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Over the past month, the S & P 500 has climbed 3.2% to break above 5,800 for the first time. "Despite all the soft-landing and Fed rate cut optimism, the S & P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot," he wrote in a note to clients. "S & P 500 over-valuation has been supported by (and fully reflects) the Fed likely cutting the real funds rate," he added. This summer, he said he expected the S & P 500 to fall to 5,000 by the fourth quarter. While not included in CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey , that forecast would mark Stifel as the second lowest among those surveyed.
Persons: Barry Bannister, Stifel, manias, Bannister Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro's, Survey, Citi, Cisco Systems
Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister thinks the S & P 500 will see a steep pullback over the next couple of months. Bannister said Stifel's year-end target of 5,000 for the S & P 500 "seems appropriate right now" given the July jobs data and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In early June, Bannister said the S & P 500 could drop to approximately 4,750 before the end of the third quarter of this year. The S & P 500 ended last week at 5,346.56. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year.
Persons: Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister, Bannister, Stifel's, Stifel, we've Organizations: CNBC, Traders
Investors should position themselves defensively as the S & P 500 could drop about 10% before the end of September, according to Stifel Financial. That would mark a more than 10% decline from where the S & P 500 finished Monday's trading session. The S & P 500 closed out 2023 at about 4,770. That can, in turn, push the S & P 500 price-to-earnings multiple down by about two points, weighing on the stock market. Discounted for inflation, the S & P 500 is slightly below where it was about two and a half years ago.
Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister Organizations: Financial, Central, Federal Reserve, Federal
Stifel Financial is predicting a rough road ahead for the S & P 500 . The investment bank forecasts the benchmark stock index will tumble about 500 points to 4,750 in the second or third quarter — a correction of roughly 10%. "As a result, the sustained 2% Core PCE inflation the Fed seeks is a pipe dream." Stifel's inflation model shows a jump in core personal consumption expenditures to just over 3% in the second half of this year. The S & P 500 is up about 9.5% year to date.
Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister Organizations: PCE
Conversely, Kilburg is adding to positions that have lagged the market, such as industrial and health-care stocks. "Those are three names that I believe are blue chip, essential names to the U.S. economy," he said. UnitedHealth and other health-care stocks are also trading at a discount, Kilburg said, citing Johnson & Johnson as a potential winner. Buy cyclical names Bailey, formerly a health-care analyst at Legg Mason and Stifel Financial before joining FBB in 2015, expects a hotter-than-forecast inflation report on Wednesday would take stocks lower. The Johns Hopkins MBA also sees the larger, diversified banks as attractive in a climate of higher inflation and interest rates.
Persons: Jeff Kilburg, Kilburg, Mike Bailey, Bailey, payrolls, Lockheed Martin, Johnson, Legg Mason, Berkshire Hathaway, Johns Hopkins, UnitedHealth Organizations: KKM, FBB Capital Partners, Meta, Nvidia, Lockheed, Stifel, FBB, Treasury, Berkshire, Union Pacific, Old Dominion Freight Locations: U.S, McLennan, Progressive, Chevron
Stifel Financial CEO Ron Kruszewski on strong Q4 results
  + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStifel Financial CEO Ron Kruszewski on strong Q4 resultsStifel Financial CEO Ron Kruszewski joins 'The Exchange' to discuss projected investment banking performance in 2024, a cautionary outlook on rate cuts, and more.
Persons: Ron Kruszewski Organizations: Stifel
Stifel Financial CEO Ron Kruszewski on Q3 earnings miss
  + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStifel Financial CEO Ron Kruszewski on Q3 earnings missRon Kruszewski, Stifel Financial chairman and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the outlook for financials and banking, the strength of wealth management, and more.
Persons: Ron Kruszewski Organizations: Stifel
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe will probably get a government shutdown, but markets will look past it: Stifel's Brian GardnerBrian Gardner, Stifel Financial chief Washington policy strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the return of Congress after Labor Day, whether the U.S. can avoid a government shutdown, the impact on markets and investors, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's trip to China, and more.
Persons: Brian Gardner Brian Gardner, Gina Raimondo's Organizations: Stifel Financial, Labor Locations: Washington, U.S, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Stifel Financial CEO Ron KruszewskiRon Kruszewski, Stifel Financial chairman and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the need for more bank consolidation, inexpensive financial valuations, and the importance of in-person work for investment bankers.
Persons: Ron Kruszewski Ron Kruszewski Organizations: Stifel
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStifel Financial CEO Ron Kruszewski: There will be an increase in bank consolidationRon Kruszewski, Stifel Financial chairman and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the need for more bank consolidation, inexpensive financial valuations, and the importance of in-person work for investment bankers.
Persons: Ron Kruszewski Organizations: Stifel
The National Retail Federation is predicting record spending , whether students are heading back to elementary school, high school or college. Bracing for higher prices as wages fall Baked into that outlook was an expectation held by the vast majority of respondents, 82%, that prices will be higher this year than in 2022. As in the KPMG survey, the gain largely reflected the perception that prices will be higher this year. In the JLL poll, Walmart , Target and Amazon were among the top three retailers parents planned to shop, by a wide margin. Stifel reiterated its price target of $163 for Walmart, saying, "We continue to see more upside than downside from current levels."
