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Signs of a slowing U.S. economy sowed panic among investors on Monday, with a sell-off in markets that began last week turning into a global rout. The moves were a sharp reversal in major stock markets, which for much of the past year have risen to new heights, propelled by optimism about cooling inflation, solid labor markets and the promise of artificial intelligence technology. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index fell more than 10 percent at one point. Japanese stocks have been on a tear for more than a year, fueled by a weak Japanese yen. Adding to the pressure, foreign investors have started selling off positions in Japanese stocks over the last few weeks.

Persons: ”, Andrew Brenner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jordi Basco Carrera, ’, Basco Carrera, Jitters, Jesper Koll, Koll, John Liu, Melissa Eddy Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, National Alliance Securities, Equity, Technology, Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, Intel, Allianz, Monex, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange Locations: Asia, Europe, Americas, Japan, U.S, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, Hong Kong, China, Stocks, India, Netherlands, Switzerland, New York, Munich, “, New, Seoul, Berlin

For now, Fed officials think the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness suggest the labor market is returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. But while that approach is cautious when it comes to price increases, it could prove to be risky when it comes to the labor market. But that chain reaction can come at a serious cost to the job market. For now, Fed officials think that the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness signal that labor market conditions are returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. Fed rate moves take time to work, so if the central bank only starts to cut borrowing costs when the job market is showing serious signs of strain, it could be moving too late.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Neil Dutta, ” Mr, “, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Macro Locations: joblessness, “

☆ Productivity Surges 2.3%, Beating Forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

A highly productive economy generally means businesses and workers are operating efficiently, making more money in fewer hours. In the second quarter, production was up 3.3 percent, while hours worked rose 1 percent. Productivity, at a basic level, is calculated as a simple ratio: the total amount of output an economy produces per hour worked by its labor force. No, but the impact on productivity data in those quarters was deeply negative. For now, most analysts say artificial intelligence is having only a nascent influence on overall productivity.

Persons: “, Skanda Amarnath, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, U.S Locations: U.S, Europe, America, A.I

☆ Michigan Court Clears Way for Higher Wages, Overruling Legislature
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Michigan Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday that legislators had unconstitutionally subverted a voter-sponsored proposal to raise the state’s minimum wage. As a result of the 4-to-3 ruling, labor groups expect Michigan’s hourly minimum wage of $10.33 to increase by at least $2 in February, once the state treasurer calculates inflation adjustments. There will be subsequent cost-of-living increases through 2029. Labor activists and union groups celebrated the Michigan court’s decision. “We have finally prevailed over the corporate interests who tried everything they could to prevent all workers, including restaurant workers, from being paid a full, fair wage with tips on top,” Saru Jayaraman, the president of One Fair Wage, a national nonprofit organizing group, said in a statement.

Persons: Saru Jayaraman Organizations: Michigan Supreme, Labor Locations: Michigan

☆ Seeking Your First Job After College? Share Your Story.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But the job market is not as hot as it used to be, and younger applicants, with or without college degrees, are feeling the pinch. Hiring projections for this year’s college graduating class are below last year’s, and the downturn is particularly notable in fields like finance, insurance, marketing and real estate. I cover economics at The New York Times, and I would like to hear from recent college graduates and other young job seekers, as well as hiring managers, about what the job market has looked like to them this year. And we won’t share your contact information outside the Times newsroom. If you prefer to share tips or thoughts confidentially, you can do so here.

Persons: We’ll Organizations: The New York Times, Times

☆ White House Pushes Rent Cap, Reigniting Debate on Housing Policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When the Biden administration laid out a suite of plans this week to address housing affordability, it added a bold update to previous proposals — and sent the housing industry and the economics world buzzing. The White House called on Congress to pass legislation giving “corporate landlords” — defined by the White House as those with over 50 rental units — a choice to cap annual rent increases on existing units at 5 percent annually or lose federal tax breaks based on property depreciation. The proposal is expected to go largely unaddressed this year, with Congress in campaign mode. Tenant organizations and progressive leaders generally allied with the administration’s economic team cheered the news. Yet a range of economists, Wall Street analysts, real estate groups and landlord associations responded with forceful critiques, assailing the limits as counterproductive.

