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But the balance of the evidence from the NBC News Exit Poll suggests that Trump owes his victory to more common, less polarizing factors that drive many elections year in and year out. That included a striking shift of Latino voters into the GOP column compared with 2020 — they backed Trump by 13 points more. Women broke for Harris, 54%-44%, while men favored Trump, 54%-44% — a gap in support amounting to 22 percentage points. But in 2020, Trump performed even worse among women, losing them to Biden 57%-42%. A final factor favoring Trump: his appeal among Americans who are less attached to politics and elections:

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, —, Trump’s, ” Trump, Dobbs, coy, Harris, George W, Bush Organizations: NBC, Democratic, Voters, Trump, Biden Locations: United States

Thirty-five percent of voters said democracy mattered most to their vote, while 31% said the economy. Men and women both said the state of democracy first was their important issue, followed by the economy. Two in 10 women said abortion was the most important issue to their vote, compared to 8% of men. Abortion was the second-most important issue to Harris voters, with 2 in 10 of them saying it mattered most to their vote, followed by economy, foreign policy and immigration. Half of Trump voters said the economy was the most important issue to their vote, followed by immigration (20%), democracy (12%), abortion (6%) and foreign policy (4%).

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris Organizations: NBC, Immigration, Trump voters Locations: United States, U.S

Here’s how exit polling works, where they are conducted and how NBC News will be using the exit poll results on election night and the days after. Since 2003, Edison Research, a firm that specializes in collecting election data, has conducted exit polls on behalf of the National Election Pool. NBC News independently analyzes and reports on the exit poll results. This year, NBC News will have coverage of state exit polls in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. The NBC News Decision Desk uses some exit poll data to help project election results.

Organizations: NBC, Edison Research, ABC, CBS, CNN Locations: Arizona , Georgia, Florida , Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin, Georgia , North Carolina , Nevada, Ohio

☆ Breaking down the the yawning gender gap dividing Gen Z: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +12 min

In today’s edition, we break down our latest poll showing how Gen Z voters are viewing the presidential race in the final days. And among young voters who say they will vote in the presidential election in November, Harris leads 56%-36%, a 20-point advantage. Within Gen Z, though, there are notable divisions among different groups — and the gender gap is particularly significant. Men (46%) were more likely to say Trump has the right temperament to serve as president, compared with women (30%). Read more →Future Forward, a Democratic super PAC backing Harris, has been quietly running millions of dollars in Spanish-language ads aimed at Latino voters.

Persons: Ben Kamisar, Jonathan Allen, Kamala Harris ’, Harris, Stephanie Perry, Marc Trussler, Mara Haeger, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, that’s, Joe Biden, Read, ross, hite, ince, ake, eck, hal, sion, Harri, Shaw Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Trump, ust, eads, GOP Locations: ain

And among young voters who say they will vote in the presidential election in November, Harris leads 56%-36%, a 20-point advantage. Young women said they’ll vote for Harris over Trump by a 33-point margin. The gender differences splashed across the issues young voters say are most important to their vote. Roughly a third of young voters said they’ll pay attention to endorsements by political leaders (38%) and organizations to which they belong (31%). One-third of young voters have a positive view of Trump’s VP pick, JD Vance, and 45% have a negative view of him.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, that’s, Joe Biden, Taylor Swift, Elon Musk, Elon, Swift, Tim Walz, JD Vance, Walz, Vance Organizations: NBC, Trump, Democratic National Convention, SurveyMonkey, American, Survey

Vice President Kamala Harris still has a wide lead over former President Donald Trump among Black voters in battleground states, according to a new poll, which shows a key slice of undecided Black voters still poised to make a decision about the presidential election. The findings, from a Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion poll of 981 likely Black voters in battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — show that 84% of likely Black voters will support Harris in November and 8% say they’ll support Trump. While an overwhelming majority of Black voters overall plan to support Harris, the data shows a small shift among independents from a month ago. Black voters support Harris by large margins across all age groups, but her margin among young voters (63 points) is much smaller than her margin among older voters (82 points). Among undecided Black voters, 19% said the economy is the most important issue to their vote, followed by inflation/cost of living (14%).

