ORLANDO, Florida, June 30 (Reuters) - Britain has an inflation problem, but imagine how much worse it would be were it not for the strong pound?
But of all the factors pushing up UK inflation, including some that are unique to Britain's economy, labor market and cost of doing business as a consequence of Brexit, a weak exchange rate is not one of them.
Indeed, sterling's value on a real effective exchange rate (REER) basis is the highest it has been since the Brexit vote.
"UK inflation would indeed be even higher if sterling had not appreciated," Novy said.
All else being equal, and taking into account the notorious 'long and variable' lag between interest rate hikes and cooling price pressures, UK inflation could come down pretty quickly next year.
Persons:
Liz Truss's, Dennis Novy, Novy, BoE, turvy, Alan Ruskin, Ruskin, Goldman Sachs, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis
Organizations:
Bank of England, Reuters, University of Warwick, Brexit, Deutsche Bank, Thomson
Locations:
ORLANDO, Florida, Britain, Ukraine