will comfortably skirt recession this year, "soft landing" hopes are back in vogue. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Bank of England's Tenreyro says patience needed to lower inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 14 (Reuters) - Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said past interest rate rises would take time to bear down on inflation, and that it was important not to over-adjust policy while the impact of these past rate rises was feeding through. "We need to be patient," she said at a panel discussion hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington on Friday. Tenreyro voted against a further BoE rate rise last month, arguing that past tightening was more than enough and could push inflation well below target in the medium term. Financial markets see a roughly two in three chance that the BoE will raise its main interest rate next month to 4.5% from 4.25%, which would be its 12th consecutive rate rise since December 2021. Tenreyro said that even if the BoE had perfect foresight, the long lags involved in changes in interest rates would have required it to raise rates sharply in the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic to stop inflation reaching double-digits last year.

☆ BoE might need to cut rates sooner than thought, Tenreyro says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of England will probably need to start cutting interest rates sooner than previously thought after raising them sharply in recent months despite signs of weaker inflation pressures, monetary policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said on Tuesday. Investors currently put a 75% chance on a further quarter-point rate hike by the BoE in May and more than a 50% probability on another such increase by August. "With Bank Rate moving further into restrictive territory, I think a looser stance is needed to meet the inflation target in the medium term," she said. Tenreyro used her speech mostly to explain the BoE's bond-buying and bond-selling programmes. Reporting by David Milliken Writing by William SchombergOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of England raises interest rates again, sees inflation falling
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sounding more upbeat about the outlook for the country's slow pace of economic growth, the BoE's nine rate-setters voted 7-2 in favour of a 25 basis-point increase in Bank Rate to 4.25%. "The MPC will continue to monitor closely any effect on the credit conditions faced by households and businesses, and hence the impact on the macroeconomic and inflation outlook," it said. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its main interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and indicated it was on the verge of pausing further increases. However, it said it expected wages to rise slightly less than it had previously forecast, as inflation expectations fell. The BoE was the first major central bank to start raising rates in December 2021 and until this week had seemed likely to join the Bank of Canada which this month stopped raising borrowing costs.

Despite recent signs that Britain's economy may be holding up better than some economists had feared, Dhingra stuck to her view that the BoE risked harming the economy unnecessarily by raising rates too high. Along with Silvana Tenreyro, Dhingra voted last month to leave interest rates on hold at 3.5%, while the other seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted through an increase to 4%. Dhingra on Wednesday stressed that the risk of too-high interest rates were a larger threat than the risk of embedded inflation pressure. Dhingra said she did not think either wage growth or inflation expectations offered good evidence of persistent domestically generated inflation pressures. "Those who put too much weight on those numbers, I think should have that in mind as well," she said.

"Some further increase in Bank Rate may turn out to be appropriate, but nothing is decided," Bailey added. Bailey said that the economy had developed largely as expected since the BoE raised rates on Feb. 2. "Inflation has been slightly weaker, and activity and wages slightly stronger, though I would emphasise 'slightly' in both cases," he said. Bailey also highlighted how the central bank shifted its language in February, when it said further tightening would be required if there was evidence of more persistent inflation pressures. But two MPC members - Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro - voted in February to pause the rate hikes.

☆ Morning Bid: War and PCE
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith world headlines focussed on first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflationary consequences that pounded world markets last year still smoulder. Curiously, the initial energy shock from the Ukraine war is already less of a problem than the change in pricing behaviour that it seeded - especially in services still distorted by the pandemic, in corporate margin building and rising wage settlements. But it's the pickup and stickiness in underlying "core" prices, excluding energy and food, that is irking the central banks and the Federal Reserve most of all. Alongside another tight U.S. weekly jobs report, markets got another glimpse of those price pressures on Thursday. And increasingly buoyed by the still intense geopolitical fallout from a year of the war in Ukraine, the dollar pushed higher yet again.

LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Bank of England interest rate-setter Catherine Mann said on Thursday that it was too soon to say the risks posed by the surge in inflation last year had eased and that the central bank should continue to raise borrowing costs. The BoE raised interest rates to 4% earlier this month but signalled it was close to ending a run of increases which began in December 2021. She has previously argued in favour of raising borrowing costs sharply in the face of an inflation rate that remains above 10%, even though the BoE has forecast that it will fall sharply this year. Two other members of the Monetary Policy Committee - Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro - voted to pause the rate hikes at this month's meeting. Mann also said that she believed that in normal times, interest rate changes took their full effect faster than the 18-24 months which economists have previously estimated.