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump Organizations: Black, Howard University Initiative, Public, Trump, Republicans, Harris, Howard Initiative Locations: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona , Georgia

On Nov. 5, the Decision Desk will project 610 races across all 50 states, from the presidential election to statewide and congressional contests. Early on election night, the Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether it can project uncompetitive races. When a party has gained a majority of 218 seats in the House, the Decision Desk will project control for that party. Other sources for election vote data include state and county vote computer feeds and websites, when they are available. Exit poll results are independently analyzed in real time, and NBC News calls all races as soon as the Decision Desk is fully confident in the winner.

Persons: — Organizations: NBC, NBC News, Senate, ABC, CBS, CNN, Edison Research, Reuters, The Washington Post

☆ The freebie phase of the 2024 campaign: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +9 min

Among Black voters over 50, 89% said they back Harris, but for those under 50, that figure drops to 75%. Jim Pillen and about two dozen Republican legislators on behalf of the Trump campaign as part of an effort to change how Nebraska allocates its Electoral College votes. Jim Pillen and about two dozen Republican legislators on behalf of the Trump campaign as part of an effort to change how Nebraska allocates its Electoral College votes. Read more → 💻 Hacking fallout: Iranian hackers sent material they stole from Trump’s campaign to people associated with Biden’s campaign, according to the FBI. Read more →Iranian hackers sent material they stole from Trump’s campaign to people associated with Biden’s campaign, according to the FBI.

Persons: Jonathan Allen, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Mark Robinson, he’s, Trump, ransoming, Caroline Bruckner, ” Bruckner, Harris, She’s, “, ”, Charlie Dent, Read, Adam Edelman, Alexandra Marquez Mark Robinson, Robinson, Josh Stein, Kamala Harris ’, Stephanie Perry, Curtis Bunn, undecideds, Joe, Lin, Jim, teri, Ira Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, CNN, Trump, Social, Republican, NAZI, Democratic, Black, Howard University Initiative, Public, Biden Locations: Carolina, Washington, N.C, North Carolina, Black, Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, bou

Yet while Black swing-state voters are largely lined up behind Harris, there are some important differences among subsets of the Black vote. Meanwhile, Black swing-state voters with college degrees support Harris over Trump by 73 points, while Black voters who aren’t college graduates support Harris over Trump by 68 points. Just over a quarter (26%) of men under 50 without college degrees said they’ll vote for Trump, compared with 67% who said they’ll vote for Harris. The Black voters polled most closely associated Harris with policies on abortions rights and reproductive health care (28%) and economic policies (26%). “And if they aren’t learning what Black voters are thinking, they’ll continue to be driven” by reporting and polling that doesn’t delve as deeply into Black opinion.

Persons: Kamala Harris, undecideds, Joe Biden’s, Harris, Donald Trump, Biden, “, ”, Dana Williams, ” Williams, Trump, Harris ’, they’ll Organizations: Black, Howard University Initiative, Public, Trump, Initiative, Graduate School, Howard University, Trump ., Howard Initiative Locations: Black, Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Gaza, Trump

☆ Midterm elections live updates: Pennsylvania races, New Hampshire Senate race too early to call
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Brandy Zadrozny | Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Sahil-Kapur-Headshot.Jpg | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +109 min

Share this -Link copiedWisconsin Senate and governor's races too early to call It is too early to call the Senate and gubernatorial races in Wisconsin, according to NBC News. Share this -Link copiedNew Hampshire Senate race too early to call The Senate race in New Hampshire is too early to call, according to NBC News. Share this -Link copiedPennsylvania Senate and governor races are too early to call After polls closed at 8 p.m. While Maricopa County election officials initially categorized the problem as a “hiccup,” it took hours before a solution was identified early Tuesday afternoon. In Columbus County, election officials allegedly were harassed by an “observer following one-stop workers” and photographing or filming the workers, it said.

While Maricopa County election officials initially categorized the problem as a “hiccup,” it took hours before a solution was identified early Tuesday afternoon. According to the poll, 46% of voters said their family’s financial situation is worse than it was two years ago. Civil rights groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union and the NAACP, filed a similar complaint Friday against state election officials. The app and portal had been down for part of the morning and the state's election hotline also briefly experienced issues. In Columbus County, election officials allegedly were harassed by an “observer following one-stop workers” and photographing or filming the workers, it said.

