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The rise in India's income and wealth inequality is not a result of the poor getting poorer, Sumedha Dasgupta, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) flags. India's income gap (which is the difference in wages earned between different demographic) comes alongside a worsening wealth divide too. Instead, the phenomenon comes as the "rich are getting much richer at a faster rate," she told CNBC's Inside India. India's 3 household groupsA more pressing issue brought on by India's wealth and income divide is the emergence of different categories of households with distinct standards of living. Unequal education opportunitiesThe EIU's Dasgupta attributes India's vicious wealth and income gap cycle in large part to mismatched education opportunities.
Persons: Knight Frank, Dasgupta, CNBC's, Shumita Deveshwar, Deveshwar Organizations: Economist Intelligence Unit, Blume Ventures, Oxfam, Private, Department of School Education, Global Commons Alliance, TS Lombard Locations: India, United States, Brazil, South Africa, Venture, Saharan Africa, Indian
The closest presidential races have brought stronger relief rallies, according to data from past election cycles analyzed by CNBC. The S&P 500 has gone on to gain around 1.5% on average between Election Day and the end of that respective calendar year, data from every presidential matchup since 1980 shows. That average performance shoots up to 3.9% when looking at just the tightest races from that period. NBC News' latest polling shows the contest is neck-and-neck between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris as Americans head to the polls on Tuesday. "Very close elections, like the one we have currently, are usually greeted with a market bounce, irrespective of who wins or the policies they introduce," TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said in a note to clients.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Dario Perkins Organizations: CNBC, NBC
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina property market is going to be a problem for next 10 years or so, economist saysFreya Beamish, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses China markets after a briefing from the country's housing ministry disappointed investors, pulling Hong Kong-listed property stocks lower.
Persons: Freya Beamish Organizations: China, TS Lombard Locations: China, Hong Kong
China's export growth slowed in September, raising concerns about future economic stability. China may delay further economic stimulus ahead of the US election, anticipating potential tariffs. The market had expected China's exports to grow 6% on-year in September, according to a Reuters' poll of economists. AdvertisementThe timing of the decline in China's exports also came at an untimely moment — weeks before the US presidential election. Beijing has rejected this view, saying the West's accusations are protectionist and aimed at containing China's economic growth.
Persons: , hasn't, Lu Daliang, Donald Trump, Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, Green Organizations: Service, Reuters, EU, Administration of Customs, Nomura, BofA Securities, Republican, Authorities, Trump, US Locations: China, Japan, South Korea, Beijing
However, the economy and the job market may be too strong to warrant steep rate cuts in the near term. "September's strong employment report and upward revisions in July and August murdered the hard-landing scenario," Yardeni said in a note to clients this week. The 30-year mortgage rate has crept higher, not lower, since the Fed delivered its big rate cut. As the economy reaccelerates, inflation could become a problem again, solidifying a higher for longer interest rate outlook that many had abandoned after the Fed's jumbo rate cut last month. Advertisement"With benchmark interest rates coming down, most prospective borrowers don't feel relieved of high borrowing costs," according to Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate.
Persons: , Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Megan Horneman, Steven Blitz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Yardeni, Fed, Verdence Capital Advisors, TS Lombard, Philadelphia Fed
AdvertisementVarious Chinese ministries and local governments are likely to roll out a variety of stimulus measures in the coming weeks — useful or not, they added. China still has a massive property problem that's unlikely to be solved with one set of stimulus measures. China's stock markets, which are dominated by retail investors fixated on social media, are blistering hot. China's stock markets are closed for weeklong National Day public holidays and are set to reopen on Tuesday. "Stimulus measures could add more fuel to the fire when stock markets are already heated.
Persons: , it's, Nomura, Freya Beamish, Rory Green, Ben Harburg, Larry Hu, Hu, Magdalena Polan, Polan, China's Organizations: Service, Global Data.TS, , MSA, Macquarie Group, CSI, Nomura Locations: China, Saudi Arabia, Beijing, Harburg
Oil prices surged after Iran attacked Israel, fueling the sell-off. AdvertisementUS stocks dropped Wednesday as traders continued to monitor escalating tensions in the Middle East. Major indexes slumped in early morning trading while oil prices spiked for a second day, with the international crude benchmark up 2.7% to $75.63 a barrel. Investors sold stocks Tuesday after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel early Tuesday, causing some to flee to risk-off assets. "The stock market impact of geopolitical tensions largely centers around oil prices, and as long as oil prices remain below $100 per barrel and corporate profits remain strong, that is supportive of higher stock prices."
