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Israel is also heavily backed by the United States, which has supplied more than 29,000 guided bombs, artillery rockets and assorted missiles since 2009. A spiraling conflict between Iran and Israel, one of the United States’ closest allies, could pull U.S. forces positioned throughout the region into the fray. Israel has told the United States that it will not attack Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities in its expected attack. Though highly unlikely, an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil facilities could prompt Iran or its proxies to target refineries in Saudi Arabia or the U.A.E. This April, Iran’s attack involving more than 300 drones and missiles, in retaliation for Israel’s killing of seven Iranian officials in Syria, shattered that supposition.
Persons: Arash Khamooshi, Abbas Araghchi, Biden, emboldening Israel, Chang W, Lee, Yahya Sinwar, Israel Organizations: Iranian Revolutionary Guard, The New York Times, International Institute for Strategic Studies, United, Senior Pentagon, The Defense Department, Area Defense, Defense, New York Times, United Arab, United Nations Locations: Israel, Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Iran, United States, Tehran, U.S, Gulf States, Guam, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Hormuz, Persian, Palestine Square, Gaza . Credit, Syria
Crude oil futures rose slightly Thursday after a four-day losing streak as fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East eased and a surplus looms over the market next year. Here are Thursday's energy prices:Israel has reportedly told the U.S. that it will refrain from hitting Iran's oil facilities in retaliation for the Islamic Republic's Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack. The oil market sold off steeply Tuesday on reports that Israel will limit its strike to military targets in Iran. An attack on oil facilities, however, could disrupt 1.4 million bpd of Iran's production, Saraswat said. A full-blown war could lead to Iran choking the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing 12 million bpd of oil and "driving up prices sharply," the analyst said.
Persons: Aditya Saraswat, Saraswat Organizations: Rystad Energy Locations: Israel, retaliating, Iran, East, Hormuz, jeopardizing
London CNN —Global oil prices have spiked in recent days as the conflict in the Middle East has reached fever pitch. They could rise yet further if Israel’s widening war embroils the vital Strait of Hormuz off Iran’s southern coast. About one-fifth of the world’s global oil trade passes through the strait every day, notes Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. It also accounts for about a quarter of the world’s daily trade in liquefied natural gas. But if oil trade through the critical Strait of Hormuz wobbles, prices could soar above $100 a barrel, according to research firm ClearView Energy Partners, sending gasoline prices surging.
Persons: Simone Tagliapietra, Hassan Nasrallah, Yoav Gallant, ” Tagliapietra, Brent, Richard Bronze, Organizations: London CNN —, US Energy Information Administration, Israel’s, CNN Sunday, Israel . West Texas Intermediate, ClearView Energy Partners Locations: Hormuz, Brussels, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, United States, China
Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for an attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria. The global economy is entering a "dangerous time" like never before as Middle East tensions remain elevated, said S&P Global's vice chairman Daniel Yergin. When asked if the global economy is on the precipice of another supply shock resulting from Middle East tensions, Yergin said it's a precarious time for markets. "The betting is that the Israelis would not attack, try to attack, the nuclear facilities at this time. It is a strategically important waterway linking crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
Persons: Yergin, CNBC's, Joe Biden, Daniel Yergin, it's, , Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James, Iran's Organizations: White House, Cuban Missile, Iran Watch, Wisconsin, U.S . Energy Information Administration Locations: Iran, Israel, Iranian, Syria, China, Hormuz, Oman
In 2022, oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz averaged 21 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Saul Kavonic, senior research analyst at MST Financial, said supply disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices significantly higher. Oil prices traded more than 3% on Monday, extending gains even after notching their sharpest weekly gain since early 2023 last week. "But seeing where the oil price sits right now the market doesn't seem to hold much probability for such a development at all," he added. "A significant disruption to these flows would be enough to push oil prices to new record highs, surpassing the record high of close to $150/bbl in 2008," he added.
