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☆ Here's the deflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"We are seeing [deflation] to some extent," said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics. Energy prices and electronicsGasoline prices are also "way down," Zandi said. Consumers "could get more relief there because global oil prices are soft," Zandi said. Food prices are also generally underpinned by their own unique supply-and-demand dynamics, economists said. Lower energy prices can also take pressure off food prices, as it costs less to transport and distribute food to grocery store shelves.

Persons: Stephen Brown, Mark Zandi, women's outerwear, they've, Zandi, They've, Donald Trump's, they'd, Bacon Organizations: North, Capital Economics, U.S, Moody's, Finance, CPI, Bank of America, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Consumers Locations: U.S, North America, China

☆ Here's the deflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

It means that, in aggregate, the average prices of goods and services are rising, just more slowly. Where prices have deflatedFor example, prices have declined by about 5% for furniture and bedding and 3% for appliances since August 2023, according to CPI data. Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Airline fares have declined about 1% over the past year, according to CPI data. Grocery prices have fallen for items such as apples, potatoes, ham, coffee, rice, seafood and bananas, according to CPI data.

Persons: Stephen Brown, it's, Sarah House, They've, women's outerwear, Brown Organizations: North, Capital Economics, Finance, Social Security, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, International Air Transport Association Locations: U.S, North America, Wells Fargo, China

☆ How investors can prepare for lower interest rates: It's 'like getting a haircut,' advisor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Lower interest rates are "generally positive for stocks," said Marguerita Cheng, a CFP and chief executive of Blue Ocean Global Wealth, based in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Considerations for cash, bonds and stocksFalling interest rates generally means investors can expect lower returns on their "safer" money, advisors said. High interest rates have meant investors enjoyed fairly lofty returns on these lower-risk holdings. Winnie Sun co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth PartnersHowever, such returns are expected to fall alongside declining interest rates, advisors said. "They'll be crying in six months when interest rates are a lot lower," she said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Harnik, Winnie Sun, Lee Baker, Powell, Stephen Brown, Marguerita Cheng, Sun, Powell didn't, Ted Jenkin, Carolyn McClanahan Organizations: Getty, Sun Group Wealth Partners, Financial Advisors, Finance, North, Capital Economics, Blue, Sun Group Wealth, Planning Partners Locations: Irvine , California, Atlanta, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, North America, Gaithersburg , Maryland, Jacksonville , Florida

☆ Stock market today: US indexes extend plunge after surprise unemployment spike and jobs miss
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell after a weak July jobs report raised concerns of a slowing economy. The US added 114,000 jobs in July, below estimates of 175,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%. Intel and Amazon's weak earnings reports also contributed to Friday's stock market decline. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly rose to 4.3% from 4.1%, its highest level since October 2021. The 10-Year US Treasury yield plunged nearly 20 basis points to a 2024 low of 3.80% immediately after the jobs report was released.

Persons: —, Stephen Brown Organizations: Intel, Service, Treasury, Capital Economics, Federal, CME, Amazon Locations: payrolls

☆ High inflation is largely not Biden's or Trump's fault, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The Federal Reserve, which acts independently from the Oval Office, was slow to act to contain hot inflation, for example. That Biden is seen as stoking high inflation is due somewhat to optics: he took office in early 2021, around the time inflation spiked notably, economists said. "In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. At a high level, hot inflation is largely an issue of mismatched supply and demand. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and several goods from China, which Biden largely kept intact.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Justin Sullivan, Trump, Biden, David Wessel, Mark Zandi, Wu Shaoyang, Wessel, Zandi, Stephen Brown, Eric Baradat, —, Michael Strain, Strain, Jerome Powell, Olivier Douliery Organizations: CNN, Getty, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump, Hutchins, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Qingdao Port, International Monetary Fund, North, Capital Economics, American, Afp, American Enterprise Institute, Federal, . Federal Locations: Atlanta, U.S, Ukraine, Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, North America, Washington, It's

☆ Is inflation Biden's or Trump's fault? The answer isn't so simple, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