Persons: , Mary Ann Bartels, Bartels Organizations: Service, Lombard, Sanctuary Wealth, Fed Locations: Iran, Israel
China's aggressive stimulus measures have sparked a significant stock market rally. Still, traders, investors, and speculators have sent China's stock market to its best month in nearly a decade, signaling that the market players think that Beijing's moves are a "bazooka." The People's Bank of China's stock market stimulus was unusual. An active stock market and improved investor confidence will improve expectations for economic development," the media outlet wrote. Mainland China's stock markets will also be closed from Tuesday to Monday.
Persons: , Vishnu, Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Criss Wang, Data.TS, Varathan Organizations: Service, CSI, People's Bank, China Securities Journal, Chinese Communist Party, Hong Kong Stock Exchange Locations: China, Asia, Japan
China's stock markets surged this week, marking the best weekly performance since late 2008. AdvertisementChina's stock markets closed sharply higher Friday, notching their best week in 16 years as investors joined the rally party. The stock market party overwhelmed tech systemsThe stock market party got too hot to handle. AdvertisementFurthermore, the US Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates, which has historically benefited Chinese markets, they added. So even if Beijing's stimulus isn't enough for China's economy, a liquidity or leverage-driven market rally could still be "very powerful," they wrote.
Persons: , Vishnu Varathan, Hong, Hao Hong, Pan Gongsheng, Data.TS, Freya Beamish, Rory Green Organizations: Service, Grow Investment, Shanghai Stock Exchange, of America, Bank of America, US Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China Locations: China, Beijing, Asia, Japan, Shanghai, India
The measures were significant because Beijing has been holding back on a "bazooka" stimulus even though China's economy has been struggling to stage a convincing recovery post-pandemic. To be sure, this is not the first attempt China has made at boosting its economy in the past few years. However, Beijing's display of resolve also triggered market speculation that it's alarmed and panicked over the state of its economy, which is facing multiple challenges. Related storiesNotably, even on the heels of China's big stimulus announcement, most analysts also think Beijing still needs to do more to boost China's economy, particularly in boosting gloomy domestic demand. "Onshore stocks are a policy- and momentum-driven market, and policy signals don't get much clearer than this," they wrote.
Persons: , Pan Gongsheng, Andrew Rocco, Rocco didn't, Pan, Freya Beamish, Rory Green, Anthony Sassine, Sassine, Rocco, macroeconomy, China's CSI300 Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Business, Lombard, Investors, Zacks Investment Research, Global Data.TS, Yahoo Finance, Data.TS Locations: China, Beijing, Swiss, London
An acceleration of US economic growth is a major risk for investors, says economist Steven Blitz. Blitz warns a "no landing" scenario could lead to inflation rebound and Fed rate hikes. The fed funds rate should be around 4% due to economic resilience, Blitz advises. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAn acceleration of economic growth in the US might be the stock market's worst-case scenario, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz.
Persons: Steven Blitz, , Blitz Organizations: Service, GlobalData, Federal Reserve
The Fed looks like it's following the same path it did in 1995, according to TS Lombard. It's also great news for stocks, as the S&P 500 more than doubled in value that decade. AdvertisementThe Fed is following a 30-year-old playbook with its interest rate moves — and that's good news for the US economy, according to TS Lombard. Stocks soared a day after the big rate cut. Despite wobbling in the hours after the Fed's rate move, the major indexes hit fresh records in Thursday trades.
Persons: It's, , Dario Perkins, Perkins, Stocks Organizations: TS Lombard, Service, Fed, American Institute for Economic Research, Cleveland Fed
This report is from this week's CNBC's "Inside India" newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. Its intent was clear: to develop India's manufacturing capabilities in sectors like automotives, electronics, pharmaceuticals and aerospace while creating opportunities for locals. India's manufacturing sector has seen "remarkable" growth says, Samir Kapadia, founder and CEO of B2B marketplace India Index. "These infrastructural shifts in India have improved connectivity within and outside the country putting India at a very different playing field than it was 10 years ago when 'Make in India' started," Kapadia told CNBC's Inside India. India vs. other emerging marketsWhile India looks to poach China's manufacturing share, other countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Mexico are also stiff competitors.