Persons: Biden, ” — Organizations: White, Wall Street

☆ Live Updates: U.S. Jobs Report Expected to Show Slower Pace of Hiring
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

PinnedThe monthly employment report on Friday is projected to show that employers added 190,000 jobs in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That would be a downshift from the 272,000 jobs added in May. The economy remains solid overall, with unemployment still low, the stock market hovering at new highs and wage growth outpacing inflation. But many economists say the labor market is in a sensitive place. Interest rates, which the Federal Reserve has driven significantly higher since 2022, have remained elevated longer than many businesses had hoped.

Persons: —, Jerome H, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten Organizations: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, Oxford Locations: U.S

☆ Price Pendulum Swings Back to Discounts, Within Limits
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | Jordyn Holman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

U.S. consumers, fatigued by a three-year bout of inflation, want lower prices. Target recently announced modest price cuts on 5,000 food products and household goods. Craft and furniture stores like Michael’s and Ikea have also said they will drop prices on popular items. A broader range of companies have indicated on quarterly earnings calls that they plan to slow price increases and seek other ways to expand profitability. But regardless of motivation, a shift is in motion that may help ease inflation in the coming months.

Organizations: Walgreens, Ikea

☆ What Forecasters Say About Interest Rates (and Why They Disagree)
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

How soon is soon? As the year started, there was a widespread view among economists and on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates in the first half of the year. It was called “the pivot party,” and everyone was invited. And it seems the pivot party has been canceled. But some experts argue that it has only been postponed, leaving forecasters divided about what the rest of the year will bring.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Financial

☆ Why Better Times (and Big Raises) Haven’t Cured the Inflation Hangover
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Tucked at a corner table inside a Barnes & Noble cafe in Logan Town Centre, a sprawling exurban shopping complex in Blair County, he tapped away at two laptops. His work PC was open with notes on his clients: local seniors in need of at-home health care and living assistance, whom he serves as a registered nurse. On his sleeker, personal laptop he eyed some coursework for the master’s degree in nursing he’s finishing so he can work as a supervisor soon. Shortly after becoming certified, he pushed through long days in a hospital during the height of the Covid pandemic at a salary of $40,000. Today, he has what he calls “the best nursing job pay-wise I’ve ever had,” at $85,000.

Persons: Darren Mattern, “ Organizations: Barnes, Logan Town Centre Locations: Pennsylvania, Noble, Logan Town, Blair County

☆ Is the Boom-and-Bust Business Cycle Dead?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

For much of modern history, even the richest nations have been subject to big perennial upswings and crashes in commercial activity almost as fixed as the four seasons. Hiring and investment crest and fall into a contraction as consumer confidence wanes and spending craters. Sales fall, bankruptcies and unemployment rise. But a brigade of academic economists and prominent voices on Wall Street are asking if the unruly business cycle they learned in school, and witnessed in practice, has fundamentally morphed into a tamer beast. Rick Rieder, who manages about $3 trillion in assets at the investment firm BlackRock, is one of them.

Persons: Rick Rieder Locations: BlackRock

☆ U.S. Employers Added 303,000 Jobs in 39th Straight Month of Growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Another month, another burst of better-than-expected job gains. Employers added 303,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 percent in February. Expectations of a recession among experts, once widespread, are now increasingly rare. It was the 39th straight month of job growth. And employment levels are now more than three million greater than forecast by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office just before the pandemic shock.

Organizations: Labor Department Locations: U.S

☆ Live Updates: U.S. Job Growth Expected to Remain Robust
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

PinnedWith the year’s first quarter in the books, the Labor Department will release its latest update on the labor market Friday morning. Economists expect the March report to show that over 200,000 jobs were added for the fourth consecutive month, according to a Bloomberg survey. The report is expected to show that the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent in February. It’s a remarkable change from a year ago, when top financial analysts were largely convinced that a recession was only months away. Nevertheless, there is “still absolutely nothing happening” in key measures of long-run jobless claims, said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, which studies the labor market.

