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Robotic arms assemble cars in the production line for Leapmotor's electric vehicles at a factory in Jinhua, Zhejiang province, China, April 26, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING, Nov 29 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity likely contracted for a second consecutive month in November, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, keeping alive calls for further stimulus measures as factory owners struggle for orders both at home and abroad. A flurry of policy support measures has had only a modest effect, raising pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus. The private Caixin factory survey will be issued on Friday, and analysts expect its reading to edge up to 49.8 from 49.5 in October. Reporting by Joe Cash; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Devayani Sathyan in Bangalore; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Joe Cash, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, PMI, Thomson Locations: Jinhua, Zhejiang province, China, Rights BEIJING, Japan, Bangalore

☆ China's Nov Factory Activity Likely Contracted for Second Month
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Nov. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +2 min

By Joe CashBEIJING (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity likely contracted for a second consecutive month in November, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, keeping alive calls for further stimulus measures as factory owners struggle for orders both at home and abroad. A flurry of policy support measures has had only a modest effect, raising pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus. Profit growth at China's industrial firms shrank back to the low single digits last month, following an 11.9% increase in September and a 17.2% gain in August, which analysts attributed to volatile input costs. Both new export and import orders shrank in October. (Reporting by Joe Cash; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Devayani Sathyan in Bangalore; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Persons: Joe Cash, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Kim Coghill Organizations: Joe Cash BEIJING Locations: China, Japan, Bangalore

☆ Bank Indonesia to maintain key rate at 6.00% until at least mid-2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Susobhan Sarkar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Bank Indonesia (BI) will leave its key policy rate unchanged at 6.00% on Thursday and likely keep it at that level until at least mid-2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists in which a few respondents still expected another rate hike. "Bank Indonesia is likely to keep rates unchanged this month. In a Nov. 14-20 Reuters poll, a strong majority of economists, 27 of 31, expected Indonesia's central bank to keep its benchmark key interest rate (IDCBRR=ECI) unchanged at 6.00% on Thursday. While 12 of 28 put the key rate at 6.00% at the end of June, five had a 6.25% forecast and three had 6.50%. "Our base case is for the first BI rate cut in Q3 2024 ...

Persons: Radhika Rao, Brian Lee Shun Rong, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Milounee Purohit, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank Indonesia, Bank, greenback, U.S . Federal, U.S ., DBS, Reuters, Maybank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Asia's, Bank Indonesia

☆ India's festival season to bring some cheer to economy, say economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 75% of economists, 25 of 33, said spending during this year's festival season, which lasts from October through December, will be higher compared to last year. Among those, 21 said slightly higher and four said significantly higher. "From a year-on-year growth rate perspective, it may not be a substantial upside so to speak." Economists generally agree India needs an even higher growth rate to generate enough jobs for millions of young people who enter the workforce every year. When asked what was India's potential economic growth rate over the next 2-3 years, economists returned a median range of 6.0%-7.0%.

Persons: Anushree, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, ANZ Research, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Reserve Bank of India

Thailand's central bank is seen at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. Despite inflation in Thailand edging up slightly to 0.88% in August, it remained below the central bank's 1-3% target range for a fourth consecutive month, suggesting little need for the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to continue hiking. A strong majority of economists in a Sept. 18-22 poll, 21 of 27, expected the BOT to keep its benchmark one-day repurchase rate (THCBIR=ECI) at 2.25% on Wednesday. None expected the central bank to raise interest rates at the following meeting in November. Median forecasts showed interest rates remaining at 2.25% through next year.

Persons: Jorge Silva, Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, Lavanya Venkateswaran, Aris, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani Sathyan, Jonathan Cable, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Bank of Thailand, Aris Dacanay, HSBC, Thomson Locations: Bank of Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand, BENGALURU, China, ASEAN

☆ Indonesia's August trade surplus seen widening to $1.55 bln: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Workers are seen on a ship carrying containers at Tanjung Priok Port in Jakarta, Indonesia, January 11, 2021. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary Trade data due at 0200 GMT on Friday, Sept 15JAKARTA, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade surplus in August likely widened slightly from a month earlier amid falling imports, even as exports were expected to remain weak, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed was for Southeast Asia's biggest economy to book a surplus of $1.55 billion, versus $1.31 billion in July. Indonesia's exports and trade surplus have been shrinking as prices of its top commodities, like coal and palm oil, fall and global demand weakens. Weak exports have also hit economic growth in the last quarter.

