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☆ If you sold in May, it's time to come back: Stock Trader's Almanac issues seasonal buy signal
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Stock Trader's Almanac issued a seasonal buy signal for equities, saying investors who sold in May can start to come back to the market now as the calendar nears what are historically the best six months of the year. The same is true of the S & P 500 . In the best six months, the S & P 500 gained 3,019 points, while rising 1,133 points in the worst six. "And beginning on the first trading day of April we prepare to exit these seasonal positions as soon as the market falters." The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above the 43,000 milestone on Monday, while the S & P 500 recently crossed the 5,800 level for the first time.

Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Cambodia

☆ Beware if you hold these stocks heading into earnings season, Piper Sandler says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Earnings season is right around the corner, and there are some stocks investors should be wary of, according to Piper Sandler. The season unofficially kicks off this week, with JPMorgan's third-quarter results due Friday before the bell, and it ramps up from there. The remaining four have a strong buy or buy rating. The department store chain is set to report its quarterly results in November. By contrast, only two have a strong buy or buy rating.

Persons: Piper Sandler, they've, Paramount's, Skydance, Nordstrom, it's, Piper, – Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Paramount Global, Warner Bros, Paramount, GameStop, Southwest Airlines, Southwest Locations: U.S, GME

☆ Short ideas: Here are the stocks JPMorgan is betting against in the fourth quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Despite the major indexes trading near their all-time highs, there are still plenty of stocks that JPMorgan is bearish on in the coming quarter. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan surveyed its analysts for their top short ideas, or stocks that might underperform going into the fourth quarter. Shares have risen 9% in 2024, leading to what JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut believes is an expensive valuation. JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Goldman also has an underweight rating on Beyond Meat . "Plant-based meat continues to struggle as the fad fades," the analyst wrote.

Persons: Stocks, Stanley Black, Decker, Michael Rehaut, Kenneth Goldman, Stephen Tusa, Mark Strouse Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Traders, Rockwell Automation, ROK, FuelCell Energy Locations: —, underinvestment

☆ October is already living up to its volatile reputation
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 fell nearly 1% to kick off the new month of trading. The Nasdaq Composite shed more than 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%, or 173 points. The Cboe Volatility Index , Wall Street's preferred fear gauge, swelled abpve 20 — its highest level since Sept. 11. I am bracing for added volatility and the market to over-trade daily headlines and themes," he said in a note to clients Wednesday. CNBC Pro found that the S & P 500 averages a daily move of 1.3% in either direction in October, based on FactSet data going back to 1950.

Persons: Street's, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Baird, Harley, Davidson Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, West Texas, CNBC Pro Locations: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Milwaukee

☆ These are Wall Street’s favorite stocks heading into a new month of trading
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As a new month looms, Wall Street expects its favorite stocks to outperform — no matter what October might bring. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for Wall Street's favorite names that analysts believe could rally from here. Read's $150 price target is way above the consensus $137, and about 43% higher than where ConocoPhillips closed Friday. Analysts are also bullish on fellow energy producer Diamondback Energy , with the stock's upside to average price target coming in at 30%. Other stocks on Wall Street's list of favorites include casino operator MGM Resorts International and biotechnology firm Biogen .

Persons: Janney Montgomery, Dan Wantrobski, Wall, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Wells, Roger Read, Read's, Piper Sandler, Mark Lear Organizations: Federal Reserve, November's U.S, CNBC Pro, Semiconductor, Micron Technology, Micron, Wall Street, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, Diamondback, Endeavor, MGM Resorts International Locations: November's, Friday's, Wells Fargo, Houston, Midland, 3Q24

☆ Wall Street braces for a turbulent October with jobs report on deck next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 have broken out to new highs this month. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky asked this week, referring to the S & P 500. The S & P 500 had risen more than 5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by more than 1%. For the S & P 500, those levels represent declines of about 6% to 9%, as of Thursday's close. Initial Claims (09/28) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (September) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services SA final (September) 10 a.m.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Dow, Adam Turnquist, LPL Financial's Turnquist, Jeff Hirsch, he's bullish, Hirsch wouldn't, Lamb Weston, Nonfarm Payrolls, —, Nick Wells Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, CNBC, Nasdaq, LPL, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, PMI, Manufacturing, Nike, McCormick, ADP, PMI Services SA, Services PMI, Constellation Locations: Europe, U.S, Chicago

