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☆ The U.S. election is a make-or-break moment for aid to Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Kevin Lamarque | ReutersTensions are likely running high in Kyiv ahead of Tuesday's presidential election in the U.S. — a vote that could make or break ongoing aid for Ukraine. Officials in Kyiv say the election is being watched closely, amid concerns that future aid could be cut. In the week before the presidential election, Western officials were reported as saying that a Harris administration would likely struggle to push significant aid for Ukraine through Congress. A win by Donald Trump could see him placing a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as 6 November. Then President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a joint press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki, Finland.

Persons: Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Kamala Harris, Kevin Lamarque, —, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, It's, Trump, it's, Yuriy Sak, J.D, Vance, JD Vance, Carlos Osorio, Putin, Harris, Timothy Ash, Reuters Ash, Ash, Tim Willasey, Vladimir Putin, Chris McGrath Organizations: U.S, White, Reuters, NBC News, Republican, Democrats, NATO, Russia, Ukrainian, CNBC, Anadolu, Getty, Kiel Institute of, European Investment Bank, European Commission, Republicans, Kyiv, Reuters Trump, Berenberg Bank, Berenberg, Washington, Congress, Trump, Ukraine, BlueBay Asset Management, Democratic, Royal United Services Institute Locations: Washington , U.S, Kyiv, U.S, Ukraine, United States of America, United States, America, Russia, Toretsk, Donetsk, Donbas, Moscow, St, Cloud , Minnesota, Europe, Belgian, Helsinki, Finland

☆ Election win for Russia-friendly party in Georgia sets the stage for protests and possible violence
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Citizens and Georgian Dream Party supporters, carrying flags of Georgia and the Georgian Dream Party, attend the Georgian Dream Party's election rally. Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesMass protests are expected in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi on Monday after the ruling, Russia-friendly party Georgian Dream claimed victory in a contentious parliamentary election this weekend. "We do not accept these stolen election results," stated Tina Bokuchava, the leader of Georgia's main opposition party, the United National Movement, at a press briefing late on Saturday. "It was a total fraud, a total taking away of your votes," Zourabichvili told reporters, flanked by Georgian opposition party leaders, in comments reported by Reuters. Supporters of the Georgian Dream party celebrate at the party's headquarters after the announcement of exit poll results in parliamentary elections, in Tbilisi, Georgia October 26, 2024.

Persons: that's, Salome Zurabishvili, Georgia's, Irakli Kobakhidze, Bidzina Ivanishvili, Tina Bokuchava, Vano Shlamov, Bokuchava, Bidzina, Zourabichvili, Timothy Ash, Ash, Ivanishvili, Dmitry Peskov, Peskov, Irakli Gedenidze, Antony Blinken, Blinken Organizations: Georgian Dream Party, Anadolu, Getty, Georgian, European Union, NATO, United National Movement, National Movement, Afp, Reuters, BlueBay Asset Management, Kremlin's, TASS, Google, OSCE Office, Democratic, Human, European Locations: Georgia, Georgian, Tbilisi, Russia, Soviet, Soviet Union, Russian, EU, Washington, Moscow, Europe, Tbilisi , Georgia, U.S

☆ 'God help Ukraine': How JD Vance's VP nomination will cause chills in Kyiv
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Gaelen Morse | ReutersRepublican presidential nominee Donald Trump's pick of Sen. JD Vance as his vice presidential running mate will have sent chills down spines in Kyiv Tuesday morning. Ash has previously questioned Vance's position on Ukraine and the suggestion that Europe should bear the responsibility of helping Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. Trump has always appeared ambivalent over the war in Ukraine and continuing aid. The comment was an ominous one for Ukraine, however, suggesting Trump could be tempted to pull the rug on further aid. "Donald Trump would mean a big break with a couple of NATO policies, in particular on the question of Ukraine and support to Ukraine.