Persons: Willy Kurniawan, Josua Pardede, Veronica Khongwir, Susobhan Sarkar, Stefanno Sulaiman, Kanupriya Kapoor Organizations: REUTERS, Southeast Asia's, Bank Permata, Thomson Locations: Tanjung Priok Port, Jakarta, Indonesia, JAKARTA

☆ RBA to hold rates at 4.10% on Tuesday, but will hike again next quarter: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Two respondents in the Aug 30-Sept 1 poll expected a 25 basis point (bps) hike. Among major local banks, ANZ, CBA, and Westpac expected rates to remain unchanged until at least end-2023, while NAB predicted one more rate hike to 4.35% in November. Three economists expected two more 25 bps hikes in the fourth quarter. While BlackRock and Deutsche Bank expected hikes in November and December, Citi expected moves in October and November. "We think they'll maintain the tightening bias and there may be further risk of a rate hike later in the year," said Benjamin Picton, senior strategist at Rabobank.

Persons: Daniel Munoz, Taylor Nugent, Michele Bullock's, Benjamin Picton, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Anant Chandak, Ross Finley, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, NAB, ANZ, CBA, Westpac, BlackRock, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Aussie home price downturn over, to rise this year and next
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Aug. 14-29 Reuters survey of 14 analysts forecast home prices will rise 4.4% this calendar year, a significant upgrade from the flat-lining predicted in a poll published in June. In 2024, average house prices were forecast to drift up another 5%, in line with the latest New Zealand home price poll forecast and a slight increase from 4.5% in the previous poll. With many aspiring homebuyers kept away from ownership and remaining in the rental market, average lease prices were also expected to rise sharply. "Unfortunately, most indicators suggest the squeeze has longer to run with additional supply unlikely to come onto the rental market anytime soon." Home prices in Sydney were forecast to rise 6.9% this year and 5.0% next, while prices in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth were expected to rise between 3% and 6% in 2023 and 2024.

Persons: Michelle Ciesielski, Knight Frank, Ciesielski, homebuyers, Matthew Hassan, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, David Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Westpac, Thomson Locations: New Zealand, Australia, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth

☆ New Zealand house prices to rise again on supply shortage, rate cut hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, Aug 30 (Reuters) - New Zealand house prices are forecast to rise again next year due to an ongoing supply shortage and expectations for interest rate cuts, according to a Reuters poll of property market analysts. That is short of a roughly 20% correction most property analysts predicted in May following a pandemic-era boom that boosted prices by more than 40%. Prices have started to rise again on returning demand meeting limited available supply. New Zealand house prices were expected to decline 4.8% this year, the latest Reuters poll of 11 property market analysts taken Aug. 14-28 showed. Average property prices were then expected to rise 5.0% and 6.0% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, an upgrade from 3.4% and 5.0% in the previous poll.

Persons: Miles Workman, homebuyers, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ANZ, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: New Zealand, Bengaluru

☆ China's factory activity likely extended declines in August - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

An employee works on the production line of Nio electric vehicles at a JAC-NIO manufacturing plant in Hefei, Anhui province, China August 28, 2022. China Daily via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING, Aug 29 (Reuters) - China's factory activity likely contracted for a fifth straight month in August, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, as weak demand threatens recovery prospects in the world's second-largest economy and pressures officials to prop up growth. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity on a monthly basis while below that signals contraction. "ASEAN, China's top trading partner, has also decreased to a nearly two-year low of 50.8." The official manufacturing PMI, which largely focuses on big and state-owned firms, and its survey for the services sector, will be released on Thursday.

Persons: Taimur Baig, Joe Cash, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Manufacturing, DBS, ASEAN, PMI, Thomson Locations: Hefei, Anhui province, China, Rights BEIJING, Bengaluru

Only one of 22 economists, or 5%, expected the BOJ to start unwinding its ultra-easy policy this year, the Aug 15-23 poll found, significantly down from 50% in a July survey. Four said the BOJ will start unwinding in January-March 2024, five chose April-June, six selected July-September and another six opted for October-December. A separate question showed 73% of economists expecting the BOJ to end YCC next year, up from 50% in July. A question about when the BOJ ends its negative short-term interest rate policy showed 41% of economists anticipating it in 2024, down from 54% in a May poll. Economists raised their projection for Japan's fiscal 2023 GDP growth to 1.8% from 1.1% in the previous poll.