☆ These are September’s top-performing S&P 500 stocks. Where analysts see them going next
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Most analysts think that September's top-performing stocks could continue their ascent. September is a traditionally dicey for stocks: It's the worst month of the year for the S & P 500 , according to the Stock Trader's Almanac . With October right around the corner, CNBC Pro used FactSet data to screen for this month's top-performing stocks in the S & P 500 and find out where analysts see them going next. Constellation Energy is up more than 30% on the month, making it September's second-highest performer in the S & P 500. Power company Vistra has surged nearly 196% in 2024, and it's the top performer in the S & P 500 this month.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, David Arcaro, Vistra, Jefferies, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, Raymond James, Brian Gesuale Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Analysts, Constellation Energy, Microsoft, Constellation, Energy, Software, Palantir Technologies, Oracle, Delta Air Lines Locations: Thursday's

☆ Market headed for first winning September in 5 years, but don't get too comfortable
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In fact, the S & P 500 is on pace for a winning September — its first since 2019 — with a gain of more than 1%. The month is typically the worst stretch of the year on average for all three major averages and the Russell 2000, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Some of September's strength could be attributed to the Federal Reserve's supersized rate cut last week . The S & P 500 notched a fresh record close on Monday and an intraday all-time high on Tuesday. The benchmark S & P 500 typically pulls back nearly 1% on average in October in election years, per the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Persons: —, Russell, Gary Pzegeo Organizations: Federal, CIBC Private Wealth Management

☆ Look for stock market pain next week after Friday's 'triple witching' options expiration
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Today is triple witching expiration , the quarterly expiration of single stock and index options, and index futures. It's occurring at an unusual moment: the S & P 500 is at an historic high. Week after triple witch: poor Unfortunately, the week after the September triple witch is historically among the weakest of the year. S & P 500 rebalancing today The S & P 500 will see three new entrants at the close today, each of which will begin trading as part of the S & P on Monday: Dell Technologies , Erie Indemnity and Palantir Technologies . Finally, while the S & P 500 is at a new high, the Russell 2000 smallcap index is not far behind.

Persons: Chris Murphy, Jeff Hirsch, Dow Industrials, Hirsch, Dell, Russell Organizations: Stock, Nasdaq, Dell Technologies, Erie, Palantir Technologies, Etsy, Rad Laboratories, American Airlines Group Locations: Susquehanna

☆ These stocks have momentum on their side even if market stumbles
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With that seasonal volatility in mind, Evercore ISI screened for stocks that may continue to outperform in the current climate. The investment bank combed through the Russell 3000 for stocks that are in the top quintiles for momentum, sentiment and buybacks. One company that made the Evercore ISI screen was mobile tech company AppLovin . Evercore ISI also highlighted Sprouts Farmers Market as a potential outperformer. Evercore ISI upgraded Sprouts to outperform from in line this week.

Persons: Russell, LSEG, BTIG, Benjamin Budish, Robinhood, Michael Montani Organizations: Stock, Federal, UBS, FactSet, Financial, LSEG, Barclays, ISI

☆ Tom Lee, who's been correctly bullish, turns cautious and sees 7%-10% pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Equity strategist Tom Lee expects the stock market will run into some turbulence over the next eight weeks, though he expects a pullback could be a buying opportunity for investors. Lee stocks could pull back by 7% to 10%, as investors navigate what's historically the weakest month of the year. The Stock Trader's Almanac shows the S & P 500 has averaged a 0.7% loss every September in data going back to 1950. "I think investors should be cautious for the next eight weeks," Lee told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday. Lee was one of the first on Wall Street to turn bullish on stocks during the depths of the pandemic and was correctly bullish heading into 2024 as well.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Market's, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ September's poor history is hard to ignore, but market has many things on its side including the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The good news outweighs the bad Seasonality aside, the market is riding a wave of momentum, and with good reason: 1) The market "broadening" trend is very real. At Jackson Hole, chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed had shifted its attention from fighting inflation to the job market. S&P 500 in September: It's been ugly recently (rounded) 2023: down 5%2022: down 9%2021: down 5%2020: down 4% The elections are another wildcard. Two-thirds of the S&P 500 was up in August. Most importantly, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) modestly outperformed the S&P 500 in August and closed Friday at an historic high.

