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More consequential, however, was the stagnant or shrinking turnout in these cities, which — coupled with turnout growth in Republican counties across the blue wall — drove Trump’s victory. While the number of voters throughout the rest of Michigan grew by 2.6%, the number in Detroit fell by 4%. NBC News Decision DeskThe third large blue wall city is Milwaukee, which makes up about 60% of Milwaukee County’s population. Even though turnout grew slightly overall in the city, just over half of precincts (58%) experienced a turnout decrease. Comparing Milwaukee’s sluggish turnout to Dane County — which is Wisconsin’s other large Democratic county, where turnout increased by over 6% — helps to show how different demographics may explain turnout changes.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Pennsylvania —, Kamala Harris’s, Harris ’, Milwaukee County , Wisconsin —, Harris, Joe Biden, Wayne, Biden, Trump, Dane County, Dane, Dane County’s, Detroit —, Joe Biden’s Organizations: NBC, Democratic, Republican, Dane County, Milwaukee, Wisconsin Locations: Michigan , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Wayne County , Michigan, Detroit, Philadelphia County , Pennsylvania, Milwaukee County , Wisconsin, Philadelphia, Wayne County's, Michigan, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Dane, Milwaukee’s, Dane County

The chart below shows the difference between Trump’s vote percentage in 2020 and his percentage in 2024 in Pennsylvania precincts. Dots above the dotted black line are precincts where Trump out-performed his vote percentage four years ago. Most precincts in Pennsylvania shifted toward Trump, with the biggest shifts coming in areas where he won 20% to 30% of the vote in 2020. While Harris and Biden both won this region comfortably, Harris’ vote margin was nearly 120,000 votes smaller than Biden’s. The map on the left shows Philadelphia precincts according to who won that precinct.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Trump’s overperformance, Harris, Harris ’, Biden Organizations: NBC, Republicans, Democrats, Trump Locations: Pennsylvania, Trump, Philadelphia, Harris, That’s, Center City

That’s when Election Day turns into election night, and each state starts reporting its vote totals. Virginia is an example of a state that usually has a geography-driven red mirage early on election night. Another factor that can cause vote mirages is partisan differences by vote mode — mail ballots, early in-person votes, Election Day in-person votes, and so on. This will produce a vote mirage if there are partisan differences between the earliest-returned mail ballots and the later-returned ones. As Election Day votes were reported in the next few hours of election night, the size of the blue mirage shrunk to about 3.5 points.

Persons: That’s, ”, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Donald Trump’s, Kyrsten Sinema, Trump, Ann Arbor, Clark, Clark’s Organizations: North Carolina —, Republican, Washington , D.C, Democratic, Democrat, NBC, Trump, Biden, Senate Locations: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona , Nevada, California, Virginia, Fairfax, Washington ,, Fairfax County, Arizona, Maricopa County, Atlanta, Pennsylvania, Democratic Philadelphia, Allegheny, Philadelphia, Michigan, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Ann, Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Nevada, Las Vegas

In 2020, election week replaced election night: Joe Biden wasn’t declared the winner until Saturday. The truth is the Decision Desk cannot know until election night which scenario will unfold, regardless of how carefully we have analyzed the polls, early vote, and other election-related data. One thing is clear: The days of projecting a winner on election night itself are almost certainly over. North Carolina has a similar pattern in how it reports out the vote, with 99% of the vote counted by midnight in past elections. And unlike some other close states, it wasn’t just because the margin was so thin.

Persons: It's, Joe Biden wasn’t, Joe Biden’s, let’s, John Fetterman, —, Stephen Pettigrew Organizations: NBC, Electoral College, Wednesday, Philadelphia, Senate, Congressional, NBC News Locations: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Allegheny, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Nebraska’s, Nebraska, Nevada

Nearly all of those jurisdictions provide multiple vote reports (updates to the vote count) on election night and in the following days. In the November 2020 election, NBC News received over 88,000 updates to its vote totals across 542 different races. ET that night, NBC News received just over four updates per second, on average. Since 2018, the NEP has received vote count data from Edison Research, a firm that specializes in collecting election data. What makes election results in this country trustworthy, however, are the countless fail-safes that detect and correct such mistakes.

Persons: Edison, ” Organizations: NBC News, NBC, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Edison Research Locations: Washington, New England, Clark County , Nevada, Las Vegas, Maricopa County , Arizona, Phoenix, Milwaukee County, Wisconsin

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