Last week, Bailey signalled the tide was turning on inflation, even if it was too soon to declare victory. We have got the largest upside skew in our forecasts that we have ever had on inflation," Bailey said. Haskel aligned himself with Catherine Mann who also sees big upside risks to the BoE's price forecasts. By contrast, Tenreyro said the full force of the BoE's rate hikes over the last year had yet to be felt, with economic momentum already fading. "It's crucial to see it through, that we do enough to address potential upside risks to inflation," he said.

☆ Bank of England's Bailey speaks to lawmakers after hint of rate hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Below are quotes from Bailey and his colleagues in a question-and-answer session with parliament's Treasury Committee. BAILEY ON PERSISTENCE OF INFLATION"We are concerned about persistence (of inflation) and that's why, frankly, we raised interest rates this time... BAILEY ON PAY DEMANDS"What I would urge is that - particularly going forwards because we think inflation is going to fall very rapidly - that is taken into account." CHIEF ECONOMIST HUW PILL ON POLICY TIGHTENING"It's crucial to see it through, that we do enough to address potential upside risks to inflation." Reporting by William Schomberg, Suban Abdulla, and Sarah Young; editing by William JamesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of England's Mann doubles down on backing for rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Gergely Szakacs | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

After hiking interest rates to 4% last week, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled it was close to pausing a run of increases which began in December 2021. Mann, consistently the most hawkish member of the MPC, said the risk of under-tightening policy far outweighed the alternative. "In my view, a tighten-stop-tighten-loosen policy boogie looks too much like fine-tuning to be good monetary policy. "From a risk-management point of view, monetary policy has to lean against these upside biases since wage and price inflation are still so high," she said. At the other end of the MPC spectrum, Dhingra and Tenreyro say over-tightening risked sending Britain's economy into an unnecessarily severe downturn, with the full force of the BoE's rate hikes yet to feed through.

Although Britain saw the same easing of wholesale energy prices, UK industry - by stark contrast - continued to contract this month. More than two thirds of the 42 economists polled by Reuters this month expect another hefty 50 basis point rate rise to 4% next week, while their average 'terminal rate' forecast implies yet another quarter point rise to 4.25% after that. Despite economic funk, the implied peak BoE rate derived from money and swaps markets shows almost another full percentage point of hikes to 4.5% before the Bank calls it quits later this summer. Either way, the eventual outcome leaves the BoE and the pound in something of a half way house. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsUK vs Euro zone economic surprise gapThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks like it's being outed as the weakest link. The primary reason was that two of the nine-person MPC voted to end the Bank's rate rise campaign right away as the recession the Bank thinks is already underway will get entrenched next year. But with the median economist forecast for the Bank's terminal rate somewhere around 4.25%, markets still seem aggressively positioned for a hawkish surprise and the pound may be more vulnerable to that revision as the winter progresses. Significantly, the implied Fed terminal rate edged higher to 4.9% after its policy setpiece on Wednesday - even if is still below the 5.1% the Fed indicated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, expects more rises to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England raised its key interest rate to 3.5% from 3% on Thursday, its ninth rate rise in a row as it tries to speed inflation's return to target after price growth hit a 41-year high in October. The BoE statement did not repeat unusual language from November when it said rates were unlikely to need to rise as far as markets expected. The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates for the fourth time in a row on Thursday, although by less than at its last two meetings. Official figures on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation fell to 10.7% in November from 11.1% in October. That 0.4 percentage point fall in the annual rate was the largest since July 2021.

But only one policymaker, Catherine Mann, wanted to match November's bigger 0.75 percentage point increase - the BoE's largest in more than 30 years - and two MPC members voted to keep rates on hold. Sterling weakened against the U.S. dollar after the BoE's decision, falling to around $1.23, and it also declined against the euro. "While the 50-basis-point increase in the Bank rate was as expected, the extent of the divisions across the committee is an eye-opener," Philip Shaw, an economist with Investec, said. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve also slowed the pace of its rate hikes while pointing to more tightening in 2023. That 0.4 percentage point fall in the annual rate was the largest since July 2021.

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