Persons: Paul Ashworth, Staples, Mark Astrachan, Astrachan, Stifel, Corey Tarlowe, Tarlowe Organizations: Prime, National Retail Federation, KPMG, Big, Capital Economics, Consumers, Walmart, Target, Old Navy, Kohl's, Macy's, Costco, Adobe Analytics, Jefferies, Amazon, Walmart U.S, Bed Locations: American
Why Americans are obsessed with peanut butter
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Natalie Rice | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
Skippy was the leading peanut butter brand in the U.S. until 1980, a title that now belongs to Jif. Pond, that became the first brand to commercially develop peanut butter in 1920, sparking the way we eat peanut butter today. "We've launched certain innovations specifically in Asian markets to help enable that type of cooking use for peanut butter. Domestically, Americans eat an average of 4.25 pounds of peanut butter per capita, a figure that increased temporarily during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the National Peanut Board. As the family came together in the middle of the day, we saw that it introduced this love and affection for peanut butter to children who will hopefully carry that love and affection for peanut butter into [their] lifetime," he added.
Persons: Skippy, Joseph Rosefield, Peter Pan, Matt Smith, Circana, Costco's Kirkland, Smucker's, Jif, Smith, Rebecca Scheidler, they've, Ryan Christofferson, Christofferson, aren't, they're, Bob Parker, It's, it's, We've, Parker, Domestically, , Scheidler Organizations: Equity Research, Stifel Financial Corp, Hormel Foods Corp, Post, Holdings, Foods, Hormel Foods, Spam, Unilever, Peanut Board, FDA, Hormel, National Peanut Board Locations: Jif, U.S, Chicago, Smucker, Uncrustables, Longmont , Colorado, McCalla , Alabama, Mexico, Canada, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBusiness deposits need to be insured across the industry, says Stifel's Ron KruszewskiRon Kruszewski, chairman and CEO Of Stifel Financial, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss government intervention in deposit insurance, First Republic Bank's mounting financial troubles, and Stifel's venture banking expansion.
Insiders in the banking sector snapped up shares of their own companies in what could be a show of faith as the unfolding crisis sent stocks sharply lower. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate Capital prompted regulators to provide emergency rescue actions that calmed immediate funding concerns. Stephens Bank said about 40% of banks in its coverage have disclosed insider purchases since March 6. A total of 11 insiders at Valley National Bancorp bought shares in the past two weeks, including purchases by its CEO and several directors. PacWest shares have rebounded 9% this week, but are still down 63% this month.
The banking crisis drove regional bank stocks sharply lower this week, but many insiders took advantage of the turmoil to scoop up shares of their own institutions in what may prove a vote of confidence. Shares of regional banks slumped as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank left investors worried that other regional banks might face similar balance sheet issues, a possible mismatch between long-dated assets and short-dated liabilities. Regional banks had regained some ground Thursday in anticipation of a group of 11 banks stepping in to First Republic by depositing $30 billion for at least 120 days . Charles Schwab Notably, Charles Schwab CEO Walt Bettinger bought 50,000 shares Tuesday, worth nearly $3 million, for his personal account. Valley National Bancorp Ira Robbins (CEO) bought 5,000 shares Wednesday Jennifer Steans (Director) bought 150,000 shares Tuesday Eric Edelstein (Director) bought 20,000 shares Tuesday Melissa Schultz (Director) bought 15,000 shares Tuesday Jeffrey Wilks (Director) bought 8,000 shares Tuesday Marc Lenner (Director) bought 5,000 shares Tuesday Suresh Sani (Director) bought 5,000 shares Tuesday Valley National Bancorp saw a rush of insider buying this week, including purchases by its CEO and several directors.
But many companies adapted, structuring deals to sidestep market volatility and minimize financing costs. Deal advisers expect M&A to pick up in 2023 following last year’s slump, though when that will happen remains an open question. That is especially true in the technology and healthcare sectors, where deals for high-growth companies are most common, she said. In addition to macroeconomic pressures, companies faced a tougher regulatory environment in 2022, with antitrust enforcers globally applying greater scrutiny to large transactions. Demand for such facilities in the U.S. jumped 17% in 2022 through Dec. 29 compared with the full-year 2021, to $317.3 billion, according to Dealogic.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStifel CEO Ron Kruszewski: If I ran a crypto fund, I would welcome regulationRon Kruszewski, Stifel Financial chairman and CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his op-ed to Congress regarding the FTX downfall, the regulatory infrastructure applicable to crypto, and more.
Following the 2007-09 financial crisis when Democrats cracked down on banks, lenders have typically looked to business-friendly Republicans for support in Congress. And of the top-20 congressional recipients of bank PAC donations this cycle, 10 are Democrats compared with six in 2020, three in 2018, and one ahead of the 2016 election. Reuters GraphicsThe shift in giving patterns shows how banks are rethinking their allegiances amid increased political partisanship. To be sure, the party in power commonly enjoys a bounce in donations and banks are also spreading their bets ahead of a tightening contest, said Ballentine and the other sources. Nine of the top 10 recipients of industry donations are Republicans, including Representative Patrick McHenry who is likely to chair the House finance panel if Republicans win that chamber.
The line-up includes the CEOs of the four largest U.S. banks: JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, Bank of America's Brian Moynihan, Citi's Jane Fraser and Wells Fargo's Charles Scharf. They will be joined by USBancorp (USB.N) CEO Andy Cecere, PNC Financial (PNC.N) CEO William Demchak, and Truist Financial CEO William Rogers, who run the country's largest regional lenders. That's a message the banks' executives, lobbyists, and trade groups have conveyed during a marathon of private meetings with key lawmakers over the past few weeks, the sources said. But bank executives are also wary of growing criticism from Republicans, traditionally allies who have pushed back against heavy regulation, over what they see as Wall Street's increasingly liberal leanings on environment and social issues. While executives faced some critical questions from Republicans on such issues last year, the pressure will be greater this time, said analysts.
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