Americans named inflation and abortion as the most important issues driving their vote on Tuesday, according to the NBC News Exit Poll. Democrats care most about abortion rights, while Republicans are most concerned about inflation, according to the poll. Midterm voters are also continuing to feel pain at the pump as gas prices in the U.S. hover around $4 per gallon. More voters say Biden's policies are hurting than helpingBiden fell short in persuading voters of the merits of his administration's policies, according to the poll. Black voters are one of the few demographic groups where a majority (55%) say Biden's policies are helping the country.

By the end of Election Day, approximately 21,000 total interviews will be conducted. Civil rights groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union and the NAACP, filed a similar complaint Friday against state election officials. The app and portal had been down for part of the morning and the state's election hotline also briefly experienced issues. In Columbus County, election officials allegedly were harassed by an “observer following one-stop workers” and photographing or filming the workers, it said. Share this -Link copiedSunny weather in most battleground states on Election Day It’s a bright and sunny Election Day in many battleground states!

How the midterm election outcome could impact Biden's agenda Nov. 8, 2022 02:02 Read the full story here. Civil rights groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union and the NAACP, filed a similar complaint Friday against state election officials. The app and portal had been down for part of the morning and the state's election hotline also briefly experienced issues. In Columbus County, election officials allegedly were harassed by an “observer following one-stop workers” and photographing or filming the workers, it said. Share this -Link copiedSunny weather in most battleground states on Election Day It’s a bright and sunny Election Day in many battleground states!

“We implore voters and members of the media to allow election officials to do their work.” The process is painstaking. In New Hanover, students allegedly were harassed while walking to class from a voting site, and an observer allegedly “angrily” confronted an election official, the board reported. “There are 8,800 election jurisdictions and we see issues pop up every election day,” the official said, citing low-level cyberattacks against election websites or accidental website outages as potential examples. Share this -Link copiedSunny weather in most battleground states on Election Day It’s a bright and sunny Election Day in many battleground states! Karamo sued Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey last week to toss absentee ballots unless voters present identification, alleging election law violations regarding the counting of the ballots.

Wisconsin judge won’t order sequestering of absentee ballotsMADISON, Wis. — A Wisconsin judge on Monday, less than 14 hours before polls opened, refused to order that military absentee ballots be pulled aside and sequestered until it can be verified that they were cast legally, saying that would be a “drastic remedy” that could disenfranchise voters. The Republican chair of the Wisconsin Assembly’s elections committee along with a veterans group and other voters sued on Friday, seeking a court order to sequester the ballots. Waukesha County Circuit Judge Michael Maxwell denied that request for a temporary restraining order in a ruling from the bench following a two-hour hearing Monday afternoon. “That just seems to be a drastic remedy,” he said of sequestering the ballots. Read the full story here.

Early on election night, the NBC News Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether uncompetitive races can be called. No race is projected until the Decision Desk is at a minimum 99.5% confident of the winner. What kinds of calls and characterizations does the Decision Desk make? The Decision Desk will not use this characterization until we have statistical confidence that the race will be this close. When a party has gained a majority of seats in the Senate, the Decision Desk will project control for that party.

Nationally, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate if the election for House were being held today and 49% said they would vote for the Republican candidate. A deeper analysis of state-level results reveal concerns for Democrats in several critical states where the party is trying to gain or hold Senate seats. For voters who identify as Democrat or Republican, their ballots break down as expected — 97% of Democrats say they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate and 97% of Republicans say they’ll vote for the Republican. There are differences across party lines, and critically, priorities of independent voters are closer to those of Republicans than Democrats. Analyses of subgroups of states were weighted according to population targets in those states.

A month before the midterm elections, most Americans say abortion is important to their vote. Ninety percent of Americans who identify as Democrats or leaning Democrat, 78 % of independents and 74 % of Republican and Republican-leaning Americans say abortion matters at the voting booth. Nine in 10 Americans think a pregnant woman should be able to legally have an abortion if her health is seriously endangered by the pregnancy. Aggregating the states where abortion is legal, 88 % of Americans think abortion should be legal in the case of rape or incest. Two-thirds of Americans also said they think abortion regulations should be determined by public referendum rather than by elected officials or judges.

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