Persons: JD Vance, Donald Trump, Gaelen Morse, Donald Trump's, Sen, Ohio Republican Vance, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's, Trump, Vance, Ukraine —, Vladimir Putin, Europe hasn't, Timothy Ash, Ash, Vance et, Volodymyr Zelensky, Mitch McConnell, Charles Schumer, Drew Angerer, Zelenskyy, Russia's Putin, Mikhail Klimentyev, Reuters Keen, ringfence, Guntram Wolff, Wolff, Putin Organizations: Republican, U.S, Reuters Republican, Kyiv Tuesday, Ohio Republican, Marines, Kyiv —, NBC News, Financial Times, NATO, BlueBay Asset Management, Russia, Capitol, Republicans, National Governors Association, Trump, Sputnik, Reuters, CNBC Locations: Youngstown , Ohio, Kyiv, Ukraine, U.S, Russia, Europe, Russian, United States, America, Washington ,, Utah, Osaka, Japan, Washington, Trump

☆ 'We're not backing down:' How the West plans to use Russia's frozen funds, and why some say it's still not enough to help Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Group of Seven has agreed in principal to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan. Profits from Russian frozen funds are to be used as collateral to back the loan. AdvertisementThe Group of Seven has finally moved the dial on a contentious idea to provide funding to Ukraine by using Russian funds. AdvertisementRoughly $322 billion in funds were frozen after Moscow invaded Ukraine and have sat untouched for over two years. That could mean Moscow taps Western funds in the country and punishes any Western companies that have remained in Russia.

Persons: —, Putin, we're, Joe Biden, Biden, Michael Froman, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Charles Lichfield, Chatham House's Timothy Ash Organizations: Seven, Service, Kyiv, European Commission, of Foreign, CNBC, Moscow, The, CEPA, Financial Times Locations: Ukraine, headbutting, Moscow, Europe, Kyiv, Russia, France, Germany

☆ Ukraine is given a reprieve by the U.S., but faces race against the clock over weapons supplies
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Ukrainian servicemen monitor the situation along the front via drones in the direction of Kreminna, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on 31 March 2024. Defense analysts argue that while the funding could help breathe new life and morale into Ukraine's beleaguered military campaign, aid and supplies must be sent to Ukraine immediately. "It's unlikely this will create immediate parity with the Russian volume of fire, but it will help close the gap," Savill said. They point out that further U.S. aid is not guaranteed, particularly given the uncertain outcome of the presidential election later this year. One top U.S. general told Congress earlier in April that Russia was firing five artillery shells for every one fired by Ukrainian forces, and that this disparity could double in the coming weeks.

Persons: it's, Joe Biden, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy, DANA, Matthew Savill, Savill, tranche, RUSI's Savill, Chasiv Yar, Roman Pilipey, Donald Trump, Timothy Ash, Ash, — Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, Ukraine, Republicans, Democratic, U.S, Senate, Defense, London, Pentagon, Kyiv, Spartan, Afp, Chatham House, RBC BlueBay Asset Management Locations: Kreminna, Ukraine, Russia, U.S, Israel, Taiwan, Ukrainian, Washington, Russian, Czech, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Roman, British, Chasiv, Donetsk, Eurasia, Western, Luhansk, Ocheretyne, Avdiivka

☆ For U.S. Cuban claims holders, spy Manuel Rocha's plea deal raises fresh questions
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Michelle Caruso-Cabrera | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Raul Rubiera | Miami Herald | Getty ImagesWhen Carolyn Lamb saw news of Cuban spy Victor Manuel Rocha's arrest on the news last December, she recognized him immediately. The lower the value of the claims, the less the Cuban government would have to pay in any future negotiated settlement. Ashby assumed Rocha's paranoia about eavesdropping was in response to the George W. Bush administration's opposition to the Cuba claims buying business. But according to the Justice Department, by that point Rocha was already in his third decade as a Cuban agent. File photo of former US ambassador to Bolivia, Manuel Rocha, talking to the press on the 11th of July 2001.

Persons: V, Manuel Rocha, Steel Hector, Davis, Raul Rubiera, Carolyn Lamb, Victor Manuel Rocha's, Rocha, Lamb, Lamb's, Castro, Justin Solomon, CNBC Castro didn't nationalize, of Rocha, Fidel Castro's, It's, Jason Poblete, Poblete, John Kavulich, Sears Roebuck, Timothy Ashby, Ashby couldn't, Ashby, George W, Bush, Little, Covert, Gonzalo Espinoza Organizations: Miami Herald, Steel, Cuban, US State Department, National Security, Cuban Telephone Company, " Beverage Company, CNBC, Pepsi, General Electric, Century Fox, Cuba Trade, Economic Council, Justice Department, Citizen, State Department, National Security Council, DOJ, Cubans, FBI, AFP, Getty Locations: America, Omaha, Bolivia, Cuba, Havana, United States, Cuban, Rocha, Columbia, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, Argentina, Miami, Chile

☆ Turkish annual inflation soars to 67% in February
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Turkish annual consumer price inflation soared to 67.07% in February, the Turkish Statistical Institute said Monday, coming in above expectations. Analysts polled by Reuters had anticipated annual inflation would climb to 65.7% last month. The combined sector of hotels, cafes and restaurants saw the greatest annual price inflation increase at 94.78%, followed by education at 91.84%, while the rate for health stood at 81.25% and transportation at 77.98%, according to the statistical institute. "Obviously a disappointing set of inflation prints this morning," Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in a note. He added that this development has "continued to put downward pressure on the lira," creating an inflation pass-through.