"He caused the inflation," Trump said of Biden during the June 27 debate. "He decimated the economy, absolutely decimated the economy," Biden said. 'Neither Trump nor Biden is to blame'Global events beyond Trump's or Biden's control wreaked havoc on supply-and-demand dynamics in the U.S. economy, fueling higher prices, economists said. "In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and several goods from China, which Biden largely kept intact.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Andrew Harnik, Trump, Biden, David Wessel, Mark Zandi, Mario Tama, Wessel, Zandi, Stephen Brown, —, Michael Strain, Strain Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump, Hutchins, Brookings Institution, Finance, Social Security, Medicare, Moody's, Port, International Monetary Fund, North, Capital Economics, American, American Enterprise Institute, Federal, U.S Locations: Atlanta, U.S, Ukraine, China, Port of Los Angeles, San Pedro , California, North America, It's

☆ Here's the deflation breakdown for April 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Consumers have largely seen prices deflate for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, economists said. They've also declined for some groceries and other things, such as travel, according to the consumer price index. Physical goods prices have deflated in all but one month since May 2023, for example. watch nowThe U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Downward pressure on goods prices has waned a bit in recent months as supply-and-demand dynamics have normalized, economists said.

Persons: Oscar Wong, They've, they've, Michael Pugliese, Stephen Brown, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Hayley Berg, Hopper, There's, Brown Organizations: Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, North, Capital Economics, Finance, GameStop, AMC, U.S, Federal Reserve, Canadian, Moody's, Airlines Locations: Wells Fargo, North America, U.S

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for April 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

That increase is largely due to dynamics in the market for crude oil, which is refined into gasoline, economists said. Annual housing inflation declined to 5.5% in April from 5.7% in March. Shelter and gasoline inflation combined contributed more than 70% of the monthly CPI increase for all items, according to the BLS. Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — such as entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation. Wage growth has been one contributor to services inflation, for example, economists said.

Persons: Grace Cary, That's, Mark Zandi, we're, Zandi, Michael Pugliese, Trump, Stephen Brown, Pugliese Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, Moody's Analytics, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Finance, GameStop, AMC, Biden, North, Capital Economics, Supply Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America

☆ Live Updates: The April Jobs Report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Lydia Depillis | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

PinnedIt’s been a hot spring for the American labor market, and while the summer forecast is milder, it’s not clear when the cool-down will begin. The last three months have seen an upswing in job creation, bending what had been a bumpy but definite downtrend since the post-pandemic resurgence. Does that mean the labor market is taking off again without ever having touched down? Workers are quitting their jobs at even lower rates than they were in 2019. “You don’t have that cost of onboarding and starting over again if you can hold on to them.”

Persons: It’s, ”, Stephen Brown, Belinda Román, “ Organizations: Labor Department, North, Capital Economics, Institute for Supply Management, National Federation of Independent, Workers, St, Mary’s University Locations: North America, San Antonio

☆ The surprising history of the barcode
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Jordan Frith | Clemson University | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The bull’s-eye barcode introduced in Woodland and Silver’s 1949 patent. Despite being the first barcode to be officially adopted by an industry, the multicolored design of the Kartrak symbol is now just a footnote in history. The seven barcode symbol finalists displayed in the official internal reports of the symbol selection committee. The bull’s-eye barcode, after all, was the original barcode symbol, and RCA was a powerful company that had invested significant resources in developing the technology. RCA’s main competitor was a latecomer to the battle for barcode dominance: the IBM symbol invented in the early 1970s by George Laurier.