Persons: Issei Kato, Takumi Tsunoda, YCC, Kazuo, Ueda, Hiroshi Namioka, Kantaro Komiya, Satoshi Sugiyama, Susobhan Sarkar, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, D, Management, U.S, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan

Containers are seen at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port in Shanghai, China October 19, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoBEIJING, Aug 7 (Reuters) - China's exports likely contracted further in July, as manufacturers in the world's second-largest economy struggled for buyers in markets grappling with high inflation and rising interest rates, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. Imports are expected to have shrunk by 5.0%, after a fall of 6.8% in June, reflecting slightly improved domestic demand. The median estimate in the poll indicated only marginal change in China's trade surplus, with analysts predicting it will come in at $70.60 billion, compared with 70.62 billion in June. China's trade data will be released on Tuesday.

Persons: Aly, Joe Cash, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Beijing, outflows, Bengaluru

BENGALURU, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its key interest rate at 6.50% through end-March 2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who pushed back their expectations for the first rate cut to the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter in a June survey. Few are forecasting a plunge in coming months, offering little reason for the RBI to change policy now. Indeed, inflation is expected to average above 5% this fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2024, above the RBI's 4% medium-term target. In a June survey, economists predicted the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points by end-March 2024 and another 25 basis points in the April-June quarter. Among those who offered forecasts until March 2024, a slim majority, 32 of 62, expected rates to hold at 6.50%, while 20 saw a cut to 6.25%, and 10 said 6.00% or lower.

Persons: Suman Chowdhuri, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ India's economy to hold top spot for GDP but not so much for jobs growth: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The world's most populous country aspires to leapfrog to the status of a developed nation, riding on the unprecedented demographic dividend, which demands an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of around 8% for the next 25 years. It was forecast to grow 6.5% next fiscal year, with expectations of 6.2% growth this quarter, followed by 6.0% and 5.5%. "I think 6.0% to 6.5% is a very achievable and a very conservative forecast for India's growth trajectory," Nim added. The remaining six said the PLI scheme, which allocated billions of rupees as incentives from the Union budget in 2023-24, will have no impact. While India has a lot more ground to cover to replace China as the world's manufacturing hub, some economists acknowledged the PLI scheme was a step in the right direction.

Persons: Dhiraj Nim, Nim, Ajay Banga, Radhika Piplani, PLI, Piplani, Suman Chowdhury, Milounee Purohit, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, David Holmes Organizations: ANZ Research, World, Capital Advisors, Union, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, People's Republic, India

☆ China's Q2 GDP seen rising 7.3% y/y but on low base, recovery fades: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economic growth is likely to slow to 4.8% in the third quarter and 5.3% in the fourth, with full-year growth expected to reach 5.5%, the poll showed. China's central bank on Monday extended until the end of 2024 some policies which were unveiled in a November rescue package to shore up the real estate sector, including loan repayment extensions for developers. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank to cut banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25 basis points in the third quarter, while keeping benchmark lending rates steady. The central bank cut the RRR - the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves - in March. But the central bank is likely to be wary of cutting lending rates further.

Persons: it's, Zhang Yiping, Li Qiang, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Kim Coghill Organizations: Beijing, Reuters, Gross, China Merchants Securities, stoke, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, Bengaluru, Shanghai

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy were projected to have fallen 9.5% year-on-year, following a drop of 7.5% in May, according to the median forecast of 30 economists in the poll finalised on Wednesday. That is less than half the rates typical throughout recent decades and creates the feel of an economy in recession. One-third of respondents to the trade poll forecast that exports in June dropped by a double-digit percentage, as in January. Imports in June are expected to have shrunk by 4.0%, after a fall of 4.5% in May, reflecting persistently weak domestic demand. China's trade data will be released on Thursday.

Persons: Premier Li Qiang, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Joe Cash, Edmund Klamann Organizations: BEIJING, Societe Generale, Imports, Fitch, Premier, Thomson

☆ BOK to hold base rate at 3.50% on Thursday, rate cut call pushed to 2024, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummaryCompanies BOK to hold base rate at 3.50% at July 13 meetingBENGALURU, July 11 (Reuters) - The Bank of Korea (BOK) will keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50% on Thursday and for the rest of the year as inflation continued to ease, a Reuters poll of economists predicted, but rate cut forecasts were pushed back by a quarter to early 2024. Median forecasts showed interest rates would remain on hold until the end of this year, followed by a 25 basis-point cut in the first quarter of 2024. In a May poll the quarter percentage-point cut was expected to come by end-2023. But a rate cut will depend on how quickly inflation falls. The survey also predicted South Korea's economy would grow 1.2% this year and 2.3% in 2024, the same as the previous survey.