Persons: Liam Peach, Mehmet Simsek, Turkey's, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: Turkish Statistical Institute, Reuters, Food, Economics, Capital Economics, Turkish, BlueBay Asset Management, FX Locations: Sariyer, Istanbul, Turkish, London

☆ Russia relishes NATO disarray after hasty denials of plan to deploy ground troops to Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The United States, Germany, the U.K., Spain, Poland and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg were among those denying that sending ground troops into Ukraine was an option. She claimed NATO countries' denials that they planned to send their ground troops into Ukraine showed the West had "betrayed Ukraine and will continue to use and betray it," repeating Moscow's baseless claims that Western countries are using Ukraine to destroy Russia. After the conference, Macron said discussions had also covered the possibility of deploying ground troops, although he said there was no agreement on the issue. France was left looking increasingly isolated throughout the day Tuesday, with the White House also distancing itself from Macron's comments. When asked about Macron's comments, Kirby said "well, that's a sovereign decision that every NATO ally would have to make for themselves.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Sergei Shoigu, Mikhail Metzel, Emmanuel Macron, Jens Stoltenberg, Dmitry Medvedev, Macron, Vyacheslav Volodin, Volodin, Napoleon Bonaparte, Napoleon, Maria Zakharova, Macron's, Stephane Sejourne, John Kirby, Kirby, General Stoltenberg, —, Biden, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: Defence, Sputnik, Reuters, NATO, Russian, Russia's Foreign Ministry, Ukraine —, Russian Foreign, Tass, Chesnot, Getty, White, . National Security, Kremlin Russia, Kremlin, Russia, BlueBay Asset Management Locations: Nazi Germany, Moscow, Russia, Reuters Russia, Ukraine, United States, Germany, Spain, Poland, NATO, Russian, France, Canada, Paris, France's, Republic, U.S

☆ Turkey's central bank hikes interest rate by 500 basis points to 40%, well above expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's Taksim Square, with the figure of Kemal Ataturk, the first president, and the Turkish flag in the background. Turkey's central bank on Thursday hiked its key interest rate, the benchmark one-week repo rate, by another 500 basis points to 40%. The move was seen as a continuation of the bank's attempt to combat high inflation and a falling lira , the Turkish currency. Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, was one of the few experts who expected a 500-basis-point hike. "Really impressive move by the CBRT [Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey] - probing their orthodoxy and getting well ahead of expectations," he said in a note.

Persons: Turkey's, Kemal Ataturk, Timothy Ash Organizations: Turkish, BlueBay Asset Management, Central Bank of, greenback Locations: Turkish, Republic of Turkey, Ankara

How the $13 trillion economy's slowdown will affect other emerging markets is still an unanswered question for investors. "Lower for longer Chinese growth is shaping a new regime of investments," Amundi's head of emerging markets Yerlan Syzdykov told Reuters. The World Bank trimmed its 2024 China growth forecast to 4.4% from 4.8%. 6/DEVELOPING REFORMThe World Bank, IMF and other multilateral development banks are under pressure to boost lending to poorer countries to fund development and tackle climate change. China and other large emerging economies have long demanded a greater say in the global financial architecture, which is still dominated by parameters set out by the 1944 Bretton Woods meeting, where the IMF and World Bank were established.

