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☆ Betting markets nailed Trump's decisive win — and it's a good reminder they can be more accurate than polls
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Prediction markets swung in favor of Trump in the weeks before his victory, as polls showed a virtual tie. Proponents point to a number of factors that make betting markets more accurate. That was still hours before major news outlets called the electionPrediction site founders and researchers have long argued that betting markets are more accurate than traditional polling. I think this is the dawn of a new era for prediction markets, and prediction markets are here to stay," Mansour said. If they don't improve, the betting markets could replace them entirely, he predicted.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, They've, Tarek Mansour, Mansour, Harry Crane, Northwestern University's Thomas Miller, Miller, Biden, Harris, Crane, Davide Accomazzo Organizations: Trump, Service, Rutgers University, BI, Northwestern, Pepperdine Graziadio Business

☆ The surge in election betting has catapulted Kalshi and Polymarket to the top of Apple's App Store
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Kalshi and Polymarket catapulted to the most downloaded free apps on the Apple App Store on Tuesday. Kalshi and Polymarket show Trump favored to win the Electoral College, with Harris expected to win the popular vote. AdvertisementKalshi and Polymarket zoomed to the top of the Apple App Store on Tuesday amid a surge in election betting in the waning days of the 2024 US presidential campaign. Kalshi's ascent in the Apple App Store rankings represented a key goal being reached for the company's CEO, Tarek Mansour. 1 for the entire App Store by Election Day, so the demand curve truly is exponential," Mansour told CNBC last month.

Persons: Kalshi, Trump, Harris, —, Tarek Mansour, we're gunning, Mansour, Polymarket, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Apple, Electoral, Service, CNBC, Electoral College Locations: Polymarket

Election bets were approved legally just weeks ago, as the 2024 race headed into its home sprint. The ongoing legal wrangling could still lead to a shutdown of U.S. election betting markets, but not until after the 2024 vote. The CFTC permits only U.S. residents to use the newly opened election betting markets, meaning many bettors on the platforms are also potential voters. Nonetheless, Adam Cochran, founder of venture capital fund Cinneamhain Ventures, says he worries about how voters perceive election betting odds. Mansour acknowledged it’s a “fair concern” that the general public might mistakenly see betting odds as the size of a candidate’s lead.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, ” Robinhood, Rostin Behnam, Kalshi, John Aristotle Phillips, Phillips, ”, multibillionaire Trump, Elon Musk, “, ” Harris, Polymarket, bettors, Trump, Harris, Musk, Tarek Mansour, ” Mansour, Adam Cochran, ” Cochran, Mansour, it’s, There’s Organizations: Interactive, Futures Trading Commission, Republican, Democratic, Overseas, Victoria University of Wellington, NBC, Trump, Street Journal, Cinneamhain Ventures Locations: U.S, New Zealand, America

☆ The election-betting market has exploded in popularity this presidential cycle
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Betting markets are booming ahead of the US Presidential election. Kalshi has attracted $100M in election bets this month and is the top free finance app in Apple's app store. Robinhood is getting in on the action, announcing its own election betting platform on Monday. Earlier this month, a US federal appeals court cleared Kalshi to open its election betting platform for US citizens. Interactive Brokers also launched a slew of election betting contracts earlier this month following the court decision to allow Kalshi to operate.

Persons: Kalshi, —, we're gunning, Tarek Mansour, it's, Donald Trump, Mansour, TikTok Organizations: Service, Apple, PayPal, CNBC, Interactive, Kalshi

☆ Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on the election betting market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on the election betting marketKalshi CEO Tarek Mansour joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the betting market for the 2024 presidential election, election betting competition, and more.

Persons: Tarek Mansour

☆ Election prediction markets are in a sprint to prove themselves as forecasting and investing tools
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

"Things were going okay before the election contracts, but since we put them on the platform there's been a lot more interest," Sanders said. The election contracts on each site are binary, and they pay out $1 if the correct outcome is chosen and $0 for the incorrect outcome. A fifth arena, Polymarket, is a blockchain-based prediction platform that is not open to U.S. customers. If they prove to be accurate over time, the prediction markets may also serve non-traders such as consultants and fundraisers who want to glean more insight into the election. Concerns More ominously, critics of the election markets have raised alarm that they could be moved by one or two big traders for possibly nefarious purposes.