Persons: ”, Joe Davis, Guy Berger Organizations: Labor Department, Bloomberg, Federal, Vanguard, Federal Reserve, Glass Institute Locations: U.S

☆ Auto Insurance Spike Hampers the Inflation Fight
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Job growth, wage growth and business growth are all lively, and inflation has steeply fallen from its 2022 highs. One reason may be sticker shock from some highly visible prices — even as overall inflation has calmed. The cost of car insurance is a key example. Motor vehicle insurance rose 1.4 percent on a monthly basis in January alone and has risen 20.6 percent over the past year, the largest jump since 1976. According to a recent private-sector estimate, the average annual premium for full-coverage car insurance in 2024 is $2,543, compared with $2,014 in 2023 and $1,771 in 2022.

Locations: dampening

☆ Can America Turn a Productivity Boomlet Into a Boom?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Kevin Rezvani came of age in kitchens: spending summers at his grandfather’s bakery in Japan, doing work-study in his college cafeteria and working for years as a line cook at mid-tier restaurants, along with some stints in fast food. Too many ventures, he says, are not profitable enough to justify all the work hours needed from managers and employees to stay afloat, much less grow. In other words, they fall short on productivity. “There’s a very fine line between doing OK, and doing well in this business,” said Mr. Rezvani, now 36. “And if you’re doing OK, it’s not worth your time.”

Persons: Kevin Rezvani, Rezvani, ” Locations: Japan

Maybe I won’t set up that factory. These companies — the small, private enterprises that are responsible for roughly half the private-sector employment in the country — are already having to pay much more for debt. They fund their operations using cash from sales, business credit cards and private loans — all of which are generally more expensive options for financing payrolls and operations. Now, they’re paying 10 percent interest on short-term loans. Hiring within these firms has slowed, and their credit card balances are higher than they were before the pandemic, even as spending has slowed.

Persons: Ms, Sheth Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business, Bank of America Locations: ”

☆ U.S. employers added 150,000 jobs last month, falling short of forecasts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

“This is mildly concerning but for now, these are still strong numbers,” said Sonu Varghese, chief market strategist at Carson Group, an asset management firm. The October numbers may have been held down because the survey was taken during major work stoppages — notably the strikes by the United Automobile Workers and related layoffs. has reached tentative contract agreements with the three major U.S. automakers and told striking members to return to their jobs. Some 96,000 people reported being out of work because of a strike or labor dispute in October, the most since 1997. But she added that unemployment would have to tick higher over a longer horizon for it to be clear that recession risks were heightened.

Persons: ”, Sonu Varghese, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Carson Group, United Automobile Workers, Federal Reserve

The report is also expected to find that gains in average hourly earnings were solid but decelerated to 4 percent from a year earlier. The September report showed an unexpectedly strong gain of 336,000 jobs — a figure that will be revised Friday — and a year-over-year wage gain of 4.2 percent. has reached tentative contract agreements with the three major U.S. automakers and told striking members to return to their jobs. “We expect the October employment report to show a large deceleration in job growth, although the moderation will be overstated by the impact of striking autoworkers,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note. “Excluding those workers,” she added, “job growth will still be relatively robust, although narrowly based.”Since early 2022, the benchmark interest rate set by the Federal Reserve has surged from near zero to more than 5 percent.

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome H, Powell, Mr, “, ” Organizations: Bloomberg, United Automobile Workers, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome H, Powell, Mr, “, ” Organizations: Bloomberg, United Automobile Workers, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve

☆ Strong U.S. Job Growth Shows Economy Is Defying Challenges
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

In a sign of continued economic stamina, American payrolls grew by 336,000 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said on Friday. The increase, almost double what economists had forecast, confirmed the labor market’s vitality and the overall hardiness of an economy facing challenges from a variety of forces. It was the 33rd consecutive month of job growth, and the increase was the biggest since January. The unemployment rate, based on a survey of households, was steady at 3.8 percent. It has been below 4 percent for nearly two years, a stretch not achieved since the late 1960s.