Persons: Abdelhak, Joseph Cuthbertson, Syzdykov, Anna Gelpern, Gregory Smith, Smith, Mehmet Simsek, Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, drubbing, Timothy Ash, Jorgelina, Rosario, Rachel Savage, Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker, Christina Fincher Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Palais des, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, International Monetary, PineBridge Investments, Reuters, Bank, Ukraine, U.S, Kyiv, Paris Club, IMF, American, London, G Investments, JPMorgan, Egypt IMF, Fitch, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Finance, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Palais, Palais des Congres, Marrakech, Morocco, Argentina, Pakistan, Kenya, Egypt, CHINA, China, UKRAINE, Ukraine, Zambia, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Georgetown, Nigeria, TURKEY, Ankara, New York, Washington, London, Woods

☆ 'The war is coming home to Russia': Ukraine turns the tables on Moscow as drone warfare intensifies
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"The war is coming home to Russia," Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in emailed comments Wednesday. Alexander Nemenov | Afp | Getty ImagesAerial assaults have intensified in recent days with strikes occurring further into Russian territory. Drone warfareRussia blamed Ukraine for the latest drone attacks while Ukraine remained characteristically tight-lipped about these, and previous, assaults. Ukraine has been targeted with thousands of Russian drone attacks during the 19-month-long conflict, with its energy, defense and civilian infrastructure pummeled by swarms of Iranian-made UAVs. Experts agree that Ukrainian forces direct attempts to attack Russian territory and are likely to be assisted by disaffected anti-war Russians at times.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Alexey Nikolsky, Timothy Ash, Putin, Ash, Alexander Nemenov, Mikhail Razvozhaev, Vladimir Putin's, Kirill Shamiev, Shamiev, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy Organizations: Afp, Getty, Russian, BlueBay Asset Management, Police, Moscow International Business, Reuters, Russian Ministry of Defense, European Council, Foreign Relations, CNBC, Kremlin, Kyiv, Ukrainian Armed Forces Locations: Orenburg, Russia, Moscow, Russian, Crimea, Ukraine, Kerch, Bryansk, Sevastopol, Kyiv

☆ VIEW Turkey cements policy shift with super-sized rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A logo of Turkey's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. "We should recall that sudden changes in interest rates usually have a delayed effect. "This was also the steepest rate hike since the CBT management reshuffle after the elections in May. We think the strong rate hike meant to address market concerns that the CBT wanted to avoid significant rate hike." TIMOTHY ASH, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON"Really solid move by the CBRT (central bank) to hike policy rates arguably above expectations by 750bps to 25%."

Persons: Cagla, GRZEGORZ DROZDZ, TIMOTHY ASH, 750bps, Hatice Karahan, Hatice Gaye, PIOTR MATYS, Governor Erkan, Erdogan, LIAM PEACH, Erkan, OZKARDESKAYA, SWISSQUOTE Organizations: Turkey's Central, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Turkish, EMERGINGMARKETWATCH.COM, SOFIA, GENEVA

☆ Brazil and India seem lukewarm about the enlargement of BRICS, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBrazil and India seem lukewarm about the enlargement of BRICS, strategist saysTimothy Ash, senior EM sovereign strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, discusses China tensions and says the two countries "don't want to isolate and irritate the West around BRICS."

Persons: Timothy Ash Organizations: Bluebay Asset Management Locations: Brazil, India, China, BRICS

☆ Tumbling rouble claws back ground as central bank to meet
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Putin's economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin earlier said the central bank could ensure that the pace of lending drops to sustainable levels with higher rates. "The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future." Asked earlier whether it might make an emergency hike from the current 8.5%, the central bank declined to comment. "The central bank is not fully in control," independent Moscow-based economist Ian Melkumov told Reuters. "The central bank doesn't want to kill the economy and businesses in the same way it had to last year," he said.

Persons: Rouble, Vladimir Putin's, rouble, Putin, Maxim Oreshkin, Oreshkin, Denis Popov, Popov, Matt Vogel, REUTERS Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Vladimir Solovyev, Ivan, Timothy Ash, Ian Melkumov, Alexander Marrow, Marc Jones, Gareth Jones, Philippa Fletcher, Christina Fincher Organizations: TASS, of Russia's, FIM, Moscow News Agency, Handout, REUTERS Central Bank Governor, Popular, Kremlin, Reuters, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, London

☆ Russian rouble sinks, Kremlin blames loose monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The main source of rouble weakening and accelerating inflation is soft monetary policy," Oreshkin wrote. "The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future and ensure that lending rates are reduced to sustainable levels. Last week, Russia effectively abandoned its budget rule, with the central bank halting the finance ministry's FX purchases to try and reduce volatility. "The central bank is not fully in control," independent Moscow-based economist Ian Melkumov told Reuters, although it has aggressive tools that it is currently reluctant to use. "(But) the central bank doesn't want to kill the economy and businesses in the same way it had to last year."

