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☆ ECB will cut rates in October but not to commit to a forward path: economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB will cut rates in October but not commit to a forward path, Goldman economist saysJari Stehn, chief Europe economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the European Central Bank's October meeting and the growth outlook for the euro area.

Persons: Goldman, Jari Stehn, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Central Locations: Europe

☆ Bank of England rate decision 'going to be close,' Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of England rate decision 'going to be close,' Goldman Sachs saysJari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, says the Bank of England's monetary policy decision is "going to be close" but suggests that a rate cut may win out.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jari Stehn Organizations: Email Bank of, Bank

☆ With odds of a Trump win rising, here's what it could mean for Europe's economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Former US President Donald Trump during a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Florida, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. "Trump's re-election would thus pose a significant downside risk to our otherwise constructive growth forecast for the Euro area." Trade policy uncertainty, added defense and security pressures and spillover effects from U.S. domestic policies on, for example, taxes could impact Europe, they explained. Trade tensionsTrump's trade policy, and the uncertainty around it, could be one factor that impacts Europe's economy, just as it did during his last presidency, analysts Stehn and Moberly said. In 2018 and 2019, uncertainty about trade policy reduced industrial production in the euro area by around 2%, they estimated.

Persons: Donald Trump, Eva Marie Uzcategui, Goldman Sachs, Jari Stehn, James Moberly, Trump's, Trump, Joe Biden, Moberly Organizations: Trump National Doral Golf Club, Bloomberg, Getty, White, Trump, European Union, EU, . Defense, NATO, U.S, Stehn Locations: Miami , Florida, Europe, Pennsylvania, U.S, Germany, Stehn, Moberly, Ukraine

☆ Labour does not have much headroom in terms of fiscal changes, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabour does not have much headroom in terms of fiscal changes, economist saysJari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the economic and fiscal landscape in the U.K. as Labour wins the 2024 general election.

Persons: Jari Stehn, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Labour

☆ Bernanke Review: How the former Fed boss could shake up the Bank of England
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke speaks during a discussion on "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" during the Thomas Laubach Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. LONDON — The Bank of England will on Friday publish a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke that could lead to significant changes in its monetary policymaking. The review was launched last summer to assess the Bank's struggles to accurately project the huge global spike in inflation, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The first deals with how the Bank of England communicates uncertainty around its central forecasts. The "fan chart" is the Bank's long-held method of presenting the probability distribution that forms the basis of its inflation forecasts.

Persons: Ben Bernanke, BOE, Goldman Sachs, Bernanke, Goldman, Jari Stehn, James Moberly, Stehn Organizations: Federal Reserve, Thomas Laubach Research, Federal Reserve Board, LONDON, Bank of, Federal, MPC, Bank of England, Bank Locations: Washington , DC, Bank of England, Ukraine

☆ European Central Bank to cut rates in the third quarter of 2024, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEuropean Central Bank to cut rates in the third quarter of 2024, economist saysJari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the path ahead for European Central Bank monetary policy in 2024 and the economic outlook for Europe.

Persons: Jari Stehn, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Central Bank, European Central Bank Locations: Europe

Yet in Europe, sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. Two-year Treasury yields were down 3.5 basis points in London trade at 5.07%, having risen sharply on Tuesday, when five- and 10-year Treasury yields reached 16-year highs. World stock markets were edging higher ahead of the Fed rate decision. UK gilt yields fell sharply as investors slashed bets for a rate hike on Thursday, with two-year yields last down over 14 bps at 4.85% . "Combined with their recent dovish commentary, we now expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged tomorrow and lower our forecast for the terminal policy rate to 5.25%," Stehn and co. added.

Persons: DAX, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Lee Hardman, Sterling underperformed, Goldman Sachs, Sven Jari Stehn, Stehn, Masato Kanda, Eugene Low, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Brent, Federal, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, MPC, Monetary, Bank of, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, London, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, China, Singapore

☆ Goldman Sachs cuts BoE terminal rate view to 5.5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A general view of the Bank of England (BoE) building, the BoE confirmed to raise interest rates to 1.75%, in London, Britain, August 4, 2022. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska//File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 18 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the Bank of England's (BoE) terminal rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, after predicting that the central bank would hold interest rates steady at its November meeting against an earlier forecast of a hike. The BoE raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a 15-year peak of 5.25% in early August, its fourteenth back-to-back increase, and warned that borrowing costs were likely to stay elevated for some time. Economists led by Sven Jari Stehn said in a note dated Friday that they still expect the BoE to hike rates by 25 bps at its September Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting next week. Reporting by Aniruddha Ghosh in BengaluruOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BoE, Maja Smiejkowska, Goldman Sachs, Sven Jari Stehn, Aniruddha Ghosh Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Bank of England's, MPC, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Bengaluru

☆ Bank of England's next move divides economists as data paints a mixed picture
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, attends the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Press Conference, at the Bank of England, London, Britain, February 2, 2023. Pool | ReutersLONDON — Market expectations are split over the Bank of England's next monetary policy move on Wednesday, as policymakers near a tipping point in their fight against inflation. The other 38% of market participants expect a second consecutive 50 basis point hike, after the central bank surprised markets with a bumper increase in June. watch nowThe British economy has proven surprisingly resilient, despite a run of 13 consecutive rate hikes from the Bank of England. "While core inflation surprised to the downside in June, services inflation momentum remains strong.