Persons: Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Robert Hum, It's, Consumer Staples, Jerome Powell, David Smith, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Dow, NASDAQ, Russell, NYSE, Megacap Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Consumer, Estate, Technology, American Association of, Bulls, PCE, Fed, Rockland Trust, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Wellington, Meta, Rockland, New York City, U.S

☆ Next week has historically been a bright spot ahead of a tough market period
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Going back to 1953, the S & P 500 has climbed around 0.5% during the final week of August on a median basis, according to data analyzed by Bespoke Investment Group. That is a bright spot ahead of a historically weak period for the market. September ranks as the worst month on average for the S & P 500 going back to 1950, according to data from the Stock Trader's Almanac. Almanac data shows the S & P 500 is flat on average for the month. .SPX 1M mountain The S & P 500, 1 month The upcoming week also has some events that may move the market in the trading month's final days.

Organizations: Investment Group, Stock, Investors

☆ 'Sell in May and go away' is a catchy adage, but probably not a good idea
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's not just that it has been a down month (down 3.0% for the S & P 500, breaking a 5-month win streak). However, weaker does not mean down. The S & P, even in the weakest five months, was still up almost 2%. The bottom line: market timing is always a tricky affair. Many of these timing maxims could be trumped by an even better one: "It's time in the market that matters, not market timing."

Persons: It's, Nicholas Colas, Jeff Hirsch, it's Organizations: Dow, Stock Locations: It's, DataTrek

☆ Stocks could have further to fall in May after this month’s market woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is down by more than 3% this month, though it has still registered a more than 6% advance for the year. But many investors worry stocks have further to go before finding a durable bottom. They say stocks look overvalued even after the recent pullback, and they cite troubling headwinds for equities. 'Sell in May and go away' May has a reputation as a historically weak month for stocks. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick noted that stocks have actually been higher in May during the last nine out of 10 years.

Persons: Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Jeff Hirsch, he's, It's, Hirsch, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, we've Organizations: Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury Bond ETF

☆ March in a presidential election year may kick off a weak period. Here's why that could be a buying opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Seasonally speaking, stocks could be in for a pullback as the calendar turns to March in a presidential election year. In every March since 1950, the S & P 500 historically rises 1.1%, but the same month in presidential election years scores a smaller 0.4% advance on average. Currently, the S & P 500 is trading around the 5,100 level. But Hirsch advised investors to watch S & P 500 support levels closer to 4,800, the prior all-time high, or 4,600, the high from the summer of 2023. That's because Hirsch anticipates the S & P 500 will rise to 5,500 by year end, so any dips may prove a buying opportunity for investors.

Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, Russell, Hirsch, it's, you've, —, Hirsch isn't, Katie Stockton, Sam Stovall, Stovall Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, CFRA Research

☆ Something unusual is happening with the S&P 500, and it could mean more gains ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is about to do something unusual that has typically been followed by strong gains ahead. There have been only been 28 instances in which the S & P 500 has risen over the first two months of the year. The S & P 500 hit record highs in recent weeks, prompting questions about whether it can continue advancing or is due for a correction. With last week's advance, the S & P 500 officially finished 15 of the last 17 completed trading weeks in the green. The S & P 500 went on to finish that year up by a whopping 27.3%.

Persons: what's, Henry Allen, Allen, Madonna Organizations: Carson Group, Deutsche Bank, Bretton Locations: U.S

☆ Wall Street is on pace to finish January higher. Why that could be good news for the rest of the year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

That's according to the "January barometer" from the "Stock Trader's Almanac," which argues that "as the S & P 500 goes in January, so goes the rest of the year." The S & P 500 has managed to trade above the 4,900 level already this month and is currently up 3.3% in the new year. That's enough to put the broad market index trading above Wall Street strategists' average 2024 target of 4,914, according to the CNBC PRO Market Strategist Survey. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024 Election Year Notably, 2024 is a U.S. presidential election year. By comparison, the S & P 500 typically gains 15% in those years with a higher January.