Persons: Wistron, Narendra Modi, Foxconn, Samir Kapadia, Kapadia, CNBC's, U.S . Franklin Templeton's Yi Ping Liao, Liao, Deveshwar Organizations: Tata Group, Indian, Apple, Dixon Technologies, Kia, Divi's, Novartis, GSK, Merck, China, U.S ., TS Lombard, Inside, Mutual Fund Locations: India, China, Silicon Valley, Bengaluru, Kolar, Doddaballapura, Foxconn, Kia India, Anantapur —, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Mexico, Asia, Inside India, Brazil
How Fed rate cuts affect the global economy
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Carlos Waters | In Carloswaters | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions can influence the trajectory of the U.S. economy. Changes to the Fed's interest rate can influence the cost of loan products such as mortgages and the value of cash, bonds and stocks. The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rate comes after months of shaky labor market data in the U.S. Fed decisions can also impact foreign exchange markets given their effect on the value of U.S. dollars, the global reserve currency. Economists at the Fed write that China's central bank has managed the value of the yuan to help the country achieve its goals on trade.
Persons: Gregory Daco, Federal Reserve Board they're, Reena Aggarwal, they've, Freya Beamish, Beamish Organizations: Federal, Market Committee, International Monetary Fund, U.S, European Central Bank, IMF, Federal Reserve Board, Georgetown, Psaros, CNBC, People's Bank of, Federal Reserve, TS Lombard Locations: U.S, EY, United States, People's Bank of China, China
Kevin Dietsch | Getty ImagesA flurry of major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings this week, with investors bracing for interest rate moves in either direction. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to join others around the world in starting its own rate-cutting cycle. Elsewhere, Brazil's central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting across Tuesday and Wednesday. Traffic outside the Central Bank of Brazil headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil, on Monday, June 17, 2024. The central bank delivered its first interest rate cut in more than four years at the start of August.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Kevin Dietsch, John Bilton, CNBC's, Bilton, David Volpe, Volpe, 25bps, Wilson Ferrarezi, BOE, Ruben Segura Cayuela Organizations: Federal Reserves, Washington , D.C, Federal, Traders, The Bank of England, Norway's Norges Bank, South Africa's, Bank, Bank of Japan, Morgan Asset Management, European, Bank of England, ECB, Emerald Asset Management, Banco Central, TS Lombard, Central Bank of, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Brazil's, Brazil, Central Bank of Brazil, Brasilia, South Africa, Norway, Japan
China may be delaying economic stimulus ahead of the US election, economist Rory Green says. Beijing is cautious due to potential Trump tariffs, which could impact growth in 2025. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementChina may be holding back on economic stimulus ahead of the US presidential election, an economist wrote on Thursday. This is because Beijing is keeping its powder dry in case Republican candidate Donald Trump wins in the November polls, wrote Rory Green, the chief China economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard.
Persons: Rory Green, , Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: Service, GlobalData.TS Lombard, Business Locations: China, Beijing, GlobalData.TS
watch nowEconomists have said it is difficult to accurately assess the scale of the yen carry trade, with estimates varying widely. Some analysts, using Japan's foreign portfolio investments, say the yen carry trade could total as much as $4 trillion, Reuters reported. "The real Japan strategy is not just a quick carry trade, borrowing at close to zero interest rates in Japan and investing in high yield assets. Analysts at Barclays said systematic selling pressure does not appear to have been exhausted yet and it's "too early" to call an all-clear to the carry trades unwind. We expect volatility to remain elevated, which should continue to hurt EM carry trades," the analysts at Barclays said in a research note published Sunday.
Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Richard Kelly, he'd, Kelly, CNBC's, Nogi, Jesper Koll, Koll, What's Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Afp, Getty, Bank of Japan, TD Securities, Reuters, TS Lombard, Bank of, The Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Monex, Barclays Locations: Tokyo, Japan, MEX, Brazil, Bank of Japan, U.S
Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, , Andrew Hollenhorst, , ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, , “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko
Rapid interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could make matters worse for the global "carry trade" unwind, according to economists at TS Lombard. The warning comes as market participants seek to aggressively roll back on carry trades following a dramatic global sell-off in risk assets. Carry trades refer to operations wherein an investor borrows in a currency with low interest rates, such as the Japanese yen, and reinvests the proceeds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. The readings led investors to worry that the Federal Reserve may be behind the curve in cutting interest rates to fend off a recession. But this would exacerbate any carry trade unwind," economists at TS Lombard said in a research note published Monday.