Persons: Kremlin, Rouble, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Maxim Oreshkin, Oreshkin, Timothy Ash, Ian Melkumov, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones Organizations: TASS, Kremlin, of Russia, Moscow News Agency, Handout, REUTERS, Reuters, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, London

☆ Kremlin blames loose monetary policy as rouble slides past 100 vs dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The main source of rouble weakening and accelerating inflation is soft monetary policy," Oreshkin wrote. "The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future and ensure that lending rates are reduced to sustainable levels. "It is in the interests of the Russian economy to have a strong rouble." The central bank hiked rates by 100 basis points in July to 8.5%, having held them steady since September. Last week, Russia effectively abandoned its budget rule, with the central bank halting the finance ministry's FX purchases to try and reduce volatility.

Persons: Kremlin, Rouble, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Maxim Oreshkin, Oreshkin, Timothy Ash, Alexander Marrow, Felix Light, Guy Faulconbridge, Gareth Jones Organizations: Moscow News Agency, Handout, TASS, Kremlin, Bank of, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, MOSCOW, Ukraine, Bank of Russia, London

☆ Instant view: Russia's rouble weakens past 100 per US dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Russian rouble fell past the psychologically key 100 per U.S. dollar threshold for the first time since March last year on Monday. FILE PHOTO: Russian rouble and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration photo taken March 10, 2023. MICHAEL WANG, DEPUTY PORTFOLIO MANAGER, MIRABAUD ASSET MANAGEMENT“The rouble has been underperforming all this year, partly on lower oil revenues but also because of capital flight. “The rouble remains under the selling pressure in the current global environment dominated by concerns about China, which is Russia’s most important trading partner.”“The sharp fall in Russia’s current account surplus leaves the rouble more vulnerable to global sentiment. The CBR (Russian central bank) may have to raise interest rates further to cool down domestic demand and slow down imports to stabilize the rouble.”

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Vladimir Putin’s, MICHAEL WANG, TIMOTHY ASH, Nabiullina, ”, PIOTR MATYS Organizations: REUTERS, CBR Locations: Russian, Russia, POLAND, China, Russia’s

☆ Russia's not just seeing an exodus of people — it saw a record $239 billion worth of assets being pulled out last year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Huileng Tan | Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia saw an record $239 billion in net capital outflows — i.e. According to Investopedia, capital outflows refer to the movement of assets out of a country. Outflows this significant are even larger than Greece's GDP of $219 billion in 2022, according to World Bank data. Last year's capital outflows were four times that of 2021 and 70% more than in 2008 amid the Global Financial Crisis, according to the analysis. Money transfers from Russia to Georgia rose fivefold, from $411 million in 2021 to $2.1 billion in 2022, according to data from Georgia's central bank.

Persons: It's, it's, Martin Galstyan, Armenia's News.am, Timothy Ash Organizations: —, Service, outflows, Center, Bank, Bloomberg, Novaya Gazeta, Chatham House's Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Moscow, Investopedia, outflows, Armenia, Georgia, Chatham House's Russia, Eurasia

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Tech stocks were battered
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Elon Musk, CEO, CTO, founderElon Musk is CEO of Tesla and SpaceX; CTO of Twitter; founder of Neuralink, The Boring Company and now xAI. Tesla may have reported record revenue for its second quarter and beaten Wall Street's expectations for both profit and revenue. But Wall Street isn't completely cheering the electric vehicle maker because of its shrinking margins.

Persons: Dow, Tesla, Elon Musk, Timothy Ash Organizations: CNBC, Dow outperforms, Netflix, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, SpaceX, Twitter, The Boring Company, Chicago Board of Trade, Initiative, Agriculture, BlueBay Asset Management, Tesla Locations: Dow outperforms U.S

☆ Wheat prices jump after Russia pulls out of the Black Sea grain deal.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Liz Alderman | More About Liz Alderman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The risk of a fresh uptick in global food inflation emerged Monday after President Vladimir V. Putin pulled Russia out of the Black Sea grain deal, sending wheat prices surging and exposing vulnerable countries in Africa and the global south in particular to the prospect of a new round of food insecurity. Chicago wheat futures, a barometer for global prices, jumped more than 4 percent as the Kremlin’s move once again jeopardized a key trade route to global markets for grain from Ukraine, one of the world’s major bread baskets. “It will hurt specific countries dependent on these exports,” Mr. Ash said. But beyond that, “it shows how weak Putin is after the Wagner coup: He is now desperate to take any bit of leverage he can.”The Black Sea Grain Initiative was struck a year ago to alleviate a global food crisis after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Russia blocked ships from carrying the country’s grain out of its ports on the Black Sea. Those blockages swiftly sent grain prices soaring to record highs.