Persons: Andrew Bailey, Goldman Sachs, James Moberly, Ibrahim Quadri, Jari Stehn, BoE, Goldman, —, Abbas Khan, Mariano Cena, Silvia Ardagna, Matthew Swannell, Paul Hollingsworth, Andrew Bailey's Organizations: Bank of England, Press, Bank of, Monetary, British Retail Consortium, MPC, Fed, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PMI, Bank of England's, Barclays, BNP Paribas Locations: London, Britain, Sintra

☆ UBS could see big gains after forced Credit Suisse merger. Big U.S. banks may also be winners, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

UBS ' acquisition of Credit Suisse could lead to big gains for the Swiss bank. UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs, or around $3.2 billion, in a forced deal announced Sunday. As part of the deal, Credit Suisse shareholders receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares they hold. But Barclays analyst Amit Goel wasn't so sure, cutting his view on European banks to neutral from positive on Monday. Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo, meanwhile, sees opportunity for U.S. banks coming out of the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse.

☆ Goldman Sachs, other banks expect smaller hike from ECB in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Subhadeep Chakravarty | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and at least two other banks expect the European Central Bank to deliver a smaller quarter-point hike in May, as it grapples with stress in the banking sector and high core inflation. Goldman's terminal rate forecast for the ECB now stands at 3.5%, down from 3.75% expected previously when it forecasted a 50-bps raise in May. For Morgan Stanley, a smaller May hike expectation leaves the peak rate forecast at 3.75% by July, down from 4% expected earlier. The changes in forecast follow the ECB's decision on Thursday to press ahead with a 50-bps hike in its deposit facility rate, taking it to 3%. Traders see the ECB rate peaking at around 3.23% by September or October.

☆ Goldman Sachs and other banks expect smaller hike from ECB in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Subhadeep Chakravarty | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs and two other banks expect the European Central Bank to deliver a smaller quarter-point hike in May as it grapples with stress in the banking sector and high core inflation. Goldman earlier expected the ECB to deliver a 50 bps hike in May. The Wall Street bank's terminal rate forecast now stands at 3.5%, down from 3.75% previously. Traders see the ECB rate peaking at around 3.23% by September or October. Meanwhile, J.P.Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Swedish Bank SEB expect the ECB to deliver a 50 bps hike in May but warned of downside risks to their forecasts given current market volatility and inflation remaining well above the central bank's target.

☆ Goldman Sachs cuts ECB rate hike forecast to 25bps in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate for an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in May to 25 basis points after the central bank raised rates to fight inflation amid calls to rein in policy tightening. The investment bank reduced its estimate from the earlier forecast of 50 bps, pushing its ECB terminal rate forecast to 3.5% from 3.75% previously. The revised forecast comes after the ECB raised interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday. The investment bank anticipates the ECB will continue to be in tightening mode despite volatility in financial markets and expects Europe's core inflation to remain firm in coming months. Reporting by Subhadeep Chakravarty; Editing by Sonia CheemaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Goldman Sachs no longer expects recession in euro zone in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The euro sign is photographed in front of the former head quarter of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, April 9, 2019. REUTERS/Kai PfaffenbachJan 10 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday it expects the euro zone economy to grow by 0.6% this year, compared with its previous forecast of a contraction, thanks to a fall in natural gas prices and the reopening of China's borders. Euro zone inflation is expected to be around 3.25% at the end of 2023 compared with 4.50% forecast earlier, the economists said. In December, consumer price growth across euro zone slowed to 9.2% from 10.1% a month earlier, Eurostat data showed last week. For the UK, Goldman sees a smaller contraction of 0.7% in GDP, compared with an earlier expectation for it to shrink by 1%, helped by lower wholesale gas prices.

☆ Goldman Sachs: Energy crisis will push euro zone into 'shallow' recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs: Energy crisis will push euro zone into 'shallow' recessionSven Jari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, says the energy crisis will push the euro zone into a "fairly shallow" recession next year. However, he adds that the region is "roughly" at peak inflation, with price rises expected to fall closer to 3% next year.

☆ Bank of England set for biggest rate hike in 33 years, but economists expect dovish tilt
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

New Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has scrapped the controversial tax cuts at the heart of predecessor Liz Truss' fiscal policy agenda, meaning fiscal and monetary policy are no longer pulling in opposite directions. Deutsche Bank also expects a split vote on Thursday in favor of a 75-basis-point hike, taking the key interest rate to 3%. Deutsche Bank now expects the Bank Rate to reach 4.5% by May next year, down from its previous projection of 4.75%, on account of retreating fiscal stimulus and a push toward fiscal consolidation. watch nowBank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent said in a recent speech that GDP would take a "pretty material" hit from such aggressive policy tightening. The Bank's August growth forecasts, which already pointed to a five-quarter recession, were based on a much lower Bank Rate of around 3%.

☆ Fed will raise rates close to 5% in March, outpacing Europe: Goldman Sachs economist
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will raise rates close to 5% in March, outpacing Europe: Goldman Sachs economistJari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, says major central banks will slow to 50-basis-point rises in the next round of rate hikes, and the Fed will outpace Europe by the end of this cycle.

☆ A recession looks increasingly likely. But Goldman Sachs says these stocks could beat the gloom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Central banks are relentlessly hiking interest rates to rein in inflation — even at the expense of economic growth — prompting fears of a recession. "Concerns on sticky inflation and a tight labor market have focused investor attention on implications for rising rates and recession risk. Those stocks have high and expanding cash return on capital invested and return on equity, according to the bank. BlackRock says that's now an 'obsolete' strategy Investors keen to add growth names to their portfolio could also look to Goldman's list of high growth stocks. The bank also identified high growth names that are trading at an attractive valuation, including Watches of Switzerland and Standard Chartered .

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