Persons: Alan Gelder, Wood Mackenzie, CNBC's, Iraq —, Gelder, Saul Kavonic, Kavonic, Bjarne Schieldrop, SEB, Brent, Schieldrop, Warren Patterson, Patterson Organizations: Nurphoto, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Energy, Brent, U.S, West Texas, ING, bbl, United Arab Emirates, Space Shuttle Columbia Locations: Persian, Bushehr, Iran, Hormuz, Oman, Strait, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, UAE, Gulf, Muscat
U.S. crude oil rose about 2% on Monday, as the market waited for Israel to strike Iran. Oil prices spiked last week on fears that Israel could hit Iran's oil industry in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack. The impact on the oil market would be significant if Israel struck Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran's crude exports pass, Croft said. The worst-case scenario is a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's crude exports flow, Gelder said. Iran might target the strait in response to an Israeli strike, which would have a far more dramatic effect on crude prices, the analyst said.
Persons: Israel, Joe Biden, Biden, Helima Croft, Croft, CNBC's, Alan Gelder, Wood Mackenzie, Gelder Organizations: Texas Intermediate, Brent, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Israel, Iran, U.S, Kharg, Wood, Strait, Hormuz
The oil tanker 'Devon' prepares to transfer crude oil from Kharg Island oil terminal to India in the Persian Gulf, Iran, on March 23, 2018. Oil prices could shoot up $20 per barrel if Iranian production sees a hit resulting from Israeli retaliation, according to Goldman Sachs. U.S. crude oil prices just saw a third consecutive session of gains after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, heightening tensions in the region. If Israel hits Iran's oil industry, supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could become of concern, other analysts echoed. This strategically significant waterway connects crude oil producers in the Middle East with major global markets.
Persons: Struyven, Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs, CNBC's, Saul Kavonic, Joe Biden, Brent Organizations: U.S . Energy Information Administration, Oil, CNBC, White, bbl, USD150, Fitch Solutions, BMI Locations: Devon, India, Persian Gulf, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, U.S, China, Hormuz, Strait, Oman, OPEC
Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It's estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran's oil facilities. For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. watch nowTamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told CNBC via email on Thursday that the oil market was pricing in some risk premium given the geopolitical concerns. These fears, however, will be greatly alleviated in [the] coming days unless oil supply from the region or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are materially impacted," he added.
Persons: Fatemeh, Goldman Sachs, SEB, Jeff Currie, Carlyle, CNBC's, it's, Currie, we've, Amrita Sen, We've, Sen, Joe Biden, Biden, Tamas Varga, " Varga, Benjamin Netanyahu, Masoud Pezeshkian Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, Energy, OPEC, Brent, U.S, West Texas, CNBC, White House, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Persian, Nurphoto Locations: Isfahan Refinery, Iran, Isfahan, Israel, Swedish, backwardation, bearishness, U.S, Hormuz, Oman, Tehran, Qatar, Persian, Bushehr, Bushehr province
If Israel decides to go that route, it remains an open question what parts of Iran’s oil sector Israel would try to attack. An attack on Iran’s oil industry could drive up oil prices and jolt the global economy. NuclearBiden said this week that the U.S. opposed any strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran denies it has ever sought to build nuclear weapons and says its nuclear program is designed for civilian purposes. A 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers limited Iran’s nuclear project in return for an easing of economic sanctions.
Persons: Israel, Iran’s, , Monica Alba, Joe Biden, , ” Biden, Fatemeh Bahrami, Nuclear Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump Organizations: U.S, Energy, NBC News, Persian Gulf, Nuclear, Getty, of Atomic Scientists Locations: Iran, Tehran, Israel, Strait, Hormuz, Persian, U.S, Persian Gulf Star, Bandar Abbas, Fordow, Isfahan, Khondab, Iranian
$100 oil could be the October surprise no one wanted
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
New York CNN —The Middle East is in chaos, and the oil market is remarkably calm about it. The chill reaction in the oil market reflects a boy-who-cried-wolf mindset that has set in. Even just two years ago, oil prices skyrocketed to $130 a barrel in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil prices skyrocketed in 2019 when Saudi oil facilities were damaged in an attack that US officials blamed on Iran. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $100 a barrel, according to ClearView.