Persons: Stocks, Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Sam Stovall, Outperformers, Dow, Stovall, What's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wall, CNBC, Market, Survey, Bank of America, Dow Jones Locations: U.S

☆ First the Santa Claus Rally failed, now the First Five Days indicator is also negative
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Despite a huge rally Monday led by tech stocks that drove up the S & P 500 by 1.4%, a second seasonal indicator is flashing red. First the Santa Claus Rally failed. Now the First Five Days indicator is also negative. The S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the first five trading days of the year. The Santa Claus Rally and the First Five Days indicator have failed together 9 times since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Persons: Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, There's Organizations: Santa Claus, Stock

☆ The ‘Santa Claus rally’ is in trouble, and that may signal weaker stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Santa Claus rally is in trouble. With one day left in the trade, the S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the past six days. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 — less than 25% of the time. "That is 16 out of 16 years, which includes years with recessions, like 2020," Clifton notes. The outperformance is notable: The S & P tends to be stronger by 1.3% on average.

Persons: Santa Claus, Jeff Hirsch, Tom McClellan, Hirsch, Dan Clifton, Clifton, Biden, Jason Trennert, Strategas, There's Organizations: Santa, Treasury, Bloomberg Locations: Santa, Santa Claus, U.S, Strategas, Mexico, India, Taiwan, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Tunisia

☆ Santa Claus rally period starts on Friday with an average gain of about 1% the next 7 trading days
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-22 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Friday is the official start of the Santa Claus rally. What the Santa Claus Rally is, and isn't Over the years, Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac has repeatedly told me the key to understanding the Santa Claus rally is that it is not a trading strategy, it is an indicator. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 (less than 25% of the time). In the years when the Santa Claus period is negative, the S & P is up an average of only 5.0%, versus an average gain of 9.1% in all years. You can see this very clearly in this chart: The common explanation is that: 1) markets are stronger with a sitting president because a sitting President can pull levers to help the economy, and 2) markets tend to be weaker with no sitting president because of increased uncertainty around economic outcomes.

Persons: Santa Claus, Yale Hirsch, Ryan Detrick, I've, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch Organizations: Carson Group, Santa Locations: Santa

☆ One year after the December 2022 Fed meeting and stock investors are almost back to even
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-13 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P ended last December down almost 6% and ended all of 2022 down almost 20% (19.4% to be exact). 2 022 was an odd duck Last year was an unusual one — unusual because market declines of 20% don't happen very often. And the S & P 500? The S & P dropped 25% from the January 2022 closing high of 4,793 to the bottom of 3,577 in October 2022. Three-quarters of the time, the S & P 500 goes up from one year to the next.

Persons: Stocks, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Down

☆ Signs of a sector rotation — plus 2 more themes to watch in the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Historically, November is the best month of the year for the stock market, and December is third, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Under the surface this week, we also saw signs of a possible market rotation in the works. Rotation watch : We must look to next week's trading for confirmation that we're in the grips of a rotation or simply a head fake. Signs of the former were on display this week as the two of the biggest sector winners of the year, communication services and technology , trailed the market. Jobs, jobs, jobs : The most important release of the week comes Friday in the form of the November nonfarm payrolls report.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Locker, it's, Hock Tan, We'll, Joann, JOAN, JM Smucker, OLLI, Campbell Soup, Brown, Forman, LULU, Smith, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Cisco Systems, VMWare, Club, PMI, Labor, Signet Jewelers, SIG, Brands, Toll, Thor Industries, Natural Foods, GameStop, Vail Resorts, MTN, Smith & Wesson, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Asana, ASAN, New York City

☆ Wall Street will try to keep the November momentum going in the final month of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street will endeavor to keep the November momentum going in the final month of 2023, as investors look for a broadening out of the rally that has been dominated this year by a handful of tech names. It also marked the best monthly performance for the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since July 2022. While the S & P 500 cap-weighted index climbed more than 18% this year, the equal-weighted index is up by just over 4%. They highlight the attractive relative valuation of value stocks compared to growth stocks, as well as the significant underweighting of value names in portfolios by traders. And the question is, is it going to be in 2024, is it going to be 2025 or in 2026?

Persons: Stocks, Hogan, Olivier Sarfati, GenTrust's Sarfati, Carlos Asilis, Asilis, FactSet, nonfarm payrolls, They're, TK, Nonfarm Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Riley, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Expedia, Paramount Global, Russell, Glovista Investments, PMI, Services PMI, ADP, Labor, Consumer Credit, Broadcom Locations: U.S, Michigan

☆ After an extraordinary November for stocks, December has a lot in its corner. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo

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