Persons: They’ve, I’ve, Becker, Bredel, Joseph Woodland, Bernard Silver, Theodore H, Maiman, Kartrak, Carecogn, George Laurier, Stephen Brown, ’, Jordan Frith Organizations: CNN, Stony Brook University, RCA, Litton, IBM, Communication, Clemson University Locations: They’re, Woodland, Troy , Ohio, Clemson , South Carolina

☆ Downturn in Canada's economy seen deepening if US growth fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Canadian central bank expects that the economy will avoid a recession, and last month forecast growth of 0.8% for both the third and fourth quarters. Since then, preliminary data has indicted a shallow economic contraction for a second straight quarter in the third quarter. Analysts say that if U.S. activity slows, then the Canadian economy could shrink in the current quarter as well. BMO projects that U.S. growth will slow to 0.9% in the fourth quarter and that Canada's economy will shrink 1%. The potential for further weakening in the Canadian economy is already evident in money markets.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Karl Schamotta, Sal Guatieri, Stephen Brown, Brown, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Roberts Bank, REUTERS, Rights TORONTO, Bank of, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta's, BMO, North, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Delta, British Columbia, Canada, United States, Bank of Canada, Canadian, U.S, sniffles, North America

☆ Where key issues stand as UAW closes in on extended strikes against GM, Ford and Stellantis
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Headline economic issues and benefits such as hourly pay, retirement benefits, cost-of-living adjustments, wage progression and work-life balance remain central to the discussions. Here's a general overview of where the union and companies stand on key issues. Wage tiers — putting autoworkers into distinct pay ranges or classifications — is a tricky, moving target. The companies and union have defined tiers differently during past negotiations as well as during the talks this year. UAW leaders are specifically concerned with vehicle production commitments at Stellantis, which has proposed closing, selling or consolidating 18 facilities.

Persons: Ryan Sullivan, Chris Sanders, Stone, Casey Miner, Kennedy R, Barbee, Stephen Brown, Sarah Rice, Shawn Fain, Mark Reuss, there's, wouldn't, GM Organizations: United Auto Workers, Jeep, Getty, DETROIT, Detroit, UAW, General Motors, Ford Motor, Union, Media, GM, Ford Locations: Toledo , Ohio, Michigan , Ohio, Missouri, Wells Fargo, Here's, Stellantis

OTTAWA, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Canada is not trying to provoke India by suggesting it was linked to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader, but wants New Delhi to address the issue properly, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday. "The prime minister hasn't provided any facts. We need to have the evidence that allowed the prime minister to come to the conclusions yesterday," Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre told reporters. [1/5]Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during Question Period in the House of Commons, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada September 19, 2023. New Delhi, which urged Ottawa to act against anti-Indian elements, has long been unhappy over Sikh separatist activity in Canada.

Persons: Justin Trudeau, Trudeau, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, hasn't, Pierre Poilievre, Blair Gable, Balraj, Trudeau's, Mukhbir Singh, Stephen Brown, Singh, Nijjar, David Ljunggren, Steve Scherer, Susan Heavey, Jonathan Oatis, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Conservative, Ottawa, Conservative Party, Canada, U.S, Canada's, REUTERS, Canadian Broadcasting Corp, Indian, Sikh Organization of Canada, National Council of, State Department, Thomson Locations: OTTAWA, Canada, India, New Delhi, British Columbia, Canadian, Ottawa , Ontario, Ottawa, India's, Punjab, Pakistan, Australia, Britain

The second-quarter reading was far lower than the Bank of Canada's (BoC's) forecast for a 1.5% annualized GDP growth as well as the 1.2% gain expected by analysts. The quarterly slowdown was largely due to declines in housing investment and smaller inventory accumulation as well as slower international exports and household spending, Statistics Canada said. The central bank hiked its benchmark overnight rate to a 22-year-high of 5.0% in July, the tenth increase since March of last year. The high interest rate environment has coincided with falling housing investment, which recorded its fifth consecutive quarterly decrease in the three months ended in June. The housing investment decline was led by a sharp drop in new construction as well as a fall in renovation activities, Statscan said.

Persons: Stephen Brown, Andrew Kelvin, Statscan, downwardly, Doug Porter, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Nivedita Balu, Mark Porter Organizations: Bank of Canada's, North, Capital Economics, Bank of Canada, Statistics, BoC, Reuters, TD Securities, Money, Canadian, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: OTTAWA, North American, Statistics Canada, Canada

☆ Canadian economy set to show marked slowdown in second quarter, giving central bank cause to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-27 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Condominium and office towers are seen on the mountain-backed skyline of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada September 30, 2020. The GDP report will be the last major piece of domestic data before the Canadian central bank makes its next policy decision on Sept. 6. The central bank has said it would study economic data closely before determining whether it raises interest rates further. The BoC has projected 1.5% growth for the third quarter, matching its second-quarter estimate. Some argue that the composition of growth in the second-quarter data, including the split between internal and external demand, could also be a consideration.