Persons: , Bob McNally, , It’s, McNally, George W, Bush, Israel, ” Helima, Joe Biden, Croft, internationalize, Kevin Book, ClearView, it’s, Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Rapidan Energy Partners, Israel, RBC Capital Markets, CNN, CIA, ClearView Energy Partners, International Energy Agency, RBC, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Citigroup, Citi Locations: New York, Iran, China, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, ” Helima Croft, Ukraine, Israel, Saudi, Strait, Hormuz, Riyadh, Persian
U.S. crude oil prices rose nearly 2% on Thursday for a third consecutive session of gains, as the market braces for Israel to retaliate against Iran. The risk of oil supply disruptions increases as fighting in the Middle East intensifies, but OPEC+ is sitting on a large amount of spare crude that could step into the breach, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. U.S. crude oil has gained 5% this week. "That would add a significant risk premium to oil," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Europe." As a consequence, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if Israel hits Iran's oil infrastructure, he said.
Persons: Claudio Galimberti, Galimberti, Bjarne Schieldrop, Schieldrop, CNBC's Organizations: Rystad Energy Locations: Israel, Iran, OPEC, Swedish, Strait, Hormuz
It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants. Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world's supply could be at risk if Iran's oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel. That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil," Schieldrop said. Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
Persons: Bjarne Schieldrop, SEB, Schieldrop Organizations: CNBC, Organization of, Petroleum, Israel Locations: Isfahan Refinery, Iran, Isfahan, Israel, Strait, Hormuz, Oman
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets looking at a 'record global energy crisis' if Strait of Hormuz is affected, says analystSaul Kavonic, senior research analyst at MST Financial, says that would be "coming on top of a quite fragile market in the wake of the reduction of Russian gas over the last two years."
Persons: Saul Kavonic Locations: Hormuz
Oil prices could surge past $200 a barrel if Iran's oil installations are taken offline, a chief commodities expert said. AdvertisementOil prices could roar past $200 a barrel if escalating tensions in the Middle East decimate Iran's crude output, a chief commodities analyst told CNBC. In the $200 per barrel scenario, Brent crude, the international benchmark, would gain 161% from its current price. Still, some investors are betting on the possibility of damaged oil output, Bloomberg reports. These restrictions were introduced to prop up oil prices, but have cost the alliance market share.
Persons: , SEB's Bjarne Schieldrop, Schieldrop, Brent, Bob McNally, haven't Organizations: Service, CNBC, Traders, Bloomberg Locations: Iran, Hormuz, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh
While hostilities throughout the Middle East have ramped up, there has not been any oil supply disruption, observed Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates. "The oil market does not expect an all-out war between Iran and Israel that would impact supply," he told CNBC via email. However, both experts noted that a rapid escalation in conflict could lead to crude oil prices hitting $100 per barrel. While unlikely, oil prices would jump by $30 per barrel if it occurred, he added. "If events rapidly spiral, any material disruption to Iranian oil supplies or oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices well over $100 per barrel," said Young.
Persons: Hassan Nasrallah, Nasrallah, Andy Lipow, Lipow, Josh Young, Young Organizations: State, Company, Venezuelan, Company SA, Israel Defense Forces, Hezbollah, U.S, National Intelligence, London Assembly, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Lipow Oil Associates, CNBC, U.S ., U.S . Energy Information Administration, Hamas Locations: Venezuela, Beirut, Iran, Israel, U.S . Canada, Guyana, Straits, Hormuz, Oman, Lebanon
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTensions in the Middle East could lead to a $10 spike in oil prices, says commodities strategistBenjamin Hoff, global head of commodities strategy at Societe Generale, says it would be safe to assume prices would spike if Iran were to disrupt the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Persons: Benjamin Hoff Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: Iran, Hormuz
U.S. crude oil prices traded close to a three-week high Tuesday, after rallying on Monday in anticipation of an attack by Iran against Israel that could play havoc with Mideast production and transportation. Here are Tuesday's energy prices:"These risks remain low-probability events, which helps explain the modest increase in prices," Gloystein wrote. But prices eased slightly Tuesday as a strike by Iran had not yet materialized. Rob Ginsberg, managing director at Wolfe Research, said U.S. crude could rise above a resistance level of $84 per barrel. "Once out, mid to high $90s isn't crazy," Ginsberg said.