Persons: politicos, Kalshi, Steven Sanders, Sanders, John Phillips, Phillips, Tarek Mansour, Bob Elliott, Ray, Elliott, Polymarket, Nikki Haley, Michelle Obama, Matt Thompson, Thompson, Koleman Strumpf, Cantrell Dumas, Dumas, PredictIt's Phillips, Strumpf, Mansour, We've Organizations: Wall, Interactive, Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Kalshi, Funds, Bridgewater Associates, South Carolina Gov, Republican, Little Harbor Advisors, Wake Forest University, Better, CNBC, Wake Locations: Iowa, Winston, Salem, N.C, Susquehanna

☆ Election betting: Appeals court fast-tracks CFTC challenge to Kalshi political bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Dan Mangan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A federal appeals court has fast-tracked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's case challenging the right of the event exchange Kalshi to offer U.S. political election contracts. Kalshi touted its presidential election contracts on electronic signs in New York City's Times Square over the weekend. The CFTC told the appellate court that election contracts "are susceptible to market manipulation" and also pose a risk to election integrity or how the public views the integrity of elections. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, in a statement, said his company is "confident" that the law allows election contracts. As of Monday, Kalshi had booked more than $7 million in contracts on the presidential election outcome.

Persons: Kalshi, Tarek Mansour, Mansour, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Long, Fitness Center, Interactive, U.S, Senate, New York City's, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, CFTC, Washington , D.C Locations: Virginia's, Arlington , Virginia, New York, U.S, Washington ,

☆ Kalshi expands Trump, Harris election bet options, adds Senate races, CFTC complains
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Dan Mangan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Kalshi wagers on the presidential race outcomes were split 50-50, roughly reflecting national polling on the contest. The new contracts were added to Kalshi's platform within days of a favorable federal appeals court ruling for the company on Oct 2. Even more political races could soon become available for betting with Kalshi contracts, the CFTC said, citing contract terms published on the exchange's web site. But the commission argues that Kalshi's contracts might cast doubt on the integrity of elections. The appeals court initially blocked that judge's ruling from taking effect, which meant Kalshi could not offer any political contracts.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Kalshi, KalshiEx, It's, there's, Tarek Mansour, Mansour, Patricia Millett Organizations: White, Electoral, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, U.S ., Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, CNBC Locations: Washington ,

☆ Kalshi resumes taking bets on U.S. election after appeals court lifts freeze
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKalshi resumes taking bets on U.S. election after appeals court lifts freezeKalshi founder and CEO Tarek Mansour joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss news of the company taking bets on the outcome of the 2024 congressional election after a federal appeals court lifted a legal freeze on such contracts, state of the betting market on the 2024 election, and more.

Persons: Tarek Mansour

☆ Federal appeals court allows prediction market Kalshi to offer US election betting
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Piper Hudspeth Blackburn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —A federal appeals court in Washington, DC, on Wednesday allowed a prediction market to offer election betting, denying a government watchdog’s request to halt a ruling that made way for legal political gambling in the United States. It is unclear whether the New York-based startup will launch more election markets. “US presidential election markets are legal. Because the sources of information that election markets absorb can be “opaque and unreliable,” like polls with undisclosed methodologies or fake news reports, Schwartz suggested that they can be uniquely susceptible to manipulation. While the legal dispute with Kalshi plays out, the CFTC has also embarked on a broader clampdown on events-based betting.

Persons: ” “, Patricia Millett, ”, ” Kalshi, Jia Cobb, Tarek Mansour, X, Stephen Hall, ‘ deepfakes, Kalshi, “, Rob Schwartz, Schwartz, Yaakov Roth, ” Roth, Rostin Behnam Organizations: CNN, Senate, Futures Trading Commission, DC, Appeals, US, DC Circuit, Kalshi, CFTC, Better Locations: Washington ,, United States, New York, Washington, “

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