Persons: Jennifer Gauthier, Carlos Capistran, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Benjamin Reitzes, we've, Stephen Brown, Andrew Grantham, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Canada, BoC, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Money, North, Capital Economics, CIBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Vancouver , British Columbia, Canada, Canadian, Mexico, North America

As of January 2023, residential mortgage debt stood at C$2.08 trillion ($1.53 trillion), according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Mortgage rates tend to track moves in the bond market with a lag. At 6.79%, the five-year mortgage rate posted by major Canadian banks has climbed to its highest since November 2008, data from the Bank of Canada shows. When it is time for renewal, options for homeowners hoping to shop for better interest rates might be limited as they would have to re-qualify for the stress test at the latest interest rates with their new lender. "It certainly is going to be problematic for the Canadian economy if rates stay at this level."

Persons: that's, James Laird, Laird, Daniel Foch, Foch, Stephen Brown, Nivedita Balu, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: TORONTO, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage, Housing Corporation, Ratehub.ca, Bank of, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Greater Toronto Area, Reuters, North, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: United States, Toronto, Greater Toronto, Canada, North America

☆ Pacific Islands divided over Fukushima water release, says Cook Islands PM
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Kirsty Needham | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) chair and Prime Minister of Cook Islands, Mark Stephen Brown, speaks during the Korea-Pacific Islands Summit at the former presidential Blue House in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, May 29, 2023. Ahn Young-joon/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, chairman of the Pacific Islands bloc, said that science supported Japan's decision to pump treated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the sea, but that the region may not agree on the "complex" issue. Not all Pacific leaders had the same position and the Pacific Islands Forum may not reach a collective position, he said. The United States conducted nuclear tests in the Pacific Islands in the 1940s and 1950s, and France between 1966 and 1996. A Pacific Nuclear Free Zone was established in 1985 under a treaty that prevents the dumping of radioactive materials.

Persons: Mark Stephen Brown, Ahn Young, Mark Brown, Brown, Sitiveni Rabuka, Kirsty Needham, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Islands, Pacific Islands, presidential Blue House, Rights, Cook Islands, International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Pacific, United, Fijian, Melanesian Spearhead Group, Thomson Locations: Cook Islands, Korea, Seoul, South Korea, Japan, China, Cook, United States, France, Pacific, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

☆ Canada unexpectedly sheds jobs in July, central bank seen pausing hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Money markets see a 28% chance of a rate hike in September, down slightly from 32% before the data. Money markets see a 60% chance of another rate hike by the end of the year, down from 80% before the data. "I think their (the Bank's) conclusion from this would be that it's probably not a bad idea to pause on the rate hike front," he said by phone. While headline figures indicated some slowness, the average hourly wage for permanent employees - a figure the Bank of Canada watches closely - rose 5.0% from July 2022. "The softer labor market data support our view that the Bank is unlikely to follow through with current market pricing by raising rates further," he said.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Doug Porter, Royce Mendes, Stephen Brown, Statscan, David Ljunggren, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Statistics, The, BMO Capital Markets, U.S ., Desjardins, North, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Canadian, Statistics Canada, North America, Ottawa, Toronto

☆ Analysis: Strong economy puts Bank of Canada's 4-month rate hike pause in doubt
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation, which peaked at 8.1% last year, accelerated for the first time in 10 months in April to 4.4%, more than double the Bank of Canada's 2% target. The recent recovery in Canada's housing market is also putting pressure on prices, analysts say. "The Bank of Canada's penchant for surprising traders means that nothing can be ruled out," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Mendes said there could be more than one rate hike in the cards, and Canadians should "brace themselves for a further tightening in financial conditions this summer". "The latest round of data adds weight to our view that the Bank will need to conduct an insurance rate hike at either of its next two meetings," said Jay Zhao-Murray, FX analyst at Monex Canada.