Persons: Henning Gloystein, Gloystein, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: Eurasia Group, International Energy Agency, OPEC, U.S, Wolfe Research Locations: Iran, Israel, Hormuz, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, China
Read previewThe US Navy is sending another aircraft carrier to the Middle East. AdvertisementThe aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, right, follows the guided missile cruiser USS Cape St. George as the ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in May 2012. A carrier strike group consists of a carrier, its air wing, and other warships like destroyers and cruisers. The US also deployed the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean as regional tensions flared. It then pivoted to the Middle East to defend merchant shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden from Houthi attacks.
Persons: , Abraham Lincoln, Israel, It's, Lincoln, George, Alex R, Forst, Gerald R, Dwight D, Eisenhower, Theodore Roosevelt Carrier, Roosevelt Organizations: Service, US Navy, Pentagon, Saturday, Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike, Business, Hamas, Ford Carrier Strike Group, Israel, US, Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, Ford, Eisenhower, AP, Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike, Lincoln, USNI, Fleet, Department of Defense, US Central Command, Command Locations: Israel, Iran, Tehran, Cape St, Hormuz, Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Gulf, Aden, Persian, United States
Related stories"MCOTEA uses a mission-oriented context in operational testing to relate evaluation results to the impact on the Warfighter's ability to execute missions," the guidebook states. "Focusing on the mission context during operational test planning and execution provides a more robust operational test environment and facilitates evaluation goals." While the real-world MADIS system will be equipped not only with Stinger missiles but also with 30mm machine gun turrets, officials said the tests so far have only involved training ammo. This fall, 3rd LAAB will finally get its first 13 MADIS systems right as the weapon achieves initial operating capability, marking it ready for combat. Program managers said earlier this year that the Marine Corps wants a total of 190 MADIS and 21 L-MADIS systems.
Persons: , USS Boxer, jammer, MADIS, Cpl, Apollo Wilson, Lance Cpl, Jack C, Howell MADIS, Morgan Blackstock, Neil Mabini Col, Andrew Konicki, Blackstock, Taylor Barefoot, Barefoot, Robert Barclay, Barclay, Matthew Romonoyske Organizations: Service, Marine Air Defense Integrated, Marines, Air Battalion, Business, Tactical Vehicles, USS, 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, Polaris, Military, . US Marines, Marine Air Defense, US Marine Corps, Marine Corps, DoD, MCOTEA, Marine Air Defense Integrated System, MADIS, Marine Corps Systems Command, Sandboxx, " Systems, Mk1, US Navy, Air Defense, Corps, Unmanned, Systems, US Marines Locations: Strait, Hormuz, Yuma, America, Philippine, Camp Pendleton , California, Washington ,, Bataan
It was the third navy ship Iran has lost in an accident since 2018. AdvertisementIn June 2021, it lost the 680-feet-long Kharg support ship, the Iranian Navy's largest by tonnage, in a fire, injuring 33. Furthermore, it could also "be a small reflection of government prioritization" of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy over Iran's Navy. "Budgets are training, maintenance, and personnel." Iran has two navies: its Navy, known as the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, and the naval arm of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary organization.
Persons: , Bryan Clark, Clark, Steven Horrell, Horrell, Damavand, Shahid Hassan Bagheri, Morteza Nikoubazl, Hudson's Clark, Nadimi Organizations: Service, Iran's Navy, Business, Hudson Institute, Transatlantic Defense, Security, Center for, UK, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Navy, Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC Navy, US Navy, Supreme, IRIN, Washington Institute for Near East Locations: Bandar Abbas, Iran, Iranian, Bandar, United Kingdom, Islamic Republic of, Hormuz
An Iranian frigate capsized while undergoing repairs at Bandar Abbas, a coastal city in the Strait of Hormuz. State media reported that it took on water and lost balance due to a "technical failure." AdvertisementSeveral people were admitted to hospital after an Iranian warship capsized at the port city of ​​Bandar Abbas on Sunday, Iran's state media reported. The Sahand, a domestically produced Moudge-class frigate, was undergoing repairs when it lost balance and partially sank, per the Mehr News Agency. The mishap was due to a "technical failure," Mehr reported.