Persons: paring Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Stock, Federal Locations: Europe
A weaker-than-expected July jobs report on Friday officially triggered the Sahm rule. "We are not in a recession now — contrary the historical signal from the Sahm rule — but the momentum is in that direction," Sahm told CNBC by email on Friday. That frankly is not good enough, we can do better than avoiding a recession," Sahm told CNBC's "The Exchange." Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. In mid-June, Sahm told CNBC that the U.S. central bank risked tipping the economy into contraction by not cutting interest rates sooner.
Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, , we're, CNBC's, Dario Perkins, Perkins, Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik Organizations: Federal, CNBC, U.S . Federal, New Century Advisors, New, Lombard, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve, Getty, U.S Locations: U.S, Washington , DC
Read previewRussia is stepping up sanctions-evading measures to keep its international trade flowing. Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said the first transactions are expected by the end of this year, per Reuters. An existing ban on crypto payments in Russia remains, but Moscow's greenlighting crypto for international trade marks a significant shift. Russia could be eying a digital-currency-based settlement systemIt isn't clear how Russia's crypto and digital currency regimes will shape up. Even China, which has one of the world's most advanced digital currencies, relies on a "two-tier" system involving banks as wallet-holding agents.
Persons: , Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Vladimir Putin, Moscow hasn't, Christopher Granville, Granville Organizations: Service, Russia's, Duma —, Reuters, Business, Bloomberg, US Treasury, GlobalData, Lombard, Russia Locations: Russian, Russia, Ukraine, cryptocurrencies, Hong Kong, Moscow, China, UAE, Turkey, Austria, India
Francois Lo Presti | Afp | Getty ImagesLONDON — A somewhat strange and ironic political shift has gripped Europe over the last few years. "There's an anti-incumbency mood again in Europe," Dan Stevens, professor of politics at Exeter University, told CNBC. Shared concernsThe U.K. is not alone in looking for a political change of scenery. A similar shift has been observed in much of western and eastern Europe in recent years, with hard-right populist and nationalist parties upsetting and unseating the old political establishment. Political analysts point out that, although far-right political parties in France, Germany and Italy made gains in the recent European Parliament elections, they also did not perform quite as well as expected.
Persons: Jordan Bardella, Francois Lo Presti, Dan Stevens, Stevens, Christopher Granville, leaderships, they've, Granville, Sofia Vasilopoulou Organizations: Union, Afp, Getty, Labour Party, Conservative Party, Europe —, Exeter University, CNBC, Conservative, Party for Freedom, EMEA, TS Lombard, King's College London Locations: France, Henin, Beaumont, Europe, euroskeptic, Ukraine, Italy, Netherlands, Germany
The June jobs report showed 206,000 jobs added to the economy, slightly above estimates. "To us, the message is the labor market is slowing," Fundstrat's Tom Lee said of the June jobs report. AdvertisementUS stocks closed at fresh record highs on Friday after a dovish June jobs report. Both indexes finished the week at record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has yet to hit its record high reached in May. AdvertisementThe April jobs report was also revised lower to 108,000 jobs added that month, down from the initial reading of 165,000.
Persons: Tom Lee, , Steven Blitz, Lombard, JPMorgan's David Kelly Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Fed, GlobalData
US stocks moved slightly lower on Friday following a sharp reversal in tech stocks on Thursday. AdvertisementThe AI-fueled tech rally showed signs of exhaustion, with the stalwart Nvidia experiencing a near 7% swing in Thursday's trading session, rising as much as 3% before it finished the day lower by 3.5%. Other AI tech darlings saw sharp reversals and moved lower on Thursday, with those losses spilling over into Friday's trading session. There is rising inventory and a perceived drop in traffic that is recessionary in its level," GlobalData TS Lombard said on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:AdvertisementHere's what else is going on today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:
Persons: GlobalData, Lombard Organizations: Nvidia, Dell, Broadcom, Micro, Federal Reserve Locations: Here's
Cost of debt should be higher for France, economist says
  + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCost of debt should be higher for France, economist saysDavide Oneglia, economist at TS Lombard, says total credit to gross domestic product for France is likely at the highest level in the developed world.
Persons: Davide Oneglia Organizations: TS Lombard Locations: France
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