Persons: payrolls Organizations: Labor Department

☆ UPS drivers' $170,000 pay package has some Amazon drivers thinking it's time to quit. They make about $18 an hour.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( Jordan Hart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jokes and memes are being shared around their facility about UPS drivers winning a $170,000 deal. The pay gap between UPS drivers and Amazon drivers has even inspired memes on Reddit. The memes refer to Amazon's contracted drivers as "broke" compared to UPS drivers who make six figures, including benefits, in some areas. Two Arkansas-based drivers who work for an Amazon Delivery Service Partner, or DSP, told Insider the joke is on them. Both said they encounter UPS drivers and realize the Amazon drivers are delivering "twice as many" packages.

Persons: Amazon's, Jordan Talmon, Talmon, Simone Griffin, Hunter Deaver, who's, Deaver, Griffin Organizations: DSP, Service, UPS, Teamsters, Amazon Locations: Arkansas, Wall, Silicon, California

☆ What C.E.O.s Mean When They Talk About ‘Moats’
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

What C.E.O.s Mean When They Talk About ‘Moats’Nvidia has been hailed by Wall Street for the “moat” it built around its chips to power A.I. Starbucks is trying to figure out how to retain its moat in China. So what’s all this talk of moats, and why do executives use the word so much? Here’s what to know →

Organizations: Nvidia, Wall Street Locations: China

☆ Wrestling With Inequality, Some Conservatives Redraw Economic Blueprint
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

More Republicans are coming to the view that economic inequality, or a lack of social mobility, is a problem in the United States — and that more can be done to enable families to attain or regain a middle-class life. Though discussions about inequality tend to be most visible among liberals, about four in 10 Republican or Republican-leaning adults think there is too much economic inequality in the country, according to a Pew Research survey. And among Republicans making less than about $40,000 a year who see too much economic inequality, 63 percent agree that the economic system “requires major changes” to address it. “I don’t think just having a bigger government is a solution to a lot of these problems,” said Inez Stepman, a senior policy analyst at the Independent Women’s Forum and a fellow with the Claremont Institute, a conservative think tank widely credited with giving Trumpism an intellectual framework. “But I do think that we could stand to think a little bit more on the right about how to make that 1950s middle-class life possible for people.”

Persons: ”, Inez Stepman Organizations: United States —, Republican, Pew Research, Independent Women’s, Claremont Institute Locations: United States

In the recreation-fueled, amenity-rich economy of Colorado’s Rocky Mountain region, there are two peak seasons: summer, with its rafting, hiking, fishing and biking, and the cold months filled with skiing and other winter activities. And then there is “mud season” — a liminal moment in spring when the alpine environment, slowly then suddenly, begins to thaw and only a trickle of tourists linger. It’s a period that workers in other places might bemoan. But for much of the financially stretched work force serving the assemblage of idyllic mountain towns across the state, a brief drop-off in business this spring was a respite. During a slow shift on a 51-degree day at the Blue Stag Saloon — a nook on Main Street in the vacation hub of Breckenridge — Michelle Badger, a veteran server, half-joked with her co-workers that “this winter was hell.”

Persons: Breckenridge — Michelle Badger Locations: Breckenridge

☆ Casino Mogul Steve Wynn Reaches Settlement Over Sexual Misconduct Claims
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Steve Wynn, the longtime Las Vegas casino magnate and major Republican donor, has agreed to pay Nevada a $10 million fine and to step back from its gambling industry in a settlement related to employee allegations of sexual misconduct, closing his yearslong battle with the state’s gambling regulators. Mr. Wynn, 81, who did not admit wrongdoing in the settlement, agreed to be “entirely removed from any direct or indirect involvement” with financing, advertising and consulting in the state. The agreement appears to end regulators’ investigations into Mr. Wynn’s conduct, though he could face additional fines if he violates its terms. Mr. Wynn resigned as chairman and chief executive of his casino empire, Wynn Resorts, in 2018, when the misconduct allegations began to emerge more publicly. Amid the fallout, he divested company shares and stepped down from his position as finance chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Persons: Steve Wynn, Wynn, Wynn’s Organizations: Las, Nevada, Nevada Gaming Commission, Wynn Resorts, Republican National Committee Locations: Las Vegas

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