Persons: Stephen Brown, Royce Mendes, Mendes, Macklem, Jay Zhao, Murray, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Daniel Wallis Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Bank of Canada's, North, Capital Economics, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Desjardins Group, Monex Canada, Thomson Locations: North America, United States, States

☆ Canada housing market upturn could delay shift to BoC rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The housing market's upturn comes after the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate hiking campaign last month, leaving the benchmark rate at a 15-year high of 4.50% since January. A rebound in the housing market could boost activity and contribute directly to price pressures. "The Bank of Canada at the end of the day is probably not going to be too thrilled if the housing market really starts to ramp up," said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. In addition, variable-rate borrowers have been sheltered from higher interest rates after lenders temporarily extended the period over which their debt is amortized, keeping their payments the same. But there are also tailwinds to support a recovery, including supply shortfalls, record immigration and labor market strength, analysts said.

☆ Bank of Canada rate-cut bets recede as core inflation proves sticky
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. The BoC has made greater progress in slowing inflation than some major peers, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Still, the rise in inflation expectations could be another reason for the Canadian central bank to be cautious about easing rates. The central bank has left its benchmark interest rate on hold for two straight meetings after lifting it to a 15-year high of 4.50%. Those rate hikes have contributed to inflation, by driving up mortgage borrowing costs, but the main aim is to slow the economy.

☆ TSX inches higher as Bank of Canada keeps interest rates on hold
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies TC Energy falls after U.S. regulator seeks corrective actionsTSX rises 0.5%March 8 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index edged higher on Wednesday, helped by gains in commodity-linked stocks and the banking sector after the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept interest rates on hold as expected. ET (1515 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was up 99.07 points, or 0.49%, at 20,374.61. The energy sector (.SPTTEN) gained 1.1%, while materials (.GSPTTMT) rose 1.5%. Miners, energy firms and financial stocks comprise nearly 60% of the TSX index. Among stocks, TC Energy (TRP.TO) fell 0.2% as the U.S. pipeline regulator said the oil services provider would be required to reduce operating pressure on its Keystone pipeline that spilled oil in rural Kansas in December.

☆ Bank of Canada to hold rates steady at 4.50% through this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

All 32 economists polled Feb. 24 to March 3 expect the BoC to hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on March 8. A majority forecast the BoC to keep it there for the rest of 2023, despite several more rate hikes expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the meantime, Canada inflation data are headed in the right direction. "Well, the interesting thing could be in the tone of the statement," said Brown, who expects a hawkish tone. "The Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes will eventually make their way into Canadian inflation through exchange rates...so that will certainly push the Bank of Canada to do more," said Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.

☆ BoC to raise rates by 25 bps to peak of 4.50% on Jan. 25
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Swathi Nair | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A strong majority of 90% of economists, 26 of 29, expected a quarter-point rise on Jan. 25 to 4.50%, according to a Jan. 17-20 Reuters poll, in line with interest rate futures. The BoC has hiked rates by a cumulative 400 basis points since March 2022. "Rather than raise interest rates much further, the bigger risk to our policy rate forecasts is that the Bank will probably keep rates high for longer than we currently assume." The BoC is then expected to keep its overnight rate on hold at 4.50% for the remainder of the year, poll medians showed. That is in line with a recent BoC survey which showed most firms now think a recession is likely.

☆ Is Canadian inflation on a sustainable path to 2%? Essentials offer clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Canada's consumer price index report for December, due on Tuesday, is expected to show headline inflation cooling to 6.3%, its lowest annual rate since last February, from 6.8% in November. If inflation expectations rise, it could push up wage demands, particularly in a tight labor market, leading to further price pressures. "One eye is on wage growth, which is strong but not too bad at the moment, but then this other idea (which is) on the price inflation for essentials that could keep wage demands high, as it affects inflation expectations." "If inflation slows and wage growth doesn't, then wages become more of a tailwind for inflation going forward. "What we really need to see in December is weaker price growth across the board."

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