Persons: Vladimir V, Putin, Mr, Timothy Ash, Ash, Wagner, blockages Organizations: Wagner, BlueBay, Management, Initiative Locations: Russia, Africa, Ukraine, London, “

☆ Sweden is in the final stretch to NATO membership. But Turkey could yet derail it
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan arrives for a NATO summit in Madrid, Spain June 29, 2022. With much at stake for Turkey, Sweden, and the NATO alliance, whichever direction Turkey moves in will have significant consequences for them all. "Turkey's blockade on Sweden's NATO progression isn't a clear-cut ticket to economic fallout, but it is playing with fire," said Guney Yildiz, a researcher focused on Turkey and Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday. "Either Turkey approves Sweden's NATO membership at Vilnius or it risks a major break in relations with the West and at a time when Turkey's macro is on the edge.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Doce, —, Joe Biden, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Washington, Erdogan, Biden, Ryan Bohl, Rane, Guney, Syria Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Kamal Alam, Christine Olsson, Alam, Guney Yildiz, Yildiz, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: NATO, Reuters NATO, Nordic, Ankara, Turkish, East, CNBC, Russia, Kurdish Workers ' Party, Atlantic Council, Kurdish Democratic Society Center, Afp, Getty, ISIS, EU, Anadolu Agency, BlueBay Asset Management, West Locations: Madrid, Spain, Vilnius, Lithuania, Sweden, Turkey, Hungary, EU, Ankara, Turkish, North Africa, Finland, Ukraine, Russia, Syria, Moscow, Kyiv, Stockholm, Kurdish, Europe, East Syria

☆ 'Much more needs to be done' to bring down Turkey's inflation, says Tim Ash
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Much more needs to be done' to bring down Turkey's inflation, says Tim AshBlueBay Asset Management's Timothy Ash says more needs to be done to bring down Turkey's inflation even as the country's monthly inflation came in lower than expected.

Persons: Tim Ash, Timothy Ash

☆ Turkey's inflation rate cools despite steep lira plunge
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's monthly inflation rate for June came in lower than expected, despite the continued collapse of the lira currency following the re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey's consumer price index rose 3.92% month-on-month, official data showed Wednesday. On a year-on-year basis, inflation rose 38.21%, also slightly lower than Reuters' forecasts of 39.47%. "The lira freefall starts to take its toll once again as it reignites cost pressures," he said. Ash added that the central bank will need to "work very hard to bring inflation meaningfully down from here."

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bartosz Sawicki, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: Reuters, CNBC

☆ Turkey's central bank hikes interest rate to 15% in dramatic U-turn to tackle 40% inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Residents waiting at a bus stop under a large Turkish flag in Istanbul, Turkey, on Sunday, April 30, 2023. Turkey's central bank jacked up the country's key interest rate Thursday, almost doubling it from 8.5% to 15% as the new economic administration of recently re-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan embarked on a dramatic monetary policy U-turn. The bank said that there will be further gradual monetary tightening until the inflation picture in the country improves. The whopping 650-basis-point rate rise is the country's first since March 2021, but was below analyst expectations of a 1,150-basis-point hike to 20%. Not enough," Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in an note via email.

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Timothy Ash, — Organizations: Turkish, BlueBay Asset Management Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey's

☆ Erdogan's new pick for Turkish finance minister has markets hoping for economic orthodoxy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has named former economy chief Mehmet Simsek as his new treasury and finance minister. In the unveiling of his new cabinet, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan named former economy chief Mehmet Simsek as his new treasury and economy minister, leading to some optimism that the country will now forge a new economic path. Simsek was known for his market friendly policies, and subsequently went on to become the country's deputy prime minister from 2015 to 2018 after his stint as Turkey's finance minister. Simsek creating a new team in the key economy portfolio would imply that he will have "pretty strong control over broader economic policy," BlueBay Asset Management's Senior EM Sovereign Strategist Timothy Ash said via e-mail. "The Turkish economy has a chance of pulling back from the brink," he continued.

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Erdogan, Timothy Ash

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