Persons: BOK, Irene Cheung, Anant Chandak, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Jonathan Cable, Hari Kishan, Jan Harvey Organizations: Bank of Korea, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reuters, ANZ, U.S . Fed, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, South Korea, Asia

☆ New Zealand central bank to hold rates in July and for rest of 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is forecast to weaken further as the impact of 525 basis points of RBNZ rate rises becomes more visible. All 25 economists polled by Reuters July 3-6 expected the RBNZ to hold the official cash rate (OCR) (NZINTR=ECI) at 5.50% on July 12. It would be the first time the RBNZ has not raised rates at a policy meeting in nearly two years. The central bank raised rates in May but signalled it was done tightening. Over 90% of economists pollled, 23 of 24, did not predict any changes to rates this quarter.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, pollled, Nick Tuffley, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reuters, ANZ, ASB, Bank of New, Kiwibank, Westpac, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bank of New Zealand

☆ New Zealand central bank to hold rates in July and for rest of 2023, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is forecast to weaken further as the impact of 525 basis points of RBNZ rate rises becomes more visible. All 25 economists polled by Reuters July 3-6 expected the RBNZ to hold the official cash rate (OCR) (NZINTR=ECI) at 5.50% on July 12. It would be the first time the RBNZ has not raised rates at a policy meeting in nearly two years. The central bank raised rates last month but signalled it was done tightening. Over 90% of economists pollled, 23 of 24, did not predict any changes to rates this quarter.

☆ RBA to raise cash rate to 4.35% in August, economists split on peak: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The RBA began tightening policy in May 2022 and had raised rates at every meeting since, other than a pause in April. Along with a still-strong job market and a rebound in house prices, expectations have strengthened for a rate increase at the August meeting. More than 90% of respondents, 23 of 25, in a July 4-5 poll expected the RBA to increase its official cash rate (AUCBIR=ECI) by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the Aug. 1 meeting. "We suspect that the coming forecast update from the RBA staff will likely tip the balance in favour of an August rate hike. Boyton said he expected a peak cash rate of 4.60% but the outlook was uncertain following the central bank's recent pause.

Persons: Adam Boyton, Boyton, Chris Read, Morgan Stanley, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Australia

The outlook was little changed for Britain and in India where prices have kept rising. Adam Challis, executive director of research and strategy for EMEA at JLL, said strong wage gains over the past year had kept many housing markets resilient despite significantly higher borrowing costs. Peak-to-trough falls for nearly all housing markets surveyed were downgraded from the March poll. British and U.S. house prices were expected to fall around 3% and Australia's to be flat for the full year 2023. Average house prices are expected to rise about 6% in India.

Persons: Mike Blake, Goldman Sachs, Adam Challis, hasn't, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Jonathan Cable, Anant Chandak, Sarupya Ganguly, Indradip Ghosh, Vivek Mishra, Milounee, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ed Osmond Organizations: KB, REUTERS, EMEA, Thomson Locations: Valley Center , California, U.S, BENGALURU, Canada, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, India, JLL

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Predicted drops in house prices in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Australia and New Zealand will come off price surges of as much as 50% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. House prices in Canada and New Zealand, which began to fall last year, were forecast to register a peak-to-trough drop of at least 20%, the poll showed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDouble-digit falls from recent peaks were also predicted for Australia (16.0%), Germany (11.5%) and the U.S. (10.0%). Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong the most commonly cited reasons for house prices to remain elevated were crimped supply, made worse during the pandemic, when construction activity came to a near-halt, and ever-rising demand. While India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates, home prices in Dubai were also predicted to rise steadily.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ ECB deposit rate to peak at 3.75% or higher as inflation stays sticky: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. All 60 economists polled by Reuters March 7-9 believed her and said the bank's deposit rate would rise 50 basis points to 3.00% on Thursday. Medians in the poll showed the euro zone's central bank adding 25 basis points at the following three meetings in May, June and July to give a terminal deposit rate of 3.75%, higher than the 3.25% peak expected in a February poll. While the median showed the deposit rate peaking at 3.75% it was a view held by only 19 of 60 economists surveyed. There is now only a 34% chance of a recession within the coming year, the poll found, down from 50% in a January poll.

Mortgage rates had been broadly declining since October but resumed their ascent in recent weeks on expectations the Fed will keep its federal funds rate higher for longer. While house prices probably had a bit further to fall, an overall housing shortage will broadly support these historically-elevated levels, Sunbury said. "We don't think affordability will return to its post-GFC levels or even its pre-pandemic average in the coming years." The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, currently at 6.5%, will average 6.35% this year, the poll found. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Indradip Ghosh and Prerana Bhat; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sujith Pai; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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