Persons: , ​ ​ Bandar, Mehr Organizations: Service, Mehr News Agency Locations: Iranian, Bandar Abbas, Strait, Hormuz, State, , ​ ​ Bandar Abbas
Read previewIn the last three years, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has commissioned hundreds of new vessels. AdvertisementThe Shahid Hassan Bagheri is one of three new Soleimani-class missile corvettes that are the most heavily armed warships in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy's fleet. Despite being lightly armed, it has a record of harassing US vessels and civilian ships in the Persian Gulf. AdvertisementThree Soleimani-class corvettes, Shahid Soleimani, Shahid Hassan Bagheri, and Shahid Sayyad Shirazi, have been commissioned, while a fourth, Shahid Ra'is-Ali Delvari, is under construction. AdvertisementMahdavi will eventually be joined by another converted container ship, the Shahid Bagheri.
Persons: , Shahid Hassan Bagheri, Morteza Nikoubazl, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Shahid Soleimani, Nazeri, Shahid Nazeri, SAMs, Shahid Sayyad Shirazi, Shahid Ra'is, Ali Delvari, Hassan Bagheri, Abu Mahdi al, Shahid, Alireza Tangsiri, Shahid Mahdavi, 400Y8DYPlr — Mehdi H, Shahid Roudaki, Roudaki, Mahdavi, Lewis B, Puller, Shahid Bagheri, Bagheri, Tangsiri, IRGCN, Ayatollah Khamenei, Nadimi, Saviz, Diego Garcia, Benjamin Brimelow Organizations: Service, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Business, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy's, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, US, Quds Force, Guard, Southern Hemisphere, American, British, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Global Affairs, Fletcher School of Law, Diplomacy, Modern, Institute Locations: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Persian, Gulf of Oman, Hormuz, China, Russia, Taiwan, Norway, Yemen, Makran, Morteza, Israel, Lebanon, Hamas, Gaza, Syria, Mahdavi, West
Since its inconclusive 2006 war with the Lebanese militant group, Israel has been planning for a re-match. During the 2006 war, in the experience of this correspondent, it was rare to encounter Hezbollah fighters. In the event of war, full-scale war, both sides will be able to inflict significant pain on the other. In the entire 34-day war of 2006 Hezbollah is estimated to have fired around 4,000 rockets – a daily average of 117. At 6 a.m. on July 13, 2006 – less than 24 hours after the start of the war – Israeli warplanes bombed and knocked out Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport.
Persons: CNN —, Benny Gantz, Hassan Nasrallah, – Nasrallah, Avihu Shapira, Gantz, Beirut’s Rafic, , Israel, Iran’s, Qais Al, Ahl Al, Haq, Lebanon “ Organizations: CNN, Reichman University, Israel, Getty, Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport, Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion International, Washington Locations: Lebanon, Herzliya, Israel, Lebanese, Haifa, Syria, Gaza, Iraq, Iran, It’s, Israel’s, Yemen, Red, Jordan, America, Tehran, Damascus, Hormuz, Persian, Germany, Sweden, Kuwait, Netherlands
Hundreds of Palestinians, including women and children living in east part of Rafah, migrate to the west part of the Khan Yunis with their few belongings loaded on vehicles following the Israel's announcement on the evacuation of neighborhoods, in Khan Yunis, Gaza on May 6, 2024. Crude oil futures fell Tuesday as the course of the war in Gaza remains uncertain. Israel's war cabinet unanimously voted to continue military operations in Rafah after rejecting a cease-fire proposal accepted by Hamas on Monday. Israeli forces seized the Rafah border crossing, sparking condemnation from Egypt, which has been mediating cease-fire talks. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said prices have remained in a relatively stable band but risk remains to the upside for oil due to the war's proximity to the Strait of Hormuz — the most important global transit point for crude.
Persons: Mike Wirth Organizations: Chevron Locations: Rafah, Khan Yunis, Gaza, Egypt, Hormuz
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'40% probability' that Israel-Iran tensions will disrupt shipping and oil trade at Strait of HormuzClay Seigle of Rapidan Energy Group says tensions between Israel and Iran have entered a "new chapter" as the "shadow war" between the two is now over.
Organizations: Rapidan Energy Locations: Israel, Iran, Strait, Hormuz Clay
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