BENGALURU, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its key interest rate at 6.50% through end-March 2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who pushed back their expectations for the first rate cut to the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter in a June survey.
Few are forecasting a plunge in coming months, offering little reason for the RBI to change policy now.
Indeed, inflation is expected to average above 5% this fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2024, above the RBI's 4% medium-term target.
In a June survey, economists predicted the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points by end-March 2024 and another 25 basis points in the April-June quarter.
Among those who offered forecasts until March 2024, a slim majority, 32 of 62, expected rates to hold at 6.50%, while 20 saw a cut to 6.25%, and 10 said 6.00% or lower.
Persons:
Suman Chowdhuri, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski
Organizations:
Reserve Bank of India, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson
Locations:
BENGALURU